but in original poster's case if you hedge the semi's you kind of have to hedge the finals also
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That is true, in his case I'd at least cover my stakes. But as I tried to say, no one can tell him the amount to hedge as we don't know his economical situation and so on. There are more factors to it than just what's optimal from a theoretical mathematical point of view.Comment -
its always good to secure money, and in superbowls and top games the public side loses many times and vegas wins, and this time the public is on NYG, last time vegas lost money on a superrbowl was with the NYG as a public favorite, so who knows, secure some money atleast rather than loseComment -
lol don't listen to these idiots telling you not to hedge. Only YOU can decide... If it is a life changing amount of money to YOU then take the guaranteed money. To some other people it might not much money and they probably won't hedge it. Everyone's situation is different.Comment -
I would personally hedge and play $15,000 on the Patriots money line. As people stated, the main reason not do this would be if you are relatively wealthy and feel that the giants are the right side.Comment -
Sample size would never be large enuf to speak about a "long run" for such lucky shot futures.
If you hedge some and giants win, you will still be satisfied. If you hedge nothing, it will be a letdown.
Ppl are different obviously, but unless you have access to weak bookmakers, speaking about -EV is a bit funny when futures usually are -EV anyway, from the start...Comment -
yeah hedge. always hedgeComment -
another hedge all your profits away thread unrealComment -
Hedging is giving away value. If you were gonna hedge, why didn't you just take Giants to win the nfc? If you need the money, then you should do it for as much as you need to, but its no different than taking insurance in black jack, minus EV for the player in the long run. But its a personal choice based on your economic situation.Comment -
Ok going to Hedge my 1k original play at 30-1 plus the 2k im down from the SF game.
-135 On pats to break even if Pats win. 4050/3000. If Giants win big payday 22950.
Go NYG!!!! I look at it as nothing to lose and almost 23k to win.
Do I "need" the cash ... No, hence the break even on Pats win.
The more I hedge the more I eat into the 30-1 original play. I now have the Giants at +425 with zero risk. Will I be pissed if Pats win? Of course!! who wouldn't?
I like those odds.Comment -
Where did you place your bet? I had a future on the Stl. Cardinals to win the World Series for $25,000 and I simply was not paid. Be sure you are confident with the source of your wager before you go hedging anything.Comment -
Let it ride outComment -
Placed it with my local that I have been doing business with for over 6 years.
I have not had to come up with any of the hedge monies upfront if that's also what your inferring.
Just an fyi to all speaking of slow paying books is sportsbook.ag... to me over 6 weeks to get 1.2k from them.
Go GIANTS!!!!
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Ruff, my play was with a local who has also been in business for close to a decade. Are you 100% positive this guy is going to pay you? Do you understand that if the Giants win, he will face the decision, 'Pay someone $30K, or simply close up show and ignore him'. Are you ready to go to the police or threaten this local with violence? I am guessing the answer to both questions is "No".
I hate to be so negative, but I want you to be 100% comfortable before you put $5K on the Pats and end up not seeing a penny.Comment -
To say again I am NOT taking any money out of my pocket. And the answer is yes he will pay. I've won "large" multiple weeks with him and the cash is in my hand on Monday. This is considered "large". We all know books had bad spell this NFL season and I know of many shops that closed up but again im confident that i will be paid if the Giants win.
If not live and learn.Comment -
Sadly your going to be breaking evenComment
