Kroyrunner's 2010 System Plays

[xillent23]

hm im gona follow this thread... very interesting lol

keep me posted when week 6 is up i look fwd!

[75_Percent]

Bills/Jags way over 41! I agreed with that all the way. Easy pay.

[kroyrunner89]

Week 6:

System 1:
Pit/Cle UNDER 37.5
Chi/Sea UNDER 37.5
Dal/Min UNDER 44.5
KC/Hou UNDER 45
Ind/Was UNDER 44

System 2:
Atl/Phi UNDER 42.5
Den/NYJ OVER 42.5
Stl +9


Another week with a lot of unders, in system 1 overs are a lot less common than unders but I normally don't have this kind of imbalance. Let's hope they do a bit better this week, GL all!

[GunShard]

I just thought of a good idea.

If your system loses most of the time, how about fading your own system, system? That could work, lol.

[jhack704]

not good kroy!

[jhack704]

i feel for you, you could b 3-10 today on plays although i know you didnt play these

[kroyrunner89]

Week 6:

System 1:
Pit/Cle UNDER 37.5
Chi/Sea UNDER 37.5
Dal/Min UNDER 44.5
KC/Hou UNDER 45
Ind/Was UNDER 44

System 2:
Atl/Phi UNDER 42.5
Den/NYJ OVER 42.5
Stl +9

System 1: 1-7
System 2: 4-5

I just thought of a good idea. If your system loses most of the time, how about fading your own system, system? That could work, lol.

Lmao that sure would have been a good strategy last week! Granted some of these were very tough beats but that's how it goes sometimes. I'm still deciding how much to read into this, on one hand it looks like I made a mistake thinking that these systems would be ready before their normal Week 9 launch, on the other hand it's only two bad weeks. I'll keep throwing these up regardless of how badly it's started, but just keep in mind Week 9 is the magic week here. Until then, exercise caution and don't play one or fade one just because it's a system play. I could tell all of system 1 was playing with fire last week which is why I didn't bet any (thank god), would have made great teasers though! System 1 is a bit more reasonable this week, System 2 has a bizzarely high number of plays so we'll see how that goes. Enjoy the rest of the ride!

[kroyrunner89]

Week 7:

System 1:
SD/NE OVER 47 (NOT A PLAY IF GATES IS OUT)
Min/GB UNDER 44
Pit/Mia UNDER 40.5

System 2:
Green Bay -2.5
New England +3
Oakland +8
Tampa Bay -3
Cleveland +13 (NOT A PLAY IF CRIBBS IS OUT)
Ari/Sea UNDER 40.5
Den/Oak OVER 41.5
GB/Min UNDER 44
TB/Stl UNDER 38

[HauntingTheHoly]

Kroy, can you talk about how the systems work a bit? Obviously I don't mean spell it out down to the last - but what sorts of things get factored in for selecting games? How'd all those plays get flagged for system 2? Weird to see ATS and Totals in the same system. Not that'd I'd know too much b/c I don't use any systems.

[kroyrunner89]

Both are statistical formulas off of team's passing, rushing, special teams (both offense and defense).... how each aspect of their game has performed so far based off of expectations and strength of opponents, how each aspect of their game matches up with their upcoming opponent, and then finally after calculating expected yardage the coming game scoring efficiency is brought into the mix and a points estimate is calculated for each team. The two equations are a bit different from each other, but in both you're going to see more unders than overs. System 1 will most likely have less plays than System 2 when all is said and done, it's quite a bit more selective. Like I said earlier system 2 is purely testing right now, I just thought of a different angle I'd like to approach the equation from and it backtested pretty well. But we won't really know how it can perform til we test it going forward, and like System 1 I believe it will be at it's strongest Week 9 and after. I think the lack of team stats impacts #2 less though which is why I'm doing sides earlier on it, we'll see how that goes.

Systems get run for every game, based off of how different my game predictions are from the Vegas line it may or may not be a play. So for one reason or another System 2 really picked up on a lot and flagged them as plays this week. Some weeks we'll have lot's, some we won't, once again though exercise caution until Week 9 on both. Hope that helps!

[bobbyk1133]

game scoring efficiency is brought into the mix

What does this mean?

[tonyp0387]

All i see is unders on all the high powered offenses.

[kroyrunner89]

What does this mean?

My metric that I use for scoring efficiency is yards per point scored. Basically how well a team turns it's yards into point, if you want to look for good Superbowl bets check the teams that are doing the best in this metric midseason. Typically it continues. Last year the Saints ranked #1, the Colts ranked #3 if I remember right. The Vikings, who lost in the NFC Championship were #2. Each of the past 5 years there's at least 1 team playing in the Super Bowl that's top 5 in this category.

All i see is unders on all the high powered offenses.

Unfortunately that's how it broke last week, luckily that statistical imbalance was thus corrected a bit as those totals all went over. The Green Bay and Minnesota under does look good to me though, without Finley the Packers offense becomes a whole lot more average as we've seen the past couple of weeks

[bobbyk1133]

My metric that I use for scoring efficiency is yards per point scored. Basically how well a team turns it's yards into point, if you want to look for good Superbowl bets check the teams that are doing the best in this metric midseason. Typically it continues. Last year the Saints ranked #1, the Colts ranked #3 if I remember right. The Vikings, who lost in the NFC Championship were #2. Each of the past 5 years there's at least 1 team playing in the Super Bowl that's top 5 in this category.

Be careful when evaluating YPPoints. Points are one of the most deceiving stats in the NFL unless you go into them further and break it down to eliminate variance/outliers, etc.

Red zone defense/offense is a good stat to compare with yardage. Good luck this week.

[kroyrunner89]

Be careful when evaluating YPPoints. Points are one of the most deceiving stats in the NFL unless you go into them further and break it down to eliminate variance/outliers, etc. Red zone defense/offense is a good stat to compare with yardage. Good luck this week.

Agreed 100%, although I feel like it tends to correct itself throughout the season but it definitely explains why my system struggles up until mid-season

[KennyM10]

Hope you can turn the ship around, good luck with your plays this weekend.

[kroyrunner89]

Week 7:

System 1:
SD/NE OVER 47
Min/GB UNDER 44
Pit/Mia UNDER 40.5

System 2:
Green Bay -2.5
New England +3
Oakland +8
Tampa Bay -3
Cleveland +13
Ari/Sea UNDER 40.5
Den/Oak OVER 41.5
GB/Min UNDER 44
TB/Stl UNDER 38


System 1: 1-10
Sides: 0-0
Overs: 0-1
Unders: 1-9

System 2: 11-6
Sides: 6-2
Overs: 3-0
Unders: 2-4


Thoughts:
Unders across the board are performing awful. It appears I was most certainly mistaken starting up system 1 before it's traditional Week 9, I won't be making that mistake again. System 2 has looked very good though, I'm going to start putting a little more trust in it (aside from the unders). See you all next week!

[kroyrunner89]

CORRECTION:
System 2 is 11-7
Unders are 2-5 in it

[jhack704]

kroy leave system one go, and leave it play the unders, then just fade and itl be 10-1 thats incredible, you dont need a system that puts out winners, just a system that is consistant one way or the other

[kroyrunner89]

Another very imbalanced week for plays, hopefully System 2 has another solid week...

System 1:
Carolina/St. Louis UNDER 37

System 2:
Buffalo +7.5
Houston +5.5
Seattle +2.5
Carolina/St. Louis UNDER 37
Dallas/Jacksonville OVER 42.5
Denver/San Fransisco OVER 41.5
Green Bay/New York (A) UNDER 42
Seattle/Oakland UNDER 42.5

[kroyrunner89]

System 1:
Carolina/St. Louis UNDER 37

System 2:
Buffalo +7.5
Houston +5.5
Seattle +2.5
Carolina/St. Louis UNDER 37
Dallas/Jacksonville OVER 42.5
Denver/San Fransisco OVER 41.5
Green Bay/New York (A) UNDER 42
Seattle/Oakland UNDER 42.5

System 1: 2-10
Sides: 0-0
Overs: 0-1
Unders: 2-9

System 2: 16-10
Sides: 7-4
Overs: 4-1
Unders: 5-5

[gv12]

system 2 looks solid kroy, GL with your plays this week.

[kroyrunner89]

system 2 looks solid kroy, GL with your plays this week.

Thanks gv! We're finally at Week 9 which means sides get introduced for System 1 and I'm now fully confident in it as this is my typical week of launch. Still, the early performance for totals is slightly concerning. Hopefully things get on track! Here's Week 9:

System 1:
Detroit +4
Indy +3
NYG -7
SD -3

System 2:
NYG -7
Ari/Min UNDER 41
Cle/NE OVER 43.5
NYG/Sea UNDER 41

[jhack704]

Kroy, what is your recored past 2 yrs week 9-on

[kroyrunner89]

Kroy, what is your recored past 2 yrs week 9-on

Posted plays Week 9 or later are 103-63-3 ATS (62.05%)

[kroyrunner89]

System 1:
Detroit +4
Indy +3
NYG -7
SD -3

System 2:
NYG -7
Ari/Min UNDER 41
Cle/NE OVER 43.5
NYG/Sea UNDER 41

System 1: 6-10
Sides: 4-0
Overs: 0-1
Unders: 2-9

System 2: 18-12
Sides: 8-4
Overs: 5-1
Unders: 5-7


(Since Week 9)
System 1: 4-0
Sides: 4-0
Overs: 0-0
Unders: 0-0

System 2: 2-2
Sides: 1-0
Overs: 1-0
Unders: 0-2

[kroyrunner89]

Systems collectively went 5-2 last week (one win was an overlap), I believe that's three straight winning system weeks. Now I just have to take the all important step of putting the right ones out as my official plays in my other thread. If I had any brains I'd be dangerous! Here's what the systems are liking this week:

System 1:
Texans +1.5
Chiefs -1
Patriots +5
Eagles -3
Rams +6
Titans -1.5
Dal/NYG OVER 45.5
Chi/Min UNDER 40.5

System 2:
Eagles -3
Rams +6
Sea/Ari UNDER 41
Stl/SF UNDER 38.5

I'm waiting for word on the Detroit QB situation, I have a couple more plays depending on what happens there. Good luck this week everyone!

[kroyrunner89]

System 1:
Bills/Lions OVER 43.5
Lions +3

Two additional system plays since Hill is starting at QB

[kroyrunner89]

System 1:
Texans +1.5
Chiefs -1
Patriots +5
Eagles -3
Rams +6
Titans -1.5
Dal/NYG OVER 45.5
Chi/Min UNDER 40.5
Detroit +3
Det/Buf OVER 43.5

System 2:
Eagles -3
Rams +6
Sea/Ari UNDER 41
Stl/SF UNDER 38.5


System 1: 12-14
Sides: 8-3
Overs: 1-2
Unders: 3-9

System 2: 20-14
Sides: 10-4
Overs: 5-1
Unders: 5-9


(Since Week 9)
System 1: 10-4
Sides: 8-3
Overs: 1-1
Unders: 1-0

System 2: 4-4
Sides: 3-0
Overs: 1-0
Unders: 0-4

[kroyrunner89]

Week 11

System 1:
Lions +6
Raiders +7
Bucs +3
Titans -7
Chi/Mia UNDER 40
Sea/NO UNDER 44

System 2:
Broncos +10
Packers -3
Patriots -3
Seahawks +11.5
Titans -7

Strangely not many totals this week, can't say I'm thrilled to keep seeing unders the way those have been hitting but hopefully the sides come through for us! Good luck everyone!