taking your ball and going home, D3? LOL! my god.
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ladies.Comment -
Releasing all plays with final unit counts wagered on each
As I said earlier, I am projected to do really well this week so really betting big on each play. Very confident. I would be shocked to lose ANY of my plays this week. Last time I said all this was Thanksgiving ,and we all know how that went.
If you want to tail and win, this is your chance to win BIG.Comment -
Hey SSK, my book has NE at -3.5 --- you still think it's LOCK at that price?
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Just buy half a point to be safe. I wouldn't say it's a LOCK at -3.5. Because a push is very possible. But still a good play.
Just tail me on the rest when I post my plays and you'll still do very good.Comment -
Agreed, but then again, the Pats are not dogs in this game. They have to win and cover by 3. Your ML play might hit, but ATS is a coin toss. And yes, I will bet against Brady's record ATS this coming Monday.
Do you know Brady's record ATS at home since 2006? If you don't, I'll tell you.
2006: 3-5
2007: 5-3
2008: 3-4-1
2009: 5-3
2010: 2-1-2
total: 18-16-2
While not a losing record, it's not an unblemished record of 24-0.
Also, the Jet's have won 8 consecutive regular season road games dating back to last year. 5-0 this year. While not all road wins were as dogs, 8 consecutive road game wins is quite a feat in the NFL. Do you really want to bet against that? Their ATS record as road dogs dating back to 2006? 15-8. I'll take a gamble on 15-8 over 18-16-2 any day.
The Pat's best defense is when Tom Brady and the offense is on the field...Comment -
He's saying a push is very possible in his -3 bet which makes it a lot better of a bet than -3.5, hence buying the half point to give the opportunity for a push.Comment -
Thanks for the picks SSK. This thread is getting clogged w/ garbage, that's too bad.
I like the fact that you think the Seahawks will win. We need a freakin' "W" badly.Comment -
Official Week 13 Play Card
2 Team Teaser (6 points)
Eagles -2
Cheifs -2
Risk 27.5 to Win 25
Patriots -175 ML
Risk 26.2 to Win 15
Patriots -3 ATS
Risk 18.8 to Win 15
Rams -3 ATS
Risk 18 to Win 15
Seahawks -6 ATS
Risk 16.5 to Win 15
Ravens -150 ML
Risk 7.5 to Win 5
3 Team Teaser (6 points)
Saints -0.5
Colts +0.5
Seahawks pk
Risk 25 to Win 45
3 Team ML Parlay
Eagles -375
Chargers -600
Packers -525
Risk 15 to Win 11.4
3 Team ML Parlay
Colts -245
Chiefs -430
Chargers -600
Risk 10 to Win 10.3
ATS Parlay
Saints -6.5
Colts -5.5
Seahawks -6
Patriots -3 (-125)
Rams -3 (-130)
Ravens -3
Risk 4 to Win 173.2
3 Team Teaser (6.5 Points)
Rams +3.5
Patriots +3
Ravens +3.5
Risk 10 to Win 16
Have any questions about any of the picks let me know. But like I said, with high analyst projections, MM team going in hard. Should be a huge weekend.
I'll be surprised to lose any of these bets (except maybe ATS 6 team parlay lol)Comment -
OK, but that's only half the equation. What about the Jets wins on the road? Are you just discounting that?
OK, I'll narrow Brady's ATS record down for you even more. FYI, since 2006 in home games where NE was favored by 3 points or less, their record is 3-3-2. Not stellar and basically a coin flip. So out of 24 games where Brady has won at home since 2006, Brady has a record of 15-13 ATS where the spread was larger than 3 points. That's better than the 3-3-2 when the spread was 3 points or less. Hmmm. That goes against your theory.Comment -
ATS record doesn't matter with -3, if you win straight up then you are pushing the -3 at worst about 95% of the time. Personally I don't know why anyone would ever play the ML on a team -3 or less ever, there is just so little value in the -1 and -2. In the last 2 weeks only one game has been decided by 2 points or less.Comment -
anyone ever buy the half point when it's +/- 3 ATS??Comment -
Good Luck this week man
Hope you cash in big
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Why don't you combine your two big teasers into one 7 point teaser? Saints, Eagles, Chiefs, Seahawks, Colts -- 7 point teaser pays 4:1 and they're large bets for you anyway
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Well 1st of all, I don't make the final bets. I tell my leans and probabilities, and I have a team, the pick management team, that makes them into picks. Their goal is to try to create the most profitable combination of picks. So I have no control over that.
But yeah, I'm trying to figure out WHICH one of those teams will have the most trouble. Seriously? I see all those teams covering easily.Comment -
I have a question....You bet SO many units. What is 1 unit in your terms? 10$? or what?Comment -
uhm?: +clueless
Did I miss something? that's 22+ units away from your original bets? NOW you're downgrading??? Even AFTER you told everyone to pound the early Teaser among other things...
Like I hate having to continue being the watchdog for your poor accounting, but this is beyond any logical understanding... You know you're talking about someones $22,000 here?Comment -
SO many units? You haven't been following this thread have you.
1st of all, as I've said before, units in this thread has nothing to do with real life for me. My real bankroll was very low to start this season, so I usually would have 100% of my bankroll on the line every week. It's gotten much bigger now.
But for this thread I started with 100 units. This 100 units was assumed to be a large amount, for example 1 unit = 1k. So I had to use good money management, the most I'd bet on a game was 10% of my bankroll (10 units), and normally 3-5%. Kind of aggressive for a large amount, but I'm that good.
Now you are probably wondering then, what is going on this week then? Well I'm projected to do really good, and I have a Money Management team that based on these projections (which have proven to be correct) has decided to be VERY aggressive this week.
So in summary, 1 unit has no relation in real-life, but is supposed to be a considerable amount of money (1k). But this week I will do very well. So you can watch from the side or join the ride.Comment -
I said this a while ago. It's not like I'm gaining any advantage. And the amounts are still LARGE. So ultimately I gained nothing, still have a large amount of my bankroll on the line, and everything is still proportionally as large (in other words, the teaser still is huge, the lock still is huge, and so on for all those tailing).
So it doesn't make ANY difference. Come on BetterBizness, don't make this an issue. It has no affect. If I win, I'll still win big, if I lose, I'll still lose big.Comment -
Ok I got it.. you didn't have enough bankroll to place your original bets to cover your parlays and teasers, so you WENT BACK and took your bets back to make the new bets...
No need to explain.. I got it now... The thread actually had some potential for a little while last week... And then THIS week then you decided to do ONE MORE ridiculous thing... Can you seriously just stay within some sort of rule system so people don't ALWAYS have to call you out...Comment -
Ya but YOU said you started with 100 Units... YOU made the rules... part of the lesson is MONEY MANAGEMENT... YOU Spent the "money"... You can't just take them back now... That's how YOU chose to diversify... That's how people following you wll choose to follow you... Have you ever wandered to ANY other part of this forum... When people say 10x, or 5x, or 50x.. People Follow them based on the confidence that that "x" is... Then when you go back on it, "no I really meant 5x instead of 10x.. no big deal"... What do you think that tells someone?
I'm not at all saying that's what someone did... But if you're going to play the game, play it right... Most people here have UNLIMITED Units... That's fine, but that's NOT what you have... because that's what you told us... you will use the 100 units to make your wagers... and you ALREADY put those units in play.. Good or Bad...
You think this is a small thing, but it's one of the biggest things you've done wrong based on YOUR OWN set of rules...Comment -
Yeah yeah you got it. It was either doing what I just did, or taking a "loan" from the bank. I think the "loan" idea would have more bad responses. Though it might be worth a try at some point. But what I did really has NO affect, on anything. Bets are still huge, still the same bets, still will either lose or win big, and so on. And since it has like no affect, no one would really call me out on it....except of course you lol. Every little thing.Comment -
It has NO affect. I still lose big, win big. I still have HUGE amounts (more than any other games/weeks) on each game. It's still very serious either way. Sure it's not technically correct, but since it has no real affect, it's okay.
And it was either this or a "Bank Loan". Which one do you think is a better idea?Comment -
But the thing with the 10x and 5x thing is, I still have 10x confidence on it. My bets are bigger than every before. The confidence is still there. It was just a matter of letting my pick and money management team better allocate the units in the picks.
I had 100+ units in play? I still DO. It's not like I'm using more units than I have made so far now.
Like I said betterbizzness, no one would care besides you. Because it has NO affect and it is just being picky.Comment -
Buddy BANK LOAN??
Don't turn this more into a Sheit show then it already is... You Made a bankroll, and now you don't want to stick with it... Why is this so difficult???
You are GAINING Bets based on taking back bets that you "theoretically" already made...
The sad part here is that I'm probably SAVING you money from your original intent when you lose the 20 other parlays... But if you going to maintain any integrity in what you're betting, You need to stick to your own rules... Pretty sure everyone but Tree would agree with me... it's sketchy...
Like I said, this week alone is already making you look like a tool for putting your entire bankroll in Jeopardy... You were actually starting to look like you had a plan for the past 3 weeks, slow and steady... Now this... I want to cheer against you because I really think you need some lessons in Bankroll mgmt... But then the Thread would stop, and I would be sad...
Or I guess you could just find another 100 samolians or whatever, and Start a new Thread...Comment -
Buddy BANK LOAN??
Don't turn this more into a Sheit show then it already is... You Made a bankroll, and now you don't want to stick with it... Why is this so difficult???
You are GAINING Bets based on taking back bets that you "theoretically" already made...
The sad part here is that I'm probably SAVING you money from your original intent when you lose the 20 other parlays... But if you going to maintain any integrity in what you're betting, You need to stick to your own rules... Pretty sure everyone but Tree would agree with me... it's sketchy...
Like I said, this week alone is already making you look like a tool for putting your entire bankroll in Jeopardy... You were actually starting to look like you had a plan for the past 3 weeks, slow and steady... Now this... I want to cheer against you because I really think you need some lessons in Bankroll mgmt... But then the Thread would stop, and I would be sad...
Or I guess you could just find another 100 samolians or whatever, and Start a new Thread...
I actually asked everyone if they think its wrong or bad or would care. One responded saying he wouldn't care, and the others didn't even care enough to post that. Why? Because it has NO AFFECT. I still have the same bets, and I still lose big or win big. So why would anyone care?
I gave myself a bankroll. I am still using bets WITHIN that bankroll. It's not like I have 200 units on the line when I only have 180 units. I have 180, and that is how much I'm using.
Does this make sense? I still am using MY OWN BANKROLL this week. Not extra units from a loan or something. I just readjusted the bet sizes per bet, but the total bets size is the same.
Either way, it has no affect.Comment -
So in the end... Professionalism means nothing... I'm just being picky...
K man.. do well with that then... You bring out your inexperience on an hourly basis... There are people in this forum who, despite being amateur betters, are extremely Professional in the craft and communication of handicapping...
You, are NOT....You may be one day.... But for now, picking winners is the LEAST of your worries...Comment
