Kroyrunner's 2010 System Plays

[kroyrunner89]

For those of you familiar with my past work, you're aware that I developed a statistical system in 2008 that has been a huge part of my success and a big part of the reason I started posting plays in the first place. This year, I wanted to track all of these plays in a separate thread. Typically I haven't launched my system until Week 9 of the NFL season, but through a few years of studying it I believe the totals system is ready to run now. So, here's some points for this thread I'd like you all to keep in mind:

• Past performance doesn't guarantee future results: While my system has done well up to this point I'm well aware it could crap out at any time. Don't go crazy betting it guys.
• Just because I have a system play doesn't mean I personally support the play! Some of these I'll bump up to official plays over in my other thread, but what you see in here is all strictly what the numbers indicate and there is no personal opinion factored in.
• I've been experimenting with a new system and am excited with results I've seen backtesting. I'll include these too labeled as a separate system, be cautious because it has yet to be tracked going forward.
• While the numbers for my primary system have been positive at years end, it tends to be inconsistent. So let me stress again, don't go crazy betting these. Play conservative as you would with anything else should you choose to tail any plays. Last season the system struggled with ATS plays up until Week 13 when it went on a 9-0 run in a three week span. Other than those three weeks it was 11-12 ATS.

So, my normal system I've been using the last two years will be labeled as "System 1 Plays". The new one I'm testing will be known as "System 2 Plays". Hopefully these systems perform well this season and we make bank, overall this thread is just for tracking purposes though and testing the new system. My other thread will continue to run and that's where you should go for picks I will actually be betting. Good luck to us!

[kroyrunner89]

Week 5

System 1:
Packers/Redskins UNDER 44
Ravens/Broncos UNDER 38.5
Vikings/Jets UNDER 39 (Does not account for Randy Moss trade)

System 2:
Chargers -6
Eagles +3
Bucs/Bengals UNDER 38
Jaguars/Bills OVER 41
Eagles/49ers UNDER 38
Chargers/Raiders UNDER 45


Remember, don't go nuts with these! Especially with System 2 since it's really being tested for the first time now. That's all for this week though, hopefully we get some good results!

[DJStroke]

interesting

[hubie69]

I'll give 'em a look this weekend.

[75_Percent]

i like the jaguars/bills over 41...both of their D's suck big statistically and don't pressure the QB a lot, so even Fitzpatrick & co. might actually get something done this game. Betting on the over in this game as long as the weather is straight is a good concept.

[bobbyk1133]

I'm a little confused. Do you make your official plays based solely on your system or do you take other things into account? For example, I know these picks aren't official, but that is a lot of totals for 1 week coming from a "system".

[kroyrunner89]

I'm a little confused. Do you make your official plays based solely on your system or do you take other things into account? For example, I know these picks aren't official, but that is a lot of totals for 1 week coming from a "system".

Alright I'll try and explain. "System 1" is the system I've been using for the last two years. Traditionally I've launched it in Week 9, because ATS plays are useless up until that point. After a couple years of studying it, I've learned that Totals plays are actually good to go more like Week 4 (wish I had played them last week as they went 3-0), so this year I'm going to be using the system for exclusively totals up until Week 9. Then you'll see more of a balance, in fact totals plays will become rarer and you'll be seeing more ATS plays.

As for "System 2", this is purely experimental as I think I may have stumbled onto something but am not positive. It's completely different and unrelated to "System 1". Past results look great with it but you never really know with these things til you track them going forward. These plays would have been 3-3 last week, with sides going 2-3 and Totals going 1-0.

So, to answer you question, a good portion of my official plays will be based on system plays from this point on. But I'm of course going to look at each system play and figure out if I personally like it or not. I'll also be looking over all the other lines to see if I can find value somewhere that my systems didn't. Hope this helps lemme know if you have any more questions!

[opie1988]

Kroy- you do a good job with your informative posts. i appreciate your efforts. Thanks for taking the time to share your thoughts. Good stuff.

[bobbyk1133]

Where did you get your picks from for the 1st few weeks if you had no stats to go on and for totals you don't consider things like weather/domes, kickers, types of offenses/QBs, coaching philosophies, etc? I guess what I was asking is do you blindly trust your stats or do you take unmeasurables into account along with it?

[kroyrunner89]

Where did you get your picks from for the 1st few weeks if you had no stats to go on and for totals you don't consider things like weather/domes, kickers, types of offenses/QBs, coaching philosophies, etc? I guess what I was asking is do you blindly trust your stats or do you take unmeasurables into account along with it?

Oh I absolutely take unmeasurables into account. Obviously the system can't take those into account, so when I look over what the system recommends I take unmeasurables into account that it left out, that's a big part of what goes into my deciding whether or not to bet the play and what goes on my official card.

[bobbyk1133]

Oh I absolutely take unmeasurables into account. Obviously the system can't take those into account, so when I look over what the system recommends I take unmeasurables into account that it left out, that's a big part of what goes into my deciding whether or not to bet the play and what goes on my official card.

Ok thats' what I thought. I ask because there system guys out there who are strict technicians which I could never understand. There are so many other things to factor in, but if it works for them more power to them.

[Shahbucks]

I suck at totals. Trying them on paper so I'll definitely check this thread often.

[russwlms]

sounds great cant wait to see this weeks results!

[hitman2010]

Kroy best information stuffs, i wait to see the results on system II this week, like few of them.

[mark2010]

thanks for the effort. like some of the plays my self. looking forward for this wend. big games i see to win.

[DJStroke]

cool, I'm gonna try the system 1 and watch system 2...good work.

[kroyrunner89]

cool, I'm gonna try the system 1 and watch system 2...good work.

I'm actually not a huge fan of the Packers under, I can see that going over way too easily so be cautious with that one. Also, be careful with the Jets Under unless Revis is playing and covering Moss. Ravens and Broncos I feel fairly good about though, that could very possibly be a play for me this week. Good luck with whatever you decide on!

[alpine]

You can get phily +3.5 [i like 49ers -3 -20]

[kroyrunner89]

You can get phily +3.5 [i like 49ers -3 -20]

Right I know Pinnacle is offering that line, makes me a bit nervous because it looks like Pinnacle is begging for action on Philly. Usually when Pinnacle does that, that side loses. I very possibly will stay away from that Philly pick, still deciding

[Dark Horse]

Getting a little too glitzy in here for my taste.

Guy has a great NFL season, can't follow it up with the same (which is no shame, and has been experienced by many), and is forced back to the drawing board (welcome to the club). So far, so good.

The part I don't get is the great launch, and the type of talk (first paragraph of thread) as if you're still on top of the hill. You're beginning to sound like you want to be a tout a lot more than a gambler. Seen it before, including the following of ass kissers. So am I imagining things or did you just turn that corner for real?

[JosephPavs]

Kroy what is the system based on a team that underperformed the week before?

[bobbyk1133]

Getting a little too glitzy in here for my taste. Guy has a great NFL season, can't follow it up with the same (which is no shame, and has been experienced by many), and is forced back to the drawing board (welcome to the club). So far, so good. The part I don't get is the great launch, and the type of talk (first paragraph of thread) as if you're still on top of the hill. You're beginning to sound like you want to be a tout a lot more than a gambler. Seen it before, including the following of ass kissers. So am I imagining things or did you just turn that corner for real?

I don't think anyone with a half a brain have any illusions of what's going on.

[kroyrunner89]

Getting a little too glitzy in here for my taste. Guy has a great NFL season, can't follow it up with the same (which is no shame, and has been experienced by many), and is forced back to the drawing board (welcome to the club). So far, so good. The part I don't get is the great launch, and the type of talk (first paragraph of thread) as if you're still on top of the hill. You're beginning to sound like you want to be a tout a lot more than a gambler. Seen it before, including the following of ass kissers. So am I imagining things or did you just turn that corner for real?

First of all, don't judge this season until the end. Already saying I can't follow up with the same this season after four weeks is quite the rush to judgment. Secondly, I wasn't forced back to the drawing board. I've been using System 1 from the start of my NFL capping days, and I'm always looking for a new edge whether I'm succeeding or not. I developed System 2 over this summer, before I even knew how this NFL season was going to start off (and 8-9 ATS is no disaster by an stretch of the imagination).

I'm not quite sure what you mean by "great launch". I'm excited to have my system at my disposal again, as the majority of my positive results in the past have been as a result of it. This thread serves two purposes, inform any followers what my systems like and track them both (especially #2 as I have no idea what to expect). Don't see the problem with this or how it's toutish at all, I'm staying right here at SBR. For this season, no I'm not still on top of the hill as I've had a slow start. Long term, I've still got to be somewhere near at least as I'm sure there are very few cappers out there who hit 60%+ over a span of 200 plays. Don't declare me dead til the end of the season if my results still aren't there. 4 weeks in is a bit early to.

Kroy what is the system based on a team that underperformed the week before?

I don't have such a system, it can be a factor in my analysis but I haven't made a system out of it and don't really plan on it

[kroyrunner89]

I don't think anyone with a half a brain have any illusions of what's going on.

Again, I'm not going anywhere. If my systems work and I keep hitting at a high rate I don't need anyone's money. If I fall off and start struggling, who the hell would pay for that? If you guys don't care about my system plays that's fine I'll just keep it to my official plays thread then, just wanted to throw up any resource I could for everyone

[bobbyk1133]

Again, I'm not going anywhere. If my systems work and I keep hitting at a high rate I don't need anyone's money. If I fall off and start struggling, who the hell would pay for that? If you guys don't care about my system plays that's fine I'll just keep it to my official plays thread then, just wanted to throw up any resource I could for everyone

I'm just a neutral observer here. If I had any specific questions about what's going on here I would be more interested to hear about how you cap your games. I could care less what your future plans are or what they aren't. I haven't seen any problem with anything you've done so far, but I also wasn't born yesterday. I've seen your site and your promotions on other forums too. As long as you're winning more power to you.

[kroyrunner89]

I'm just a neutral observer here. If I had any specific questions about what's going on here I would be more interested to hear about how you cap your games. I could care less what your future plans are or what they aren't. I haven't seen any problem with anything you've done so far, but I also wasn't born yesterday. I've seen your site and your promotions on other forums too. As long as you're winning more power to you.

[gshock1]

Kroy, what's your feeling on the over in SD & Detroit -3?

[kroyrunner89]

Kroy, what's your feeling on the over in SD & Detroit -3?

I'm leaning much stronger towards the Under for SD and Oakland, SD has shown the unfortunate characteristic of shooting themselves in the foot with turnovers on the road last year, and their defense is going to smother Oakland. I'd be stunned if Oakland topped 17 points, meaning that the Chargers need to get at least 28 for this total to go over. The over is definitely a no-bet, the under is definitely worth considering.

As for Detroit/St. Louis, my lean would be with Detroit but I don't have a great read on the game. Good luck with whatever you decide to bet!

[EXhoosier10]

I'm leaning much stronger towards the Under for SD and Oakland, SD has shown the unfortunate characteristic of shooting themselves in the foot with turnovers on the road last year, and their defense is going to smother Oakland. I'd be stunned if Oakland topped 17 points, meaning that the Chargers need to get at least 28 for this total to go over. The over is definitely a no-bet, the under is definitely worth considering.

I feel the same way about that chargers game. I'll lean SD -6 though

[kroyrunner89]

I feel the same way about that chargers game. I'll lean SD -6 though

I'm likely playing both, no way it does worse than 1-1 and has a great shot at 2-0, I love situations like those

[gushman]

Good luck, will keep an eye on this

[cankid]

gl on your plays this week KOYRUNNER

[stuiees]

for every hater there are 50 people who appreciate the time you put into this forum. you dont have to do it, and really dont get anything out of it other than being able to share the winning experience with others looking to do the same. keep it up. peace!

[CatPulp]

Good luck, my man. I'll come along for the ride.

[kroyrunner89]

Week 5

System 1:
Packers/Redskins UNDER 44
Ravens/Broncos UNDER 38.5
Vikings/Jets UNDER 39

System 2:
Chargers -6
Eagles +3
Bucs/Bengals UNDER 38
Jaguars/Bills OVER 41
Eagles/49ers UNDER 38
Chargers/Raiders UNDER 45

Rough start, feel like we were on the right side of a few of those losers but in the end all that matters is what the scoreboard shows. Once all of the lines are up I'll have Week 6 posted, good luck in Week 6 to all

System 1: 1-2 ATS
System 2: 2-4 ATS