pick San Diego -6.5 +101 over Miami

[etothep]

I know, but I'd rather just pass than back the Lions.

Now that is what I'd call a winning strategy

[LT Profits]

Now that is what I'd call a winning strategy

I actually went one better than that and added the BEARS as a play!

[Illtakethoseodds]

LT IS CORRECT!! not this LT here on the site.... the real LT.. LETS GO CHARGERS!!

[babaoriley]

So let me get this straight -- Your strategy is to bet against the public every chance you get when the line is manageable?

And this is all based on what? Some conspiracy theory you have that Sportsbooks are fixing the games so they can win big on underdogs?

- Hakrjak

Hakrjak, with all due respect, you're an idiot. You've got your Pacino-McConaughey avatar, have no idea what line movement is based on, for some reason you can't comprehend that reverse line movement is, by and large, a very good indicator of the sharp side, and you base your picks on statements like "San Diego is good and Miami isn't". Really, all you're doing is embarrassing yourself. I literally believe you're betting 3 dimes ($.30) on this game.

[babaoriley]

Here's some more of my analysis of the matchup from a different thread:

SD averages 34.5 pts per game by themselves -- I'd say that's not bad. Away they've had 38 and 28 (And the 28 was the Oakland game, which was an abhoration. That was game was a fluke, IMO). The Fins are averaging 20.6 pts per game this year, and 1 of their games was a fluke (In my opinion) -- where they somehow scored 38 against a demoralized NE team. If you throw that one away, they are averaging a whopping 12 pts per game. Thus: The Fins are in for a thrashing this Sunday.

- Hakrjak

Oakland rolled over for them, plain and simple... A poorly coached team gave up 28 unanswered. Under no circumstances should SD have covered that game. Also, abhoration isn't a word. It's aberration. I normally don't come on here and blast random people, but your Two for the Money avatar and misguided sense of bravado were bad enough. Then you don't understand something as simple as reverse line movement. San Diego could very well cover this spread, but let me tell you this: if you bet the team you think is "better" over 1,000 plays, my guess is that you win about 450 of those.

[RageWizard]

Your data is ridiculous -- When did those 5 wins occur, during the Dan Marino days? Give me a break -- You are forgetting the most important piece of data here, and that is that SD is playing the Miami Dolphins, and the Dolphins are horrible -- End of sentence.

Some of you guys with stats are like John Madden on Sunday Night Football. He always opens up with some BS line like, "The Cowboys have NEVER won at Lambeau field!" -- and then by the end of the game you are watching the Cowboys kick ass at Lambeau. Or he'll say, "5 out of the last 6 times were a win for team X" -- And then the underdog will prevail. None of those stats mean a thing, and if they did -- you'd be playing a computer system, where a CPU is making your picks for you and not a human being. The reason that hasn't happened yet is because computers have been horribley innacurate at picking sports based on stats alone.

- Hakrjak

OK dude, the last time Miami played San Diego was in 2005 week 14 with San Diego as the home team. Miami sucked then as they suck now, and to give evidence the San Diego team was favored by 13 points. Of course Miami won 23-21 and smiling Dan Marino wasn't the QB.
S.D. may very well win and cover, but they have a shit load of problems starting with their run defense, and Miami is starting to get their running game going. Last week's cover with S.D. was great because like everyone else, I was on them because they always cover in Oakland, even though last week was a total gift. They should have lost outright to Jokeland. I believe that they lose outright this week to Miami, and when it happens, it will be the run defense that does them in.

[CBBPhenom]

Miami ML Get Some

[madmaxx]

Chambers scores more points by himself than Miami does as a team...

Miami backers good luck, you'll need it

[hakrjak]

Hey, if I'm wrong -- I'll be happy to eat my words and congratulate you Miami backers, but until then -- I think you're all completely insane, and I plan to win big tomorrow morning!

Cheers,

- Hakrjak

[$$POOLCRAZY$$$$]

Hey, if I'm wrong -- I'll be happy to eat my words and congratulate you Miami backers, but until then -- I think you're all completely insane, and I plan to win big tomorrow morning!

Cheers,

- Hakrjak

You are a total idiot.Whatever you say I will go the opposite every time!!You have made me alot of $$ over the past month.tyvm I will bet big on MIAMI and DETRIOT this weekend thanks to all you NFL know it alls.lol

[apk2k6]

Miami is looking good right now. At -6.5 spread, the ML should be around 300, but it's around 260. This means Miami ATS may be a good play. Also, the public is with Chargers.

Two good signs!

[Chi_archie]

didn't have time to read entire thread...I'm sure its been said.... but it prob bears repeating...

Dolphins with a bye... moral high after a suprise victory 2 weeks ago, RB's hitting on all cylinders...

and West Coast team playing an early game, traveling way across the country..

and I think pennington is a head case...which can be a good thing...should be brimming with confidence after his last game, and not be as tentative.... now that could result in about 4 picks by him.. but i like him in this situation today

[NardVa]

I think Miami is one of the best bets of the week. Playing west coast road favorites in the Eastern time zone with a 1:00 ET start may be hazzardous to your health!

Plus Miami is coming of a bye and San is going on the road for the 2nd straight week.

[iladelcat]

Damn fellas...there is too much OVER analyzing goin on....regardless of stats and previous tendencies, this is the NFL!! From week to week...anyone can't beat anyone....its about matchups!! San Diego all day...they have their confidence back and they can't afford to lose to Miami if they want to get ahead in the AFC....

[babaoriley]

Damn fellas...there is too much OVER analyzing goin on....regardless of stats and previous tendencies, this is the NFL!! From week to week...anyone can't beat anyone....its about matchups!! San Diego all day...they have their confidence back and they can't afford to lose to Miami if they want to get ahead in the AFC....

Again, not to belabor the point, but this type of thinking is why casinos get built. You're arguing your case for why you think San Diego SHOULD WIN. But, you're not making a case for why Miami SHOULDN'T COVER.

And hakrjak, I didn't mean to be so harsh in my earlier post. My point is that there is a "reverse line movement" scenario that is perfectly illustrated here. No major injuries, no other noteworthy news about personnel, a 70/30 split in number of bets on SD/Mia and a line that is moving the other way (from 7 to 6.5). Not only is the sharp money hitting Miami hard, it's pushed the line off the crucial 7. San Diego may very well cover, but there's too much going on with that line to play San Diego to cover. If you think San Diego covers then bet it. Sharps are often wrong. Good Luck.

[millio007]

If you're a "Trend" player -- then this is surely a trend you cannot ignore.

If you are just a smart player, then you can't ignore the fact that you've got a Super Bowl Caliber team here playing a potential worst team in the NFL, and only giving up 7 pts. It's like a dream come true!

- Hakrjak

your super bowl calibur team needs 3td just to cover 2nd half dude nothing is a gift from the gods its SPORTS...unless you knew Tim Donaghy I wud bet the bankroll with him lol

[ocho cinco]

this is getting ugly, wtf is wrong sd offense.

[jjgold]

Miami is the real deal, you should of realized that in the 1st week against the Jets

[BeatTheJerk]

one word = wildcat lol

[goldengoat]

bill parcels

that dude knows football even if he's not coaching....i thought miami would be the most improved this year

i didn't beat this game but this result does not surprise

don't bet against that tub of goo

[fiveteamer]

Fade Dave Head, this guy is a square.

[etothep]

this is getting ugly, wtf is wrong sd offense.

i assume th answer to this ? is ted cottrell

[hakrjak]

Looked like SD would come back here, but now Chambers is gone with a leg injury, so I'd same those of us on SD are screwed unless the other players can step it up now. LT just blew a 1 yd touchdown run too, great... Just great....

- Hakrjak

[hakrjak]

Bad pass interferance call. No way was that ball even catchable, was 10 yds in the air.

[CaneDawg]

Rivers could have tied it

[hakrjak]

Yep... He should have hit Jackson on that deep ball and we'd be playing to beat the spread right now. Now we're just playing to tie it.

SD still looks like they are trying to do more than win the game though. We shall see. I haven't given up hope completely quite yet! I saw the Packers score 21 pts in the last 5 minutes a few weeks ago. LOL

- Hakrjak

[mmike032]

they get another chance to tie it.
overtime would be fine with me

[teaserpleaser]

Chargers have no pass rush at all... wow cromartie just got trucked,poor chargers

[roasthawg]

Easy money on Miami, SD is consistently overrated.

[daggerkobe]

SD 0-7 in Miami

[ocho cinco]

stupid fuks couldn't pound it in from 1 yr line or stop a high school offense. they deserved gettin fuked up the azz

[apk2k6]

Miami is looking good right now. At -6.5 spread, the ML should be around 300, but it's around 260. This means Miami ATS may be a good play. Also, the public is with Chargers.

Two good signs!

This is why systems are great. Of course my heart said Chargers but the numbers don't lie. I should have taken the ML too

[hakrjak]

Hey Guys -- Just a quick note to say that I thought SD had many chances to BTS today, but they did not.... It sucked -- to all those who had the brass balls to bet Miami in this one, I congratulate. That game was ridiculous!

- Hakrjak