Units or Flat betting?

[RaRhythm24]

Hi guys,

Trying to have a winning season in college and football.
Would you recommend flat betting on all plays i bet or do units on each play.
Has anyone researched anything like this before.
so my question is?

What is more profitable, Flat betting or units?

Appreciate the help!

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

I'll give you the best answer I possibly can with my experience betting NFL (this will be my 11th season).

When I first started I use to bet different amounts on how confident I felt on a play. I learned quickly that this will not work. I decided to set aside a certain amount of money and I called it my "bankroll". I decided to setup a system in which I bet only 5% of my bankroll on each play. Whether I was really confident or I just liked it, I bet 5% and 5% only. My first full season that I followed through with this I saw some significant results. I stuck with this exact same system for the last several years and I can honestly say I've won a lot more betting NFL than I've loss.

For this upcoming year I decided to not get carried away and bet baseball which I suck at. So going into this NFL season my bankroll is $6500. Each and every single one of my plays will be either 5%-7% of my bankroll. I realized last year that the plays I felt very confident in were winning the majority of the time, so those will be my 7% plays. I hope you're still following. With a $6500 bankroll that I am entering this season with (your bankroll can be whatever and this system will still work) a 5% play would be $325. So those would be my standard plays sort of speak. A 7% play would be $455 and these would only be my overly confident plays.

Therefore, my only 2 wager amounts will be either to risk $325 or $455. These numbers cannot be altered with ANYTIME throughout the year or you'll be abandoning the system. If you're looking for a system to try out I would suggest this 5%-7% system because its worked for me year in and year out. I also forgot to mention this would only work if you know your football and you know what you're doing.

Hope this helped. Best of luck this season pal.

[dantanner]

D3 Duck is right, but about to go wrong I think. I would also clarify that the 5% of the bankroll is a standard throughout the season. If that amount is 20 dollars at the start of the season, it should stay 20 til the end.

Otherwise, you can have a great first half of the season and double your bankroll, only to lose it in half the time because your bet amount has doubled.

That's my view on it anyway. A good feeling about a bet does not make it worth more. Good feelings about a game has busted many a bankroll.

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

Yeah I forgot to clarify whatever your 5% "number" or wager amount is at the beginning of the season, should be the same for your week 17 bets (if you haven't lost it all by then). I'm not saying you have to do this but it works. Its something called PATIENCE. Not a lot of people have that trait around here and its huge when it comes to betting.

[bobbyk1133]

7% is too high for a standard bet. That's a quick way to kill your bankroll.

Bet between 2-5% of your bankroll on each wager. Your level of risk intelligence/comfort level will decide where you fall within that range. After you win/loss a pre-determined amount, recalculate your 2-5% based on your NEW bankroll.

Example - If you start off with 5000$ betting 100-250$/bet and reach 7000$ by mid-season, it doesn't make sense to keep betting 100$. Adjust it and bet 140-310$. Same goes if you fall to 3000$-->bet 60-150$.

If you stick with this and stay disciplined, it will be very difficult for you to lose....assuming you are competent at picking games.

Good luck

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

Either way works to be honest. And 7% isn't a standard bet. 5% of your bankroll I said is a standard bet. But we all have those overly confident plays that you wish you would of bit a bit more on. That is when you lay 7% of your roll. Another thing I forgot to mention is the number of plays. This system doesn't work if your looking to bet 6-7 games a week. This 5%-7% system only works if your looking to wager on 3-4 plays max. Betting more than 1/5 of your bankroll on any given day isn't wise. One bad day and you're screwed already if you lose 1/5, imagine losing half your roll on one Sunday.

PATIENCE PATIENCE. BE PATIENT!!

[bobbyk1133]

Either way works to be honest. And 7% isn't a standard bet. 5% of your bankroll I said is a standard bet. But we all have those overly confident plays that you wish you would of bit a bit more on. That is when you lay 7% of your roll. Another thing I forgot to mention is the number of plays. This system doesn't work if your looking to bet 6-7 games a week. This 5%-7% system only works if your looking to wager on 3-4 plays max. Betting more than 1/5 of your bankroll on any given day isn't wise. One bad day and you're screwed already if you lose 1/5, imagine losing half your roll on one Sunday. PATIENCE PATIENCE. BE PATIENT!!

For an experienced better who is very good at what they do, sure 7% is reasonable, but for the average person I would suggest nothing higher than 5%. I think all 'standard' bets should be more conservative than that...2-4%. But that's just my 2 cents.

[RaRhythm24]

Thank you all for ur help, my bankroll is $2500 for NFL and another $2500 for college, so I should bet 5% each play. If my bankroll grows. Should I raise my bet or stay @5%? My goal is to walk away doubling my bankroll.

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

Thank you all for ur help, my bankroll is $2500 for NFL and another $2500 for college, so I should bet 5% each play. If my bankroll grows. Should I raise my bet or stay @5%? My goal is to walk away doubling my bankroll.

My goal as well is to try and double my starting bankroll. If you're ever able to double your starting bankroll than you should be more than happy. Anyways, to answer your question whether you should raise your bet or stay at 5%, you should stay at 5%, never raise it to 10% just because "your on a roll". But that doesn't mean your wager amount won't increase. With your $2500 bankroll, a 5% play would be $125. So you would RISK $125 to win whatever, not risk whatever to win $125. Let's say you start winning and you get your bankroll up to $3700. You now have two options. You can keep the same $125 throughout the entire year or you can adjust your 5% number as your bankroll increases. So if your bankroll becomes $3700 let's say, a 5% play would now be $185. And after each week you recalculate your bankroll and divide your bankroll number by 20 and that will give you your 5% wager amount.

I hope you're still following what I'm trying to say. It may sound boring and sometimes you just want to chase and double of nothing but its all about being patient and making sure you still have money to play with come Week 17, playoffs, Superbowl. Stay in the game for as long as possible. If you are 100 percent sure that your $2500 bankroll can disappear and it won't kill you, than try out this kind of system this season.

[RaRhythm24]

D3 Mighty Ducks,

Thank you for your information and time explaing on how to be a profitable better. The $5000.00 bankroll is all i have to play with, lost the rest of the bankroll to stupid immature betting, that is why i need good advice. I want to be Smarter and MORE PATIENT this year in my bets. I will stick with the 5% rule and to be honest i dont think i can take anymore big bets, its been alot of sleepless nights. so my everybet for the season will be to RISK $125 per game. Sounds good to me! Again thank you for your help!
Do u cap your own bets or do u follow a capper?

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

No problem man. I don't like to see people get buried its not a good sight. We're all in this together to win money, not lose it. I've been capping my own games for several years now. Last year was my first full season posting my picks here on SBR and it was quite a success. I decided to do the same this year and have my thread for this upcoming season already, its called "D3's NFL Plays". You should be able to find it somewhere in the NFL Handicapping section within the first 2 pages. I'll be open to discussion all season in my thread and i'll also be posting my plays. So if you ever need something you know where to find me.

Once again, best of luck this upcoming season. Just be patient and it'll lead to you becoming a more profitable bettor. Cheers!

[RaRhythm24]

Thanks, I will definitely check out ur thread. Good luck.

[dantanner]

My goal is to walk away doubling my bankroll.

One thing I always like to tell anybody who will listen is to declare a point where you can say "I am a winner. "

You have done that, and I commend you. Smart man....

But how many games ahead will you have to get? You are betting with a 20 unit bank, thus you need to win 20 units. If you place 5 bets a week and won 3 of them, over 17 weeks, you will have won 51 games and lost 34. The 51 wins would make would make about 46 units of winnings, assuming you bet the spread at -110. You will have lost 34 units on losing bets, leaving you with a profit of roughly 12 units, or 60% or your bankroll, with a 60% win rate.

What I am getting at is that the goal of doubling the bankroll is not reasonable for the circumstances. A 60% win rate is good and most do not achieve it. I did it last year for the first time, but 57 to 58 is a lot more like normal.

So what are the options in setting a reasonable goal that you can attain?

Well, you could set your goals to making a 50% return on your investment. That is doable if you use the right system and it has a decent year.

Or you can go balls out high risk and use 10% units in effort to win 10 units, and hope like hell your are consistent week in and week out so the roll never gets busted. If you have a really bad start, you could wipe out the bankroll in two or three weeks betting 5 games a week. If you have a really good start, you could end up sitting out the second half of the season because you doubled the bankroll quickly.

Or, you can split the bankroll and bet using two different systems at 10%, thus cutting the risk of busting the bank if one system starts out bad. Of course, it is gambling so both systems could start out bad and still bust your roll, but the odds of that are far less than putting all of the eggs in one basket.

All of those decisions should be made before the first bet is placed, and whatever decision you make should be stuck with till the end.

Just some things to consider.

Good luck...

[Donkwin47]

As the old saying goes: "All men may be created equal, but all plays are NOT!"

UNITS, brotha!

[shawnjohn5]

Generally speaking flat betting is the way to go. Every once in a while you get an extremely good play then take advantage. Ask yourself this question, if you could be more selective and only play your give star games, why would you consider playing a one star game. Makes very little sense. I flat bet at 275 and for a fantastic play I would 350. Not much variance but enough to feel good about it.

[PUDS]

Hi guy's thanks for sharing those usefull tips
i have one question for you:
When you are betting unit, are you betting to win one unit ?
Or you re just risking one unit ?

Let's say odds are -110
You bet one unit to win 0.91 unit
or you risk 1.1 to win 1
?

Thank's for your help !

[shawnjohn5]

Thats really youre call, just be consistent... I nrt baseball often and my bet is 275. Not to win 275. Consistency is key.

[mnpickle]

So it sounds like 5% is pretty standard, but how much of your bankroll do you guys commit week in and week out? Do you use your whole bankroll? Or do you simply bet on all the games you like, whether its 10 a week or simply 2?

[JosephPavs]

You need to keep your % the same all season but set your new % each week.

at 5% if you lose 30 games in a row you still have over a grand in the bank


1 5,000.00 250.00
2 4,750.00 237.50
3 4,512.50 225.63
4 4,286.88 214.34
5 4,072.53 203.63
6 3,868.90 193.45
7 3,675.46 183.77
8 3,491.69 174.58
9 3,317.10 165.86
10 3,151.25 157.56
11 2,993.68 149.68
12 2,844.00 142.20
13 2,701.80 135.09
14 2,566.71 128.34
15 2,438.37 121.92
16 2,316.46 115.82
17 2,200.63 110.03
18 2,090.60 104.53
19 1,986.07 99.30
20 1,886.77 94.34
21 1,792.43 89.62
22 1,702.81 85.14
23 1,617.67 80.88
24 1,536.78 76.84
25 1,459.95 73.00
26 1,386.95 69.35
27 1,317.60 65.88
28 1,251.72 62.59
29 1,189.13 59.46
30 1,129.68 56.48

[belvedere86]

do we also need to calculate the percentage everytime our BR goes up?

[RaRhythm24]

Wow Guys, thanks for your help, a lot of useful information here, i like the 5% rule, i feel very comfortable with this amount of betting on a game.

[dantanner]

do we also need to calculate the percentage everytime our BR goes up?

Keep the bet amount the same. If you adjust when the bankroll goes up (or down) you are still varying the amount of each bet.

ALL BETS SHOULD BE FOR THE SAME AMOUNT

That's my view anyway.

[mwgriffin]

I bet a max of 10% of my bankroll per day. I will never go broke doing this. If you bet 5 games at 5% for 2 days, you will lose almost half of you bankroll! It's really hard to double your bankroll, therefore, I bet small. I try to find 3 or 5 games I am really confident in. I will only bet 1 game if that is all I can find though.

Capping is a marathon, not a sprint. Try to be that last man standing!

[mwgriffin]

As my bankroll increases, my bet sizes increase to stay at 10%. Self control is a must.

stay out of the casino!

[nitsuj378]

From what I have studied and from my experience, bankroll management is a HUGE part of sports betting success. I see a lot of posters playing 7% and higher as a unit size and personally I think that is too high. %2-%5 is a better line. The purpose of good bankroll management is to withstand variance and losing streaks. I feel that flat betting is the way to go. Here is a small example I was given...

Say you start with a 5k bankroll betting to win %5 per play and you run good for the first 3 weeks of the season. (%65 = running good)


Weeks 1-3 (20 plays)
15-5 = 65%
Profit = 2375

Ok so now you bankroll is 7375 and you want recalculate a bet size. So you recalculate to 370 (roughly %5) and you run bad for the next 3 weeks (%40 = running bad)

Weeks 4-6 (20 plays)
8-12 = %40
Profit = -1924

This is a total winning percentage of %57.5 (23-17) which is good percentage in any good cappers opinion. However you profit is of only 451 for the 6 weeks of betting. If you would have flat bet it would look more like this...

Weeks 1-6 (40 plays)
23-17 = %57.5
Profit = 1075

This is just an example of unit betting vs flat betting. All in all if you are a capper that can consistently beat the sport with a positive ROI then flat betting is the way to go. This way you can spend more time on finding your edges and shopping lines and finding ways to increase volume without decreasing win% and all that other fun stuff that comes with the game. This is my honest opinion and take it for what its worth. Best of luck this season!

Justin

[JosephPavs]

do we also need to calculate the percentage everytime our BR goes up?

Yes, when you are on a hot streak your bets increase on a cold streak it goes down

For easy math look at what winning and losing at 10% does over 7 games

1000
1100
1210
1331
1464
1610
1771

And

1000
900
810
729
656
590
531


Ok so winning your BR is up 77% and losing your BR is down 47%

Is that the same as hedging? I think so and if you stick to it easy math

[dantanner]

Looks good on paper, but that is only 7 losses or wins in a row which rarely happens.

Set a betting unit for the season, stick to it, and spend your time handicapping or applying a system (same thing). It is easier, and has proven to eb the best way to win. The only question for most is how much of the bankroll to risk per game, or per week.

I use 10, but I bet small. The bigger the bettor the smaller the percentage you should use.

[JosephPavs]

Looks good on paper, but that is only 7 losses or wins in a row which rarely happens.

Set a betting unit for the season, stick to it, and spend your time handicapping or applying a system (same thing). It is easier, and has proven to eb the best way to win. The only question for most is how much of the bankroll to risk per game, or per week.

I use 10, but I bet small. The bigger the bettor the smaller the percentage you should use.

Thank you for making my point

I was using best/worst case senarii

[jolmscheid]

So which is ULTIMATELY better?

1) Keeping the same unit size the entire season (This is hard when multiple seasons overlap)

2) Re-Calculate the unit size after each day / wager

3) Re-Calculate the unit size when the bankroll increases or decreases by 25%

[jolmscheid]

Thoughts??

[shawnjohn5]

Definitely option three..

[dantanner]

So which is ULTIMATELY better?

1) Keeping the same unit size the entire season (This is hard when multiple seasons overlap)

2) Re-Calculate the unit size after each day / wager

3) Re-Calculate the unit size when the bankroll increases or decreases by 25%

I like option one, and a new bankroll for every sport.

There are plenty of variables to consider without having to worry about how much you are going to bet this week. Besides, what if you go on a hot streak and get up 25%, raise your bet, then go cold for a while? You should never employ a strategy than can deplete your bankroll faster than you can build it.

Just me...

[RaRhythm24]

From what I have studied and from my experience, bankroll management is a HUGE part of sports betting success. I see a lot of posters playing 7% and higher as a unit size and personally I think that is too high. %2-%5 is a better line. The purpose of good bankroll management is to withstand variance and losing streaks. I feel that flat betting is the way to go. Here is a small example I was given... Say you start with a 5k bankroll betting to win %5 per play and you run good for the first 3 weeks of the season. (%65 = running good) Weeks 1-3 (20 plays) 15-5 = 65% Profit = 2375 Ok so now you bankroll is 7375 and you want recalculate a bet size. So you recalculate to 370 (roughly %5) and you run bad for the next 3 weeks (%40 = running bad) Weeks 4-6 (20 plays) 8-12 = %40 Profit = -1924 This is a total winning percentage of %57.5 (23-17) which is good percentage in any good cappers opinion. However you profit is of only 451 for the 6 weeks of betting. If you would have flat bet it would look more like this... Weeks 1-6 (40 plays) 23-17 = %57.5 Profit = 1075 This is just an example of unit betting vs flat betting. All in all if you are a capper that can consistently beat the sport with a positive ROI then flat betting is the way to go. This way you can spend more time on finding your edges and shopping lines and finding ways to increase volume without decreasing win% and all that other fun stuff that comes with the game. This is my honest opinion and take it for what its worth. Best of luck this season! Justin

Thanks for the info, never really looked at this way, makes a lot of sense, i'm going with betting 5% (Risk 125 dollars) flat betting for every game i decide to place a bet.

[jolmscheid]

I agree that ultimately keeping the unit size the same is the BEST way to do it....but of course you would want to have a very small unit size for the INEVITABLE cold streaks.....BUT for someone who is trying to grow their bankroll to a point where they can then flat bet a small percent of their roll and still make good money, I think raising the unit size is OK....but again, this is riskier...

[mwgriffin]

So which is ULTIMATELY better?

1) Keeping the same unit size the entire season (This is hard when multiple seasons overlap)

2) Re-Calculate the unit size after each day / wager

3) Re-Calculate the unit size when the bankroll increases or decreases by 25%

2, but take a few days off after a cold streak - never try to get back a few days losses with one bet