2011 NFL Pro Picks with John Ryan

[John Ryan]

Not crazy at all John and I am with you all the way!

Thanks for the support. Always a bit 'mentally tough' to take the winless dog.. But i appreciate the confidence.

[calmeat]

yup my sim has Indy covering the spread but losing the game. My 3 teams im mainly playing though are HOU, NOS, and SF. I have a bunch of different teases with those teams involved and by themselves. Any take on HOU NOS and SF john?

[fecgp40]

Already locked in the Colts ML & Colts + 7. I like it!!! Colts get their first win tomorrow. Let's get it!

[Dice bet]

line moved to 6.5

[jjaycuny]

I wanna put some on the Colts but I have my entire bankroll riding on
Alabama -5
Alabama/LSU un41
and I teased Kansas State +27 and ov63

Hopefully they all cash

[Jay2k1civic]

now 3 losses to LSU after a bye week!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! maybe next time someone messages you for bank roll advice you dont ignore them!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[PickMeAwinner]

Thanks again John!!!!!!

[thortada]

i still think it was the right call with alabama-5. three FG's missed and one blocked... ridiculous

[dodgerblue]

I wanna put some on the Colts but I have my entire bankroll riding on
Alabama -5
Alabama/LSU un41
and I teased Kansas State +27 and ov63

Hopefully they all cash

Never put your whole roll in play, ESP against an SEC team that has faced formidable competition this year!!

[Mully85]

Yes, let's do that.. Can we discuss this Monday? I think it will be a good thread for those that want to learn the advanced math behind your work and my 17 year neural net. Thanks for the ideas.

If you end up creating a new thread on this, please let me know. I would be very interested in hearing about this stuff!!

[John Ryan]

Here are some thoughts about the Colts and the things they need to do to win this game.

5* graded play on Indianapolis Colts as they host the Atlanta Falcons set to start at 1:00 PM ET. My proprietary simulator and statistical database shows a high probability that the Colts will lose this game by five or fewer points and has an excellent opportunity to win this game and end the media talk of an imperfect season. Atlanta appears to have significant advantages in the running game led by Michael Turner and on the perimeter with their athletic receivers. Despite ranking 31st in run defense, the Colts match up well against a Falcons offensive line that has been largely inconsistent this season. The Colts defensive end, Freeney and Mathis pose sizable problems in pass protection of the Falcons offensive line. The Colts will use a score of zone blitzes to not just stop the run, but to put immediate pressure on Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan. With eight men in the box looking to attack run gaps, using play action pass is of little help for Ryan. The play action is designed to 'freeze' the linebackers and make the safeties 'bite' on the run play. When the scheme is all-out pressure the play action only gives the Colts defense more time to get right into Ryan's grill. The focal point of the Colts offense will be to get the running game established. They will do this with a heavy dose of TE Dallas Clark catching balls in the short-middle. I believe that Clark could have as many as 10 catches today and this in turn will open up the 'A' gap for the running game to have success. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a 74-34 ATS record for 68% winners since 1983. Play on - dogs or pick after seven or more consecutive losses with the game takeing place in the second half of the season. Further supporting this graded play are game situations noting they are just 2-10 ATS losing 9.0 units when facing very bad defensive teams who give up 27 or more points per game in the second half of the season since 1992. Take the Colts.

[Delirium tremens]

Are you talking about the same Colts I've been watching this season?

[pc2006mg]

Just look back to last week's Rams game.

[PickMeAwinner]

3 team parlay combining Johns picks and mine:

Colts+6.5 , Sd/Gb Under 51 , Buff/NYJ OVER 45

Is this the right play?

[John Ryan]

3 team parlay combining Johns picks and mine:

Colts+6.5 , Sd/Gb Under 51 , Buff/NYJ OVER 45

Is this the right play?

Well, as all of you know by now, I am not a big advocate of betting parlays and teasers. However, this one looks to have some big potential. I may even advise using the money and the Colts to make the gain significantly bigger.

[John Ryan]

To recap the plays for today and tonight. 10* UNDER Ravens 42-110, 5* Colts +7 -110, and 5* UNDER Green Bay 51-110

[ouman101]

John, I was wondering what your thoughts are on the Miami/KC game? Large percentage of the bets are on KC, but the line is moving against them, down to -4. I like KC, and I've seen nothing good shown by Miami. Any opinion?

[K2daL]

John, I was wondering what your thoughts are on the Miami/KC game? Large percentage of the bets are on KC, but the line is moving against them, down to -4. I like KC, and I've seen nothing good shown by Miami. Any opinion?

It opened at -5, so i hope you meant the line is going down in their favor. I think Miami is the play KC will shit the bed after an emotion win on MNF. Miami is bad but I really think they will be able to score points on KC weak D to keep it in reach.

[GoDucks1]

Anybody still like Cinci at +2.5? I think they win that game, as the Titans offense is putrid and the Bengals defense is rock solid.

How about Baltimore +3.5 and Houston -10.5 (how are the Browns gonna score?)?

[ouman101]

It opened at -5, so i hope you meant the line is going down in their favor. I think Miami is the play KC will shit the bed after an emotion win on MNF. Miami is bad but I really think they will be able to score points on KC weak D to keep it in reach.

Yeah, I don't know what the right way to say it is, as far as moving with or against, but I meant what you said. The line has moved from -5 to -4. Maybe your right, with the let down game for KC. I've just bet on Miami too many times this year, and they find some way not to cover every time. Maybe if Brandon Marshall knew how to catch the ball, it wouldn't be so painful to bet on them.

[big cheyo]

how bout sd to cover? i know theyve been havnt been too good but this is a team who plays at the other teams level, vs bad teams they play bad and vs good teams they tend to get inspired

[big cheyo]

also the under looks good on greenbay, i think the bye week will affect them a bit and wont score too many points

[illios]

John, any insight on bills n jets game? And cowboys n Seahawks?

[jas19illini]

To recap the plays for today and tonight. 10* UNDER Ravens 42-110, 5* Colts +7 -110, and 5* UNDER Green Bay 51-110

Liking the picks John. Want to throw all of those into a tiny parlay, in addition to betting them straight, but was thinking of adding the Pats -8.5 in with those three picks. Thoughts? Brady bouncing back form last week, NYG weak pass defense, Bradshaw and Nicks out for NYG, game at Gillette Stadium. All signs that i like for the Pats. I kind of like the Chargers this week too. Cant decide.

[ZOLAS]

John,

I'm curious John what does your program say about the winner of the steeler raven game. What is the percentages? I'm not betting the side, just going with your selections, but just interested who you have getting W in this big game.

ZOLAS

[PickMeAwinner]

Well, as all of you know by now, I am not a big advocate of betting parlays and teasers. However, this one looks to have some big potential. I may even advise using the money and the Colts to make the gain significantly bigger.

Thanks John I will do a separate wager 2* on the ML Colts play

[spike1519]

Thank's again John for all your hardwork and willingness to share your insight's with us. and especially thanks for the encouragement in our own data set endeavors ......spike.......
B.T.W Just found an interesting lil tid bit winless teams (colts) are a 74% winner ats from week 9 on!

[jas19illini]

Thank's again John for all your hardwork and willingness to share your insight's with us. and especially thanks for the encouragement in our own data set endeavors ......spike.......
B.T.W Just found an interesting lil tid bit winless teams (colts) are a 74% winner ats from week 9 on!

Tbh im liking Miami this week too. Just a feeling....

[THExGunslinger]

good job everyone ... keep it up

[GenosPicks]

John ever wondering if you've taken the time to watch one of my video's--which have been icy cold of late by the way... alway slooking for any thoughts. btw i am on GB -5.5, SF -4, BUFF -3, PIT -3 and PHI -7 as of now...
Week 9 NFL picks with Geno

Think of it as 50% football, 50% comedy and 100% brilliant! Oh, and guys, the picks are not the jokes, the jokes are what make the picks!

[Reno Gambler]

John,
Is that und and bal or und (using bal)??
Thanks

[numismatist]

Indianapolis is going to get destroyed today

[fecgp40]

Indianapolis is going to get destroyed today

It's certainly looking that way so far... I wonder if it's time to hedge at halftime.

[matelionis]

It's certainly looking that way so far... I wonder if it's time to hedge at halftime.

Not even a question in my mind. Indy is awful today.

[fecgp40]

Not even a question in my mind. Indy is awful today.

The question is what kind of hedges will be available... Probably not much.