2011 NFL Pro Picks with John Ryan

[spike1519]

Weekends over and once again this thread keeps performing well. I personally went 10 -2 including the bet's that my new not quite finished s.q.l database gave me. Would like to focus on tonights game. Charger's leed in almost all stat's passing yard per game as well as total yards per game the only category there not over K.C is in rushing and even that is only by 13 yards per game so statiscally it's hard to make a strong statement against them winning this game however there are the intangibles K.C seem's to have found a groove and are on a roll improving in all of there last 5 games in every department. This is something that can't be seen in statistical analysis so it makes for me a very interesting point that they seem to have found something in themselves that is driving them on to play better each week. I don't think you can leave this out of the equation a team that is in the groove can play over there head look at the saints game yesterday a pumped up team can conquer in the face of what seemed like an easy win for the saint's, S.T.L had something to prove! I'm thinking that the K.C team is in this category and personally would have a hard time betting against them. Still undecided on this one. also River's is prone to throw interceptions and that could also help K.C which has a decent defense and if not mistaken K.C has the best offense in the red zone this year! But would love to hear some debate on the game tonight B.T.W was never really worried bout the under last night the game that gave me a scare was the frisco game real nailbiter there! ....spike......bol all

[Greyraptor]

Great weekend John! Just wanted to say thanks for the awesome picks. I NEVER would have seen the under last night with the Dallas/Philly game if you hadn't pointed it out. Great 10* pick and solid overall weekend with only one 5* not hitting.

[spike1519]

Entering this week they were hitting 63% ATS and just finished a perfect 5-0 ATS week with side and total selections. Scroll up to see those results and the line I have started for this week's Game of the Week thread between Alabama and LSU

thats gonna be the game of the year in my opinion I love it when 2 great teams meet up at this time in the season should be a great game .....spike...........

[PickMeAwinner]

Monday Night Football

Chargers -3.5
Chiefs 44.5

This is gonna be a big game in the AFC WEST. This showdown will either produce a leader in the division or make a 3 way tie. The Charger are looking real iffy after the poor performance last week coming of a bye going to the east coast. The Jets game is one thing but how about the games prior. Lets start with Miami when they were in SD, for a team that showed no sign of any kind of offense then were able to get 16 pts on the board. Denver, a team that completely sucks was able to rally back and almost win the game. Now what I'm getting at is that their Defense should be the main focus. Keep in mind that the Chargers as I remember were a solid 2nd half team. Oh that reminds me, every game vs the PATs they've always performed well except this year. So what if your QB throw a pick or 2, a great D steps up and bail their man out. I believe the coaching staff is still adjusting to the absent of Ron Rivera. In order for the Chargers to win, Rivers would have to play a perfect game along with their banged up offensive starters. SD defense has given up 300+ yard on the ground in the last 2 games and of course the Chiefs has now found a way to mix the run and the passing game real well. Now to say that KC has a better defense is definitely NOT true. In games where defense maybe an issue on both side usually leads to supporting the OVER. The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Diego's last 5 games on the road. I'm still not sold on betting the OVER as of yet. This is gonna be the Chief 2nd home game of the season, the 1st was a win over the Vikings 22-17 which also produced UNDER 40pts. Momentum play a big factor in sports and right now the fair weather Chargers team is definitely working against the wind. I wont be shocked when the Chiefs put out the little fire left in SD.

What am I missing here?

[SportsMushroom]

this thread is 2 pages of john picks and 44 pages of random poster bullshit

stop cluttering the thread, if you have something to say make your own thread

[PickMeAwinner]

this thread is 2 pages of john picks and 44 pages of random poster bullshit

stop cluttering the thread, if you have something to say make your own thread

[bull07]

I said KC +3.5 and Over 44.5 tonite

[quintaris23]

has john ryan posted the pick ?

[Jay2k1civic]

no he hasnt..... im glad one of his plays is LSU vs BAMA...im off from work saturday and im watching that game from start to finish....should be a hell of a game....im also leaning more on LSU.....solely based on gut instincts..... lets see what John has to say later on in the week!

[ghetto1]

thanx for SNF john! what gonna be tonight john?

[redeye413]

I have been trolling this site for a couple weeks now, but just wanna said i always read your insight first John before other people cause i think you have the best . Thanks for the 49 er, Rams ( i would have never thought of these) and the snf games!! I pick detroit tho cause i thought they were gonna be more hungry. So im good haha !

[John Ryan]

Weekends over and once again this thread keeps performing well. I personally went 10 -2 including the bet's that my new not quite finished s.q.l database gave me. Would like to focus on tonights game. Charger's leed in almost all stat's passing yard per game as well as total yards per game the only category there not over K.C is in rushing and even that is only by 13 yards per game so statiscally it's hard to make a strong statement against them winning this game however there are the intangibles K.C seem's to have found a groove and are on a roll improving in all of there last 5 games in every department. This is something that can't be seen in statistical analysis so it makes for me a very interesting point that they seem to have found something in themselves that is driving them on to play better each week. I don't think you can leave this out of the equation a team that is in the groove can play over there head look at the saints game yesterday a pumped up team can conquer in the face of what seemed like an easy win for the saint's, S.T.L had something to prove! I'm thinking that the K.C team is in this category and personally would have a hard time betting against them. Still undecided on this one. also River's is prone to throw interceptions and that could also help K.C which has a decent defense and if not mistaken K.C has the best offense in the red zone this year! But would love to hear some debate on the game tonight B.T.W was never really worried bout the under last night the game that gave me a scare was the frisco game real nailbiter there! ....spike......bol all

Nice review Spike. Thanks for your research.

[John Ryan]

I have been trolling this site for a couple weeks now, but just wanna said i always read your insight first John before other people cause i think you have the best . Thanks for the 49 er, Rams ( i would have never thought of these) and the snf games!! I pick detroit tho cause i thought they were gonna be more hungry. So im good haha !

Thanks and Denver was a horrible play, BUT the 10* did come through for a 4-1 ATS Sunday and went 5-0 ATS in CFB. I know from my 18 years of experience that is not a permanent trend.

[PickMeAwinner]

I have been trolling this site for a couple weeks now, but just wanna said i always read your insight first John before other people cause i think you have the best . Thanks for the 49 er, Rams ( i would have never thought of these) and the snf games!! I pick detroit tho cause i thought they were gonna be more hungry. So im good haha !

That the best thing about this thread. John great knowledge when it comes to capping and usually when I dont agree with him I just simply skip the game. It's is rare that I fade...

[John Ryan]

Monday Night Football

Chargers -3.5
Chiefs 44.5

This is gonna be a big game in the AFC WEST. This showdown will either produce a leader in the division or make a 3 way tie. The Charger are looking real iffy after the poor performance last week coming of a bye going to the east coast. The Jets game is one thing but how about the games prior. Lets start with Miami when they were in SD, for a team that showed no sign of any kind of offense then were able to get 16 pts on the board. Denver, a team that completely sucks was able to rally back and almost win the game. Now what I'm getting at is that their Defense should be the main focus. Keep in mind that the Chargers as I remember were a solid 2nd half team. Oh that reminds me, every game vs the PATs they've always performed well except this year. So what if your QB throw a pick or 2, a great D steps up and bail their man out. I believe the coaching staff is still adjusting to the absent of Ron Rivera. In order for the Chargers to win, Rivers would have to play a perfect game along with their banged up offensive starters. SD defense has given up 300+ yard on the ground in the last 2 games and of course the Chiefs has now found a way to mix the run and the passing game real well. Now to say that KC has a better defense is definitely NOT true. In games where defense maybe an issue on both side usually leads to supporting the OVER. The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Diego's last 5 games on the road. I'm still not sold on betting the OVER as of yet. This is gonna be the Chief 2nd home game of the season, the 1st was a win over the Vikings 22-17 which also produced UNDER 40pts. Momentum play a big factor in sports and right now the fair weather Chargers team is definitely working against the wind. I wont be shocked when the Chiefs put out the little fire left in SD.

What am I missing here?

All very good thoughts, but the flow of game always changes in games decided by 17 points or less. It seems that once a NFL score exceed that it is very rare that any comeback occurs. The Giants did it though this weekend against a very weak Dolphins team. This is a vast generalization, but I think you will see SD struggle to maintain scoring drives> KC can show a vast number of different defensive looks pre-snap and we have seen how Rivers can get frustrated when he makes the wrong read and then try to force a ball into tight spots.

[drew2]

john any pick for tonight?

[John Ryan]

ok. Going with a 5* play on Kansas City. This game works out to be similar to that Saints game against Tampa Bay. The Buvs were 4 point dogs and took it to the Saints in the second half of that game. SD really has not played a difficult schedule and their opponents combined record is abysmal. SUPPORTING the graded play is a game situation showing that SD is just 1-8 ATS in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points over the last 3 seasons. Moreover. KC is a solid 9-2 ATS after playing their last game on the road over the last 2 seasons. The sim also shows a high probability that SD will score 15 to 21 points in this game. In past games where SD has scored this tange of points they are 0-3 ATS this season, 2-7 ATS the past three seasons, and 26-46 ATS since 1996. Take the Chiefs and BOL to Everyone!. I'll stop by at half time.

[MatI]

Hi John, thanks for the pick, i have taken the spread already, but im curious as to weather your play above is on ML or spread?

[spike1519]

just a thought No team has started 0-3 and won its next four games since Pittsburgh in 2000.
playing at K.c is a hard place to come in and play very loud crowd witch can shorten your play book also K.c has found a new way to mix it up lets not forget that in sept these teams were within 3 points of each other. cheifs eric berry was avg 6 yards a carry and went down. mike tolbert for chargers there best third down back is out . cheifs last three wins have come against some of the worst teams in the nfl colts and minnesota and a quarterback unsettled raiders. the line on this is right where it should be. if Rivers puts together a game chargers win handily but if the crowd distracts him and he throws int's like hes been prone to do then I feel K.c has a shot at winning outright
with both teams avg. around 20 to 24 point per game this could be an over/ under betting situation rather than an outright winner. My s.q.l has K.c winning this but I dont trust it yet all in all I guess I'm just a perplexed as everyone on this one maybe just stay away from it as If i'm unsure it's better to look to a better spot . if I were pressed for a pick I'd say K.c and under .......spike.........

[august_]

Which one would you choose, John? KC +2,5 or KC +3,5? obviously the +3,5 pick gives me less money than the other one

[Jay2k1civic]

kc at home is no joke..... its extremely loud....i sure wouldnt want to bet against that.....especially when the opposing qb has more int than tds....noise level will play a factor in this game.....

[tcpugh5]

kc at home is no joke..... its extremely loud....i sure wouldnt want to bet against that.....especially when the opposing qb has more int than tds....noise level will play a factor in this game.....

I keep hearing that and I tend to agree to a certain level. However, why is everyone saying it like its Rivers rookie year and this will be the first time he has played in that kind of environment?

[drew2]

thanks for the pick john, good luck!

[Jay2k1civic]

I keep hearing that and I tend to agree to a certain level. However, why is everyone saying it like its Rivers rookie year and this will be the first time he has played in that kind of environment?

Everyone has opinions..... and different views..... You have more INT than TDS....maybe he outright does it...and wins..who knows what his state of mind is...who knows if he can CONQUER his fears on halloween night on a night when KC is said to have the loudest fans of the NFL.... who knows if that holds any weight

[PickMeAwinner]

Thanks JOHN

[spike1519]

The way this game is going wondering what people think of a bet that k.c scores less than 10.5 in 4th quarter?

[Brett]

The way this game is going wondering what people think of a bet that k.c scores less than 10.5 in 4th quarter?

[spike1519]

and its a winner

[big cheyo]

pussshhhhh, the under was a good play for a while got scared for a bit but ended up cashing that one in

[SXRD71]

Great call on the under!! Keep up the good work.

[georgekobe8]

ok. Going with a 5* play on Kansas City. This game works out to be similar to that Saints game against Tampa Bay. The Buvs were 4 point dogs and took it to the Saints in the second half of that game. SD really has not played a difficult schedule and their opponents combined record is abysmal. SUPPORTING the graded play is a game situation showing that SD is just 1-8 ATS in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points over the last 3 seasons. Moreover. KC is a solid 9-2 ATS after playing their last game on the road over the last 2 seasons. The sim also shows a high probability that SD will score 15 to 21 points in this game. In past games where SD has scored this tange of points they are 0-3 ATS this season, 2-7 ATS the past three seasons, and 26-46 ATS since 1996. Take the Chiefs and BOL to Everyone!. I'll stop by at half time.

John how come I cant transfer points over to you?

[PickMeAwinner]

Whats up guys John has a play for NCAAF

http://www.sbrforum.com/college-football/free-picks/northern-illinois-vs-toledo-college-football-pick-a-21837/

[tommyminh]

I like the way u explian on college football, and I just find bookie who had college football, let me tail u in college john.

[John Ryan]

Which one would you choose, John? KC +2,5 or KC +3,5? obviously the +3,5 pick gives me less money than the other one

I rarely win or lose by the half point so what ever line gives you the -110 or better yet -105 vig is the one I would recommend.

[John Ryan]

Great call on the under!! Keep up the good work.

will keep trying.. one pick at a time no matter what the past results have been.