pats oakland OVER wont hit brahmabull just posted a lock for that line
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I lean under in the Pitt/Hou game and no lean right now in the NYG/AZ game.
I expect a defensive struggle as opposed to an offensive shootout in Houston. Both defenses are rounding into shape and Houston is much improved from last year. I have not really gotten to in depth on the AZ game. Good luck.Comment -
Sounds like he'll finally have a winner on his hands.
That really means nothing though. I locked that in early on Monday right at open. I doubt he got the same number as me.
Brahma is just an inexperienced guy that likes being the center of attention and being a polarizing figure. He's probably an OK dude, but acts a little too "douchebaggy" for my taste around these parts. It's all just a schtick though. I have no problems with Brah and hope he wins.
Plus, as the old saying goes, every blind squirrel finds a nut.Comment -
Looks like I missed the total move off the key number of 44 down to 43.5 in the Bears/Panthers game. I really like the under at 44 or higher, but was hoping to get 44.5 so I waited. Damn.Comment -
We're looking good on our two totals bets on the Pats/Raiders over which we got at 53 and is now 55 at some books and the Jets/Ravens over which we got at 40 and is now at the key number of 41.
I really like the Jets in that game as you can tell from me taking them at +3.5. I see a 23-31 type game.Comment -
I'm still relatively new to SBR and have only discovered your threads yesterday, LTA. Very impressive capping, much respect, sir and hope you won't mind if I tail your plays with confidence
I have just finished my MLB betting season with a nice profit (I'm playing a system of my own and a 1st inning labby) and I would love to continue, adding your plays to my fall season arsenal.
Thanks for sharing your plays and write-ups, good luck
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Hey LTA, would you still take the over in the BAL/Jets Game at 41.5 ? and what do you think about Broncos/Packers over 46 ?Comment -
I'm still relatively new to SBR and have only discovered your threads yesterday, LTA. Very impressive capping, much respect, sir and hope you won't mind if I tail your plays with confidence
I have just finished my MLB betting season with a nice profit (I'm playing a system of my own and a 1st inning labby) and I would love to continue, adding your plays to my fall season arsenal.
Thanks for sharing your plays and write-ups, good luck
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That's tough because now you are crossing the key number of 41. That's a vitally important key number in football and how the books make their money. Sometimes you have to be disciplined and not take plays you really like when they cross key numbers. With that said, however, I like this game to hit 45 or more. At the end of the day, it's your call.
I will say that I missed out on the Bears under and Saints/Jax unders because they moved past certain key numbers, below which I can no longer play them.
I think the number 46 is pretty accurate for the Packers game. I have no lean, but gun to my head I would rather have the under at 47 than the over at 46.
Good luck in whatever you choose.
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Play #7
Bengals (+3) 1x (Locked)
Based on their advanced efficiency stats, you will see one of the best offenses in the league square off against one of the best defenses. The Bengals will pound the ball all day long with Benson and rely on play action to protect Dalton. Everyone is the Bills expecting an easy win, yet this one never sniffed 3.5...and I was waiting. In fact, heavy money came in on the Bengals tonight. The Bills still need to prove themselves on the road. I am getting on this one now and I'll roll with the Bengals at home for 1x . Good luck.Comment -
LTA, just a note to tell you i'm now a dedicated disciple of all three of your current threads (don't worry...i'm not a myopic cherry-pickin' bitchnmoaner...i'm a "long-haul" appreciator of your approach to value-hunting)...there are two reasons i've decided to become an LTA-only guy
1. the investment-grade yield over time, of course (aka. "the bottom line")..and equally as important for me...
2. the education i get along the way as you, RedScot (and NoCoin, too, when he pops in...and increasingly MBP) discuss the reasoning behind every play on your board
good luck to all of us going forwardComment -
Thanks LTA for your wisdom and your great picks. You are a true gentleman. I am with you for all picks, and I love every one of them.
My only problem is funding. Needed to wait for your NCAA picks to win to have the funding I needed for NFL. So some of my lines are better than yours now, and some a lot worse.Comment -
There may be guys who go on better streaks, but I believe in LTA long term because of his approach, his analysis and his discipline. Another thing that separates him is his willingness to share his reasoning with us all. Appreciate the kind words as well Fitguy, I like to provide at least a sounding board for him at times, I have always been an avid sports fan but have learned a lot more about how and when to wager from LTA. Alright enough of that, we're gonna give LTA a big head 
. Let's make some money today.
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Thanks guys...you are too kind. Your words are very humbling. Good luck on your plays today...let's make some money! There may be guys who go on better streaks, but I believe in LTA long term because of his approach, his analysis and his discipline. Another thing that separates him is his willingness to share his reasoning with us all. Appreciate the kind words as well Fitguy, I like to provide at least a sounding board for him at times, I have always been an avid sports fan but have learned a lot more about how and when to wager from LTA. Alright enough of that, we're gonna give LTA a big head . Let's make some money today.
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Play #8
Saints (-7)(-105) 1x (Locked)
I'll risk the push and lay the seven points. I should have locked this one in earlier this week when it was available for 6.5. However, I actually liked the under a little more at that time and was contemplating taking that until I missed out on line move down to 45. The more I look at this play, the more I like the Saints. I expect Greg Williams' blitzing defense to give the rookie Gabbert a very hard time with different looks. On the other side, even though the Jax defense is the best part of the team, I just don't think they can stop this high powered Saints attack without an offense to keep the Saints off the field. The Saints can score quick and Brees is at the top of his game. I suspect we see a 10 point Saints win today and I'm rolling with them for 1x. Good luck.Comment -
Hey LTA, like your picks today. What do you think about the Bengals ML instead of +3 ?Comment -
i've noticed, like a poster a page or so ago (RS or MBP, I think) that for ml bets prices/odds seem to overlap quite a bit (meaning if you miss the price you want, just like a bus...you can usually wait for it to "come around again")...but once a "spread" or "total" amount moves, it's often "gone for good"...at some books, like pinny, it's usually still possible to buy the number you want as long as it hasn't moved too far (but for a price that may no longer be "worth it")...and sometimes the old number (like the 53 for the NEng over or the 40 for the NYJ over) it isn't likely to ever be available again...
meaning that for "locking in" totals or handicap bets there's in general a bit more "urgency" (when u see it, grab it...cuz u might not see it again)...vs. moneyline plays which tend to be less prone to sustained unilateral moves and thus more conducive to patiently waiting for a bargain-price to return
is this a valid generalization?Last edited by fitguy67; 10-02-11, 09:41 AM.Comment -
Good luck to you too. I was eyeing the Sanits as well but did not do it until now. Thanks for convincing me.Comment -
Really upset about missing out on that Bears under at 44...it's all the way down to 42 and I just don't think I can play it that low since i have it capped at 41. I had three points of variance, which is now down to one. That's not a winning proposition over time...Comment -
I like it a lot
I just think its safer to take the points. The Bills have quick strike offense, so even if the Bengals are ahead at the end of the game, it would not surprise me to see the Bills get a quick drive to end the game with a FG. You're definitely safer with the points, but as a gambling man you could get aggressive with the ML. Good luck in whatever you choose.Comment -
The totals market does not get nearly as much action as the Books receive on sides. Consequently, once the books take a big bet on a total, it's going to affect that much more than on a side. It's not uncommon to see totals move by 3 or 4 points throughout the week. However, you rarely see sides move that much. The Books are taking a ton of money on side bets, and if they have done their job right, they get action on both sides of the wager. Therefore, you may see the odds on a side wager move a half point, but then come right back later in the week. Just like in baseball, markets for sides are more efficient than totals. Therefore, you can get good value on totals if you can consistently and accurately predict which way the market will react to an opening total number and jumping on that opener early.Comment -
think this my fav of the bunch, altho i do like that dal/det under as well. honestly still gotta look at rest of your card, went to casino last night, nothing like pissing away a little hard earned col fb money
actually played ML on cincy, was hoping to get a 3.5 at some point but obviously not happening. Huge letdown spot for Bills, cincy is the best defense they have faced so far, just hoping that buf d is so bad that it will make cincy offense look respectable.
BOL LTA and friends.Comment -
think this my fav of the bunch, altho i do like that dal/det under as well. honestly still gotta look at rest of your card, went to casino last night, nothing like pissing away a little hard earned col fb money
actually played ML on cincy, was hoping to get a 3.5 at some point but obviously not happening. Huge letdown spot for Bills, cincy is the best defense they have faced so far, just hoping that buf d is so bad that it will make cincy offense look respectable.
BOL LTA and friends.
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I'll start getting you guys some in-depth writeups next week which incorporate more of the efficiency stats I use. They should be much more reliable now that we are getting through four weeks. With all the action in three sports going on right now, I have not had much time for writeups.Comment -
Play #9
Panthers/Bears under (42) 0.50x (Locked)
I didn't get the opener of 44, so I'm risking that this game doesn't end on the key numbers of 44 and 43. I really love this play though, so even though I'm not getting the best number, at least I win on the most important key number of 41. I have this one capped at 41, but there has been heavy action on the under despite most bets on the over. I think Ron Rivera knows how to play this Bears team and will be able to stop Cutler and his weak receiving corps. On the other side, Newton struggles when you drop guys back in coverage, as opposed to blitzing when there are less DB's back there to defend the pass. This makes Newton think and forces him to make the right decisions. Because he's so young, he's not ready for that part of the game. I expect the Bears to rush four guys and to just let Newton make mistakes. I see a 17-10 type game and I'm rolling with the under for 0.50x. Good luck.Comment -
Damn. Didnt see the Chicago play before game time.Comment -
Glad I didn't post that Bears under with enough time for you or anyone else to tail. That's going to be a big loser...20 points in the first quarter thanks to pick 6 that Newton threw to the Bears. Oh well, I kept it light on that one with a half unit so, hopefully it doesn't hurt me too bad.Comment -
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Best of luck with picks today my friend!!!!...So much on tap I guess Breaking Bad is gonna get DVR'd tonight!!!
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Ya. That definitely is not good in the first quarter for an under. Good luck anyhow. I doubt anyone had time to tail as you said.Comment
