Interesting Non Movement Lines

[DeluxeLiner]

This week I have noticed two games that seem very interesting regarding line movement (or non movement)

@Oakland Raiders (+3) vs. Atlanta Falcons (Non-movement with 77% on Falcons)
@St Louis Rams (+3) vs. Arizona Cardinals (Non-movement with 78% on Cards)
(%s are from Bet tracker)

These two games seem very similar in that they are each receiving considerable action on the road favorite yet the line is not moving. The 3, is very significant though because moving off of it is a very big move.

My initial look at both these games would lead me to believe that both these road teams would cover. However, the Raiders have been the play at home of recently when they were ReverseLM with the Jets game. St. Louis has also made quite a turn around after they switched coaches, and I am not so sure about the consistency of Arizona on the road. The only team Arizona beat on the road was there first game against the miserable 49's.

So hmmm...I have not pulled the trigger on either of these plays since I am not totally sure what the smart play is (if there is any) on either of these sides. Something fishy seems to be going on here and I want in on it.

[Legend4Aday]

I understand why the St. louis rams vs. Arizona Cardinals game would have sharps on St. Louis, but Atlanta shouldn't have much of a problem against Oakland... Personally I would go with St. Louis though, because I have that game 17-24 St.Louis

[The_Kid]

Take a look at the MNF game. Line has moved from +3 to +1 with 65% of the bets on the Steelers.

[eidolon]

well this thread has made my stomach turn. I had these two away teams winning...

[eidolon]

I do have to say one thing....the Falcons line has changed, but just hasn't been pushed off the great number 3... +116, down to +108 now at pinnacle for the Falcons -3

[DeluxeLiner]

well this thread has made my stomach turn. I had these two away teams winning...

I do have to say one thing....the Falcons line has changed, but just hasn't been pushed off the great number 3... +116, down to +108 now at pinnacle for the Falcons -3

I am thinking that perhaps...the odds makers feel that the line is so sharp that if the line moves in either direction the smart money will hammer the opposite side, thus they are just trying to induce money on one side or the the other by manipulating the sides price thus creating even action. I think that their might be too much hype for the surprise Falcons team. That is just a thought about why the lines are aren't moving. If my theory is correct than their is no significant edge on these games.

It is curious however that the Raiders are getting the -116 and not the popular pick Falcons.
And that the St. Louis Rams are getting -112 and the Cards, the popular pick, are getting +104.

Interesting how these games are receiving, what I perceive to be very similar action

[DeluxeLiner]

Another interesting game is the Miami road dogs in Denver. The line has stayed pretty much at 3 on Pinny (moved to 3.5 on some other books). I am thinking that the sharp money in on Miami and I have a good rationale for taking the Fins, other than I wish they werent on the road. Denver is receiving 73% of the action.

[Sforz]

In my opinion, there isn't enough bets placed to really draw a conclusion about the 'sharpness' of the lines.

[spmurph]

Hi all..I've been lurking on this board for a few weeks and am new to handicapping.

The one line (or non-line movement) that jumps out at me is PHI -7. Philly is receiving 87% of almost 8000 bets, yet the line has not budged. Curious to see how much action it would take to move it.

[I.R.B]

The money is being matched on the low % side..

[etothep]

Take a look at the MNF game. Line has moved from +3 to +1 with 65% of the bets on the Steelers.

Isn't that how the line should move with more money on the Steelers?

In my opinion, there isn't enough bets placed to really draw a conclusion about the 'sharpness' of the lines.

What's the exact number of bets where one should say, ok that's enough bets on a game to draw a conclusion about the 'sharpness' of the lines?



For comparison, the G-Men have 61% of the action & have had their line move from -7 to -9.5

[I.R.B]

It is curious however that the Raiders are getting the -116 and not the popular pick Falcons.
And that the St. Louis Rams are getting -112 and the Cards, the popular pick, are getting +104.

Interesting how these games are receiving, what I perceive to be very similar action

The bookmakers are very smart people..

[AUSSIE_PUNTER]

what is the site you watch these line moves

[Ditaln1]

The Steeler line is a correct movement. Washington opened at -3 , and there is more action on the Steelers, so the line should move down to make Washington more appealing to play .

[etothep]

what is the site you watch these line moves

http://twominutewarning.com/bettracker.htm

[AUSSIE_PUNTER]

what is the site that you find this out hook me up please

[AUSSIE_PUNTER]

is it free or what????

[I.R.B]

The Steeler line is a correct movement. Washington opened at -3 , and there is more action on the Steelers, so the line should move down to make Washington more appealing to play .

not by the % but by the money. You will rarly ever see a line move 2pts from 65%.

[I.R.B]

is it free or what????

You are betting 6k on a game and you dont no where to find these %?

[Ditaln1]

If you are looking at those games, check out the Eagles game, but it's still early in the week.

2008-11-02 PHILADELPHIA EAGLES -7 -7.0 95% 92% 97%




16:15 EST SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 43 43.0 5% 8% 3%

[AUSSIE_PUNTER]

hey i get my tips straight from vegas!!! i usally follow the public betting trend at www.horseraceingaustralia.com.au/public_betting.html

please help me if ya dont mind

[etothep]

You are betting 6k on a game and you dont no where to find these %?

But also must get verification that they're free

Can't we have a noob area that new posters must graduate from?

[I.R.B]

But also must get verification that they're free

Can't we have a noob area that new posters must graduate from?

You said it bud. Sportsinsight is the best place to veiw these % and if you're betting 6k in a day $79 a month should be no problem..

But since he wants free you can check Pregame.com & yes its free

[AUSSIE_PUNTER]

as any gambler would say money in my pocket is better then it being in someone elses so yeah maybe iam a tight ass but u dont get rich being genourse

[I.R.B]

as any gambler would say money in my pocket is better then it in someone alses so yeah maybe iam a tight ass but u dont get rich being genourse

No, But spending $100 bucks a month to make a bigger profit is worth it. Also i cant see a tight ass betting 6k on a single game. Might i add betting that 6k blindly.. Every advantage you have at winning is higher % and a fatter pocket even a tight ass would want a fatter pocket.. Right?

[AUSSIE_PUNTER]

hey mate i hit 85% nba bets 84% of nhl 79% college football iam sure iam doing fine then again take shots at me thats ok watch my tips within 2days u will be following me

[etothep]

hey mate i hit 85% nba bets 84% of nhl 79% college football iam sure iam doing fine then again take shots at me thats ok watch my tips within 2days u will be following me

Hey, you're a betting man. What odds will you give me that you don't hit close to those percentages with your posted picks?

[AUSSIE_PUNTER]

mate dont even try i would bet u under the table
trust me i know what iam doing

[element1286]

hey mate i hit 85% nba bets 84% of nhl 79% college football iam sure iam doing fine then again take shots at me thats ok watch my tips within 2days u will be following me

Good one.

[AUSSIE_PUNTER]

ok then u can all laugh but watch my post the n look who is laughing

[AUSSIE_PUNTER]

i dont wanna argue with u guy iam here to help and all you wanna do is put shit on me i dont lie and what i post i back i aint a idiot and dont post crap iam 100% for real
last year i made
nba=$32,000 for the season
nhl=$41,000 for season
nfl=$ 39,500 for season
ncaa=$ 42,432 for season
i start year with $20,000
thats a profit of $134,932 in 12 months

[element1286]

Your not going to get anyone on here that you are hitting 80% on sides.

[AUSSIE_PUNTER]

ok well watch and see mate talk is cheap but numbers dont lie
so all i ask is keep notice of what i back ok

[Ditaln1]

Your not going to get anyone on here that you are hitting 80% on sides.

That is wrong Element. I usually hit 80% on sides, but usually the losing sidfe

[AUSSIE_PUNTER]

well heres everyone chance to watch someone do it iam here to help not argue