SSK's NFL ML Thread

[ssk13809]

Introduction:

We all want to make money off sports. Particularly here, the NFL. Well, if you want to win consistently in the long-run in the NFL, there is only 1 way. Money-Lines. No not ATS or Totals. You might do great short-term (like 70% me), but will struggle in the long-term.

But one thing I think you can consistently win is the Money-Lines. Why? Mainly, because there is a lot less luck involved, giving more consistent results. The problem with ATS and Totals is this: The team you bet on is not playing with the same goal as you. However, when you bet MLs, the team you bet on and you have the same goal, and that is to win.

None of that last minute giving up TD because the game wasn't on the line and you didn't play hard defense. That is the luck variance in ATS and Totals. Won't happen in MLs. This is why MLs are more consistent, and spreads are not.



Background:

1. Finish at least 90% in NFL Pick'Em every year. And picking winners straight-up like in Pick'Em is key for ML Gambling.

2. Strong Math background

3. Is a winner and looks for winners, so plays favorites more often





Expectations:


So I am here to share my picks with all of you. I will start myself out with 100 units. What do I expect?

At minimum, by the end of the year I should have 200 units. More probable expectation is 300-400 units. So in other words, $$$. So if you follow me play-for-play and unit-for-unit, you can expect great increases.




Record:

Here I keep track of my record. Now I know with MLs, record can be deceiving. So to make it fair I have sorted by the MLs I bet.

-1000+: 0-0
-(900-999): 0-0
-(800-899): 0-0
-(700-799): 0-0
-(600-699): 0-0
-(500-599): 0-0
-(400-499): 0-0
-(300-399): 0-0
-(200-299): 0-0
-(100-199): 0-0
+(100-199): 0-0
+(200-299): 0-0
+(300-399): 0-0
+(400-499): 0-0
+(500-599): 0-0
+(600-699): 0-0
+(700-799): 0-0
+(800-899): 0-0
+(900-999): 0-0
+(1000+): 0-0

Parlays Record: 0-0



Overall Units: 100.0 (0%)

I also will post all my plays here, and keep track of my units and record in the SBR spreadsheets (once I figure out how to use it).




The bottomline is this


MLs + NFL Expertise + Pick'Em Success + Strong Math Intuition = Deadly Combo for Long-Term Success.


After all, they don't call me the Money-Line-Machine for nothing. (MLM)

[ssk13809]

And a quick post to the side. In this post I will keep track of my ATS and Total bets. But mostly ATS. Just for fun since I don't trust them anymore. I said many times I need 4 weeks to get used to each team so I can properly analyze them. So it starts from Week 5.



ATS & Totals:


Week 5: 0-0





But this is not what the thread is about so I am not doing to discuss these in detail. Nor am I going to discuss ATS and Totals with others.

[ssk13809]

Now for the rest,


I'm going to let my picks do the talking

[Rod1010]

dude u suck and stop making up records

[ssk13809]

dude u suck and stop making up records

0-0 ML records are made-up? I didn't know in your universe you start with a record other than 0-0.

[Rod1010]

arent u like 1-7 ats vs kroy? lmao.

[ssk13809]

arent u like 1-7 ats vs kroy? lmao.

Discussing ATS in a ML thread? Though let me add, I'm beating your beloved Kroy in the H2H ATS Contest. (Pending Miami Loss).


I already have the response stored for you. Quote from above.

But this is not what the thread is about so I am not doing to discuss these in detail. Nor am I going to discuss ATS and Totals with others.

Read it 3-4 times before you understand the message.


If you have something else to say?

Now for the rest,


I'm going to let my picks do the talking

[Rod1010]

You just said your 0-0 Ats and totals.. lol !! and haha at ur 90% and 70 % Records dude. can we see proof mister 1-7?

[ssk13809]

You just said your 0-0 Ats and totals.. lol !! and haha at ur 90% and 70 % Records dude. can we see proof mister 1-7?

I'm beating your Kroy. You think he has done worse than 1-7? Might be time to check your facts. And that 70% claim wasn't this year.

ATS & Totals:


Week 5: 0-0


But this is not what the thread is about so I am not doing to discuss these in detail. Nor am I going to discuss ATS and Totals with others .

[Rod1010]

dude anyone on this site could pick the ML. nobody would lay all that money to play em tho. so fk off you cant cap sheettt.

[ssk13809]

dude anyone on this site could pick the ML. nobody would lay all that money to play em tho. so fk off you cant cap sheettt.

Spoken like a true rookie. 3 false statements in 3 sentences. Actually, these weren't just false statements, these were incredibly stupid statements.


You don't need anymore more money than you need in ATS to play ML, and thus if anyone can cap them why wouldn't they Kid, learn before you talk. I recommend google for starters.




People cap what they are good at. For me it's ML. I am starting with 100 Units. Someone else who caps ATS starts with 100 units. Money/Units are not an issue. You don't need more for ML than ATS than Totals. But I can guarantee I will make most increases on that 100 units than anyone else on SBR. Therefore, making me the best on SBR.

[Totolover1409]

Give this guy a chance now that he has his own thread. Let him do what he does and let kroy do what he does. Hope both win some money.

[MJFtheGenius]

Money lines?

All it takes is 1 losss and your buried

[ssk13809]

Money lines?

All it takes is 1 losss and your buried

If you bet the big risky ones. I never do. At least straight-up. Because after all, anything can happen in the NFL. So eventually you will get hit.

[MJFtheGenius]

SSK betting money lines is the wrong way tgo pal

I hope your not betting real money

[ssk13809]

SSK betting money lines is the wrong way tgo pal

I hope your not betting real money

How so?

I do well at predicting pure winners (pick'em leagues) and have a good mathematical intuition to help with the probabilities/expected values.

It's a lethal combination for MLs. I'm betting real money. Because I know I will win.

[MJFtheGenius]

leagues ?? lol

you said you would win last time

[ssk13809]

Week 1 Bets:


49ers -175 (Risk 10 Units to Win 5.7 units)
Titans +240 (Risk 4.2 units to win 10 units)


I'll probably have more later. But those are value plays.



ATS Plays:

Texans -3
49ers -3.5
Bengals -6.5

[PeePee]

GL with ya plays.

Now, let's the plays do the talk... then you will gain respect.

[MJFtheGenius]

GL with ya plays.

Now, let's the plays do the talk... then you will gain respect.

No this is stupid

it is never going to work he is going to get buried betting MLs

you can tell he is forcing a dog play here with the Titans

[MJFtheGenius]

I will continue to be a dick until this kid stops acting like hes Jimmmy The Greek

[ssk13809]

No this is stupid

it is never going to work he is going to get buried betting MLs

you can tell he is forcing a dog play here with the Titans

A lot of thought goes behind the plays.

Not at all. Based on my approximations, the Titans have a 35% chance of winning. Which is relatively higher than the +240 line implies. So I'm playing it. And why not? The Titans are a good borderline playoff team. What really have the Cowboys shown us this year? 1-2 is not so good, don't get too caught in the "Cowboy hype", and they have already lost to Chicago at home. I'm not saying Titans probably will win, but I'm saying they have a legit shot. Also, after their last loss at home, you know they are hungry for a win.


San Francisco? At home they are a very legit threat, even this year they almost beat NO at home. They are 0-4, but they KNOW they play in the NFC West. A division that still is very within reach for San Francisco. So they have the motivation. They showed that last week almost beating Atlanta on the road. Eagles have looked bad without Vick, and I'm assuming Vick doesn't play (he is doubtful). I'm very confident San Fran takes that game.

[ssk13809]

I will also have 1 Parlay per week. It will usually be a "Favorites Special". With all the teams consisting of favorites that I think will win for sure. I've hit it the last 2 weeks. Should find teams that will allow me to do so again.

What I like about these parlays is it allows me to bet on heavy favorites that I know will win for sure, without taking 1 huge risk because I have many of them. So though I never bet on heavy favorites straight-up, I love including them in parlays to make easy money without taking huge risks.

[MJFtheGenius]

I think you will go 0-2

[Full Time Hobo]

San Fran seems like a decent play with Philly a little banged up.
If your Titans pick is a "value play" than why are you putting so much on it?

Playing ML alone is risky in the NFL it doesn't matter how well you think you can pick a side and the "guarantees" generally have too much chalk to even bother with it.

Good luck. Wish you a profitable season.

[75_Percent]

You just said your 0-0 Ats and totals.. lol !! and haha at ur 90% and 70% Records dude. can we see proof mister 1-7?

90% SU (straight up) is hard to believe honestly. you said you pick winners? this year has been FULL of upsets and even in the past, it's tough any given week not to lose more than a couple on average IF you were playing all.

70% is very possible if you weigh your knowledge and use logic (although so far this year, there hasn't been much logic involved in these NFL games...coin flips so far, and the reason i haven't laid any money down yet on pros this year) money lines are great period, but better in college football on DOGS if you do your homework and discover those hidden gems. but ATS i have finished an entire year above 70% in the past on NFL betting every reg season game.

this is a great forum! i'm glad to be here!

I like your points comparing ML's to ATS though!

[ssk13809]

70% is very possible if you weigh your knowledge and use logic (although so far this year, there hasn't been much logic involved in these NFL games...coin flips so far, and the reason i haven't laid any money down yet on pros this year) money lines are great period, but better in college football on DOGS if you do your homework and discover those hidden gems. but ATS i have finished an entire year above 70% in the past on NFL betting every reg season game.

this is a great forum! i'm glad to be here!

I like your points comparing ML's to ATS though!

Yes exactly. Trying to hit 70% so far this has been tough. But it's still the 1st 4 weeks. And I have said many times that it takes 4 weeks to adjust to all the new teams completely. So hopefully things start becoming less unpredictable. I only hit 50% last year 1st 4 weeks and finished above 70. But even I'll admit it's hard to keep up a 70% rate over the long-run.





But yeah, those are some good points comparing MLs to ATSs though. At the end of the day, it comes down to is the team you are laying money on completely on your side or not?

[ssk13809]

Playing ML alone is risky in the NFL it doesn't matter how well you think you can pick a side and the "guarantees" generally have too much chalk to even bother with it.

Not unless you add them in a parlay. Then even if you lose one by a miracle, you still won't lose that much.

But usually the case is they just strengthen your parlay.

[jolmscheid]

Looking forward to see how you do ssk...

[jolmscheid]

Do you also do ML's on other sports too? NCAAF? NBA? MLB? NHL? Thanks

[ssk13809]

Do you also do ML's on other sports too? NCAAF? NBA? MLB? NHL? Thanks

I bet NFL and NBA. NBA is actually my strongest sport.

[EXhoosier10]

As a proven loser, I wish you a lot of luck trying your hand at moneylines.

[ssk13809]

As a proven loser, I wish you a lot of luck trying your hand at moneylines.

2-3 weeks consists as a proof of being good or bad at gambling?




Looks like we have a noob. Any pro, expert, experienced gambler, actually....ANY GAMBLER will tell you 2-3 weeks proves nothing. Kid you have a lot to learn.

[Shahbucks]

I do this in baseball. But I chase dogs +110 or better. Which in turn allows me to risk very little. Like today I picked Texas w Cliff Lee( bet 1.74 units to win 2). If I lost I would have bet on Minn to win 3.74 units but now I just have a bet to win 2 units on Minn.

I say this to say your risking too much on SF, not saying you can't win, but I'm afraid for people to tail you. ML guys know the value is in picking good dogs and STRONG favorites. What percentage of the time you think they will win? I have them winning less than 54% of the time. and since your such a math guy whats the break even percentage of SF at -170?

[ssk13809]

I do this in baseball. But I chase dogs +110 or better. Which in turn allows me to risk very little. Like today I picked Texas w Cliff Lee( bet 1.74 units to win 2). If I lost I would have bet on Minn to win 3.74 units but now I just have a bet to win 2 units on Minn.

I say this to say your risking too much on SF, not saying you can't win, but I'm afraid for people to tail you. ML guys know the value is in picking good dogs and STRONG favorites. What percentage of the time you think they will win? I have them winning less than 54% of the time. and since your such a math guy whats the break even percentage of SF at -170?

I have 49ers winning 70% of the time. They will be extremely motivated against a Vick-Less Eagle squad in San Fransisco.

The -170 implies 62%.