7 home dogs Week 3

[No coincidences]

You can't lose in the long with most of those plays. You just have to know when to get off a certain play by game time if things change.

I like them all myself.

I like to track the public, then compare it later in the week to how the line's moving. Then in the last 10 minutes or so before kickoff, I either validate or buck the pick depending on where the line's going and what kind of shape the team's lineups are in.

[$Burm$]

with vick named as starter now, im all over the jags

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

BOL with betting the dogs. I like a couple of them myself.

[mcbogo]

good thread.nice job guys!!!

[JR007]

"DOUBLE DIGIT SPREAD ABOUT TO BECOME VERY COMMON IN 2010 NFL ACTION
There was only one double digit pointspread last week in the NFL, when Green Bay was -13 at home against Buffalo. Green Bay won easily, making it certain that they'll be big favorites again at home...and Buffalo will be big underdogs again on the road.
This week there are three games that are in double digits in the early lines. Get used to seeing this. There's still a big difference between the have's and the have not's this year...which means handicappers will be dealing with high spreads on a regular basis for the foreseeable future.
THIS WEEK'S BIG SPREADS
New England (-13) vs. Buffalo
Baltimore (-10.5) vs. Cleveland
Minnesota (-10) vs. Detroit
Feels like last year, doesn't it? Buffalo, Cleveland, and Detroit were bad last year, and are a combined 0-6 straight up to start the new season. New England, Baltimore, and Minnesota were playoff teams last season.
You may not think three games with double digit spreads is a lot. Be aware that many of the other lines this week are hinting at big spreads in the future. Home field advantage is worth three points in the NFL. So, that means a spread would be six points different if a game was played at the opposing team's site. If you see a 5-point road favorite, that means they'd be -11 at home as a general rule.
Here's why I'm making that point.
ROAD FAVORITES THIS WEEK
Pittsburgh (-3) at Tampa Bay (even without Roethlisberger)
Cincinnati (-3.5) at Carolina
Washington (-3.5) at St. Louis
Philadelphia (-3) at Jacksonville
Indianapolis (-5) at Denver
San Diego (-5.5) at Seattle
Green Bay (-3) at Chicago
All of the 3-point favorites would be -9 at home, which is almost a double digit spread. All the 3.5-point favorites would be -9.5 at home. Indianapolis and San Diego would be laying double digits to Denver and Seattle respectively based on those prices.
In weeks where a lot of contenders are hosting have-nots, you're going to see a very high number of double digit spreads. Remember, a lot of the bad teams have been playing each other to start the season. That's not going to hold true all season.
You're most common "big ugly" underdogs are going to be:
St. Louis
Buffalo
Cleveland
Carolina
Detroit (until Matthews gets back)
Tampa Bay (though they may be improving)
This list might soon include
Oakland
Kansas City (soft schedule so far)
Arizona (quarterback problems)
Seattle (poor showing at Denver)
Jacksonville (visiting the very best teams)
That's about a third of the league. I don't need to list the regular suspects who will be high priced at home. It's the same teams as last year...and, in many cases, several years because the top quarterbacks have mostly learned how to stay healthy all season now.

You longtime readers know I specialize in underdogs. I was able to pick my spots well last year, and I'll do the same thing this season. I will continue to focus on these important keys:

• I want MOTIVATED underdogs. I'm not going to bet on anybody that doesn't believe themselves that they have a chance to win.
• I want to go against FLAT FAVORITES, because it's very hard to cover a big spread if you're flat off a big game last week, or looking ahead to a big game next week.
• I want an offense that can move the ball in garbage time, because they can either win me some money the right way, or by coming through the back door in the final minutes.
• I want a team of young players that's trying to improve so they can all stay in the league, rather than a veteran team that's just doing the bare minimum to cash their paychecks.

I'm ready for the challenge. I'm off to a winning start this season in pro football. That includes my NFL Shocker of the Month on Tampa Bay (+3) over Carolina 20-7 this past Sunday, and Monday's win with the 49'ers (+5.5) against the Saints. If you'd like to become a HIGH ROLLER like TONY SALINAS, sign up for my service online. You can get the exact same games I'm betting the biggest myself right here at the website.
If you have any questions about what's available, call the office at 1-888-536-8880. You probably won't get to talk to me directly because I spend so much time at Vegas sportsbooks. One of my representatives will be able to help you find the right package.
I'm very excited about how the 2010 season is shaping up. Underdogs are the proven way to get the money over time. The public always overbets favorites...and they're going to have a lot of big favorites to overbet this year. "

[Broken-Ear Glen]

JR007...where can we find your picks for each week?

[JR007]

Just stuff I post from other sources dude....made a oops! on this one

[JR007]

Just stuff I post from other sources dude....made a oops! on this one

[Irish Lumberjack]

Good find on that write up

[jjgold]

You cannot go wrong with home dogs in any sport

[k13]

home dogs are great, home dogs with no line movement are even better, home dogs with RLM yummy

[agharah1]

I like Minnesota to cover because nothing makes a QB feel 25 again like a game vs. the Lions secondary at home. Look what it did for Mike Vick. Won him the starting job and lots of preferential media coverage.

Bears at home on MNF with the confidence of a 2-0 team with 1st in the division on the line and Cutler seems to be adapting well to Martz's offense. I'll probably tease the Bears +3 with the over.

[JR007]

see what happens with the moneyline movement history throughout the week

[borednaz]

You almost had me ready to call JR lol.

[NardVa]

I like Tampa ML and Jags ML. Pitt and Philly are both playing back to back road games which is always tough to do in the NFL.

[jonmic]

I like tampa, they are bringing it this week

[smitch124]

Again I ask, what have the 9ers done on the road to make them a road fav

[JR007]

I count 8 divisional games....might want to take a close look at the inter conference games.....I am thinking that there might be more mismatches there.....spreads might be off...

[brooks85]

im liking jax

Garrard at Home is not the same as Garrard on the road.

[NardVa]

Again I ask, what have the 9ers done on the road to make them a road fav

The scary thing about San Fran is they outplayed Seattle and New Orleans and should be 2-0. Turnovers is the only reason they are 0-2.

[lakerboy]

You cannot go wrong with home dogs in any sport

This is the best way to make money in sports gambling on sides. Take home dogs and you will never lose money. Ask the guys who Faded the pirates tonight because they thought they had a better pitcher than charlie morton.

[jresse]

minnasota will definatly cover. good pick

[bogbat]

Do you have a good success rate with NFL coin? I don't know if it was a trend or not but I remember you being prime fade material for NBA around playoff time.

[HoofHearted]

JR...good write-up(up above). I generally take home dogs with the tease and win far more than losing. The only thing is when they win staight up and I kick myself for teasing, but cant complain when you are winning..tend to get a little greedy "I could of made more type of thing". Good luck with the dogs this weekend.

[phillybadboy]

Do you have a good success rate with NFL coin? I don't know if it was a trend or not but I remember you being prime fade material for NBA around playoff time.

sup dude you bet nfl too?

[JACK MATZ]

No coin. You are a handicapping workhorse. Thanks for your insight.
GL.

[bogbat]

sup dude you bet nfl too?

nah not really, being from Australia I don't even know all the rules lol. I've watched a few games now and I'm starting to get into it so I might soon.

[hitman2010]

Absolutely love the Bears +3 on MNF. Hopefully it goes up to 3.5 or 4

I like it too.

[No coincidences]

Do you have a good success rate with NFL coin? I don't know if it was a trend or not but I remember you being prime fade material for NBA around playoff time.

8-2-1 on posted plays the first two weeks.

So far, so good. Long season, though.

As for the NBA playoffs, I'm a big "under" guy and got kicked in the nuts by trying to stick to that trend around that time of year. It was an "odd" year for public cashing overs, but what can you do. Win some, lose some.

No coin. You are a handicapping workhorse. Thanks for your insight.
GL.

Don't just blindly tail here, though -- watch the line movement, and continue to check on who the public is backing. If RLM sets in, hammer the play. No guarantee, but it'll make you some nice coin long-term.

[madworld]

I'm sorry but at of all the home dogs this week, Seattle will not cover. Although they played great at home against a good 49ers team, they looked horrible against a good Broncos team. The only way Seattle covers is if the Chargers turn the ball over like they did last week, but I doubt that happens and the Chargers are one of my top picks for the week, and I usually stay away from public picks.

[BustedPretext]

Seattle is best home dog for Week 3

This. So much this.

I'm on the lions this week, however. They played good enough to win @ Chicago and played well late vs PHI with Hill in there. I think Detroit's awful road ATS history is inflating this line a bit and the game should play out closer. Add onto that Detroit's best player is well... Best; and they should try more than usual to control clock and expect Chilly to do the same thing with AP. It's very possible that they give Brett a chance to light up the scoreboard, but I just don't think he has it in him (or the weapons to do it) and this game ends up being decided as one of the first games to end and by a couple FGs.

[MadTiger]

Went 4-2 in Week 1 and 4-0-1 in Week 2 playing home dogs. No reason to stop now. In order of my favorite to least, here they are: Jacksonville +3 (85% of public bets at Squarebook on Philly so far)Tampa +3 (90% on Pittsburgh)

MadTiger Entertainment gave you guys Miami +6 and Detroit +5 last week.

Detroit was a heart attack, but prevailed.

We are on Tampa and Jacksonville spreads this week.

Phuck Filadelphia.
Puck Fittsburgh.

[JR007]

15 cent drop on the Bengals

[Sfritts8]

Mad Tiger Entertainment should learn how to get better lines as the Lions +7 was easily available last week.

[JR007]

20 cents on the Saints