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  • Love The Action
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 11-08-10
    • 10952

    #281
    Originally posted by Love The Action
    NFL 2011 Week 5

    Play #1

    Chargers/Broncos over (47) 1x (Locked)

    I think this game finally allows us to see the full range of the Chargers offense, from the running game to the passing game. The Chargers are an interesting team because they have the ability to put up 28 points every time they touch the field, but inconsistency holds them back. In this game, I think you see them finally put together a nice performance on the road. Mile high is hard place to play, however, Denver's defense does not have the horses to stop this efficient Charger attack. If you look the advanced stat DAVE projections, the SD offense is projected to be around the 5th best offense in the league. That means they should start hitting their strides relatively soon and I think that starts in Week 5. On the other side, Denver will get you three touchdowns and I think that is the case at home this week. The Charger defense itself has been very inconsistent and I don't expect this to be a defensive intensity type game. I think we see some early scores which leads to a one dimensional Denver pass attack that gets some late meaningless points. I have this game at 51, so we're getting over a fg in value and I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.
    Play #2

    Eagles/Bills over (49) 1.5x (Locked)

    I wanted to get 48 on this one but it never materialized and only started going up. Most outlets are at 49.5 and 50, so I when I saw 49 available I had to jump on it. This should be a good old fashioned shootout, especially when we get to the 4th quarter. Both qb's can run the 2 minute offense to perfection and find those open seam rights down the hashes. There is no secret that both defenses are struggling right now, while the offenses are firing but still have room for improvement. As always, the Vick factor helps the Eagles get some undeserved first downs and creates another indefensible option at the goal line. I just don't see the Bills defense able to stop the Eagles. On the other side, the Eagles have had nothing but problems defensively and this high flying Bills attack should only add to those woes. I like this number and have this game at 53, therefore I'm rolling with the over for 1.5x. Good luck.
    Comment
    • Love The Action
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 11-08-10
      • 10952

      #282
      Originally posted by Love The Action
      NFL 2011 Week 5

      Play #1

      Chargers/Broncos over (47) 1x (Locked)

      I think this game finally allows us to see the full range of the Chargers offense, from the running game to the passing game. The Chargers are an interesting team because they have the ability to put up 28 points every time they touch the field, but inconsistency holds them back. In this game, I think you see them finally put together a nice performance on the road. Mile high is hard place to play, however, Denver's defense does not have the horses to stop this efficient Charger attack. If you look the advanced stat DAVE projections, the SD offense is projected to be around the 5th best offense in the league. That means they should start hitting their strides relatively soon and I think that starts in Week 5. On the other side, Denver will get you three touchdowns and I think that is the case at home this week. The Charger defense itself has been very inconsistent and I don't expect this to be a defensive intensity type game. I think we see some early scores which leads to a one dimensional Denver pass attack that gets some late meaningless points. I have this game at 51, so we're getting over a fg in value and I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

      Play #2

      Eagles/Bills over (49) 1.5x (Locked)

      I wanted to get 48 on this one but it never materialized and only started going up. Most outlets are at 49.5 and 50, so I when I saw 49 available I had to jump on it. This should be a good old fashioned shootout, especially when we get to the 4th quarter. Both qb's can run the 2 minute offense to perfection and find those open seam rights down the hashes. There is no secret that both defenses are struggling right now, while the offenses are firing but still have room for improvement. As always, the Vick factor helps the Eagles get some undeserved first downs and creates another indefensible option at the goal line. I just don't see the Bills defense able to stop the Eagles. On the other side, the Eagles have had nothing but problems defensively and this high flying Bills attack should only add to those woes. I like this number and have this game at 53, therefore I'm rolling with the over for 1.5x. Good luck.
      Play #3

      Bears/Lions under (48.5) 1x (Locked)

      I'm risking that this one does not go up further, however, I think this is the best number that will be available on this game. I have this one at 45 and like this one as long as you can at least get the key number of 47. I understand the Lions offense is unstoppable right now with Megatron, but one of the cornerbacks who has given him the most problems in his career has been Charles Tillman. The Bears have traditionally been able to contain him as much as a mere mortal can. I suspect this one will be a defensive struggle and end in the 24-17 range. The Lions defense is just as fear imposing as their offense and that defensive line should kill Cutler. I really don't see the Bears receivers being able to do too much because Cutler is not going to have enough time to throw the ball. We cashed on the Bears/Saints under and the Bears/Packers under for the same reasons. You have an inflated line because of the opposing offense. However, the Bears defense should be able to employ their classic bend but don't break defense and keep Detroit out of the end zone a bit more than Dallas did. I expect the Bears and Martz to actually build upon their running game success and try to keep that dangerous Lions offense off the field. This will chew up clock and eliminate some quick score opportunities. I expect both defensive lines, and especially the Bears' Peppers to show up ready to play after getting some negative press. The Bears offense is pathetic according to the advanced stats and I don't expect them to all of sudden and play well on Monday night, especially after historically tanking on MNF under Lovie. The majority of all bets will come in on the over, but I suspect this one closes at 47 or less and I'm taking the under for 1x. Good luck.
      Last edited by Love The Action; 10-05-11, 06:12 AM.
      Comment
      • Redscot
        SBR MVP
        • 05-16-11
        • 2571

        #283
        Bears unders been making us some money my man, I like it.
        Comment
        • Full-Grown
          SBR High Roller
          • 12-15-10
          • 243

          #284
          Originally posted by Love The Action
          Play #3

          Bears/Lions under (48.5) 1x (Locked)

          I'm risking that this one does not go up further, however, I think this is the best number that will be available on this game. I have this one at 45 and like this one as long as you can at least get the key number of 47. I understand the Lions offense is unstoppable right now with Megatron, but one of the cornerbacks who has given him the most problems in his career has been Charles Tillman. The Bears have traditionally been able to contain him as much as a mere mortal can. I suspect this one will be a defensive struggle and end in the 24-17 range. The Lions defense is just as fear imposing as their offense and that defensive line should kill Cutler. I really don't see the Bears receivers being able to do too much because Cutler is not going to have enough time to throw the ball. We cashed on the Bears/Saints under and the Bears/Packers under for the same reasons. You have an inflated line because of the opposing offense. However, the Bears defense should be able to employ their classic bend but don't break defense and keep Detroit out of the end zone a bit more than Dallas did. I expect the Bears and Martz to actually build upon their running game success and try to keep that dangerous Lions offense off the field. This will chew up clock and eliminate some quick score opportunities. I expect both defensive lines, and especially the Bears' Peppers to show up ready to play after getting some negative press. The Bears offense is pathetic according to the advanced stats and I don't expect them to all of sudden and play well on Monday night, especially after historically tanking on MNF under Lovie. The majority of all bets will come in on the over, but I suspect this one closes at 47 or less and I'm taking the under for 1x. Good luck.

          Hey LTA, just curious how well advanced stats work in football. I have had a lot of success using them in baseball and was just wondering how well they work for you in football and how long you've been using them.
          Comment
          • Redscot
            SBR MVP
            • 05-16-11
            • 2571

            #285
            Originally posted by Full-Grown
            Hey LTA, just curious how well advanced stats work in football. I have had a lot of success using them in baseball and was just wondering how well they work for you in football and how long you've been using them.
            I second that. I am well versed in them in baseball, but my football analysis is pretty rudimentary. Any specific site's or stat's I should look in to?

            Great avatar by the way, She sure is full grown.
            Comment
            • 815Sox
              SBR MVP
              • 09-13-10
              • 1078

              #286
              I really like the Bears under. Should be a great game to watch. Cutler has been panicing when rushed (I don't blame him, the line is terrible). I agree that the Bears will be able to contain Johnson (as much as possible). I am expecting some more runs from Martz. Last year, the guy had to have a closed door meeting with the rest of the staff to make him stop throwing all the time. This was after the Giants game/fiasco. As a Bears fan, I want this to be Martz last season. He turned out better than expected, but I think the Bears do not have the talent to run his complicated system (which has really only worked with one team). The Bears know the have to come out strong defensively to win.

              Also, not 100 percent on this but I think the Bears got an extra day or two off of practice.
              Comment
              • Full-Grown
                SBR High Roller
                • 12-15-10
                • 243

                #287
                Originally posted by Redscot
                I second that. I am well versed in them in baseball, but my football analysis is pretty rudimentary. Any specific site's or stat's I should look in to? Great avatar by the way, She sure is full grown.
                Ty. Google Abella Anderson. Then you'll see why she's my avatar.
                Comment
                • Donnie Brasco
                  SBR Wise Guy
                  • 01-04-11
                  • 862

                  #288
                  Why are the bengals catching points @jax?
                  Comment
                  • Krazymojo
                    SBR Sharp
                    • 12-01-10
                    • 444

                    #289
                    I like san diego -4 better than the over and im getting it at 46 now any feedback?
                    Comment
                    • Love The Action
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 11-08-10
                      • 10952

                      #290
                      Originally posted by Redscot
                      I second that. I am well versed in them in baseball, but my football analysis is pretty rudimentary. Any specific site's or stat's I should look in to?

                      Great avatar by the way, She sure is full grown.
                      Originally posted by Full-Grown
                      Hey LTA, just curious how well advanced stats work in football. I have had a lot of success using them in baseball and was just wondering how well they work for you in football and how long you've been using them.
                      Here's some sites I use for both NFL an NCAAF advanced stats:

                      www.footballoutsiders.com
                      www.advancednflstats.com
                      www.pro-footballreference.com



                      Advanced stats are great for football. However, they do not bear nearly as much weight in football as they don in baseball. In baseball, advanced stats make up 100% of my model (along with math) and probably 90% of my overall capping for that sport. In football, there is so much more involved because that is a sport in which situational capping becomes so much more important. Scheduling, rivalries, letdowns, motivational angles, etc. are all apart of football much more than stats in general. Therefore, while I would say baseball is primarily advanced stats driven, the same cannot necessarily be said about football (or NBA for that matter).
                      Comment
                      • Love The Action
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 11-08-10
                        • 10952

                        #291
                        Originally posted by 815Sox
                        I really like the Bears under. Should be a great game to watch. Cutler has been panicing when rushed (I don't blame him, the line is terrible). I agree that the Bears will be able to contain Johnson (as much as possible). I am expecting some more runs from Martz. Last year, the guy had to have a closed door meeting with the rest of the staff to make him stop throwing all the time. This was after the Giants game/fiasco. As a Bears fan, I want this to be Martz last season. He turned out better than expected, but I think the Bears do not have the talent to run his complicated system (which has really only worked with one team). The Bears know the have to come out strong defensively to win.

                        Also, not 100 percent on this but I think the Bears got an extra day or two off of practice.
                        Comment
                        • Love The Action
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 11-08-10
                          • 10952

                          #292
                          Originally posted by Krazymojo
                          I like san diego -4 better than the over and im getting it at 46 now any feedback?
                          Not happy about that drop in the SD/Denver over...
                          Comment
                          • Krazymojo
                            SBR Sharp
                            • 12-01-10
                            • 444

                            #293
                            I just see Chargers winning by 7+
                            Comment
                            • Full-Grown
                              SBR High Roller
                              • 12-15-10
                              • 243

                              #294
                              Originally posted by Love The Action
                              Here's some sites I use for both NFL an NCAAF advanced stats:

                              www.footballoutsiders.com
                              www.advancednflstats.com
                              www.pro-footballreference.com
                              www.cfbstats.com
                              www.footballstudyhall.com

                              Advanced stats are great for football. However, they do not bear nearly as much weight in football as they don in baseball. In baseball, advanced stats make up 100% of my model (along with math) and probably 90% of my overall capping for that sport. In football, there is so much more involved because that is a sport in which situational capping becomes so much more important. Scheduling, rivalries, letdowns, motivational angles, etc. are all apart of football much more than stats in general. Therefore, while I would say baseball is primarily advanced stats driven, the same cannot necessarily be said about football (or NBA for that matter).
                              Thanks LTA.
                              Comment
                              • Redscot
                                SBR MVP
                                • 05-16-11
                                • 2571

                                #295
                                Originally posted by Love The Action
                                Here's some sites I use for both NFL an NCAAF advanced stats:

                                www.footballoutsiders.com
                                www.advancednflstats.com
                                www.pro-footballreference.com
                                www.cfbstats.com
                                www.footballstudyhall.com

                                Advanced stats are great for football. However, they do not bear nearly as much weight in football as they don in baseball. In baseball, advanced stats make up 100% of my model (along with math) and probably 90% of my overall capping for that sport. In football, there is so much more involved because that is a sport in which situational capping becomes so much more important. Scheduling, rivalries, letdowns, motivational angles, etc. are all apart of football much more than stats in general. Therefore, while I would say baseball is primarily advanced stats driven, the same cannot necessarily be said about football (or NBA for that matter).
                                Thanks my man
                                Comment
                                • CTOWNsCAPPIN
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 02-11-11
                                  • 3079

                                  #296
                                  Originally posted by Redscot
                                  Thanks my man
                                  Great Stuff Red! Thanks
                                  Comment
                                  • Redscot
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 05-16-11
                                    • 2571

                                    #297
                                    Originally posted by CTOWNsCAPPIN
                                    Great Stuff Red! Thanks
                                    I think you meant to thank LTA bro , but I'll take any love I can get
                                    Comment
                                    • Donnie Brasco
                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                      • 01-04-11
                                      • 862

                                      #298
                                      I have looked at this bengals game for 2 days and cannot figure out why they are dogs? Someone tell me why they arent the play as indicated by line move at pinny from 1-1.5!
                                      Comment
                                      • Donnie Brasco
                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                        • 01-04-11
                                        • 862

                                        #299
                                        Got bills +3 early and titans +4.5, liking line moves there!
                                        Comment
                                        • Krazymojo
                                          SBR Sharp
                                          • 12-01-10
                                          • 444

                                          #300
                                          wow chargers down to -3.5 and 45.5
                                          Comment
                                          • Love The Action
                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                            • 11-08-10
                                            • 10952

                                            #301
                                            Originally posted by Krazymojo
                                            wow chargers down to -3.5 and 45.5
                                            I still think this one goes over, but as of right now taking the over at 47 was a bad bet by me. Hopefully, we get a run on the over before gametime and it closes at 48.
                                            Comment
                                            • SpreadKiller
                                              Restricted User
                                              • 10-09-11
                                              • 18

                                              #302
                                              GL today
                                              Comment
                                              • Redscot
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 05-16-11
                                                • 2571

                                                #303
                                                Mornin' champ. Feelin' chipper over here, ready to do some serious damage today. Hit me with your best shot
                                                Comment
                                                • Redscot
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 05-16-11
                                                  • 2571

                                                  #304
                                                  Originally posted by Love The Action
                                                  I still think this one goes over, but as of right now taking the over at 47 was a bad bet by me. Hopefully, we get a run on the over before gametime and it closes at 48.
                                                  On the other hand, destroyed that Eagles total.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Love The Action
                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                    • 11-08-10
                                                    • 10952

                                                    #305
                                                    Originally posted by Love The Action
                                                    NFL 2011 Week 5

                                                    Play #1

                                                    Chargers/Broncos over (47) 1x (Locked)

                                                    I think this game finally allows us to see the full range of the Chargers offense, from the running game to the passing game. The Chargers are an interesting team because they have the ability to put up 28 points every time they touch the field, but inconsistency holds them back. In this game, I think you see them finally put together a nice performance on the road. Mile high is hard place to play, however, Denver's defense does not have the horses to stop this efficient Charger attack. If you look the advanced stat DAVE projections, the SD offense is projected to be around the 5th best offense in the league. That means they should start hitting their strides relatively soon and I think that starts in Week 5. On the other side, Denver will get you three touchdowns and I think that is the case at home this week. The Charger defense itself has been very inconsistent and I don't expect this to be a defensive intensity type game. I think we see some early scores which leads to a one dimensional Denver pass attack that gets some late meaningless points. I have this game at 51, so we're getting over a fg in value and I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

                                                    Play #2

                                                    Eagles/Bills over (49) 1.5x (Locked)

                                                    I wanted to get 48 on this one but it never materialized and only started going up. Most outlets are at 49.5 and 50, so I when I saw 49 available I had to jump on it. This should be a good old fashioned shootout, especially when we get to the 4th quarter. Both qb's can run the 2 minute offense to perfection and find those open seam rights down the hashes. There is no secret that both defenses are struggling right now, while the offenses are firing but still have room for improvement. As always, the Vick factor helps the Eagles get some undeserved first downs and creates another indefensible option at the goal line. I just don't see the Bills defense able to stop the Eagles. On the other side, the Eagles have had nothing but problems defensively and this high flying Bills attack should only add to those woes. I like this number and have this game at 53, therefore I'm rolling with the over for 1.5x. Good luck.

                                                    Play #3

                                                    Bears/Lions under (48.5) 1x (Locked)

                                                    I'm risking that this one does not go up further, however, I think this is the best number that will be available on this game. I have this one at 45 and like this one as long as you can at least get the key number of 47. I understand the Lions offense is unstoppable right now with Megatron, but one of the cornerbacks who has given him the most problems in his career has been Charles Tillman. The Bears have traditionally been able to contain him as much as a mere mortal can. I suspect this one will be a defensive struggle and end in the 24-17 range. The Lions defense is just as fear imposing as their offense and that defensive line should kill Cutler. I really don't see the Bears receivers being able to do too much because Cutler is not going to have enough time to throw the ball. We cashed on the Bears/Saints under and the Bears/Packers under for the same reasons. You have an inflated line because of the opposing offense. However, the Bears defense should be able to employ their classic bend but don't break defense and keep Detroit out of the end zone a bit more than Dallas did. I expect the Bears and Martz to actually build upon their running game success and try to keep that dangerous Lions offense off the field. This will chew up clock and eliminate some quick score opportunities. I expect both defensive lines, and especially the Bears' Peppers to show up ready to play after getting some negative press. The Bears offense is pathetic according to the advanced stats and I don't expect them to all of sudden and play well on Monday night, especially after historically tanking on MNF under Lovie. The majority of all bets will come in on the over, but I suspect this one closes at 47 or less and I'm taking the under for 1x. Good luck.
                                                    Play #4

                                                    Raiders (+5.5) 1x (Locked)

                                                    I wish I would have gotten on this earlier in the week, but I just don't have time to cap all of these games so early in the week. Nevertheless, I'm not too worried as I would not be surprised to see the Raiders win this one straight up. The Raiders may have the most explosive rushing attack in the league against an improved but still very weak Houston rush defense which is actually ranked 30th in league against the rush in DVOA efficiency rankings. Oakland's defense is not that great either, however, without Andre Johnson in the lineup for Houston, I think this will allow Oakland to focus in on Foster in order to limit the effectiveness of Houston's rushing attack and make Houston a one dimensional team. Finally, Oakland may be the best situational play on the board with the Al Davis death providing a strong motivational angle and this game coming at a big letdown point in the schedule for Houston with them having beaten the Steelers last week and scheduled to play the Ravens next week. Last week, Oakland lost to the Patriots because of multiple turnovers within NE's 10 yard line (which btw screwed us cashing on the over in that game). Although Houston's defense is improved, I think Campbell limits the turnovers and McFadden and Co. run wild today. I'm rolling with the Raiders for 1x. Good luck.

                                                    Play #5

                                                    Jets/Patriots over (50) 1x (Locked)

                                                    This number is still available but starting to go up...so if you like this play, you should get on it now. Bottom line is that the Jets defense, even though still highly ranked in the advanced efficiency stats, is susceptible to the big play as shown in the last two weeks by the Ravens and Oakland. Today, they will be facing Tom Brady and the Pats ultra-effiecient and powerful offense. Bottom line is that the Pats are going to get you a minimum of 4 touchdowns week in and week out. The question is if they will score more. I'm not so sure they will today, but I expect a much better showing from the Jets offense against a weak NE defense than they showed against the Ravens last week. I almost want to back the Jets today on the side, but I missed the +10's that were out there earlier in the week and I think a play on the over is the better alternative. The Jets should be an active dog today and I expect them to score at least three touchdowns against NE. Both teams should be able to move the ball today and make no mistake that both coaches will have their teams fired up and ready to go today. I think some might expect a defensive showing because both Belicheck and Ryan are defensive guys. However, in this game, offense will rule and I expect a final score in the 31-24 range. I'm rolling with the over in this spot for 1x. Good luck.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Love The Action
                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                      • 11-08-10
                                                      • 10952

                                                      #306
                                                      ACTION TEASER (Not for records win or lose)

                                                      Bills (+9)/Raiders (+11.5)/Titans (+9.5)

                                                      This one pays out at +180, so I'm going to take a shot. Generally, I will make official plays on two-team teasers where I wager my normal amount. My action wagers are usually about 1/4 of my normal unit stake. In this case, I am very confident in this teaswer and will be playing it for more than my usual action amount. As you know, I love the Raiders today as they are my highest ranked dog. My next highest ranked dog is the Titans and then the Bills. I'm going to tease them all for some fun and see what happens. Good luck.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Donnie Brasco
                                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                                        • 01-04-11
                                                        • 862

                                                        #307
                                                        Cinncy line finally did what i thought it should, glad i got it early in the week! Jax has nothing this year
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Donnie Brasco
                                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                                          • 01-04-11
                                                          • 862

                                                          #308
                                                          Is mangold in for jets today? If not, cant see them scoring much with the center play i saw last week. Granted pats def is not balty tho.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Love The Action
                                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                                            • 11-08-10
                                                            • 10952

                                                            #309
                                                            Originally posted by Love The Action
                                                            NFL 2011 Week 5

                                                            Play #1

                                                            Chargers/Broncos over (47) 1x (Locked)

                                                            I think this game finally allows us to see the full range of the Chargers offense, from the running game to the passing game. The Chargers are an interesting team because they have the ability to put up 28 points every time they touch the field, but inconsistency holds them back. In this game, I think you see them finally put together a nice performance on the road. Mile high is hard place to play, however, Denver's defense does not have the horses to stop this efficient Charger attack. If you look the advanced stat DAVE projections, the SD offense is projected to be around the 5th best offense in the league. That means they should start hitting their strides relatively soon and I think that starts in Week 5. On the other side, Denver will get you three touchdowns and I think that is the case at home this week. The Charger defense itself has been very inconsistent and I don't expect this to be a defensive intensity type game. I think we see some early scores which leads to a one dimensional Denver pass attack that gets some late meaningless points. I have this game at 51, so we're getting over a fg in value and I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

                                                            Play #2

                                                            Eagles/Bills over (49) 1.5x (Locked)

                                                            I wanted to get 48 on this one but it never materialized and only started going up. Most outlets are at 49.5 and 50, so I when I saw 49 available I had to jump on it. This should be a good old fashioned shootout, especially when we get to the 4th quarter. Both qb's can run the 2 minute offense to perfection and find those open seam rights down the hashes. There is no secret that both defenses are struggling right now, while the offenses are firing but still have room for improvement. As always, the Vick factor helps the Eagles get some undeserved first downs and creates another indefensible option at the goal line. I just don't see the Bills defense able to stop the Eagles. On the other side, the Eagles have had nothing but problems defensively and this high flying Bills attack should only add to those woes. I like this number and have this game at 53, therefore I'm rolling with the over for 1.5x. Good luck.

                                                            Play #3

                                                            Bears/Lions under (48.5) 1x (Locked)

                                                            I'm risking that this one does not go up further, however, I think this is the best number that will be available on this game. I have this one at 45 and like this one as long as you can at least get the key number of 47. I understand the Lions offense is unstoppable right now with Megatron, but one of the cornerbacks who has given him the most problems in his career has been Charles Tillman. The Bears have traditionally been able to contain him as much as a mere mortal can. I suspect this one will be a defensive struggle and end in the 24-17 range. The Lions defense is just as fear imposing as their offense and that defensive line should kill Cutler. I really don't see the Bears receivers being able to do too much because Cutler is not going to have enough time to throw the ball. We cashed on the Bears/Saints under and the Bears/Packers under for the same reasons. You have an inflated line because of the opposing offense. However, the Bears defense should be able to employ their classic bend but don't break defense and keep Detroit out of the end zone a bit more than Dallas did. I expect the Bears and Martz to actually build upon their running game success and try to keep that dangerous Lions offense off the field. This will chew up clock and eliminate some quick score opportunities. I expect both defensive lines, and especially the Bears' Peppers to show up ready to play after getting some negative press. The Bears offense is pathetic according to the advanced stats and I don't expect them to all of sudden and play well on Monday night, especially after historically tanking on MNF under Lovie. The majority of all bets will come in on the over, but I suspect this one closes at 47 or less and I'm taking the under for 1x. Good luck.

                                                            Play #4

                                                            Raiders (+5.5) 1x (Locked)

                                                            I wish I would have gotten on this earlier in the week, but I just don't have time to cap all of these games so early in the week. Nevertheless, I'm not too worried as I would not be surprised to see the Raiders win this one straight up. The Raiders may have the most explosive rushing attack in the league against an improved but still very weak Houston rush defense which is actually ranked 30th in league against the rush in DVOA efficiency rankings. Oakland's defense is not that great either, however, without Andre Johnson in the lineup for Houston, I think this will allow Oakland to focus in on Foster in order to limit the effectiveness of Houston's rushing attack and make Houston a one dimensional team. Finally, Oakland may be the best situational play on the board with the Al Davis death providing a strong motivational angle and this game coming at a big letdown point in the schedule for Houston with them having beaten the Steelers last week and scheduled to play the Ravens next week. Last week, Oakland lost to the Patriots because of multiple turnovers within NE's 10 yard line (which btw screwed us cashing on the over in that game). Although Houston's defense is improved, I think Campbell limits the turnovers and McFadden and Co. run wild today. I'm rolling with the Raiders for 1x. Good luck.

                                                            Play #5

                                                            Jets/Patriots over (50) 1x (Locked)

                                                            This number is still available but starting to go up...so if you like this play, you should get on it now. Bottom line is that the Jets defense, even though still highly ranked in the advanced efficiency stats, is susceptible to the big play as shown in the last two weeks by the Ravens and Oakland. Today, they will be facing Tom Brady and the Pats ultra-effiecient and powerful offense. Bottom line is that the Pats are going to get you a minimum of 4 touchdowns week in and week out. The question is if they will score more. I'm not so sure they will today, but I expect a much better showing from the Jets offense against a weak NE defense than they showed against the Ravens last week. I almost want to back the Jets today on the side, but I missed the +10's that were out there earlier in the week and I think a play on the over is the better alternative. The Jets should be an active dog today and I expect them to score at least three touchdowns against NE. Both teams should be able to move the ball today and make no mistake that both coaches will have their teams fired up and ready to go today. I think some might expect a defensive showing because both Belicheck and Ryan are defensive guys. However, in this game, offense will rule and I expect a final score in the 31-24 range. I'm rolling with the over in this spot for 1x. Good luck.
                                                            Play #6

                                                            Bengals/Jaguars under (37) 1x (Locked)

                                                            I was hoping to get 38 but it just never materialized and one of locals moved to 36.5, so I'm locking this one in now right on the key number of 37. Bottom line is that you have two solid defenses going against two weak offenses led by rookie quarterbacks. That, to me, is the key. I expect both coaches to try to move the ball on the ground with Benson and Jones-Drew as their only true offensive weapons on this team. This should be a ball-control smash-mouth game and I'm hoping we see a punt fest. As long as we don't see any pick-6's, fumbles returns for TD's or kick return TD's, we should cash this one. I expect a 17-10 type score and I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.
                                                            Last edited by Love The Action; 10-09-11, 11:40 AM.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Love The Action
                                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                                              • 11-08-10
                                                              • 10952

                                                              #310
                                                              Originally posted by Donnie Brasco
                                                              Is mangold in for jets today? If not, cant see them scoring much with the center play i saw last week. Granted pats def is not balty tho.
                                                              Yes, Mangold is starting.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Redscot
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 05-16-11
                                                                • 2571

                                                                #311
                                                                Originally posted by Love The Action
                                                                Play #5

                                                                Bengals/Jaguars under (37) 1x (Locked)

                                                                I was hoping to get 38 but it just never materialized and one of locals moved to 36.5, so I'm locking this one in now right on the key number of 37. Bottom line is that you have two solid defenses going against two weak offenses led by rookie quarterbacks. That, to me, is the key. I expect both coaches to try to move the ball on the ground with Benson and Jones-Drew as their only true offensive weapons on this team. This should be a ball-control smash-mouth game and I'm hoping we see a punt fest. As long as we don't see any pick-6's, fumbles returns for TD's or kick return TD's, we should cash this one. I expect a 17-10 type score and I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.
                                                                Think it's pretty breezy there today with some inclement weather expected as well.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Love The Action
                                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                                  • 11-08-10
                                                                  • 10952

                                                                  #312
                                                                  That Chargers/Broncos total is starting to creep back up...back at 47 at some outlets and 46.5 at 5D/Pinny. Hopefully it closes about 47....would give me some small consolation on that play to beat the closer even though we didn't get the best number that was once available.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • MasterEOD
                                                                    SBR Rookie
                                                                    • 09-04-11
                                                                    • 46

                                                                    #313
                                                                    Thanks LTA...running with you again
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • MasterEOD
                                                                      SBR Rookie
                                                                      • 09-04-11
                                                                      • 46

                                                                      #314
                                                                      LTA...or anyone...opinion/analysis on the NO/CAR OVER 51...
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • Krazymojo
                                                                        SBR Sharp
                                                                        • 12-01-10
                                                                        • 444

                                                                        #315
                                                                        What about that saints/panthers total I like over here 51.5
                                                                        Comment
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