SSK's NFL Thread

[big0mar]

It's a Team that helps me LOCK games. I hired them when I made this thread. I hit 90+% long-term with them. That's all there is to know about it. Any more discussion about my "Lock Team" is off-topic. This topic is about NFL picks.

How can you have hit long-term with them, if you just hired them when you made this thread?

[BetterBizness]

I respectfully disagree with your opinion on your near lock of Washington... MY "Fade" team has not qualified it yet as pure fade material... But I believe this game is a trap, and may or may not bet it as such... We all need to consult further however...

[ssk13809]

You shouldn't be hesitant. Sometimes the lines are just there. Play the hot hand

Yes exactly what I'm doing this week.

[ssk13809]

I respectfully disagree with your opinion on your near lock of Washington... MY "Fade" team has not qualified it yet as pure fade material... But I believe this game is a trap, and may or may not bet it as such... We all need to consult further however...

lol

1st of all, public is on MINN

2nd, if you want to FADE me this time, say so BEFORE the game is over. Don't come in claiming you faded me after I lose when you never say anything like that before the game starts.

[bobbyk1133]

It's a Team that helps me LOCK games. I hired them when I made this thread. I hit 90+% long-term on LOCKS with them. I am 5-0 so far. That's all there is to know about it. Any more discussion about my "Lock Team" is off-topic. This topic is about NFL picks.

I'm confused. You hire ppl to make your picks?

[ssk13809]

How can you have hit long-term with them, if you just hired them when you made this thread?

Long-Term for me = 1+ years regardless of how many plays. They go to work after 4 weeks of action. That's why they joined me Post Week 4, and thats when I made this thread. I was with them last year. Went 7-0. Check 1st page with links to that run.

[ssk13809]

I'm confused. You hire ppl to make your picks?

I make the pick. But they LOCK it. That's their job, to LOCK picks. If they don't approve it, it ends up as a "Near Lock" like the rest of my ATS plays.

But I take the best picks of the week and use them for my ATS picks.

[BetterBizness]

lol

1st of all, public is on MINN

2nd, if you want to FADE me this time, say so BEFORE the game is over. Don't come in claiming you faded me after I lose when you never say anything like that before the game starts.

i think you may have missed the part where I don't care what you think about when I fade you... as long as the bet is in I am MORE than willing to share a screenshot... Believe me, LYING to you is the LAST thing in the world I would want to do to give you any more credit then is due...

All I'm saying is I don't believe it's anywhere near a 'loch-ness monster'... you will find that out the hard way as well...

[big0mar]

Long-Term for me = 1+ years regardless of how many plays. They go to work after 4 weeks of action. That's why they joined me Post Week 4, and thats when I made this thread. I was with them last year. Went 7-0. Check 1st page with links to that run.

7 game run!

[ssk13809]

i think you may have missed the part where I don't care what you think about when I fade you... as long as the bet is in I am MORE than willing to share a screenshot... Believe me, LYING to you is the LAST thing in the world I would want to do to give you any more credit then is due...

All I'm saying is I don't believe it's anywhere near a 'loch-ness monster'... you will find that out the hard way as well...

But the thing is when you LOSE your fades I will never hear anything about them. You don't have to post a screenshot or even tell me you lost fading me. So it's 1 sided. Only when you fade me and win do you come in and say anything.

[bobbyk1133]

I make the pick. But they LOCK it. That's their job, to LOCK picks. If they don't approve it, it ends up as a "Near Lock" like the rest of my ATS plays. But I take the best picks of the week and use them for my ATS picks.

Do you have a NEAR LOCK team?

[big0mar]

We all want to make money off sports. Particularly here, the NFL. Well, if you want to win consistently in the long-run in the NFL, there is only 1 way. Money-Lines. No not ATS or Totals. You might do great short-term (like 70% me), but will struggle in the long-term.

But one thing I think you can consistently win is the Money-Lines. Why? Mainly, because there is a lot less luck involved, giving more consistent results. The problem with ATS and Totals is this: The team you bet on is not playing with the same goal as you. However, when you bet MLs, the team you bet on and you have the same goal, and that is to win.

None of that last minute giving up TD because the game wasn't on the line and you didn't play hard defense. That is the luck variance in ATS and Totals. Won't happen in MLs. This is why MLs are more consistent, and spreads are not.

Couldn't make this up if I tried

[ssk13809]

Do you have a NEAR LOCK team?

No. Once again, this is not football. Too much discussion is going on my teams. It's not rocket science.

[ssk13809]

Couldn't make this up if I tried

Do you have nothing better to do than bump my old quotes? The quote explains why I do MLs the most often and try to limit myself on ATS. I used to do like 5 ATS plays/week at some point. Though these days I have once again found confidence on ATS.


MLs are still my most consistent source of winning though.

[ssk13809]

Ok guys back on topic so people can read


My Picks this Week


ATS: (All of these are "Near Locks")


Patriots -6.5
Risk 11 to Win 10

Saints -3.5
Risk 11 to Win 10

Redskins -2.5
Risk 11 to Win 10






3 Team ML Parlay

Patriots -290
Saints -200
Jets -450

Risk 5 to Win 7

3 Team Teaser (6.5 points)

Patriots pk
Saints +3
Jets -2.5

Risk 10 to win 13








I will post more picks for Sunday later this week.

But the books will be giving us quite a bit this Thanksgiving Thursday









Any comments? I can give reasons to any of the games if asked. Let's discuss football!

[BetterBizness]

But the thing is when you LOSE your fades I will never hear anything about them. You don't have to post a screenshot or even tell me you lost fading me. So it's 1 sided. Only when you fade me and win do you come in and say anything.

I'm still not sure why you care... I sure don't... I know the bottom line in that last game, which is that I bet Atlanta thanks to YOUR writeup... can't you just be happy for me... I even gave you 2 points for it... Why are you such a hater?

This week, I disagree with your assessment of Washington, and believe it is a trap... But Until I actually PLACE the wager, I'm not going to sit here and blindly say I'm going to fade you... I can't fade you on EVERY pick... I actually like some of your picks... Particularly the Saints... But I also think the Pats are pure Trap as well... Your Teaser has potential as well... But again, I will have to consult my "fade" team to see what they think.. I've had them for 2 weeks and they are 1-0 so far...

[ssk13809]

I've had them for 2 weeks and they are 1-0 so far...

See this is what I'm talking about. You can go 100-0 if you say you "faded" after the games are over.

[BetterBizness]

My Fade Team ...

[BetterBizness]

Fade Team is saying they Like new coach to win on the road in first game... They say that 2.5 is looking mighty trappy... In Fact fade team is looking hard at Minny ML... Will let you know what they think when they think it...

[BetterBizness]

3 Team ML Parlay[B]

Patriots -290
Saints -200
Jets -450

Any comments? I can give reasons to any of the games if asked. Let's discuss football!

I thought you said you were going to give up on the Heavy ML Chalk?

Not ONE of these picks is anything near a lock IMO... of course they CAN all win... but together? I think best upset is Pats here...

[ssk13809]

Fade Team is saying they Like new coach to win on the road in first game... They say that 2.5 is looking mighty trappy... In Fact fade team is looking hard at Minny ML... Will let you know what they think when they think it...

If you want to state "records" for your "Fade Team", make sure you say you will fade BEFORE the game starts lol.

Otherwise you can go 1,000-0, simply by saying you faded everytime I lose, and not saying anything everytime I win.

[ssk13809]

I thought you said you were going to give up on the Heavy ML Chalk?

Not ONE of these picks is anything near a lock IMO... of course they CAN all win... but together? I think best upset is Pats here...

Nah, never said that. Someone recommended it though. But I'm sticking with them. New England wins for sure.

[big0mar]

Do you have nothing better to do than bump my old quotes? The quote explains why I do MLs the most often and try to limit myself on ATS. I used to do like 5 ATS plays/week at some point. Though these days I have once again found confidence on ATS.

At what point?

MLs are still my most consistent source of winning though.

Consistent winning? Where? You got buried in all your other threads

[bobbyk1133]

Saints -3.5 Risk 11 to Win 10 Any comments?

You could have gotten NO -3 on the opening line.

[BetterBizness]

Other than your hard on for Belicheck, why do you think NE will win this week.. Because "Detroit Sucks"?

[ssk13809]

At what point?



Consistent winning? Where? You got buried in all your other threads

I got buried MLs in all my threads? What are you talking about? Check my ML record in my Sig.

[ssk13809]

Other than your hard on for Belicheck, why do you think NE will win this week.. Because "Detroit Sucks"?

1st of all, Bill Belichek is the greatest coach of all-time.


Lions suck. They suck even more on Thanksgiving. What 0-7 last 7 games Thanksgiving? And they suck even more now that Stafford and Best are BOTH gone. Patriots are just going to come in, and blow them out.

[big0mar]

1st of all, Bill Belichek is the greatest coach of all-time. Lions suck. They suck even more on Thanksgiving. What 0-7 last 7 games Thanksgiving? And they suck even more now that Stafford and Best are BOTH gone. Patriots are just going to come in, and blow them out.

[bobbyk1133]

Lions suck.

You do realize that DET is 7-2-1 ATS this season? That happens to be the best in the NFL....

[big0mar]

I got buried MLs in all my threads? What are you talking about? Check my ML record in my Sig.

Sounds buried to me...

So to counter these Non Real-Life/SBR Only Losses...

I am going to counter with another Non-Real Life/SBR Only bet, and make up all my "SBR" losses that I don't deserve. It will be a big bet making up the 10 units. I'll update my units if I need to if I lose that. Otherwise, I'm not going to bother with these fake losses, because I will break even anyways and they are unimportant.

But notice I am NOT JUST not counting those "losses" and just forgetting about them. I am counting them, and will recover from them next bet. But just don't want to concentrate on them, because this is about making money in real life.

This way, I'll keep my SBR Record and Real Life record in good shape.



Note: To my fans, please don't follow this pick. It's a personal. And I won't be betting it in real-life. It's just to make up these Fake SBR Losses and make my SBR record right. I'll highlight this "personal SBR" pick. Don't put your money on it. I won't be putting mine either.

[ssk13809]

^^^

That never happened. I counted the loss. Didn't do any "make-up" game. It was actually just like a 10 unit loss. Hardly buried lol.

[Numb]

Other than your hard on for Belicheck, why do you think NE will win this week.. Because "Detroit Sucks"?

Now, "Detroit sucks"?

[ScottLocke]

Agree with the Redskins, I really really like them this week, might be my POTW. Teams that had their head coach fired normally do struggle the following week, obviously Dallas earlier this year was the exception, not the rule. Teams that fired their head coach midseason are 3-11 ATS in their first game with the interim coach in the last 10 years.

Don't like New Orleans this week, but you already know that. Don't see much value in the Pats either, but I hate laying more that 3 points on the road, especially when its a short week and they are coming off two huge wins. Of course Detroit looks like they are about to fall apart so this could really go either way.

[ssk13809]

Agree with the Redskins, I really really like them this week, might be my POTW. Teams that had their head coach fired normally do struggle the following week, obviously Dallas earlier this year was the exception, not the rule. Teams that fired their head coach midseason are 3-11 ATS in their first game with the interim coach in the last 10 years.

Don't like New Orleans this week, but you already know that. Don't see much value in the Pats either, but I hate laying more that 3 points on the road, especially when its a short week and they are coming off two huge wins. Of course Detroit looks like they are about to fall apart so this could really go either way.

Well yeah I obviously really liked the Redskins too. I thought it was a LOCK. Kind of disappointed when my LOCK team didn't agree. Still a cover and a win though

[ssk13809]

The main thing to be concerned about with the Patriots going into Detroit, would be a letdown. Patriots taking the Lions too early. Not coming in prepared against a supposed "easy" opponent. And so on.

However, this is clearly not the case. I have been down here at NE practices the last couple of days, and I can assure you the Patriots are not taking the Lions lightly. They are working hard. It seems they have learned their lesson after the Browns loss. What happens when you take an "easy" opponent lightly. This was an important lesson for the team, which the team already has learned.


Here are some quotes from some players I noted:

“He really stays on top of us, and makes sure that were not getting overconfident or believing in the noise outside the locker room and understand that every game’s tough in the NFL.”

-Wes Welker

"We are going to give it our best like we did against the Steelers and Colts. We have limited time and we are doing our very best to prepare for the Lions"

-Deion Branch

“We saw what happens when you don’t execute, especially early in a game, with Cleveland. We can’t afford to come out and play a game like that, so when you’re playing on the road, and it’s an environment like this, it’s a short week, you’ve got to keep on top of everything.”"

- Matt Light

“We came in Monday and we didn’t even talk about the Colts, We talked about the Lions and what we need to do to beat them. We talked about coming in and having a good day today, so we crammed a lot of information into these two days.”

- Tom Brady

"We have to win this weekend. We have to. "

-Bill Belichek



Take NE in a blowout victory with confidence