2011 NFL Pro Picks with John Ryan

[quintaris23]

Not sure if you can read english or if your working on your TOFEL but look at my last post I won on that game.

Here is to John crushing the under!! (which was his biggest play)

[John Ryan]

John,

I'm behind your picks all the way, but I think you have had 2 losing weeks so far, before this week on your official NFL picks in this thread. The others were small loses. Even if this week big loser, it happens.

ZOLAS

Thanks.. the record now stands at 23-14 ATS for 5* bets and 2-0 ATS for 10* bets and 1-1 ATS for 20* Titans.

Today's pair of losses were poor to say the least, but you can never allow a pair of poor losses OR a pair of HUGE wins to affect your judgement and decision making for the next game. Discipline.

[John Ryan]

so, tonight is 10* 'UNDER' as graded by the simulator. Baltimore is averaging 37.3 pass attempts per game, but the percentage completino is not strong. There have been a ton of vertical routes used to stretch the defense to open up the running game and then use play action pass to exploit man coverage. They need to establish the run early in this game.

[fecgp40]

Thanks.. the record now stands at 23-14 ATS for 5* bets and 2-0 ATS for 10* bets and 1-1 ATS for 20* Titans. Today's pair of losses were poor to say the least, but you can never allow a pair of poor losses OR a pair of HUGE wins to affect your judgement and decision making for the next game. Discipline.

[John Ryan]

The Steelers have improved against the run -- yielding only 43 yards last week -- and have become stingier as the season has progressed. Baltimore's offense is built around a physical ground attack. Look for offensive coordinator Cam Cameron to use more spread formations to take a defender out of the box, and make pounding the rock and controlling the tempo of the game a bit easier.

Baltimore's defense is ranked No. 1 in the league and can be absolutely dominating if an offense plays "small ball" -- using two-tight end and two-back sets -- to pound the football. The Steelers are a physical team but have utilzed more three-receiver and one-back sets recently. Look for Steelers offensive coordinator Bruce Arians to design a game plan built around multiple spread formations and a variety of motions.

[bassaholicman]

The Under are at 10-2 for the day and have been really strong over the last few weeks. Probably due to overreaction to the overs hitting at around 80% over the first few weeks. Did your simulator show any strong value in unders today - aside from Green Bay/San Diego and Balt./Pitt? Do you think it would be a good idea to blanket bet unders our overs at any time?

[John Ryan]

The Under are at 10-2 for the day and have been really strong over the last few weeks. Probably due to overreaction to the overs hitting at around 80% over the first few weeks. Did your simulator show any strong value in unders today - aside from Green Bay/San Diego and Balt./Pitt? Do you think it would be a good idea to blanket bet unders our overs at any time?

No joke. I was considering that action earlier in the week and also fading the BCS Top-6.

I think there is a need to have a 'Total total' posted. In other words and over/under line for all games listed for the week. It would have to be a significant bid-offer spread, but tld books could get hurt BIG on any given week.

Ironically, the one play I do make on the UNDER with GB ends up being the barn burner of the day. Just have to laugh.

[John Ryan]

As a recommendation, take the Ravens for the second half line. I like what I am seeing from them on both sides of the ball. Watch the LOS and you can see that the Ravens are winning the majority of the plays. Steelers are getting a nice surge on running plays but the OL is missing passing blocking assignments a lot. Such as the Sack of Roethlisberger at the 12 yard line.

The 'under' is looking good SO FAR. Do not add any second half play on the total. a 10* amount is enough and we are on the right side at this point. As we know, the game can change immediately at any given time. BOL and we will be back in the Am with the MNF play.

[veeds1690]

lets hope this holds John! Gonna stay put with my under bet and sweat it

[megonadman]

thanks john..... every bet you have told me I've done the opposite... which is only 2/2

thank you for your predictions

[megonadman]

thanks john..... every bet you have told me I've done the opposite... which is only 2/2

thank you for your predictions

[BeardedTaco]

ouch what a crushing td pass there.

[Brett]

Thanks.. the record now stands at 23-14 ATS for 5* bets and 2-0 ATS for 10* bets and 1-1 ATS for 20* Titans.

Today's pair of losses were poor to say the least, but you can never allow a pair of poor losses OR a pair of HUGE wins to affect your judgement and decision making for the next game. Discipline.

2-1

[my6sen]

wat i tell uuuuuuuuuu 0-5

[rnoutlaw21]

thanks john..... every bet you have told me I've done the opposite... which is only 2/2

thank you for your predictions

Make a new account just to troll in a forum? Get a life dude

[my6sen]

10 ******** go awayyyyyy

[my6sen]

how u feel nowwwww

[bassaholicman]

tough day John - but i always think "it's a marathon, not a sprint" and that means positive months and years in spite of bad weeks. I did hedge a nickel (half of original bet) on over 19.5 2h - not because i didn't like the original bet, but because it crossed several key numbers and had good value. thx for the picks and insight.

[PickMeAwinner]

WOW!!!!

[jimmy007oc]

That was a good pick John. Let's you know, we lost a battle, doesn't mean we lost a war. Keep your head up and See you on MNF

[JR007]

cannot beat nfl longterm period, if yesterday's games weren't proof enough...lines are too sharp, their powerratings are superior to anything anyone here can come up with ........ the back and the front door are always open

[megonadman]

Make a new account just to troll in a forum? Get a life dude

I'm new here...... i do not understand the term troll, must be some a American term.

i was only stated the facts. lets hope John can be successful in the future for all.

i back the Ravens last quarter at 5/1...... happy days...

[denn333]

Time to focus on today, yesterday is over, forget about it....

[JR007]

better off with hockey, early college BB, or college football, ...where you can find" soft" lines

[upscope]

cannot beat nfl longterm period, if yesterday's games weren't proof enough...lines are too sharp, their powerratings are superior to anything anyone here can come up with ........ the back and the front door are always open

I have to agree w/ this~

[upscope]

better off with hockey, early college BB, or college football, ...where you can find" soft" lines

& this~

[pc2006mg]

Tough day John! That is why money management is key. Keep up the good work as there is still a lot of football left to be played. Do you get down on college basketball as well? That can be very lucrative as well. Just gotta keep chipping away. Let's get back on the horse for tonight's game. I am still behind you 100 percent!!!!!!

[upscope]

nfl sux

[upscope]

......

[John Ryan]

Yes, i will be starting College Hoops thread soon. Not sure if I am using the correct words or even the ones that I want. yesterday is NOT the first time I have endured something like that. I always remind myself of one of my favorite sayings and that is some days you are the dog and some days you are the fire hydrant... Anyway, the record is still quite good for the season and we simply losy HOUSE MONEY at this point.

I have beaten the NFL in 15 of my 17 seasons and the two losing seasons were modest losses. Believe me, I am not shaken at all by the misfortune of yesterday's plays and I do appreciate all of the support and encouragement moving forward. Two weeks ago we went 9-1 ATS combined CFB and NFL and now this week we are 0-3 ATS with 0-2 ATS 5* plays and 0-1 ATS with the 10* UNDER play.

At 23-14 ATS that is still 62.6% winners. Early on this thread I stated our goal was to hit 60% ATS or better and that would be awesome season for all of us. So, I look at it as we had the worst of days and are still ahead of plan.

[soonerstud7804]

I had some tough losses yesterday john but the sun came up and my feet hit the floor and it's a new day..Let's crush em tonight.

[SportsMushroom]

john you are still way ahead, congrats on your success through these first 9 weeks

[JR007]

ats records can be decieving, it's about ROI, if you win a 5 unit and lose a 10 unit, well, it's a loss of (money) what about those Pats second half bets, those aren't figured into the ats record ????....what constitutes a official play ?? when they are in "bold".....you lost ne 2nd half for 3 stars, and you" liked" under ne 23 with no rating........... posts" 1713 and "1715

[Thurman]

John, love your picks and the fact that you do it all for free, keep up the good work. That being said, we are not losing house money, the whole notion of house money is a gambling farce. Its your/our money, not the houses anymore, even if its over and above what you started with. Once you win that bet, its no longer the houses money.

[Thurman]

[QUOTE=John Ryan;12246133] Anyway, the record is still quite good for the season and we simply losy HOUSE MONEY at this point.
John, love your picks and the fact that you do it all for free, keep up the good work. That being said, we are not losing house money, the whole notion of house money is a gambling farce. Its your/our money, not the houses anymore, even if its over and above what you started with. Once you win that bet, its no longer the houses money.