pick San Diego -6.5 +101 over Miami

[daveheadsports]

Admittedly, San Diego under-performed early this season, and Shawne Merriman is out for the season.

Don't be misled by Miami's win over New England. It says more about New England than it does about Miami. Miami won by using a direct-snap formation that New England couldn't adjust for.

Miami QB Chad Pennington didn't beat them, he can't throw the ball downfield. Pennington wasn't the answer for the Jets. They didn't even want to keep him as a backup. He is at best a stopgap for Miami, and he is just the kind of QB that CB Antonio Cromartie will feast on.

[ezeblazin]

But the Chargers don't play defense.... too dangerous for me

[hakrjak]

The Chargers played one hell of a defense against Brett Farve and the Jets a couple weeks ago, and they didn't do bad last weekend either. This bet is a total no brainer. The only reason Miami beat the pats was because Bill Parcells knows his old Padowan Learner (Bellicheck) like nobody else. With Cassell sucking about as bad as any QB in the league, it turned into a winnable game for him.

Look for Miami to return to their old ways this week as SD blows up the scoreboard and wins by 14+ points.

I have SD -7 for 3 dimes, and I am LOVING it. My best bet of the week!

They've won for me the past 2 weeks in a row, once with a -7 line and once with a -9.
Cheers,

- Hakrjak

[LT Profits]

I think Miami is one of the best bets of the week. Playing west coast road favorites in the Eastern time zone with a 1:00 ET start may be hazzardous to your health!

[hakrjak]

Man, you are nuts. I respect your opinion and willingness to lose your money to me on this one though. The Dolphins are still the worst team in the NFL, 2 years running. SD will win their division this year, and perhaps the AFC championship.

- Hakrjak

[L2Gunz]

San Diego will win this game big!!! Miami doesn't have what it takes to beat this team. Yes they did beat New England, but do you really think that Cassel guy is better than Phillip Rivers??? NO WAY...and with Chad Pennington in the position to control Miami's offense is just out right scarry. No way I put my money on a quarterback that wasn't even a starter for the Jets.

[picantel]

On Miami here. They always play SD tough even when fielding a crap team. They have also covered ATS 6 of the last 7 games against the chargers. I will take my chances.

[fiveteamer]

On Miami here. They always play SD tough even when fielding a crap team. They have also covered ATS 6 of the last 7 games against the chargers. I will take my chances.

Did you not read Nicky's rant on trends?

[picantel]

Did you not read Nicky's rant on trends?

No sorry I tend to ignore his rants.

[roasthawg]

I think Miami is one of the best bets of the week. Playing west coast road favorites in the Eastern time zone with a 1:00 ET start may be hazzardous to your health!

I love the Dolphins this week too...I jumped on them early at +7, SD is consistently overrated.

[LT Profits]

Another giveaway here is that 67% of bets are on Chargers, and yet line has gone from -7 to -6.5.

[hakrjak]

Another giveaway here is that 67% of bets are on Chargers, and yet line has gone from -7 to -6.5.

Where are you getting this information? I think you're a conspiracy theorist. If that was true, the line would move.

- Hakrjak

[hakrjak]

p.s. -- Have others noticed how San Diego plays every week as if they're playing to beat the spread, and not just win the game? This is another reason why I love SD. Even when you thought they might just grind out the clock last week, LT breaks out and scores the TD to put us over the top. The week before, Rivers kept running up the score on the Jets to make sure they couldn't come back and BTS. The week before that, they beat the spread in Denver -- even though they lost the game, barely. And the only time they didn't BTS all year was in game 1 against a very good Carolina team, when playing with an injured Merriman, and some other issues.

If you're a "Trend" player -- then this is surely a trend you cannot ignore.

If you are just a smart player, then you can't ignore the fact that you've got a Super Bowl Caliber team here playing a potential worst team in the NFL, and only giving up 7 pts. It's like a dream come true!

- Hakrjak

[LT Profits]

Where are you getting this information? I think you're a conspiracy theorist. If that was true, the line would move.

- Hakrjak

Sports Insights

http://twominutewarning.com/bettracker.htm

[hakrjak]

So let me get this straight -- Your strategy is to bet against the public every chance you get when the line is manageable?

And this is all based on what? Some conspiracy theory you have that Sportsbooks are fixing the games so they can win big on underdogs?

- Hakrjak

[LT Profits]

So let me get this straight -- Your strategy is to bet against the public every chance you get when the line is manageable?

And this is all based on what? Some conspiracy theory you have that Sportsbooks are fixing the games so they can win big on underdogs?

- Hakrjak

Not every chance I get, but doing so would probably be a winning stategy.

And not based on theory, based on actual results.

[LT Profits]

Nothing to do with game-fixing, more to do with following the sharps. Whenever there is reverse line movement like this, it meams the sharps are on the unpopular side.

[fiveteamer]

LT, are you on Detroit this weekend?

[LT Profits]

LT, are you on Detroit this weekend?

NO. I know Lions fit the profile, but note my comment above that I don't "always" blindly follow this strategy.

[fiveteamer]

Looking at that Graphic, Bears should be like -6.

[LT Profits]

I know, but I'd rather just pass than back the Lions.

[jjgold]

Miami is very underrrated

Favre beat them with two lucky td passes in opener


Pennington was firing in end zone at end of game for the win

Miami outright

[gm2022]

7 pt tease this game only play

[UntilTheNDofTimE]

im all over this game

[RageWizard]

All you guys on San Diego may be in for a shocker. Miami hasn't just covered, they beat them outright like 5 of the last 6 times they played, and one of those times S.D was favored by 13.

Miami's running game is coming around and San Diego doesn't play running defense. Look for Miami to try to control the clock with Ronnie (I got a stronger arm than Chad) Brown, and Ricky ( I wanted to smoke a fatty this week but realized that no-one else pays a million a year) Willams. Chad will still be Chad, but he has a better feel for the offense and will be dinking and dunking the ball to move the chains and shorten the game. It is also a 1:00 game, so San Diego will be asleep at the start of the game. Add it up and it is a dangerous game for San Diego. Did I mention that San Diego plays New England next week. Smells like a home dog barking situation to me.

[hakrjak]

Your data is ridiculous -- When did those 5 wins occur, during the Dan Marino days? Give me a break -- You are forgetting the most important piece of data here, and that is that SD is playing the Miami Dolphins, and the Dolphins are horrible -- End of sentence.

Some of you guys with stats are like John Madden on Sunday Night Football. He always opens up with some BS line like, "The Cowboys have NEVER won at Lambeau field!" -- and then by the end of the game you are watching the Cowboys kick ass at Lambeau. Or he'll say, "5 out of the last 6 times were a win for team X" -- And then the underdog will prevail. None of those stats mean a thing, and if they did -- you'd be playing a computer system, where a CPU is making your picks for you and not a human being. The reason that hasn't happened yet is because computers have been horribley innacurate at picking sports based on stats alone.

- Hakrjak

[alexda[]]

So let me get this straight -- Your strategy is to bet against the public every chance you get when the line is manageable?

And this is all based on what? Some conspiracy theory you have that Sportsbooks are fixing the games so they can win big on underdogs?

- Hakrjak

its not about fixing games but the ppl who make lines arent dumb. they're not going to be losing their employer (vegas) money and if the square sides always won they would be doing just that. and u really think betting sports is as easy as picking which team is better? theres so many more factors than that or everyone would be rich off gambling and anyone, even someone who doesnt even watch sports but looks at records and what not, would be able to constantly pick winners.

[Brady2Moss]

Dont question LT, if he says the Dolphins are the value play you can take that shit to the bank partner

[McBa1n]

I have to say that watching SD on tape is very hard at times - especially their defense. They're a bunch of primadonnas that think they can just show up and win. In fact, one of their starters said as much and said he wanted to pick it up. Miami is hungry and a LOT of those guys are fighting for their NFL lives. From a talent standpoing? This game is a joke - SD SHOULD mop the floor with Miami... But football is a team game. Miami is a good team with lots of mediocre or worse players (outside of Ronnie Brown, that guy is just nasty). Anytime you can get points at home with a team that is fighting for it's life and plays that way - with nothing to lose, you normally will come out on top.

I havn't heard much out of Chargers camp this week to make me feel confident in taking them... So - by rule, as always, as I love Miami and the points and will be betting on them, SD will be the play.

[hawaii808]

Where are you getting this information? I think you're a conspiracy theorist. If that was true, the line would move.

- Hakrjak

LT IS CORRECT...THAT MEANS THE 33% ON THE FINS IS LAYING BIG MONEY

[hakrjak]

LT IS CORRECT...THAT MEANS THE 33% ON THE FINS IS LAYING BIG MONEY

Ok, that makes sense. I thought he was saying 33% of the money was on one team and 67% of the money was on another, which didn't make any sense at all.

Just because there are rich people betting, doesn't mean they are any smarter than the rest of us though. There are just as many degenerate gamblers that are wealthy as middle class.

- Hakrjak

[hakrjak]

Here's some more of my analysis of the matchup from a different thread:

SD averages 34.5 pts per game by themselves -- I'd say that's not bad. Away they've had 38 and 28 (And the 28 was the Oakland game, which was an abhoration. That was game was a fluke, IMO). The Fins are averaging 20.6 pts per game this year, and 1 of their games was a fluke (In my opinion) -- where they somehow scored 38 against a demoralized NE team. If you throw that one away, they are averaging a whopping 12 pts per game. Thus: The Fins are in for a thrashing this Sunday.

- Hakrjak

[L2Gunz]

Dont question LT, if he says the Dolphins are the value play you can take that shit to the bank partner

Is LT the one that told you to bet $1200 to win $100 on that USC game. Miami WILL lose big. And to all the San Diego backers this weekend, lets make money.

[hakrjak]

Thank god someone here has some sense. haha...

This reminds me of all the hooligans who were pumping the Jets a couple Mondays ago when I predicted that SD would romp on them, and they did.

Cheers,

- Hakrjak

[bosterosoy]

Love the Chargers here, Miami is showing signs but San Diego has more play makers and a blossoming QB. if it was -7.5 maybe problematic, but have to take chargers if all it takes is a TD. IMO

BOL