bears +1.5 too good to be true or def locktown?

[mcbaseball10]

go with your gut. Go bears.

[ATTACH]19981[/ATTACH]

[MoneyM1ke]

I have Bears + 1.5

[Nickelicious]

I think you've got it backwards if you ask me. I posted my thoughts about this in my thread here: http://forum.sbrforum.com/nfl-handic...-73-plays.html

Here are some key notes that I like that go against your statements:

-Bears are traveling on a short week. Their D won't be up to their norm.
-Jay Cutler hasn't had a been as bad as normal the last two weeks - and the Bears just barely squeeked by in those games. Miami has a much better pass rush than the Vikings and Bills (almost as many sacks as both teams combined) so I think they will generate enough pressure to make Jay Cutler turn it over 3 times.
-Tyler Thigpen isn't very bad. He doesn't turn the ball over, and he is good on the run - something he'll need to be against a solid Bears pass rush.

You can read the rest in my thread.

That's a pretty decent write-up you have on the game, Eric. But I think you give Tyler Thigpen too much credit. Yes, he had 18 TDs vs. 12 picks with the Chiefs, but he completed less than 55% of his passes and his QB rating was 76.0. He was effective vs. the Titans for one quarter last week, but that isn't enough to expect him to be effective against the Bears. If anything, that one quarter against the Titans will work to the Bears advantage as they now have recent film on him. Remember this; the Bears lead the NFL in creating turnovers, and they are facing a 3rd-string QB who hasn't had much experience at all in the past couple years.

Thigpen and the Fins will need to do a lot of dinking and dunking to move the ball on the Bears, because Thiggy doesn't have a great vertical game, and the Bears don't give up the long ball (their 6.0 yards-per-pass-attempt is the best in the NFL). The Bears are a good tackling team, which will help against Thiggy's downfield scrambles. The Fins will probably run a lot of bootlegs and screens, plus the ol' wildcat, which might be effective for a few plays, but expect a lot of 3rd and longs on Thursday night. Remember this too; the Bears are 2nd in the NFL in scoring defense and 4th in the NFL in yardage defense. And they won't be any more tired than the Dolphins on Thursday night.

As for the Thursday Night Road Game curse, last season the road team went 5-3 in these games, and since 2006 they have won 53% of the games. It's really not a factor.

As for the Bears offense, they are still pretty anemic, but they are feeling more confidence lately and ran up their 2nd highest yardage total of the year against the Vikings last week. The Bears converted on 11 out of 19 third downs last week, which is a critical improvement for them. Martz is spreading the ball around and mixing his play calling up more than we was early in the season. Forte and Taylor combined for 102 yards against the Vikes (not great, but it kept Minnesota's defense off balance), and Cutler completed passes to nine different receivers. The Bears gave up 24 sacks in October but only 2 in the past two weeks. I expect the Dolphins will get to Cutler more than that, but if you give Cutler time he has good field vision and a monster arm.

The Bears also have a huge advantage in special teams offense, where they are no. 1 in punt returns and no. 4 in kickoff returns for average yardage (with Hester doing kickoffs only since last week). The Fins are no. 27 and no. 25 in those categories, so if this turns into a field position battle, advantage Bears.

I don't expect a blow-out on Thursday, but I do think the Bears will keep their momentum going against a mediocre Dolphin team with a lot of injuries and six starters on IR (the Bears are one of the healthiest teams in the league). Get that +105 money and take the Bears straight up.

[V2daTizzo]

line smells like a trap

[marcoloco]

loving the bears also

[Hat McCulloch]

Tyler Thigpen and a backup center.

that trumps Cutler woes for me. I don't trust it but I have to take the Bears.

[icancount2one]

Bears are who we thought they were as Julius Peppers goes wild.

[gshock1]

Dolphins are the play. Thigpen is also a better QB than Henne and Pennington. Don't be fooled here.

[Crnjak]

huge play Bears +1.5!!

[teddyd]

dolphins all the way...

[dmtrader]

The Bears are playing on the road on a Thursday night - that usually spells disaster.

and, teams without their starting QB tend to cover the spread, if only because opposing teams do not get up for them.

Got to go with Miami - 1.5. But I need Cutler to have a good game for my Fantasy team.

[305GURU]

I like the home team on a short week and miami i feel found its offense a little last week vs the titans so i see a close game miami 23-16

[ouman101]

Dolphins are the play. Thigpen is also a better QB than Henne and Pennington. Don't be fooled here.

Thigpen may be decent, but don't kid yourself. If Thigpen was the better QB, he wouldn't be their 3rd stringer.

[hubie69]

Great photo.

Thanks man, it's amazing the pics of randy moss you can find with a quick images.google.com search

[LT Profits]

Thursday Home favorites are 38-24-2, 61.3% ATS and 47-17, 73.4% straight up since 1985 (I mention the SU because this line is so low).

No this is not one of those random Marc Lawrence days of the week stats, this one has validity because the added travel for the road team cuts into the already limited preparation time.

[hubie69]

I'm starting to swing back to the bears side here, Isn't miami terrible at home this year?

[LT Profits]

As for the Thursday Night Road Game curse, last season the road team went 5-3 in these games[/B]

But home FAVORITES went 3-1. There were a lot of road favorites in Thursday games last year (and they went 4-0), so those don't apply here.

[Spartan14745]

The Bears don't have to worry about the Vikings in the division now that they've beaten them and they have a win over the Packers so they've got to be feeling like they control their destiny to win the division. I know it's a short week for them but with a 3rd string QB and injuries on the Dolphins I gotta with a play on the Bears. I don't trust Cutler, but I do trust their defense, and defense wins games. Bears 22-14. GL! Gotta love Thursday night action!

[pavyracer]

Dolphins will play very conservative with only one healthy QB because if he gets hurt early it's wildcat for the rest of the night. Bears know this and they will punish the toothless Dolphins early and often.

[305GURU]

I'm starting to swing back to the bears side here, Isn't miami terrible at home this year?

They havent played good @ home BUT they shouldve beat the steelers (were robbed) and last week really pushed fishers titans around so i think the home situation is done with from here on out theyll be tough @ home happens every year i live in miami and im not a fin fan but follow them every year fins 23-16

[LT Profits]

I'm starting to swing back to the bears side here, Isn't miami terrible at home this year?

Not terrible no. They are 1-3 winning their first home game last week vs. Tennessee. But look at the 3 losses: 31-23 to the Jets with a chance to tie the game at the end of regulation; by rights they really beat the Steelers, but the refs made bad call on Big Ben fumble even after replay; the big loss to Patriots was entirely due to special teams, Pats only had one sustained touchdown drive.

Not to mention those are all good teams that are all better than the Bears.

[nbarlotta3]

Definitely taking the Bears here.

[hubie69]

Not terrible no. They are 1-3 winning their first home game last week vs. Tennessee. But look at the 3 losses: 31-23 to the Jets with a chance to tie the game at the end of regulation; by rights they really beat the Steelers, but the refs made bad call on Big Ben fumble even after replay; the big loss to Patriots was entirely due to special teams, Pats only had one sustained touchdown drive.

Not to mention those are all good teams that are all better than the Bears.

Excellent points LT. Do you know what they are ATS @ home this year? I know they lost the Pats game ATS at home but don't recall what the other spreads were

[cadillac pete]

Not reading into this too much....Bears +1'...no way I'm backing the 3rd stringer here.

[d2bets]

Anyone care that Miami is 6-25 ats L31 as home faves?

[no1here]

Chicago sucks and Miami is a good team and their defense knows what they need to do to win this. Miami is not relying on their offense today and this will be a low scoring game. What's the stats for points scored by 3rd stringer replacement. Commen sense tells me low. My first bet of the year is Miami.

[DVEGAS]

Bears + Peppers = W

Peppers will take poor pig-pen out in first qtr

[2Bdown]

Anyone care that Miami is 6-25 ats L31 as home faves?

very interesting stat d2

[DVEGAS]

no one here-

How could you say chicago sucks? Did you bet them and they screw you cause cutler threw 3 picks? They do not suck...they are one of the better teams in the NFC, their Defense and Special Teams can win a game on their own.

Steven Segal called and asked for his hairstyle back!

[hubie69]

DVEGAS---sorry but the bears do suck. The bears are an incredibly shitty team. The problem is that the NFC as a whole is down this year.

With that said, I do believe the bears cover tonight. Teased, Bears +7.5 and the under

[Nickelicious]

But home FAVORITES went 3-1. There were a lot of road favorites in Thursday games last year (and they went 4-0), so those don't apply here.

Valid point, LT, and I didn't have that breakdown from where I stole that statistic of 5-3. But if D2bets stat of the Dolphins being 5-26 ATS as home faves is also true, it trumps the Thursday Night stat (the Fins are 1-2 ATS this year as home faves).

The Bears are 3-1 ATS as underdogs and 2-1 ATS as away dogs this year. They get up for these kinds of games, for whatever reason. Nobody thought they would beat the Cowboys on the road in the 2nd game of the year and then they dominated most of the game and won. The Vikes were the popular pick last week against the Bears and Chicago dominated that game.

Miami was impressive in beating a good Titans team last week, but I think their injuries are going to catch up with them this week. I don't see domination tonight by either team, but the Bears will get a couple big plays from Cutler, a couple big plays from special teams, and a couple big turnovers to slug out a win.

[DVEGAS]

??? NFC is down ??? And how do you know this? Which AFC team would u like to put up against the Eagles right now?

How you say a 6-3 team is shitty is interesting. Sounds like you ve been burned by cutler on a few bets too.

A 6-3 team is not "shitty"

They have one of the best Defenses in the entire league w urlacher, briggs, and peppers. If the offense can stay away from turnovers (cutler)....they win a lot of games vs AFC or NFC, period!

[ex50warrior]

That's a pretty decent write-up you have on the game, Eric. But I think you give Tyler Thigpen too much credit. Yes, he had 18 TDs vs. 12 picks with the Chiefs, but he completed less than 55% of his passes and his QB rating was 76.0. He was effective vs. the Titans for one quarter last week, but that isn't enough to expect him to be effective against the Bears. If anything, that one quarter against the Titans will work to the Bears advantage as they now have recent film on him. Remember this; the Bears lead the NFL in creating turnovers, and they are facing a 3rd-string QB who hasn't had much experience at all in the past couple years.

Thigpen and the Fins will need to do a lot of dinking and dunking to move the ball on the Bears, because Thiggy doesn't have a great vertical game, and the Bears don't give up the long ball (their 6.0 yards-per-pass-attempt is the best in the NFL). The Bears are a good tackling team, which will help against Thiggy's downfield scrambles. The Fins will probably run a lot of bootlegs and screens, plus the ol' wildcat, which might be effective for a few plays, but expect a lot of 3rd and longs on Thursday night. Remember this too; the Bears are 2nd in the NFL in scoring defense and 4th in the NFL in yardage defense. And they won't be any more tired than the Dolphins on Thursday night.

As for the Thursday Night Road Game curse, last season the road team went 5-3 in these games, and since 2006 they have won 53% of the games. It's really not a factor.

As for the Bears offense, they are still pretty anemic, but they are feeling more confidence lately and ran up their 2nd highest yardage total of the year against the Vikings last week. The Bears converted on 11 out of 19 third downs last week, which is a critical improvement for them. Martz is spreading the ball around and mixing his play calling up more than we was early in the season. Forte and Taylor combined for 102 yards against the Vikes (not great, but it kept Minnesota's defense off balance), and Cutler completed passes to nine different receivers. The Bears gave up 24 sacks in October but only 2 in the past two weeks. I expect the Dolphins will get to Cutler more than that, but if you give Cutler time he has good field vision and a monster arm.

The Bears also have a huge advantage in special teams offense, where they are no. 1 in punt returns and no. 4 in kickoff returns for average yardage (with Hester doing kickoffs only since last week). The Fins are no. 27 and no. 25 in those categories, so if this turns into a field position battle, advantage Bears.

I don't expect a blow-out on Thursday, but I do think the Bears will keep their momentum going against a mediocre Dolphin team with a lot of injuries and six starters on IR (the Bears are one of the healthiest teams in the league). Get that +105 money and take the Bears straight up.

Nice post--think I'll join you on the ML.

[BrownTown]

Jay Cutler just called and said you are way wrong on this one.

I don't care that the public is on the bears, chi is still the right side, good defense and o line starting to come around, the dolphins are not a good enough team to rely on a qb managing the game

[solid152]

Bet your kids, bet your house, bet your wife on DA BEARS