Hedge Giants future 1k to win 30k

john230 · 01-18-12, 08:55 AM

Good move. I would wait until the AFC is decided and go from there. I would start hedging now and not risk more than 10k over the possible 2 bets. I would try to win at least 2k if the niners won. If Baltimore wins the AFC you are in a good spot as Ravens will most likely be a small dog. Good luck.

Ruff · 01-18-12, 09:09 AM

Originally posted by john230

Good move. I would wait until the AFC is decided and go from there. I would start hedging now and not risk more than 10k over the possible 2 bets. I would try to win at least 2k if the niners won. If Baltimore wins the AFC you are in a good spot as Ravens will most likely be a small dog. Good luck.

Thanks John for the advice!!! I may try to win 1500-2000 if SF wins.
Have to hope the Ravens get it done.
If not I dont want to speculate on what the ML would be if its Giants and Pats.
It will be a lot loss profitable if Pats win.

k13 · 01-18-12, 12:14 PM

MAX bet on Niners.

Or a NE/Niners teaser for 2-3k, you almost want this one to lose.

LeagueCapper · 01-18-12, 02:01 PM

Wait till tipoff as the line is gonna be PK by kickoff then put 2k-3k on the 49ers, guarantee some profit either way

Landscaper · 01-18-12, 02:06 PM

Wow

Sport_Fish · 01-18-12, 02:10 PM

Your in a good spot...congrats.

First step would be to immediately lay 5k on 49ers...because if Giants lose you should atleast risk $5,000 here so u profit a gd amount. If they win, your only losing 1/6 of your payout....so will still leave you with more hedging opportunities later on.

ncsubowen · 01-18-12, 11:57 PM

I'm with everyone above. You basically have 30k waiting if the Giants win out, I'd try to keep at least 15k of that in play. 3-5k on the Niners this week and 10k on their opponent in the SB if they go on to it. Either way you're up a buttload.

Congrats on your spot. I don't think many people would have laid that line preseason.

BettingWizard · 01-19-12, 12:22 AM

let it ride

BigDeem5 · 01-19-12, 12:28 AM

Roll Tide, Giants can beat Packers they can beat the 49ers

Ruff · 01-19-12, 02:16 AM

Thanks all for the input!!!!
I will wait and see the winner of the AFC champ game (go RAVENS!!!!)
If I lay 5k to win 3.7k on SF I will profit 2.7K if Niners win. If the Giants win ill be in for 6k. To make back the 6k against the Pats im thinking I would have to lay 12k to make 6k thats if the Pats are -200 on the ML (break even if Pats win Superbowl). The key is guessing what will the line be if its a Giant/Pats or Giants/Ravens Superbowl.
Its a wait and see. Im leaning going light on SF maybe 2700/2000. Lots of decisions.
Thanks again all. I hope that ramble made some sense. LOL

andywend · 01-19-12, 02:29 AM

Ruff,
Bet $1300 to win $1000 on the 49ers and let the rest ride.

If the 49ers win, you break even on your wager.

A great rule of thumb is to only cover your original stake until you get down to a single event.

You made a bet on the Giants to win the SuperBowl (never a great idea to do so preseason as the Giants were more than 30-1 after they won their division).

Bet the 49ers on the ML to win back your $1000 and make sure you have an outlet that allows you to bet the SuperBowl "in-running".

Good luck.

riffraff24 · 01-19-12, 02:57 AM

i'd do something like 5k. i'd be able to deal with walking with a 4k win. And if it hit then **** yea brother! Or maybe whatever to cover your 1k wager

Qtip · 01-19-12, 03:18 AM

I would wait myself, don't see odds getting worse, only better. Other then that I'm not sure what I would do, your in a good but tough spot.

Ruff · 01-21-12, 04:00 AM

Here are some other options a friend of mine sent me.

1.) Two Team Parlay:
BALTIMORE +7.5 -120~-110
SFO ML -128
($733 to win $1759.62)

2.) Two Team Parlay:
PATRIOTS ML -305
SFO ML -128
($1288 to win $1759.62)

Scenario 1: (Good)
Baltimore wins, Giants win OR
Patriots win, Giants win
You are down $2021
You still have your 30-1 shot

Scenario 2: (acceptable)
Patriots win by more than 7, SFO wins
You break even. This would be worst case.

Scenario 3: (Nice)
Patriots win but don't cover, SFO wins
You win $2519.24
You don't win 30k, but this is still pretty sweet.

H1Cypher · 01-21-12, 06:32 AM

Make sure you win at least something if you leave this with the 9ers winning and you only hedged enough to get your money back suddenly your left with your 1k. You will regret it for a long time. If you give up 5 thousand right now to win a couple thousand you'll at least be left with something. Don't get greedy for an extra 5k. Book a profit now, then decide how greedy you want to get for the superbowl. You can let the rest ride if they beat the 9ers.

Just ask yourself how stupid you will feel if you only hedge just enough to win your 1k back and the Giants lose- 9ers win- you lose nothing you win nothing. How long would that take to get over- vs losing part of a huge score. That is still very far from guaranteed.

p19101 · 01-21-12, 06:34 AM

Originally posted by andywend

Ruff,
Bet $1300 to win $1000 on the 49ers and let the rest ride.

If the 49ers win, you break even on your wager.

A great rule of thumb is to only cover your original stake until you get down to a single event.

You made a bet on the Giants to win the SuperBowl (never a great idea to do so preseason as the Giants were more than 30-1 after they won their division).

Bet the 49ers on the ML to win back your $1000 and make sure you have an outlet that allows you to bet the SuperBowl "in-running".

Good luck.

^This

I have the same bet as you do, but at 75-1. I wont do any hedging at all this game on that bet. If I didn't have my unhedged NFC bet which I will be hedging this week I would have hedged my SB bet to get my stake back. The Giants didn't look this good all season so if you took them pre season 30-1 I would either hedge the stake or let it ride and hedge the SB.

Ruff · 01-23-12, 08:45 PM

We are in the drivers seat now!!!!!
Winners all around. Or let it ride LOL

BettingWizard · 01-23-12, 08:49 PM

Originally posted by BettingWizard

let it ride

Ruff · 01-25-12, 11:46 AM

OK -2021 plus the 1k original wager at 30-1.
Sooo.... play Pats say worse case -150 4500/3000 to break even if Pats win and win 22,500 if Giants win.
Or play 7500/5000 Pats . pats win =2k Giants win = 19,500
what to do.... Let the 3k ride to make 27k!!! go Giants
Lets hope that ML on the pats hits -125
Thoughts?
Oh ya p19101 I LOVE your avatar... I borrowed it thanks!!!

CTOWNsCAPPIN · 01-25-12, 01:07 PM

Originally posted by Ruff

OK -2021 plus the 1k original wager at 30-1.
Sooo.... play Pats say worse case -150 4500/3000 to break even if Pats win and win 22,500 if Giants win.
Or play 7500/5000 Pats . pats win =2k Giants win = 19,500
what to do.... Let the 3k ride to make 27k!!! go Giants
Lets hope that ML on the pats hits -125
Thoughts?
Oh ya p19101 I LOVE your avatar... I borrowed it thanks!!!

That's what i'd be doin! BOL!

p19101 · 01-25-12, 02:34 PM

Keep most profit with Giants and take whatever with the Patriots.

Something like pats win =2k Giants win = 19,500 seems like a good deal.

p19101 · 01-25-12, 02:36 PM

As I said I have the same bet but I will let it all ride.

dlunc3 · 01-25-12, 08:21 PM

wow, you really put 1k on the giants to win it all? you must be loaded making that kind of bet

bol

Ruff · 01-25-12, 08:58 PM

Originally posted by dlunc3

wow, you really put 1k on the giants to win it all? you must be loaded making that kind of bet

bol

Each year I play 2 teams for a dime each.AFC and NFC
Steelers I play then every year (had them at 13.5-1) and Giants 30-1.
"loaded" its all relative.

H1Cypher · 01-26-12, 12:19 AM

You better book the 22.5k Win. 27k and 22k ain't shit difference. Even if you've been a degenerate(not saying you are, I have no clue hypothetical)... you can still hold onto your 22k and just tail the right people. be disciplined and make that 4k back no problem.

Don't listen to these degenerates. If you let it ride you are a degenerate.

p19101 · 01-26-12, 01:13 AM

Originally posted by H1Cypher

You better book the 22.5k Win. 27k and 22k ain't shit difference. Even if you've been a degenerate(not saying you are, I have no clue hypothetical)... you can still hold onto your 22k and just tail the right people. be disciplined and make that 4k back no problem.

Don't listen to these degenerates. If you let it ride you are a degenerate.

You're obviously clueless on this topic

H1Cypher · 01-26-12, 09:14 AM

Originally posted by p19101

You're obviously clueless on this topic

Post your monthly paycheck. I have a real job you degenerate.

if you think there is a difference between 27k and 22k in the grandscope of things. I can tell you are unemployed sucka.

p19101 · 01-26-12, 11:24 AM

Originally posted by H1Cypher

Post your monthly paycheck. I have a real job you degenerate.

if you think there is a difference between 27k and 22k in the grandscope of things. I can tell you are unemployed sucka.

I really do feel sorry for you

H1Cypher · 01-26-12, 11:51 AM

Originally posted by p19101

I really do feel sorry for you putting my broke ass in my place

Fixed your post. Nothing to say mr unemployed?

Don't be a degenerate. 27k and 22k is the same difference. that 5k is recoupable and if you had a job you'd understand just how easy 5k comes and goes.

p19101 · 01-26-12, 02:38 PM

Originally posted by H1Cypher

Fixed your post. Nothing to say mr unemployed?

Don't be a degenerate. 27k and 22k is the same difference. that 5k is recoupable and if you had a job you'd understand just how easy 5k comes and goes.

27k or 22k doesn't matter, you're not reading what I'm saying even, you're too dumb? The value in this game is on the Giants. So you'd want to hedge the smallest amount possible you feel comfortable with. Only he knows what that amount is, be it 0% on NE or 50%. Only he can answer for how his economy looks and what he needs out of this bet.

For me, I have this bet at 75:1 and I'm not hedging it. I'm not gonna hedge this bet since it would be -EV. I already had a bet for the NFC game at 27:1 which I hedged because I wasn't thrilled about that matchup. As for Giants vs Patriots I really love the Giants and will let it ride. $50000 would be nice extra money, I see no reason for me to hedge it.

There are two major reasons to hedge a game.

1.) Either something turned against your bet so you're not liking it as much as when you placed it and see this as a good reason to bet. You see +EV on the other side of your bet and want to get a piece of that.

2.) You need money no matter the outcome. You might be content getting whatever $ you can out of the game and not have to worry about the outcome. I did this in the NFC game with 60% on Giants 40% on 49ers. I'm not a fan of this and I rarely hedge anything. In the long run it's not good practice to hedge unless 1) applies.

I look forward cashing big after the SB

Mriceyman · 01-26-12, 11:42 PM

Dam if i could maybe win 50 k or guaranteed to win 25 k i would havt to take the latter.. 50k just means something different to everyone .. for me it would be like winning the lottery lol

john230 · 01-27-12, 05:42 AM

Originally posted by p19101

27k or 22k doesn't matter, you're not reading what I'm saying even, you're too dumb? The value in this game is on the Giants. So you'd want to hedge the smallest amount possible you feel comfortable with. Only he knows what that amount is, be it 0% on NE or 50%. Only he can answer for how his economy looks and what he needs out of this bet.

For me, I have this bet at 75:1 and I'm not hedging it. I'm not gonna hedge this bet since it would be -EV. I already had a bet for the NFC game at 27:1 which I hedged because I wasn't thrilled about that matchup. As for Giants vs Patriots I really love the Giants and will let it ride. $50000 would be nice extra money, I see no reason for me to hedge it.

There are two major reasons to hedge a game.

1.) Either something turned against your bet so you're not liking it as much as when you placed it and see this as a good reason to bet. You see +EV on the other side of your bet and want to get a piece of that.

2.) You need money no matter the outcome. You might be content getting whatever $ you can out of the game and not have to worry about the outcome. I did this in the NFC game with 60% on Giants 40% on 49ers. I'm not a fan of this and I rarely hedge anything. In the long run it's not good practice to hedge unless 1) applies.

I look forward cashing big after the SB

I get your drift, but for me this a coin flip game. Very evenly matched teams. If I was going to take a side, I would take the Gmen. Not hedgeing your 75/1 wager takes some guts. At a minimum, I would hedge to get my original investment back if the Gmen lost. Good luck.

p19101 · 01-27-12, 10:30 AM

Originally posted by john230

I get your drift, but for me this a coin flip game. Very evenly matched teams. If I was going to take a side, I would take the Gmen. Not hedgeing your 75/1 wager takes some guts. At a minimum, I would hedge to get my original investment back if the Gmen lost. Good luck.

As I said I cashed a 27-1 bet on the NFC game, which I hedged 60/40 to Giants favor. I see that payout as more than covering my stakes here. I have Giants at 53% to win this game, but I would have to pay $1000~ for ever $750~ I would want to win on NE. That is bad business, I already did this at the SF game as my reasoning was that SF was the worse opponent for the Giants.

guil0000 · 01-27-12, 11:16 AM

I like the way you think. If you practice good money management and see value on the GMen in the superbowl it's better in the long run not to hedge.