Interesting Non Movement Lines

Matt Rain · 10-30-08, 10:03 AM

Looking forward to check out your picks, AUSSIE.

AUSSIE_PUNTER · 10-30-08, 10:08 AM

thanks matt

winners are grinners

Lout84 · 10-30-08, 10:18 AM

Aussie, if you hit 80% sides consistently I will

With that in mind.. nobody, can hit 80% sides consistently.

Don't come on here boasting about how great you are.. why don't you just show us. A good capper doesn't need to talk himself up.

By the looks of it.. you are not even betting the sides, you are betting straight up ML! What a load of crap.

AUSSIE_PUNTER · 10-30-08, 10:34 AM

mate i multi bet but yeah i prefer single bets so i bet my way if ya dont like it dont read my tips easy

but yeah i never said it was constant but i will finish the year with +80% wins in nba/nhl/nfl/ncaa so watch and see
yes i have bad runs but not very often
a bad nite is me makeing bout $8000 australian

eidolon · 10-30-08, 10:50 AM

Originally posted by I.R.B

No, But spending $100 bucks a month to make a bigger profit is worth it. Also i cant see a tight ass betting 6k on a single game. Might i add betting that 6k blindly.. Every advantage you have at winning is higher % and a fatter pocket even a tight ass would want a fatter pocket.. Right?

too much information can cause you to 2nd guess everything, leading you to bet randomly and eventually betting the way the books want you to.

AUSSIE_PUNTER · 10-30-08, 10:53 AM

Originally posted by eidolon

too much information can cause you to 2nd guess everything, leading you to bet randomly and eventually betting the way the books want you to.

Legend4Aday · 10-30-08, 01:18 PM

DeluxeLiner · 10-30-08, 02:14 PM

Originally posted by Sforz

In my opinion, there isn't enough bets placed to really draw a conclusion about the 'sharpness' of the lines.

We are approaching 10,000 bets...I am observing the lines and seeing what happens to them.

I agree with you in that we currently do not have enough information, yet as we come closer to gametime the information we can draw from the lines becomes more clear.

DeluxeLiner · 10-30-08, 02:20 PM

Originally posted by spmurph

Hi all..I've been lurking on this board for a few weeks and am new to handicapping.

The one line (or non-line movement) that jumps out at me is PHI -7. Philly is receiving 87% of almost 8000 bets, yet the line has not budged. Curious to see how much action it would take to move it.

Spmurph, this is also a curious line.

What this is telling us is that there is enough money on Seattle to keep the line steady at -7 (it did however jump to -6.5 for a bit on Pinny, which is reverse line movement, but only half a point so it is not as significant).

I am will also keep track of this game as well and observe any movement. If pinny moves the line back to 6.5, and it stays there I will probably hammer the 7 for seattle at a slower moving book.

Sforz · 10-30-08, 04:38 PM

Originally posted by etothep

What's the exact number of bets where one should say, ok that's enough bets on a game to draw a conclusion about the 'sharpness' of the lines?

LT suggested 10,000.

spmurph · 10-30-08, 06:45 PM

Originally posted by I.R.B

The money is being matched on the low % side..

How can you be sure of that? I know that seems like the logical assumtion but if that is the case then why are we not assumming more money is moving to the lower % side when there is RLM?

LT Profits · 10-30-08, 10:10 PM

Originally posted by spmurph

How can you be sure of that? I know that seems like the logical assumtion but if that is the case then why are we not assumming more money is moving to the lower % side when there is RLM?

We ARE assuming that. The reason RLM is considered sharp money is becasue more money is being bet by the lower percentage of bets, causing the move.

DeluxeLiner · 10-30-08, 10:15 PM

Seattle has moved from 7 to 6.5. We are looking at half a point RLM. Dont know if I want to hammer it though because the 7 is significant.

Legend4Aday · 10-31-08, 01:22 AM

spmurph · 10-31-08, 05:18 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

We ARE assuming that. The reason RLM is considered sharp money is becasue more money is being bet by the lower percentage of bets, causing the move.

Ok, I got ya. Thanks for the clarification. Another question though and, sorry if this has been asked a million times, but why are we assuming the large amount of money bet on the side with the lower percentage is sharp money?

LT Profits · 10-31-08, 06:53 AM

Basically, if squares make large bets, they'll lose more often that the real sharps and won't be able to make many more large bets. Thus, the majority (not ALL, but close enough) of the heavy action comes from sharps.