SSK's NFL ML Thread

[ssk13809]

As much as I'm sarcastic SSK... I know you're not a gambler, and I think you may figure it out one day... But you say some funny sheit in the meanwhile and this thread is entertaining as fvck!

I don't see what you are trying to say. I'm not an experienced gambler thus some things I say may not be accurate. I'm still learning. But I'll continue to win due to my NFL expertise.

ya lol its so funny that he dosent realise thats everyone knows hes just a noob haha. oh lol this is so funny.

Hey troll. I'm winning. As the wise man said, there are no beginners, no sharps, no squares, no pros....There are only winners and losers. I'm a winner.

[BetterBizness]

I don't see what you are trying to say. I'm not an experienced gambler thus some things I say may not be accurate. I'm still learning. But I'll continue to win due to my NFL expertise.

As long as you believe you are a winner.. than you are a winner... that's all that matters...

What I'm saying is you say some funny sheit as well to make coming here entertaining... Can't you be a winner AND be entertaining?

Hey troll. I'm winning. As the wise man said, there are no beginners, no sharps, no squares, no pros....There are only winners and losers. I'm a winner.

In all seriousness.. Which wise man said that? This isn't some Confucius thing is it?

[BetterBizness]

You guys are such haters, its obviously his first year and with that taken into consideration he isn't doing too bad. He'll get through all the rookie mistakes.

Totally NOT a hater... Sarcastic fvck maybe... But life's WAY too short to hate...

[ssk13809]

As long as you believe you are a winner.. than you are a winner... that's all that matters...

What I'm saying is you say some funny sheit as well to make coming here entertaining... Can't you be a winner AND be entertaining?

Hey hey, none of the "As long as you believe you are a winner" BS. I am a winner. The facts prove it. Go through the thread if you don't believe me.

But I don't get why you said I'll figure out I'm not a gambler. Well, I know I'm a winner, so gambling is for me. Trust me, I can win Short-Term Long-Term every week, and more.

But let me just say, I really WAS thinking about taking Browns ML, before I saw I had Saints in a parlay. Why did I have Saints in a Parlay? Simply because they were such big favorites I just threw them in. But, I am not making that same mistake again. If I think an upset is a good value play, I'm not including that team in the parlay. That's what I was trying to say earlier. I would've been SO much better off now if I did that.

In all seriousness.. Which wise man said that? This isn't some Confucius thing is it?

I heard it from some poster on SBR

[ssk13809]

But life's WAY too short to hate...

Agreed. I think ScottLocke, who is a hater himself, was talking about the other guy Rod who is a hater and a troll and a big joke.

[ScottLocke]

Just cause point out mistakes and give my opinions when mine differs from yours does not make me a hater.

[MJFtheGenius]

unreal

parlaying the spread and the teams ml

Just the fact the kid needed an explantion is ludicrous enough

[ssk13809]

unreal

parlaying the spread and the teams ml

Just the fact the kid needed an explantion is ludicrous enough

Hey I've never bet Parlays in my life before. What do you expect with someone who has never bet Parlays in his life and has only bet MLs and ATS?

[ssk13809]

Just cause point out mistakes and give my opinions when mine differs from yours does not make me a hater.

Dude, you are always wrong. Last week it was about Seattle. Even though I told you I live in Seattle and Seahawks WILL cover period. You'd just be hatin on my picks for no reason.

[MJFtheGenius]

Hey I've never bet Parlays in my life before. What do you expect with someone who has never bet Parlays in his life and has only bet MLs and ATS?

I expect someone who has atleast just the slightest amount of common sense

[ssk13809]

On a side-note, now I'm away from these contests (which require like 5 ATS Picks a Week), I can really show my ATS skills.


I'm very selective on ATS in general now. I only bet my "LOCKS" or near LOCKS. I usually hit 80-90% in ATS picks like these. And these usually start coming after I'm somewhat used to the NFL Season (Post-Week 4).


So far I'm 3-0-1.


Expect it to continue. But as I said, these are highly selective, but they will hit 80-90%.

[ssk13809]

I expect someone who has atleast just the slightest amount of common sense

Well even I thought it sounded to good to be true. So my common sense was functioning properly. However, since I heard nothing against it, why not try? Common sense also said no harm in trying.

So yeah, my common sense was functioning properly.



Anything else?

[MJFtheGenius]

=

[ssk13809]

I'll let the results speak for themselves

[MJFtheGenius]

if you did not win that rams over the chargers bet then it is a entire different ball game

[ssk13809]

if you did not win that rams over the chargers bet then it is a entire different ball game

Not really. I'd still be positive almost 10 %.



But what about the Bengals choking a 21-14 lead, 4th Q, 2 minutes, their ball in TB territory. If I had won that game, I would be up nearly 40 units. Or how about Saints just winning against the Browns at home? Too much to ask for? I'd be up 40 units there too. And btw, that's nearly 40%.

I've caught WAY more bad beats than good beats, and they have been WAY more costly too. So really, I have been unlucky so far.

[BetterBizness]

For MNF. I'm going to play safe.


Cowboys -195 ML
Risk 4.9 to win 2.5


I could put more, but I'll play it safe. They should win though. I expect blowout. But going to down to the wire is also a very good possibility, in which case anything can happen if we are with Dallas.


Add to this

Giants -3 2nd Half
Risk 6 to win 5

This is all fun and dandy... But I'd like to know what "6" is.. or 4.9? Are they units? Dollars??... I know this may not seem like it makes a difference... But saying "6" is very unclear...

Also it can slide, because of the edit but this should have been a separate message... Not an "Add on" ... and at 7:31 PST, minutes before half, most books were at least at 4, I even saw 5.5... I saw one book that wouldn't leave 3 but they were nearly -150.. .that is not 6:5... that's over 7:5... Where did you get this price?

Just saying, if you're going to play for "real" .. play for real...

[ssk13809]

This is all fun and dandy... But I'd like to know what "6" is.. or 4.9? Are they units? Dollars??... I know this may not seem like it makes a difference... But saying "6" is very unclear...

Also it can slide, because of the edit but this should have been a separate message... Not an "Add on" ... and at 7:31 PST, minutes before half, most books were at least at 4, I even saw 5.5... I saw one book that wouldn't leave 3 but they were nearly -150.. .that is not 6:5... that's over 7:5... Where did you get this price?

Just saying, if you're going to play for "real" .. play for real...

They are units. I explained some of this in my 1st post. I'm starting with 100 units. And whatever happens so happens. Also, I don't post right when I make the play. Halftime started, Romo looked doubtful, so I booked some action right away, and then later I came back and posted this. It's kind of hard to post everything right when it happens when you are betting halves. Besides, they will cover everything anyways.

But on a side-note, I never bet halves unless some injury that changes the whole game occurs. So you won't see this often.

[ScottLocke]

Good cappers also get the best lines, Cowboys -175 ML was widely available and was down to -165 at kickoff. Good cappers anticipate these things.

Also, 80-90% on your LOCK picks, GL. Won't happen, nobody's that good. Your 4 game sample size means nothing. Need at least 200 before you can start getting a realistic win-rate, and in that case you'd have to go to 160-40 to hit 80%, LOL if you think thats possible.

[ScottLocke]

One more thing, how can you "usually hit 80-90% on these types of plays" if its your first year betting.... hmmm, i guess pulling random numbers out your ass can be fun.

[ssk13809]

One more thing, how can you "usually hit 80-90% on these types of plays" if its your first year betting.... hmmm, i guess pulling random numbers out your ass can be fun.

I've already said I have bet before. You want me to pull out quotes from this very thread that say this? This is my 1st year full-on betting. But I said before, I have bet before, only MLs and ATS, about 50 or so plays.

Last year I went 7-0 on LOCK ATS picks (Posted on another forum, can give links to those plays).

So yeah...And remember, these LOCK plays start Post Week 4, when I get a real sense of each team.

[ScottLocke]

I've already said I have bet before. You want me to pull out quotes from this very thread that say this? This is my 1st year full-on betting. But I said before, I have bet before, only MLs and ATS, about 50 or so plays.

Last year I went 7-0 on LOCK ATS picks (Posted on another forum, can give links to those plays).

So yeah...And remember, these LOCK plays start Post Week 4, when I get a real sense of each team.

I guarantee you won't hit at least 70% the rest of the season taking at least 2 ATS picks per week. You can even use your 3-0-1 as a start. Should be a cake walk for you since you hit 80-90%.

[ssk13809]

I guarantee you won't hit at least 70% the rest of the season taking at least 2 ATS picks per week. You can even use your 3-0-1 as a start. Should be a cake walk for you since you hit 80-90%.

lol okay.


Anyways, Week 7 is over. I stay at where I was at the end of Sunday. I'm not even going to both updating my record since nothing really changed and both plays really were worthless and canceled each other out (Low ML play and Out of Ordinary ATS Play).




Looking to bounce back next week after a below average Week 7

[ScottLocke]

lol okay.


Anyways, Week 7 is over. I stay at where I was at the end of Sunday. I'm not even going to both updating my record since nothing really changed and both plays really were worthless and canceled each other out (Low ML play and Out of Ordinary ATS Play).




Looking to bounce back next week after a below average Week 7

So you wanna bet say 300 sbr points on that? I know I don't have them now, but i'll save them up til the end of the season.

[ssk13809]

So you wanna bet say 300 sbr points on that? I know I don't have them now, but i'll save them up til the end of the season.

Well I don't either. But Kroy basically owes me 300 points by the end of the season.


But that's too much. How about 100 SBR Points, since you said 70%, that I won't hit 70% ATS on plays posted in this thread (So 3-0 so far).


But the problem is these are highly selective plays. They will usually be 1-2/week, and sometimes 0 (though usually 1-2). So we are really talking with 10 weeks left, only 10-15 more plays for the year.

I can guarantee a minimum of 10 more plays. But I don't think you would want to take that bet considering I am already 3-0.

[ScottLocke]

Well I don't either. But Kroy basically owes me 300 points by the end of the season.


But that's too much. How about 100 SBR Points, since you said 70%, that I won't hit 70% ATS on plays posted in this thread (So 3-0 so far).


But the problem is these are highly selective plays. They will usually be 1-2/week, and sometimes 0 (though usually 1-2). So we are really talking with 10 weeks left, only 10-15 more plays for the year.

I can guarantee a minimum of 10 more plays. But I don't think you would want to take that bet considering I am already 3-0.

Well you said 80-90% you normally go, so with taking a few extra plays than normal and the 3-0 headstart 70% should still be easy for you. So 20 more plays, all you gotta do is go 13-7 in them which gives you 16-7 ATS. That actually only comes out to 69.5% but i'll even let you round up!

And actually, you can use the playoffs too, so 20 plays from here til the superbowl. You can do anything from 0 plays one week to all 20 if you please. And 300 points is like 15 dollar worth of points... not way too much i dont think.

[ssk13809]

Well you said 80-90% you normally go, so with taking a few extra plays than normal and the 3-0 headstart 70% should still be easy for you. So 20 more plays, all you gotta do is go 13-7 in them which gives you 16-7 ATS. That actually only comes out to 69.5% but i'll even let you round up!

And actually, you can use the playoffs too, so 20 plays from here til the superbowl. You can do anything from 0 plays one week to all 20 if you please. And 300 points is like 15 dollar worth of points... not way too much i dont think.

Well I meant too much comparatively speaking. I got 300 points on the contest with Kroy, this should be less.


But fine. 20+ plays all the way to the SuperBowl. For 200 points. I have to hit 70+% on my ATS plays on this thread. I'm 3-0 so far. Deal?

[ScottLocke]

Well I meant too much comparatively speaking. I got 300 points on the contest with Kroy, this should be less.


But fine. 20+ plays all the way to the SuperBowl. For 200 points. I have to hit 70+% on my ATS plays on this thread. I'm 3-0 so far. Deal?

agreed, deal. GL

[ssk13809]

agreed, deal. GL

My plan will be to not force any plays and only play my LOCKS or "near" LOCKS like I have been doing. And not look at how many ATS plays I've made.

But when playoffs start, I'll look at where I am compared to the 20, and make how many moves I need.


For the season, with 10-15 plays which is what I'm projecting, I'll probably go, 9-1, 10-2, 13-2, 12-1, something around those numbers, so I should be in good shape for the playoffs.

[ScottLocke]

My plan will be to not force any plays and only play my LOCKS or "near" LOCKS like I have been doing. And not look at how many ATS plays I've made.

But when playoffs start, I'll look at where I am compared to the 20, and make how many moves I need.


For the season, with 10-15 plays which is what I'm projecting, I'll probably go, 9-1, 10-2, 13-2, 12-1, something around those numbers, so I should be in good shape for the playoffs.

To be honest, I doubt you even go 60%(60% is still very very good) but if you manage 70% then I will admit I was wrong and will be very impressed as will everyone else I am sure.

[ssk13809]

To be honest, I doubt you even go 60%(60% is still very very good) but if you manage 70% then I will admit I was wrong and will be very impressed as will everyone else I am sure.

Not really. I'm being highly selective so of course I'm going to hit at a high rate. In fact, I'll be disappointed if I hit only 70% with my picks.

[BetterBizness]

lol okay.

Anyways, Week 7 is over. I stay at where I was at the end of Sunday. I'm not even going to both updating my record since nothing really changed and both plays really were worthless and canceled each other out (Low ML play and Out of Ordinary ATS Play).

For MNF. I'm going to play safe.


Cowboys -195 ML
Risk 4.9 to win 2.5

I could put more, but I'll play it safe. They should win though. I expect blowout. But going to down to the wire is also a very good possibility, in which case anything can happen if we are with Dallas.

Add to this

Giants -3 2nd Half
Risk 6 to win 5

Uhm... Hate to be the El Obviouso Capitano ....

But you missed BOTH plays... Giants Lost the Second Half 17-15, and Cows missed ML... You lose 10.9 "twizzlers" or whatever... That's over a 50% hit to your "bankroll" ... Now I wonder if all your other plays are even valid since you missed something so obvious... wow...

So not only are you 90% accuracy in your fictitious previous record, but you also can't even count your losses... Wow is this thread turning into a sheit show! Want to play "real" fake units... Learn to use your fingers AND your toes...

[ssk13809]

Wow my bad. I thought the game ended at 41-28. Didn't know Dallas scored again. Oh well thats what I get for chasing my losses.

Btw, thats about 1/12th of my bankroll. I started with a bankroll of 100 units remember.


I'll update everything

[BetterBizness]

Wow my bad. I thought the game ended at 41-28. Didn't know Dallas scored again. Oh well thats what I get for chasing my losses.

Btw, thats about 1/12th of my bankroll. I started with a bankroll of 100 units remember.


I'll update everything

Are you serious? You STOPPED watching the game with 3 minutes left up less than a TD... that's beyond words...

Clearly you are playing with Monopoly money, because anyone with a penny on the game knew the inevitable could happen...

It's pretty clear you don't bet any real money on your picks do you... This is just some big play money experiment...

[BetterBizness]

Btw, thats about 1/12th of my bankroll. I started with a bankroll of 100 units remember.

1/12 of BR or 50% of current twizzler profit in a game... guess its all in the way you it...