NFL at least 80% season success rate guanteed.

[PAULYPOKER]

Hey pauly, I know you aren't playing anymore games for wk8, but i'm just curious what your leans are for the Sunday Night game and the Monday Night game? For instance, if you lost the Pit bet, what would your "double up" have been? Since Pit was a late game, I'm assuming your double up would be either the Cowboys/Eagles game or the Chargers/Chiefs game.

Dallas&under 7 point teaser +10 Un 56 @-120

[BigdaddyQH]

Pauley, you and your system are full of caca and you know it, I know, and you know that I know it. You are one of the biggest B.S'ers in here. You have an overall losing record, and everyone who knows about you knows that. The reason why you post those gutsy plays is because you NEVER make them in the real world. Only in the world of cyberspace. Stick to hockey. You have a little knowledge there. And can the B.S.

[fly fisher]

didn't follow, but did see your 25x play, just wanted to pop in and say congrats to you.

[Ricki Roma]

Nice hit man, thought brady was gonna do it again with 20 secs left..

[PAULYPOKER]

Thx everyone for the congrats.........

[PAULYPOKER]

My week 9 play


+7 -130
ML+ 220

This is a regular play split in 2> 50% on ATS and 50% on ML.....

Below is a link to the writeup I have on this game>
Gb@SD> GB backers use caution............

[Grinder12000]

Well - anybody that plays teasers no longer has my vote for knowing anything about sports gambling and money management.

[Love The Action]

Well - anybody that plays teasers no longer has my vote for knowing anything about sports gambling and money management.

What about two team "wong teasers" which have been proven to be profitable long term at odds of -110 or better?

[freakydave]

+7 -130 ML+ 220 This is a regular play split in 2> 50% on ATS and 50% on ML..... Below is a link to the writeup I have on this game> Gb@SD> GB backers use caution............

SD ML ???
Sorry man but this is just B.S. after their play vs the JETS & KC anybody coming out & saying SD will beat GB outright is a moron & not a handicapper.Yes GB could have a poor showing & SD could win but there is no stat or line of reasoning based on football knowledge that would lead one to believe it was more likely than GB covering.This is an extremely poor bet even if it does win.Your starting to read like Lakerboy who IMO is just an action junkie that gets a thrill out of hyping dogs.

[PAULYPOKER]

Well - anybody that plays teasers no longer has my vote for knowing anything about sports gambling and money management.

Little newsflash for ya Grind,if there is no helmet in my posts this means it is nothing more than a lean,,LOL,,,thought this was obvious language that needed no explanation but I guess I was wrong.......

You are dead wrong about teasers though,they can be very profitable in the NFL if you know how to apply them.........

[hydrosmak]

SD ML ???
Sorry man but this is just B.S. after their play vs the JETS & KC anybody coming out & saying SD will beat GB outright is a moron & not a handicapper.Yes GB could have a poor showing & SD could win but there is no stat or line of reasoning based on football knowledge that would lead one to believe it was more likely than GB covering.This is an extremely poor bet even if it does win.Your starting to read like Lakerboy who IMO is just an action junkie that gets a thrill out of hyping dogs.

Says the guy with a GB avatar.

Saints fans probably said the same thing last week right? How about the Ravens Fans the week before?

[freakydave]

Says the guy with a GB avatar. Saints fans probably said the same thing last week right? How about the Ravens Fans the week before?

Just because I am a fan doesn't mean I hate money --------------SD has a struggling redzone offence, banged up RB's & Rivers is playing poorly---- can SD cover the points ? Maybe----- win outright not likely

[SlickRick1382]

Little newsflash for ya Grind,if there is no helmet in my posts this means it is nothing more than a lean,,LOL,,,thought this was obvious language that needed no explanation but I guess I was wrong.......

You are dead wrong about teasers though,they can be very profitable in the NFL if you know how to apply them.........

I don't know why anyone would bash teasers like that. Anything more than a 2 team teaser though and the odds (at least in my opinion) are against you even more. But for him to say that moving a line by 6 points on a game that you feel will be decided by 3 points less or past the 7 - 10 - 14 is just ridiculous.

Pauly, question for you if you don't mind. Since we're on the topic of teasers and from what I've read about you I feel that you're pretty knowledgeable on capping. I've been gambling awhile but have only recently come across certain sites / info that have changed the way I approach gambling so it's almost like a new experience for me.

With that being said, would you ever teaser a game both ways. Ex. a +-2.5 game where you can tease the favorite to +3.5 and the dog past 7-8. In essense you're just hedging your bet and ensuring yourself a $10 loss. But if you feel that the game would be decided by a FG or less than you can also hit both sides. Would there be any situations in which you would ever consider doing this? Sorry if it seems like a noobish question and appreciate the advice

Cheers
Rick

[PAULYPOKER]

Yes,a 2.5 to 4 spread only,if you believe the game will be decided by 3 or less..........

example SanD@KC on this past Monday night...

[PAULYPOKER]

totally agree, waiting for public to win some money this weekend and pound on packers sunday, guaranteed, 90% of parlays, parlay cards, teaser cards, ALL HAVE PACKERS. i work at a sportsbook and thats the same exact thing that happened when packers were -10 at vikings, and we had probably 20 people cashing viking tickets.

What sports book? if you don't mind me asking

[freakydave]

U sir and all the public chalk money go ahead and POUND on packers, and well see who cashes at the end of the day.

I love it The Packers are 5-2 ATS 2-2 ATS on the road but they are the wrong side vs the 1-2 ATS home team.
GB off a by & SD off a short week with key players banged up your right it's a lock for SD what was I thinking
I love how you bring up the Vikings(who are a much better ATS than SD) a divisional opponent & a DD dog as well.This isn't the same situation at all.This isn't even a must win situation for SD.

[blahwoop]

SD at + 5.5 now. is that still a good buy? never had it at 7

[Grinder12000]

Yea - ok fine - the linemakers and bookies in Las Vegas don't have a clue what they are doing. Weird - you would think that they would have figured out that they are leaking money by offering certain teasers. The thing is that people play teasers and when they cover they get all excited but they never look at the long run over the years. Come out ahead in the long run? not going to happen. Las Vegas is way way to smart to give free money away.

Teasers go into the same category as labby's and other money management systems and I TOTALLY understand why people don't see it. I've been gambling for 45 years (before there were computers) and somethings really do become clear when you get old :-)

carry on - BTW - I picked the Vikings vs. Packers (in my thread on this forum) and am picking SD this week. Why would I pound on the Packers? Did I ever mention them ? I don't know WHAT kingston89 is talking about.

Thanks for the helmet thingy - never heard of that. I don't spend a lot of time online talking gambling so . . . that was a new one. I didn't even know what a laddy was either - WOW - is THAT a mess-up betting system.

You know what is the very very best system?

If you are truly a good handicapper - bet the game, nothing fancy, like Craps, keep it simple, you don't HAVE to get that extra edge - if you are NOT truly a good handicapper, trying to get that extra edge is counter productive, it's like gettign those small payouts on a slot machine, makes you feel good but in the long run it's poor money management.

carry on

freakydave - that is EXACTLY why I'm on San Diego. Packers are way to obvious. From wjat I have seen 80% of money is going on the Packers! hmmmmmm Do I want to be a lemming? or think for myself!

[freakydave]

Yea - ok fine - the linemakers and bookies in Las Vegas don't have a clue what they are doing. Weird - you would think that they would have figured out that they are leaking money by offering certain teasers. The thing is that people play teasers and when they cover they get all excited but they never look at the long run over the years. Come out ahead in the long run? not going to happen. Las Vegas is way way to smart to give free money away. Teasers go into the same category as labby's and other money management systems and I TOTALLY understand why people don't see it. I've been gambling for 45 years (before there were computers) and somethings really do become clear when you get old :-) carry on - BTW - I picked the Vikings vs. Packers (in my thread on this forum) and am picking SD this week. Why would I pound on the Packers? Did I ever mention them ? I don't know WHAT kingston89 is talking about. Thanks for the helmet thingy - never heard of that. I don't spend a lot of time online talking gambling so . . . that was a new one. I didn't even know what a laddy was either - WOW - is THAT a mess-up betting system. You know what is the very very best system? If you are truly a good handicapper - bet the game, nothing fancy, like Craps, keep it simple, you don't HAVE to get that extra edge - if you are NOT truly a good handicapper, trying to get that extra edge is counter productive, it's like gettign those small payouts on a slot machine, makes you feel good but in the long run it's poor money management. carry on freakydave - that is EXACTLY why I'm on San Diego. Packers are way to obvious. From wjat I have seen 80% of money is going on the Packers! hmmmmmm Do I want to be a lemming? or think for myself!

I've said a couple times in this thread that I have no problem with people taking the points. But to come on here & try to convince people to bet the Chargers ML without even a good reason to expect them to win is a joke.The thread title is 80%
season success rate WOW GL with picks like that -
Grinder your contrarian play on SD isn't handicapping it's betting w/o handicapping.You know what they say about blind squirrels? BOL to you this season

[PAULYPOKER]

My week 9 Double up play


-3.5 -110

[Grinder12000]

Grinder your contrarian play on SD isn't handicapping it's betting w/o handicapping.

hmmmmm - that COULD be true since the system (which blew chunks yesterday) does not actually have anything to do with football. The things is you have to describe the word "handicapping". However - 90% of people that actually put words to why they are betting one side or the other are just making crap up to make them selves feel better. That's fine.

I go with numbers, 968 games (464-299 bet)which I feel is good for showing me what the standard deviation is. I do bet like a blind monkey, I take my brain totally out f play and go with the numbers.

BTW - I'm not convincing anybody to do anything there is zero upside. I believe Pauly is a good picker go with him. Everybody has different ways on winning. HOWEVER the most important thing in gambling is not picking winners, it's managing your bankroll. Many many people can win games and go broke doing so.

Pauly? I'm sorry - I'll shut up. You're a good guy and I didn't mean to hog your thread.

[PAULYPOKER]

My week 9 quadruple up play



-8 EV

[kcDdegenerate]

must be nice to chase with sbr points instead of actual $

[Speedy88]

Anytime a line is at -8 and the opposing team starts the game out with a TD, that is a lot of points that need to be made up.

[sweethook]

tuff one here tonight , gl man

[Speedy88]

Not lookin good. I'm going to guess we'll see an 8X play next week huh? To be honest, Chicago is surprising a lot of people today.

[freakydave]

U sir and all the public chalk money go ahead and POUND on packers, and well see who cashes at the end of the day.

Well I cashed on GB,Balt & the BEARS --How about you?

[EasyPicks]

wow....3 in a row!!

bad luck man!
and bad Karma.....

[freakydave]

I cashed on all too sir. teased them. all 7 points, if u dont believe me i wrote on my blog my picks and teased them.

Of course you did.
Congrats--After the crap you posted in this about thread about public road chalk & "squares" of course you teased SD What other play could there possibly be?
"go ahead and POUND on packers, and well see who cashes at the end of the day."
Spoken like a guy who was teasing SD all along,

[freakydave]

hmmmmm - that COULD be true since the system (which blew chunks yesterday) does not actually have anything to do with football. The things is you have to describe the word "handicapping". However - 90% of people that actually put words to why they are betting one side or the other are just making crap up to make them selves feel better. That's fine. I go with numbers, 968 games (464-299 bet)which I feel is good for showing me what the standard deviation is. I do bet like a blind monkey, I take my brain totally out f play and go with the numbers. BTW - I'm not convincing anybody to do anything there is zero upside. I believe Pauly is a good picker go with him. Everybody has different ways on winning. HOWEVER the most important thing in gambling is not picking winners, it's managing your bankroll. Many many people can win games and go broke doing so. Pauly? I'm sorry - I'll shut up. You're a good guy and I didn't mean to hog your thread.

Grinder I wasn't knocking your system. I don't even know what it is.I can only go by your post & in your post where you address me directly you don't say SD is system pick.You say your on SD because 80% is on GB.
BOL to you the rest of the season.

[SparJMU]

Two good picks from Pauly in week 5 and week 6, but I just want to give everyone here a fair warning that under no circumstance should you double up on a second play if your first loses. We have all done it before, but it's a terrible idea.

Even if Pauly is the single greatest handicapper in the history of the entire planet there is still a chance that he can lose multiple games in a row. No matter what his skill level may be, it's always a better idea to more or less flat bet. If he is going to hit 80% all year you can make a fortune flat betting his plays, but you could lose that fortune quickly if you decide to chase 3 or 4 in a row and somehow lose all of them.

Just want to bump this back into visibility. People beware of this guy. It is a near certainty that you will lose money following his advice.

[7secondsOrLess]

hey just keep doing it over and over until u hit one thats wat lb does lmao