Capy's 2011 NFL Thread (149-118 Every-Game-ATS in 2010 SBR Thread)

[Capybara]

All right, let's fukkin do this!

First off, the bookkeeping:

So much for the 7 straight weeks of positive units! Last weekend we went 2-2 ATS and 2-4 in plays Steelers/Tebow buried me. Oh well. So:

Every-game-ATS: 130-118-12
Best-bet plays: 71-59-5

Today:

Been tempted by several statistics to come off my strong initial lean of Saints... the whole outdoors thing, the top defense of the Niners, the road-fave leaving their comfy dome and traveling to face the hungry home dog... But I just don't think those particular stats overcome the specialness of this Saints team. AND, the fact that the Saints blew one last year as the road fave should have them ALL TOO AWARE of the possibility of that happening again if they're not fully prepared. This Payton/Brees combo should be able to undo all the good stuff that Harbaugh/Willis/J. Smith etc. have had going. Maybe not at first, but in the end. I expect a very good game but the Saints surviving it and coming out on top. So...

New Orleans -3 (2x)

[Capybara]

Added a unit to New Orleans, so it's now:

New Orleans -3 (3x)

And not in love with it, but decided to play:

NO/SF Under 47 (1x)

[Capybara]

As for Game 2, I really think Denver maxed out their potential last week against a Steelers team that was already gimpy and had guys dropping like flies in that game. This week, they get a Pats team whose had two weeks to prepare, who already beat them relatively easily. And similar to the Saints having blown one last year in surprising fashion, the Pats have blown two playoff games in a row at home when much more was expected of them. What do you think the chances are they do that again?? -- In case you haven't noticed, Brady is a pretty strong-willed competitor. That shit's been eating at him for a looong time, with him just WAITING for a chance to get the Pats back to winning playoff games, like back when they were 14-2 in playoff games before David Tyree fukked it all up.

Now 13.5 is a LOT, and crazy shit can happen in the playoffs, so I am not hitting this too strong, but it's still a play:

New England -13.5 (1x)

Two combo plays:

6.5-pt teaser: New Orleans +3.5/New England -7 (2x)

Parlay: New Orleans ML/New England ML (2x)

[Capybara]

Well, might get buried, but I'm not gonna stop now:

2H New Orleans -4 (1x)

[Capybara]

2H New England -6.5

Also, I won a 1H -7.5 that I could not post cuz I was on the subway on the way to a party, and I am fukkin including it after the Saints buried me!

[Capybara]

All right, what I've come up with for today is this teaser:

6-pt teaser: Baltimore -1.5/Green Bay -1.5 (3x)

Baltimore's been waiting and waiting to finally get their home playoff game since they're a zillion times better at home. Houston is a tough and physical team, but facts are facts and they're playing a rookie QB. So they are totally depending on wearing the Ravens down with a consistently successful run game that has to gain yards on first and/or second down. Too much to count on.

The Giants have plenty of momentum and are the trendy dark-horse pick to get to and/or win the Super Bowl now, but everyone seems to be forgetting that the Packers were the best team in the NFL all year, and they've had an extra week to rest and prepare. If you notice, the Giants did get pressure on Rodgers in the first game, and guess what, it made no difference. Eventually Rodgers is gonna get his and the Packers are gonna win. Eli has been awesome and will make plays, but I predict a couple of big misplays by the Giants' offense and opportunistic TO's for the Pack that lead to points.

Would be nice to hit this since the Saints fukked me royally yesterday, a game I believe I capped correctly... you cannot cap FIVE fukkin turnovers. After all those, it still took a last-minute perfect drive to beat them.

[Capybara]

Oh, forgot to say that those are my official ATS picks for the thread record as well (but NO ATS plays). So it's:

Baltimore -7.5
Green Bay -7.5

Don't actually even like these, but I hate the other side as well, LOL!

[Capybara]

2H Hou/Balt under 19.5 (1x)

[Capybara]

2H Hou/Balt under 19.5 (1x)

That was just about the easiest 2H play ever.

Gonna try and ride that momentum into the following two 1H plays:

1H NYG/GB Under 27.5 (1x)

1H Green Bay -5.5 (1x)

[shocktopme]

.

How bout my Niners bud!!!!!!!!Pulling for Giants now!!!!We dont wanna go to GB!!!!Will take the Giants at home though!!!!!!!!

[Capybara]

It's Championship Sunday!!

I think all four plays today are really fukking tough to predict, and thus for the most part I just am going to watch these games and enjoy them. Any large plays I make will be determined in-game, either live bets or 2H bets.

I'm going to stick with my initial gut in terms of the ATS picks: They are:

New England -7

NY Giants +2

I can't help but make some SMALL plays, and they are:

NY Giants +2

6.5-pt teaser: NE -.5/NYG + 8.5

6.5-pt teaser: NE Under 55/ NYG +8.5

New England -7

Best of luck to all!

[Capybara]

NY Giants +2 W

6.5-pt teaser: NE -.5/NYG + 8.5 W

6.5-pt teaser: NE Under 55/ NYG +8.5 W

New England -7 L

Best of luck to all!

Cash 'em! Plus four units (2x on teasers).

[Capybara]

All right, time to make my SB XLVI prediction and plays, no use wasting any more time...

I've broken this thing down six ways to Sunday, and no matter how you slice it, I really think it's going to go down to the final two minutes of the game. I'll be really surprised if it's not 24-24, 27-27, or 30-30 in the fourth quarter. If the OT prop had a little more value (+760 is not gonna cut it), I'd probably play it!

The ATS wager I'm going to play is:

New England -2.5 -115 2x

I understand why everyone and his brother likes the Giants ML or the Giants +3 in this game. Yes, the Giants are the better balanced team, with lots of playmakers on BOTH sides of the ball, where the Pats are considered the offensive team with a couple of nice players on D but too many bad ones... and yes, the Giants have got that "momentum" of beating favored road teams to get here. (However, what about the Pats' momentum of having won 10 straight games? What is that, meaningless?) But I think all the Giants backers are getting a little clouded on some issues...

1) What are the odds that Belichick and Brady lose for the THIRD straight time to any team? Belichick is already amazing at taking down teams when he's played them before and has had a chance to see what will work and what won't, and now it's even a rematch in a SB against a team who killed a perfect season. And Brady, an acknowledged competitor of few equals, has had four years to stew from having his perfect season eviscerated, not to mention having everyone telling him how he's lucky to be here since he sucked against the Ravens (which he also acknowledges, and this guy hates NOTHING more than playing poorly and letting his team down -- it's his ultimate motivator). I mean I would not bet against these two.

2) Everyone talks about the Giants D-Line, and for sure they are great, but you also need to look at how great the Pats O-Line has been playing. How did the Ravens do at getting to Brady? They didn't. And that's a Hall-of-Fame defense right there. AND, the Ravens cover better than the Giants. If the Giants have similar trouble pressuring Brady, will their linebackers and DB's hold things down in back?

3) On the opposite side, I see Belichick getting creative to get pressure on Manning. The Giants' O-Line is NOT what it was four years ago. The Pats have guys, some known (Wilfork, Mayo), some less known (Love, Ninkovich), who I believe will make life tough on Eli and force him into at least one bad play (he's gotten away with some lately) that will turn into points. Eli has been awesome, but he's still prone to some errors in judgment during games.

Obviously any Pats backer has to see some real areas of concern. Number one is Gronkowski's health -- that is actually the reason I am only going to go 2x on this play -- and another is the potential Bradshaw could have to get outside and make some nice chunks of yardage. But ultimately I just think Belichick and Brady will be more ready for this ultimate chess match than Coughlin and Eli, so I'll take the Pats.

I will probably make some other plays as well on some attractive props, but wanted to at least get this one recorded in here. Definitely no play on the O/U.

[Dexter]

nice write up.....hopefully pats win by 3 and we both cash.

[Capybara]

Three random props I played :

WHO WILL SUPER BOWL MVP OF THE GAME THANK FIRST?
Teammates +175

Julian Edelman TOT REC+RUSH YRDS o8½ -105

Aaron Hernandez LONGEST PASS RECEP TOTAL o20 -118