Week 17 - Who's Playing to Win and Who's Ready For the Offeseason/Postseason?

[Dexter]

This isn't even handicapping, it's common knowledge. Saying shit like the Niners are inspired because the coach got sacked isn't capping.

what is "handicapping" to you? looking at straight statistics?
its not "common knowledge" to someone who looks at lines/stats only and doesnt follow the sport. as shocking as it may seem, i bet half the people in this forum didnt know the niners fired their hated coach.

teams due tend to play very well first game when a hated coach gets fired. (see phillips and childress this year)

[Dexter]

I don't understand why everyone keeps saying KC has nothing to play for? A 3rd seed over a 4 seed is pretty big this year imo! Nobody wants to play New England 2nd round....plus the way things sit now.....playing the struggling Jets instead of Baltimore would be helpful too! Oakland couldn't stop Indy on the ground (190 yds) this one won't be pretty imo....only 1 KC home win under 4 points this year!

ur right...my bad. i edited my post...

[mebaran]

Bears @ Packers - bears wont know until the 1pm games are done if this game will be meaningful. the packers need the win to get in.

http://www.sportingnews.com/nfl/stor...en-bay-packers

Heard from a La Crosse Wisc. radio station that Jay Cutler was quoted as saying, "I'm playing this week against GB"

[Lockitup1x]

Thanks for putting this info in one spot, knowing motivation is part of capping, even if it is common knowledge.

[BennyFang]

Motivation IS huge....always, at least as much as the numbers. Seems like few are talking about the Ravens.... Love em Sunday. Maybe Cin is overhyped after 2 straight wins?

[TheBet]

the biggest mistake made by public bettors, is taking the team in week 17 with something to play for, vs the team out of the playoffs. if anything, take the team with nothing to play for.

O really? What are you trying to say buddy?

Of course the fact that Pro-bowl MLB Patrick Willis isn't playing helps the Niners cause too? How about you do some real research instead of pulling sh1t out of your ass like "they're motivated because singletary is gone" and "don't play teams that are motivated to win".

Logic prevails amongst foolishness.

[Dexter]

O really? What are you trying to say buddy?

Of course the fact that Pro-bowl MLB Patrick Willis isn't playing helps the Niners cause too? How about you do some real research instead of pulling sh1t out of your ass like "they're motivated because singletary is gone" and "don't play teams that are motivated to win".

Logic prevails amongst foolishness.

i am saying not to overlook the team with nothing to play for.....if you think they always roll over in these spots, then you are brand new to sports gambling.

you're so angry and confrontational. i have seen your act in other threads. you're one of those classic posters who acts like sam rothstein yet never has a thread of documented plays.

if you actually look at my nfl thread you will see that the niners are also a system bet of mine this week. so if you're trying to imply that the only reason i took the niners was b/c of singeltary, you're wrong skippy.

cheer up - you wreak of anger and hatred from behind your keyboard.

happy new year grumpy...

[TheBet]

That's what happens when you run out of claims to support your side online, start accusing the other person of being "a sorry, no life noob gambler". Congrats!

How about you do some real handicapping instead of trying to use ESP to predict games?

[Dexter]

damn bro.....we should just call you sammy rothstein jr!

http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-talk/862766-fish-there-any-reason-back-iowa-today-p3.html#post8117176

point me to your thread of plays so i can just tail a genius like you....haha

[Dexter]

That's what happens when you run out of claims to support your side online, start accusing the other person of being "a sorry, no life noob gambler". Congrats!

How about you do some real handicapping instead of trying to use ESP to predict games?

hopefully one day you will start your own thread of plays/analysis and i can learn from the best.....

you are so transparent.

[TheBet]

At least I'm not trying to pull shit out of my ass and pass it off as handicapping.

"The Niners are motivated to win because Suckleberry got fired"
"Don't bet on teams that are motivated to win"
"Teams that got their HC fired do really good, look at Minny/Dal"

So two samples are good enough to make that analysis? How about you dig a little deeper, I'm willing to bet that the numbers aren't good for teams who had their HC fired the week before.

Do you even know who's the HC for the Niners? Tomulusa? tom-a-who?

Okay all-mighty capper, 49ers it is!

[Dexter]

At least I'm not trying to pull shit out of my ass and pass it off as handicapping.

"The Niners are motivated to win because Suckleberry got fired"
"Don't bet on teams that are motivated to win"
"Teams that got their HC fired do really good, look at Minny/Dal"

So two samples are good enough to make that analysis? How about you dig a little deeper, I'm willing to bet that the numbers aren't good for teams who had their HC fired the week before.

Do you even know who's the HC for the Niners? Tomulusa? tom-a-who?

Okay all-mighty capper, 49ers it is!

first off - chill with all the smileys....im starting to worry that im interacting with a 14 year old.

this is not my thread for plays. i was simply trying to start an informational thread that everyone can contribute to and post news on player status etc in a week where many players get rested.

i have always looked at all angles when capping games - you consistently point to this singeltary blurb i made as the sole reason i took sf. as you can see in my thread (where is yours again?) sf is also a system play for me.

cheer up bro....seriously

[TheBet]

So all I have to do is make a thread with my plays, call it a system, then I can be like Dexter?

What are your reason for taking the Niners? Besides the all mighty Suckleberry getting sacked?

[Dexter]

So all I have to do is make a thread with my plays, call it a system, then I can be like Dexter?

What are your reason for taking the Niners? Besides the all mighty Suckleberry getting sacked?

arizona has 5 wins this year. their previous 4 wins have been followed up by:

L by 34
L by 31
L by 12
L by 7

last year i started a system of fading any team that won a nationally televised game in the following week. last year, it wound up hitting around 65% ats (all plays were posted in my 2009 thread).

this year, the system has sucked....hitting at 38%. so yeah, i have to rethink that one for 2011.

[TheBet]

arizona has 5 wins this year. their previous 4 wins have been followed up by: L by 34 L by 31 L by 12 L by 7 last year i started a system of fading any team that won a nationally televised game in the following week. last year, it wound up hitting around 65% ats (all plays were posted in my 2009 thread). this year, the system has sucked....hitting at 38%. so yeah, i have to rethink that one for 2011.

[Dexter]

how did i know that response was coming.

cheer up guy.....it cant be that bad

[TheBet]

Can't be worse than 38%.

[Dexter]

Can't be worse than 38%.

i only created this thread so we can all combine info to try and beat the books - too bad it got diverted with your confrontational nonsense.

good luck this weekend bro...