SF @ GB (2nd Half): GB +3, 1.5 Units
SF @ GB (2nd Half): U 24, 0.5 Unit
SF @ GB (2nd Half): U 24, 0.5 Unit
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On the day...
SD @ CIN (1st Half): CIN -3.5, 2.5 Units L
SD @ CIN: U 48, 4 Units W
SF @ GB: GB +3, 5 Units P
SF @ GB: U 47, 2 Units W
SF @ GB (2nd Half): GB +3, 1.5 Units W
SF @ GB (2nd Half): U 24, 0.5 Unit W
Cash em!!!!Comment -
Wild Card Playoffs
NO @ PHI: PHI -2.5, 2.5 Units L
SD @ CIN (1st Half): CIN -3.5, 2.5 Units L
NO @ PHI: U 54.5, 3.5 Units W
KC @ IND: KC +3, 5 Units W
SD @ CIN: U 48, 4 Units W
SF @ GB: GB +3, 5 Units P (had I waited 3 more minutes, would've got this +3.5 @ 5Dimes)
SF @ GB: U 47, 2 Units W
SF @ GB (2nd Half): GB +3, 1.5 Units W
SF @ GB (2nd Half): U 24, 0.5 Unit W
Comin' up, some thoughts on next week's divisional playoffs & maybe a pick or two to boot.Comment -
NO/SEA
'Hawks handed NO a 34 - 7 loss in week 13. Knee jerk Vegas lines: O/U 48, +/- 9.5 pts.
Even though the game is in Seattle again, I doubt the Saints get blown away a second time. Currently, Joe Public is on the Emerald City, and OVER the rainbow.
IND/NE
Colts lost this game when they beat KC last week. Line's hovering @ 7; but may go lower/higher depending on influence from the horse breeding industry (Kentucky), Chicago-ties (Illinois), racing syndicates (Indiana), and the Boston connection. Probably best to wait and read between the "lines" to try and figure out who wants what, and who has more pull. For entertainment's sake, look over yonder for a Manning Brady showdown - it makes for the best ticket in the long run.
SF/CAR
I don't think the 9ers are going to the SB again this year. They may go next year and win it all, as has my prediction since 02/13. SF will fall short this week, or maybe next. 9ers are currently fav'd by 1.5 in Charlotte - good luck w/ that. Waiting to pull the trigger at any given moment.
SD/DEN
Its a Bronco win, but by how much? My gut feeling: Bolts keep it close for the sake of the sponsors who pay the four quarters worth of commercials during the telecast. In the Denver market, it's only a matter of time one of these years before one of those sponsors is a (legal) cannabis distributor. What?Comment -
don't need it, recently been doing good on my own, thank youOriginally posted by franklin_ellisComment -
SF/CAR: Lean CAR
Alright, so what really does this game come down to?
First, it's not the Jan 12 feature presentation. That belongs to DEN/SD. The Panthers/9ers have the Sunday matinee billing. In theory, Panthers have the edge on several fronts: bye week, home game, home record, 2013 week 10, BofA backing (stadium), and the Richardson-Goddell association. Yet, Joe Public currently believes Joe Stein’s opinion that Kap/York is a better bet because they supposedly stack up better. What goes on the field is only part of the game.
Late $$$ came in on the 9ers last weekend pushing the line to -3.5, and I’m thinking that maybe the same thing will happen this go-around, which is when I’ll pull the trigger big time. If not, well, that’s a gamble too, isn't it.
‘Hawk’s already played the 9ers twice this season; Panther’s once. Wouldn’t it be more refreshing to see a SEA/CAR repeat then a SEA/SF 3-peat? C’mon, 9ers have a new stadium for 2014, 9ers will be the favs to win SB 2015, and Frisco (suburb) will host SB 2016. Relax, Whiners, wait your turn.Comment -
'Nuff about SF/CAR...turning my attn to NO/SEA, IND/NE, & SD/DEN
NO/SEA
Game time forecast: inclement weather. I wonder which team that favors?
Unless the Saints get an assist from some Big Easy voodoo, SEA will win this game. But by how much is the $x question. Thinkin' this is gonna be a closer game than what most people think, for a couple of reasons: over-rated Percy Harvin hype, New Orleans won't get blown out again (power rankings suggest), betting trends. Will wait this one out for line movement purposes.
IND/NE
Line's been holding steady at 7. Tri-state lobby keeping this a one score game. But feelin' confident that Patriots will prevail big...will also wait this one out. Game time pick.
SD/DEN
Feature presentation = entertainment. Chargers will make it interesting. Game time pick.Comment -
Nice insight. Looking forward to seeing your picks and seeing if we are on the same sideComment -
I'm waiting for your pick!Comment -
NO @ SEA: NO +10.5 4.5 Units (5Dimes)
NO @ SEA: O 43.5, 2 Units (5Dimes)
Wait over...10.5 is as good as its probably gonna get. Weather "may" affect the passing game on both sides, so that cancels out any advantage on either side. O/U is currently 43.5, down from 45 yesterday (weather related reaction, obviously). Despite the field conditions, 43.5 is rather low based on what these teams have to do offensively to get the win. Good luck, fellas.Comment -
NO @ SEA: NO +10.5 4.5 Units W
NO @ SEA: O 43.5, 2 Units L
O didn't hit, but cash the side!
IND/NE...Comment -
IND @ NE (1st Half): IND +4.5, 1 Unit
IND @ NE (1st Half): O 24, 1 Unit
IND @ NE: O 50, 2.5 Units
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IND @ NE (1st Half): IND +4.5, 1 Unit L
NO @ SEA: O 43.5, 2 Units L
NO @ SEA: NO +10.5 4.5 Units W
IND @ NE (1st Half): O 24, 1 Unit W
IND @ NE: O 50, 2.5 Units W
5 Units - wholesale - to the cage!!!
SF/CAR & SD/DEN next up...
Leans: CAR, SD (may change dep on line movement (always the proverbial line movement for the playoffs)Comment -
SF/CAR
It's CAR or nothing for me. But the ats' been erratic; haven't been able to lock in the # I want. But if 9ers fans are true, we'll prob see late SF money comin' in which will hopefully push it to Pix territory. Game time pick decision.
I noticed that the Cam Newton Play 60 commercial has been running a lot during these here playoffs, and its not by accident. So what does that mean other than a lead in to tomorrow's game? Newt indoctrination? If you think that's pure nonsense, then don't "buy" into it and be complacent instead.Comment -
We waiting on you pix, let's get this moneyComment -
SF @ CAR: CAR pk, 3 Units
Already explained myself in previous posts. May revisit this at halftime for some more action.Comment -
SF @ CAR (2nd Half): CAR pk, 1.5 Units
Gonna ride this one out to the end, win or lose.Comment -
SD @ DEN (1st Half): DEN -5.5, 2.5 Units
SD @ DEN (1st Half): O 27, 3.5 Units
SD @ DEN: SD+ 10, 3 units
SD @ DEN: U 56, 2 UnitsComment -
SD @ DEN (2nd Half): O 24, 3 Units
SD @ DEN (2nd Half): SD +3.5, 1.5 UnitsComment -
SF @ CAR: CAR pk, 3 Units L
SF @ CAR (2nd Half): CAR pk, 1.5 Units L
SD @ DEN (1st Half): O 27, 3.5 Units L
SD @ DEN (1st Half): DEN -5.5, 2.5 Units W
SD @ DEN: SD+ 10, 3 units W
SD @ DEN: U 56, 2 Units W
SD @ DEN (2nd Half): O 24, 3 Units W
SD @ DEN (2nd Half): SD +3.5, 1.5 Units W
4 units the hard way; 9 total (minus juice) for the weekend.
Conf. Games
SF @ SEA: SEA -3, 3 Units
NE @ DEN: DEN - 4.5, 3 Units
Short on time, no writeup at the moment for the basis of the aforementioned...but will try to provide some thoughts here and there leading up to the games.
High probability of unit increases on both plays depending on ats movement throughout the week.Comment -
NE @ DEN & SF @ SEA, the Mini-Super Bowls
NE/DEN
Thinkin' DEN wins this game with room to spare. The Broncos should put enough winning pts on the board, and this time keep the Pats from doing the same (which, we all remember, they were unable to do last match-up). All the angles - pro & con - have already been covered in this forum by other posters, so I'm not going to add my two cents. On the evening of Jan 12th, the line opened at 7, then was pushed down to 4.5 a few hours later. Pounded it! Hasn't been lower than than 5.5 since (at most shops). More Pix action to come, incl a 1st half and O/U stance...
SF/SEA
In recent years, odds are against teams making repeat Super Bowl visits. OK, so the 9ers made it this far. And yes, they'll probably keep the game close at various times during the game. But I don't think they'll make another appearance to the Big Game this year. Its gonna be a defensive battle; doubtful the ats goes below 3. I currently got SEA at -3, and may also sprinkle a bet or two on the 1st Half and Total to liven things up. Won't do that though until I get a feel for how things may transpire after NE/DEN game.
Super Bowl Prediction:
SEA vs. DEN, the best defense vs. the best offense. Should the "Hawks and the Broncos make it to Metlife, its gonna be a SEA pick for me the moment the line opens, unless...Comment -
NE @ DEN: U 57, 2 Units
A wild shootout is not in the best interest of either team. Turnovers dominated the last NE/DEN match-up, so protecting the ball will undoubtedly be emphasized. Won't be surprised if the game takes on a conservative approach. 57 is as high as the total will probably get, so locking the U in now.Comment -
Line's now becoming fluid as Bay Area people flocking to Vegas/Reno/Tahoe putting in their weekend $$$. What's this?! SEA -2.5 1st half? I'll take that all day!!!
SF @ SEA (1st Half): SEA -2.5, 2 UnitsComment -
NE/DEN (1st Half)
Line's creeping into 28+ territory. The moment it does, count me in. Leanin'...Comment -
Pixster Recap
NE @ DEN: (1st Half): DEN -3, 1 Unit
NE @ DEN: DEN - 4.5, 3 Units
NE @ DEN: U 57, 2 Units
SF @ SEA (1st Half): SEA -2.5, 2 Units
SF @ SEA: SEA -3, 3 Units
I threw in the NE @ DEN (1st Half) for some early action. Good luck, fellas!Comment -
NE @ DEN: (1st Half): DEN -3, 1 Unit W
NE @ DEN: DEN - 4.5, 3 Units W
NE @ DEN: U 57, 2 Units W
Now that we got that "squared" away....Go Seahawks!!!Comment -
SF @ SEA (2nd Half): SEA -3, 2.5 Units
Chasin' to win some of these units back. All or nothin' action!Comment -
SF @ SEA (1st Half): SEA -2.5, 2 Units L
SF @ SEA (2nd Half): SEA -3, 2.5 Units W
SF @ SEA: SEA -3, 3 Units W
NE @ DEN: (1st Half): DEN -3, 1 Unit W
NE @ DEN: DEN - 4.5, 3 Units W
NE @ DEN: U 57, 2 Units W
That's 9.5 minus-juice units, my friends. No time to gloat, working on DEN/SEA. Opening line hovering at 2.5 - 3 DEN.
O/U is at 47.5 - 48. No secret: my lean is SEA. Stay tuned for the official Pix...Comment -
While y'all been fraternizing each other, line's moved to 1.5, and the Earth has moved several thousand miles through space. Light years for some.Comment -
Some final thoughts on the 9ers...
In the next five years, I wouldn't be surprised if SF wins at least two SB's, beginning w/the 2014 - 2015 season (Kaep's contract year). The qb will be putting up some big #'s, and because he has something to prove, as does Harbaugh. Frisco's new stadium in Santa Clara will give the team the fresh start they need to become the dynasty they're capable of. The foundation is already there, just a few more adjustments to go.
For now, SEA is Super Bowl bound - as I predicted last February.
DEN/SEA
Depending on where you looked, the ats opened at SEA -1.5 at some places, PK at others. Most shops currently have it at DEN -2/-2.5
The line's trending upward, helped by the Public's infatuation w/Manning and Co. No need to hurry a pick for two reasons: a 3+ spread is much more appealing, and Mother Nature may have something to say about the outcome. Patience is a virtue.Comment -
Just finished reading some random threads here on SBR. Gotta say my favorite reads are the comments that have nothing do w/ handicapping...part of the addiction I guess coming back to the forum for more.
Speaking of amusement, what Super Bowl scenario will most likely play out for maximum entertainment? That's the script I'm predicating my 1st half & full game picks on. No Plan B, unless the line(s) ultimately doesn't cooperate, or the weather makes a mess of it all. Let's just say for lean-sakes, Seattle has a realistic chance no matter what the ats.Comment -
Don't want to waste my time on stats, power rankings, or any other kind of historical data because most everything imo is out the window when it comes to the Super Bowl. There. I said it, "Super Bowl". Two words the National Football League has a registered trademark on: Super Bowl. Screw the NFL lawyers. Super Bowl. Super Bowl. Super Bowl. Super Bowl. Super Bowl. Super Bowl. Super Bowl. Super Bowl!!!
Now that I got that out of my system, this is how I'm gonna roll the dice on the Big Game (sic)...
Soccer Game Penalty Kick Shootout Analogy
As the goalkeeper, I'm gonna guess which way the kicker is gonna kick the ball. As the kicker approaches the ball, I lean in the direction I think the ball is gonna be kicked. Hopefully, my reaction turns out to be the correct one to block the goal. Hint: my move will probably be opposite of what the public expects.
Pixster Prognostication Note
Since a lot of the early pre-SB hype is on the weather, Mother Nature thus becomes the 12th man (or woman). A better-then-expected forecast: look for DEN backers. Foul weather: look to see what DEN backers do.
Line movement 48 hrs prior to game time is going make meteorologists, especially in the Northeast, the most sought after person in the country.
Reflection
On a different note, I've noticed that in several of my posts throughout the season (my viewpoints "word for virtual word") have been turning up in other posters threads. Thanks, imitation is the greatest form of flattery.Comment -
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SEA @ DEN: SEA +2.5, 5.5 Units
SEA @ DEN (1st Half): DEN -0.5, 1.5 Units
Pix based on game scenario w/ most entertainment value…
DEN comes out of the gate quick – 1st half
SEA adjusts, defense holds long enough for comeback – 2nd half
Last drive of the game: DEN’s #1 offense vs. SEA’s #1 defense
SEA covers.
Any other layout the football gods have planned, then what a bummer that’ll be…Comment
