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SIMULATORS, TOUT SHEETS SDQL, I READ THEM ALL EVERY WEEK, SOME HAVE GOOD ANGLES AND TRENDS, BUT UNDERSTAND (THEY REFLECT THE PAST) NOT THE PRESENT(DATA-MINING)......... i LEARNED FROM A VERY WISE CAPPER IN ANOTHER FORUM, THAT NO GAME IS WORTH MORE THAN ANY OTHER , IN TERMS OF UNITS,
WAGERED..DUE TO THE VARIANCE FACTOR IN EVERY GAME (IE TURNOVERS).......WHICH ARE WORTH 4 POINTS, RECENTLY POSTED SOMETHING IN lb'S THREAD ABOUT THIS.....YOU CANNOT HANDICAP VARIANCE..THERE IS NO LOGIC THAT ONE GAME IS 'WORTH MORE THAN ANY OTHER.......PEOPLE ARE HERE FOR DIFFERENT REASONS, SOME BET ON-LINE, SOME BET WITH A LOCAL, AND PAY AND GET PAID WEEKLY.....I AM IN THE LATTER.....FOR EXAMPLE ...I WON 300.00, SAT ON ...ON NCAA, LOST 300.00 THE WEEK BEFORE.....LAIDOFF SUNDAY.....TOUGH TO DO...BUT WHEN YOU SEE WHAT HAPPENED ON SUNDAY......THE IDEA IS TO PUT A SET LIMIT IN YOUR MIND TO WIN OR LOSE, EACH WEEK, DEPENDING ON YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION...FLAT BET, NO PARLEYS, TEASERS' ACTION REVERSES, "GET OUT" WHEN YOU HIT THAT THRESHOLD GET OUT......GAMBLING IS LIKE THE THE OCEAN..ALWAYS GOING TO BE THERE ....... YOU CAN BET ON SOMETHING EVERY DAY OF THE WEEK...when you are up you are playing with your money....not the books, that is a misconception,....... proof of that is when you lose it all back .....sucks to lose your paycheck doesn't it ?????......most here do not have the resources to do that, approach it as a part-time job, ......that way you have a enjoyable hobby...try to win a few bucks....
try to spot value........within the line and public perception, what happened the week..before means nothing....real tough to win more than 4 or 5 games in a row
Last edited by JR007; 11-08-11, 01:18 PM.Comment -
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John any opinion on the bowling green total? I was looking to tease bowling green and maybe the under.Comment -
John do you have a play for thursday?Comment -
JR i have no interest in bashing or disagreeing with you on anything I think were both here to do the same thing. Enjoy sport's learn as much as we can and make better capper's out of ourselves your a valued contributer to this post and i just disagreed with the r.o.i thing is all. I appreciate your write up earlier on what our goals are and it totally agrees with my philosophy on gambling as well so i got no beef at all. Wish you the best of luck and look forward to any input you've got on good plays. I posted yesterday about how the stats are starting to blur things and special teams and turnovers are accounting for alot these latter parts of the season and i'm looking into things like punt yards equalling good feild position and turnovers as well as returns punt and kickoff also early odds in the week are the things I believe gives us cappers the only "edge" ( if there is such a thing ) over the books this time of year i totally agree they have it nailed shut when it comes to there spreads but early lines and good defensive as well as special teams play and turnovers I think get more important as things go along in the season. BOL......spike..... B.T.W I am a newbie at this and any other threads you can reccomend that pertains to college Basketball or other things where you see softer spot's for us i'd be more than interested in.Comment -
John im looking forward to your incite on the 49ers game this sunday. I have been on a hot streak with them the past weeks and unfortunatly I got hasty and locked them in monday at +3.5. With the spread going down to 3 allready, do you see it moving anymore? And do you like this play?Comment -
hou @ tb
So according to the 375 total yards and 100+ yards more than the opponent two weeks in a row theory you would go with the bucs here? texans have had 500+ against tennesee 358 against jax and 380 against cleveland the last three weeks. Bucs are at home where they've beat atlanta and new orleans this year. What are you thinking?Comment -
john was wondering do you work for this site and sell your picks??? I know you have threads here and love following them, do you sell your better picks because if you do mayber interested in getting them.just wondering.http://www.capperspicks.com/sportsca...20Ryan/AF23_15.Comment -
Ok.. 5* Play 'OVER' Raiders/Chargers.Comment -
Play 'over' with any team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points and is a good passing team averaging 7 or more passing yards per attempt and after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt in two straight games.This system has gone a solid 42-18 ATS since 2000. 48% of these plays have covered the spread by 7 or more points. The sim shows an 84% probability that 50 or more points will be scored in this game. Moreover, there is a 76% probability that both teams will score 27 or more points each.
The matchups clearly favor the AFC Wild West shootout of old. McFadden is out. Although he is a huge loss, the Raiders still enjoy favorable situations attacking the perimeter and deep middle of the Chargers secondary. Raiders will spread the field and this in turn will open up strong run lanes.. I am confident that the Chargers will have no difficulty moving the ball on offense and scoring points. This does not mean I like SD. I live the TOTAL play 'OVER'Comment -
Th Raiders will sue their front four to get pressure on Rivers and use max coverage on passing downs. Rivers leads the NFL with 14 interceptions. Rivers has shown that he can check down and take what is given and that will be the game plan.
Raiders offensive coordinator Al Saunders and Palmer will look to go with more of a short, controlled passing attack, especially early on. Here again, the Chargers can't bring the heat knowing that Palmer can throw the long ball. The Raiders used numerous vertical passing routes with success against Denver and the Chargers cannot get stuck in man coverage and fail to sack Palmer. Lots of ball control underneath routes by both teams tonight. BOL to everyone and thanksComment -
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JR cleared all that up. He has been nothing but great all year long and as a OKIE where your word means something I believe him when he says it's not..I love gettting his picks and hope they keep on coming I feel a 5-0 run coming.Comment -
5-0 would be nice. But we have hit the current pace and record by playing one game at a time. Tonights game is over for 5 star unit play. Thanks to all for making this a great thread.Comment -
The under is the play tonight. Norv Turner is going to get it done on the ground because the Raiders are not going to let Rivers beat them through the air. They will play a lot of nickle dime packages. Also since Carson Palmer and Rivers are both STRUGGLIN' - Both teams want to play a ball control game. Public is all over the over.Last edited by tzMoney; 11-10-11, 05:52 PM.Comment -
Folowing your pick tonight, John, i have a good feeling this week!Comment -
for what its worth my system as well shows the game going over. Hope we hit on it.Comment -
GL tonight John!Comment -
Hello all, I'm new to the forum. is a 5* play your lowest play, i saw a 10* play, and 20* would be the highest play???Comment -
The Raiders are 3rd in the league in rush d. and 19th in the league in pass d. - so they may have no say in weather or not Rivers beats them through the air. He may be throwing a ton of picks, but that doesn't seem to be affecting the offensive scheme too much, and we all know Rivers is not going to be afraid to keep throwing it. On the other side of the ball, the Raiders seem to think that Palmer is going to continue to gain confidence if they show they have faith in his throwing ability, and the combo to Denarius Moore is just going to get better. The way the Broncos ran all over the raiders should be a good sign for Tolbert too, but that may have just been confusion from the read option they were facing. I think the over is good - but we'll see in a little while.....Comment -
John, what's your ytd with nfl/ncaaf this season?Comment -
62 percentComment -
Public loves the over & u/o is at 47.5 now opening at 51. Whats going on?Comment -
with Mcfadden out do they have any choice but to go to the air? also both teams Q.B's are struggling right now with int's this should lead to some turnover's, good feild pos, and possible pick 6's so under that line of thought the over looks great but LOL theres alway's a "BUT" isnt there? The total has gone UNDER in 7 of San Diego's last 8 games at home as well as The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oakland's last 6 games when playing on the road against San Diego. and again another "BUT" that is when both q.b's had running games going as well as turnover ratio's were much lower. to be honest with you if I had to pick I'd say you got this one analyzed very well as usual John. "BUT" it makes me nervous when theres not much running game to open up the pass attack and it seems as much as I've been touting that turnover's are a huge difference in games this year, scoring wise. I'm having a hard time pulling the trigger at 5 unit's on this one tonight. Info I have also show's that public is favoring the over as well not sure if i wanna say where i got that from but it's legit. and theres always that 53 - 54% win on fading the public especially on big t.v and highly watched games I.E Monday night , thur. night and big rivalry's that attract a big audience that stat goes up to the 54% plus side. I'm sure you've got this correct but I'm just hangin and waiting till i get the gumption (BALL'S) up for a 5 unit bet on an o/u play I've always hated watchin games where I was betting the o/u instead of the spread or M.L. B.O.L to all as alway's and someone convince me to pull the trigger here lol..........spike........ B.T.W I'll be looking for that c.b.b thread John as always thanks for the hard work and insight!Comment -
all plays as far as I know are based off units bet and yes the lowest is the 5 unit play but those are the best picks of the week anything higher is a treat and has more data to back it up as well as being more rare so 5 units are his best picks for the week so the 5 unit wager doesnt mean less confidence it just means it's one of his best plays of the week. he only puts out 4 or 5 N.F.L plays at most! ........spike....... hope thats right lol.Comment -
Are u an idiot??? anyone with a computer can copy and paste!
I talked to JR and I think he is being honest If you don't then stay out of this thread you CREEPER. Go stalk someone on Facebook.matter of fact start your own thread and make some picks...This dude has done nothing but hand out FREE WINNERs and not once asked anyone in this thread for a DOLLAR~ I saw his name out there and really just wanted too find out what was up. What he told me made alot of since..I am sure he would answer any ?????"s you have but I have a feeling your a DOUCHE and it wouldn't matter.So fade away Creeper.
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Laugh..
