rochs preseason money thread

[jayc63]

Nice night Roch...appreciate the picks and insight in this thread. I got lucky and got a push with the Jags as the line moved by the time I got on them.

Thanks again.

[slyone66]

nice call roch on Patriots. you were right about Lions, they came out like they were playing superbowl,

[canepole]

good picking rock

[rochestertitans]

+9.1 on the week thus far for us

[rochestertitans]

7-7+9.1

[rochestertitans]

i personally have +8.1 because of my colts ml

[rochestertitans]

31-18 +85.5 units

(93.4 units for me parley win, colts ml loss)


saints left

[rochestertitans]

im only having one play next week, i know what it is, im going big just because thats how i am, you bet what you can.

[a4u2fear]

im only having one play next week, i know what it is, im going big just because thats how i am, you bet what you can.

what do you think of NO 1H -3?

[rochestertitans]

i don like half bets.. but it seems solid

[rochestertitans]

ok i lied ill have 2 plays next week same game one big

[a4u2fear]

i don like half bets.. but it seems solid

You should look into them. They are much easier than you think. Im 11-1 in 1H bets, with the only loss coming off GB having a TD called back, then missing a FG at the end of the first half.

[FlaxMartin]

When will you tell us what your bets are?

[NOREGRETS]

Roch, do you still like Saints at -6?

[LT Profits]

This is wrong. The books are exposed with NE tonight. Where did you come up with that assumption that more $$ is on DET? Based on the RLM? This is what I'm talking about that it's not as basic and straight forward as it appears on the surface.

YES!

If you believe otherwise, then you don't believe that money moves lines. Why would the books invite more money on Pats at -3.5 if they were "exposed"? That would make zero sense.

[rochestertitans]

ehh 6 value is gone.. ill tell plays when lines come out i dont care what the lines are tho

[LT Profits]

ehh 6 value is gone.. ill tell plays when lines come out i dont care what the lines are tho

I don't see -6 anywhere, guy that posted that should bet Raiders at his book and bet more on Saints at a "real" book.

[bobbyk1133]

YES! If you believe otherwise, then you don't believe that money moves lines. Why would the books invite more money on Pats at -3.5 if they were "exposed"? That would make zero sense.

Sometimes books take a position on a game (did you happen to see the final score?). If they wanted to balance out the action they would have moved the line higher for NE. Sharps didn't attack the +4 early in the week and there was only moderate interest in it on game day. Also, -4 to -3.5 isn't a noteworthy move and not all books did it.

More $$ wasn't on DET like you assumed so your theory doesn't hold much weight.

You are right that money moves lines because it is a market, but if you think you can understand why lines are moving based on public betting percentages then you're not much brighter than a square.

[LT Profits]

Sometimes books take a position on a game (did you happen to see the final score?). If they wanted to balance out the action they would have moved the line higher for NE. Sharps didn't attack the +4 early in the week and there was only moderate interest in it on game day. Also, -4 to -3.5 isn't a noteworthy move and not all books did it.

More $$ wasn't on DET like you assumed so your theory doesn't hold much weight.

You are right that money moves lines because it is a market, but if you think you can understand why lines are moving based on public betting percentages then you're not much brighter than a square.

I strongly disagree because what you are proposing is that books are putting themselves in the position of "gambling", which they would never do intentionally. And the line closed at -3, most had Pats -3 -120 and Pinny had -3 -115, which IS significant compared to -4. I should have said Pats -3 in my previous post instead of -3.5.

[LT Profits]

And come to think of it, it doesn't even matter which one of us is right because both theories lead to the same conclusion: that the team with the RLM is the sharp side.

[bobbyk1133]

Knowing what the bet percentages are is very helpful, but it's only a partial picture. It doesn't differentiate between a small bet and a big bet. Do you have info on where the $$ actually is? Where/when there is balance and when is there not?

You're trying to talk like an expert by interpreting the line movement, but you're essentially just guessing.

If the public is 80% on one side but the line moves a point other way, you just assume thats where the sharp $$ is. If you truly believe that is always the case and letting that influence your handicapping then you're basically just flipping a coin.

Sometimes sharps bet a game and books respect it with a line move, other times they bet a game and it doesn't get respect. Can you explain why this happens? Do you know when a line moves because it's a true position on a game or if it's just to set up a position on it for later? The same questions apply for late action on a game.

Sometimes books move a line because they respect specific sharps. It doesn't have to get steamed or bet massively by syndicates for something to happen.

Unless you're connected to what's going on behind the scenes people have no idea what's behind most line movement. There could be a lot going on behind a RLM and taking a simple look at ticket counts couldn't be more deceiving.

[LT Profits]

Knowing what the bet percentages are is very helpful, but it's only a partial picture. It doesn't differentiate between a small bet and a big bet. Do you have info on where the $$ actually is? Where/when there is balance and when is there not?

You're trying to talk like an expert by interpreting the line movement, but you're essentially just guessing.

If the public is 80% on one side but the line moves a point other way, you just assume thats where the sharp $$ is. If you truly believe that is always the case and letting that influence your handicapping then you're basically just flipping a coin.

Sometimes sharps bet a game and books respect it with a line move, other times they bet a game and it doesn't get respect. Can you explain why this happens? Do you know when a line moves because it's a true position on a game or if it's just to set up a position on it for later? The same questions apply for late action on a game.

Sometimes books move a line because they respect specific sharps. It doesn't have to get steamed or bet massively by syndicates for something to happen.

Unless you're connected to what's going on behind the scenes people have no idea what's behind most line movement. There could be a lot going on behind a RLM and taking a simple look at ticket counts couldn't be more deceiving.

Yes BUT REGARDLESS the reason for the RLM, it always points you to the sharp side. Think about all the examples you and I have given:

1 - Truly sharp money cause RLM

2 - Book takes a position and moves line against betting percentages

3 - Book moves on faces instead of money. Now if the respected face is on the public side, we would not see it, but if he is on the minority side and the book moves, it gets picked up as RLM.

I can't think of a single case where RLM (assuming high volume) does not put you on the sharp side.

[bobbyk1133]

I can't think of a single case where RLM (assuming high volume) does not put you on the sharp side.

There's many different reasons that could be behind RLM....what time of the week is it happening? How much of a move was there? Does it go back to where it started? Was a key number involved?

Sharps could be battling it out on both sides of the line. This could cause RLM depending on the level of action and who's behind it. You can also get heavy bets on the opposite sides from squares. This can cause RLM. A ton of teaser action can influence RLM situations.

Also I couldn't disagree more about books not taking a stand on a game. Books absolutely take a position on a side sometimes. Yes, the majority of the time they want a true line, but not always. At times they are exposed based on action, sometimes they are exposed based on choice.

[LT Profits]

There's many different reasons that could be behind RLM....what time of the week is it happening? How much of a move was there? Does it go back to where it started? Was a key number involved?

Sharps could be battling it out on both sides of the line. This could cause RLM depending on the level of action and who's behind it. You can also get heavy bets on the opposite sides from squares. This can cause RLM. A ton of teaser action can influence RLM situations.

Also I couldn't disagree more about books not taking a stand on a game. Books absolutely take a position on a side sometimes. Yes, the majority of the time they want a true line, but not always. At times they are exposed based on action, sometimes they are exposed based on choice.

The reason I said "assuming high volume" is that RLM should not even be looked at until late in the week, and by definition, RLM always measures the movement from the OPENING line. I agree that key numbers are important and that 1/2 point RLM moves around 3 and 7 are more indicative than full points on other spreads.

[bobbyk1133]

I think this is a conversation for another time in another thread. We've already hijacked Roch's enough. We can agree that money moves lines, and sharps have more influence than squares, but as for RLM for now we can agree to disagree. I just never like to assume what a line move means unless I get more information.

[mitchp]

Did i miss it, was there anything posted for Monday Night?

[LT Profits]

Did i miss it, was there anything posted for Monday Night?

No there was not yet, and Roch had no play on the game when it was scheduled for Saturday

[celtics12]

No there was not yet, and Roch had no play on the game when it was scheduled for Saturday

hes on NO-4

[LT Profits]

hes on NO-4

He asked about Monday

[celtics12]

my bad, no sleep since friday been out all night/day in boston, days have meshed together i thought it was monday!

[drew2]

great week rochs thanks, any pick for tomorrow?

[sabe]

Oakland almost made me shit my pants when they were making a run in Q3.

[doin]

8/7/2011
#2 rams -6.5 2 w
steelers/redskin U 33 2 w

8/10/2011
#31 rams -7 3 w
ravens +3 2 l
titans -3 3 w

8/11/2011
#38 cards +3.5 5 w
cards +160 2 w

8/12/2011
#87 bengals +4 2 l
chiefs O33 4 l
chiefs O32 3 l
pitt U33 4 w
rams -6.5 2 w

8/13/2011
#135 Steelers under 33 4 w
browns -2 3 w
vikings TT U 14.5 10 w

8/15/2011
#173 texas/jet O34 5 w
#177 texas/jet O35 2 w
texas TT O17.5 5 w

8/16/2011
#216 tampa -1 5 l
pit -3 3 w
tampa tt o19.5 5 l
eagles TT U15.5 3 w
tB gm O36.5 3 w
steelers U34 3 l

8/19/2011
#291 3-3, 14-7 +30 units

#294 skins -5 10 w
skins TT o20 5 l
ravens TT O19.5 3 w
atl TT O16.5 4 l
car TT O14 3 w

8/20/2011
#336 16-10 +30.1 unit
#337 parlay titan +3.5, titan U37, ram TT u20 3 . 18 don’t sum
#363 3-0 +28 = 58.1

8/21/2011
#378 jets -6 3 w
bengals Tt U14.5 7 w
#396 dallas U 39.5 5 w
#433 3-0 22-10 +73.1 unit
#442 bears TT U15.5 7 w
giants -4.5 4 w bear/giant U35.5 7 l
#505 24-11 +76.4 unit

8/25/2011
#546 panthers +3 3 l
panthers U34 3 l
skins over 33 3 l
skins +5.5 4 w
skins TT over 14 3 w
browns +7.5 3 l
browns O38 3 l
colts +10 4 w
jags even 5 l
dolphins +3.5 4 l
lions +4 7 w
lions +170 2 w
bears +3 10 w
bears +150 3 l
denver -4 3 l
saints -4 3 w
panther/brown O 3 w

8/26/2011
#611 colts ml 1 l

8/28/2011
#670 7-7 +9.1
#672 31-18 +85.5


Found DATE, POST #, gamble, UNITS and l / w. Damn fun capping, roch. Your style in presentation is difficult sometimes and thought MAYBE a couple folks would like to see it all in one shot. tell me to erase if you want. Jan

[SethM_6]

whats everyone thinking for the monday nighter? im thinkin jets

[a4u2fear]

whats everyone thinking for the monday nighter? im thinkin jets

Jets 1H