7 home dogs Week 3

[No coincidences]

Went 4-2 in Week 1 and 4-0-1 in Week 2 playing home dogs. No reason to stop now.

In order of my favorite to least, here they are:

Jacksonville +3 (85% of public bets at Squarebook on Philly so far)
Denver +6 (88% on Indy)
Kansas City +3 (91% on SF)
Carolina +3.5 (79% on Cincy)
Tampa +3 (90% on Pittsburgh)
St. Louis +4 (97% on Washington)
Chicago +3 (94% on Green Bay)

Public's following the same loser trends, so I'll continue to ride this contrarian train until if officially derails.

I also love fading a big public dog. Squares love Detroit +10.5 (78%). Minnesota will cover.

[RANDAZZO]

Good luck

[uanl]

There you are No Coin, was waiting for this thread from you...initial leans in order from strongest to weakest out of these 7 ..

Chicago +3
Bucs +3
Denver +6
Jax +3
KC +3
Rams +4
Caronlina +3.5 (really dont like this pick at all..)


thoughts??

[No coincidences]

There you are No Coin, was waiting for this thread from you...initial leans in order from strongest to weakest out of these 7 ..

Chicago +3
Bucs +3
Denver +6
Jax +3
KC +3
Rams +4
Caronlina +3.5 (really dont like this pick at all..)


thoughts??

Something's telling me to stay away from the Bears.

As odd as it sounds, I'd like them much better in this spot if they were 1-1 or even 0-2.

[The General]

Nice job so far. don't pick to many games, though.

GL, SIR

[uanl]

Something's telling me to stay away from the Bears.

As odd as it sounds, I'd like them much better in this spot if they were 1-1 or even 0-2.

hmm really interesting...im just thinking everyone is in love with the packers, a lot of people are already putting them in the superbowl, they just came off a blowout win (against the bills lol) and the fans thinking about the bears and how they are lucky to be 2-0 becaues of that lions game ending call that everyone saw...add the fact that its monday night..@ chicago... i say its up there as one of the strongest plays this week..i really love the bears and bucs this weekend..its a real dropoff for me from those 2 to my 3rd best game from that list.. imo..but i do see myself playing the jags and broncos however, just smaller than im thinking bucs and bears..

[ssk13809]

Seattle is best home dog for Week 3

[No coincidences]

Seattle is best home dog for Week 3

Oops, didn't even see that one -- add it to the list! And sure enough, 67% are on the Chargers so far....

Seattle +5.5

[uanl]

Oops, didn't even see that one -- add it to the list! And sure enough, 67% are on the Chargers so far....

Seattle +5.5

wow 8 home dogs lol i had forgot about seattle...i personally dont think its a strong play..on monday night the chargers didnt have too much trouble with KC's crowd noise, it was mostly the weather...if the weather is good in seattle, i think the chargers could handle the noise, will they cover? tough to say, but i dont think its worth the risk...

[ssk13809]

Oops, didn't even see that one -- add it to the list! And sure enough, 67% are on the Chargers so far....

Seattle +5.5

Where do you see how the public is betting? And why do you care? Just trying to predict line movement? I'm just asking for information, since I never really care how the public bets.

[uanl]

Where do you see how the public is betting? And why do you care? Just trying to predict line movement? I'm just asking for information, since I never really care how the public bets.

http://www.twominutewarning.com/bettracker.htm

its no secret that in the long term the general public loses more than it wins...so seeing the percentages + examining the line movement in such games is a great tool to add to your personal handicapping.. its not always a great idea to just blindly bet the opposite of the public, its always important to handicap and try to figure out what vegas is trying to do

[Mr Windy City]

Something's telling me to stay away from the Bears.

As odd as it sounds, I'd like them much better in this spot if they were 1-1 or even 0-2.

You gotta take the Bears.

1. Public is on the Packers hard, all the losers will be chasing come Monday Night and it will all be on the pack. Moneyline, game line, teased, pared, you name it they will be on it.

2. Yours truly will be in the end zone drunk as can be with a JJ Gold 3:16 sign Im 18-2 lifetime when I go to Soldier Field.

[Saluki09]

Absolutely love the Bears +3 on MNF. Hopefully it goes up to 3.5 or 4

[Mr Windy City]

Absolutely love the Bears +3 on MNF. Hopefully it goes up to 3.5 or 4

Doubt it. Maybe some square books like bodog or sportsinteraction will move to 3.5, but most las vegas shops will stay put at 3 is my guess.

[Goat Milk]

windy city you don't have concerns about cutler performing on the big stage? Guy throws picks left and right when he plays night games on national tv. vegas can't do anythign about that

[dbnmln]

Absolutely love the Bears +3 on MNF. Hopefully it goes up to 3.5 or 4

Would have to second this one out of the list of picks. Chicago's D played awesome last Sunday and their offense was spread around which makes for a long day for the other team.

[szk1983]

good luck with all your picks!

[melia26]

The line will definitely going up at my book. The public has cartoon hearts in their eyes for the Packers. I love this spot as I much as I loved the 49ers yesterday. The Saints ml was frozen at work yet the 49ers ml came down. Went up to +6 for 5 minutes. I was dying to bet! Hester is looking insane, my coworker has unnatural obsession with Dan LeFevour and is outraged he was waived, and with yet another MNF home dog, I'm going with the Bears for sure.

[Mr Windy City]

windy city you don't have concerns about cutler performing on the big stage? Guy throws picks left and right when he plays night games on national tv. vegas can't do anythign about that

Nope. This is a different year. Different system, and different mind state. You can see after these two games, that Midway Jay is getting settled in with the new Martz system. My guess is we will see more of the 3 and 5 step drops from Jay so he can get passes out quicker and avoid the rush, like he did against the Cowboys.

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/story/13990607/power-rankings-critics-have-to-lay-off-cutler-now

[tblues2005]

You have some very good valid points here. I do like some of your picks no doubt. I love the Jags and Bears as home dogs that could win the game also.

[vle909]

i dont know where you get the percentage from but those number seems to be wayyyy off..no way 97% of the public are on one team.

[Mr Windy City]

i dont know where you get the percentage from but those number seems to be wayyyy off..no way 97% of the public are on one team.

It's Wednesday morning vle909. That's all early money. It will even out as the week progresses. It more like 85% I think.

[cornast]

I have to think about....
it seems profitable..........

[gshock1]

Bears +3 is the best play

[k13]

You can't lose in the long with most of those plays. You just have to know when to get off a certain play by game time if things change.

I like them all myself.

[KingKolzig]

Colts will cover this one, champ bailey is probably out. Manning will be hosting a scrimmage. Colts 30-17

[Saintsfan1]

I also love fading a big public dog. Squares love Detroit +10.5 (78%). Minnesota will cover.




I love Minnesota this week.

[james4512]

Absolutely love the Bears +3 on MNF. Hopefully it goes up to 3.5 or 4

it wont move just for the fact its a monday night game. They have to keep a neutral line so the action keeps coming in, when you add the .5 you lose a lot of action

[JR007]

I don't know about KC...almost think Frisco is going to wax them

[CMangano]

Always love me some home underdogs.

[CMangano]

I don't know about KC...almost think Frisco is going to wax them

I think people are taking too much from that Saints game. The niners were at home after a terrible week one loss, you knew they were gonna come out blazing. Yet in the end they killed themselves and lost a winnable game. Why should I think a team that got thrashed in Seattle and blew a winnable game at home the next week can go to KC and wax them?

[hubie69]

I'm not huge on either GB or Chi. It's so tough to bet against a home dog, especially on MNF. chicago is playing pretty good but GB has been huge ATS last season and is 2-0 this season. I think I would lean slightly towards GB in this game but there's no way you can put action on this. This could change by the time monday gets here though.

[Saluki09]

it wont move just for the fact its a monday night game. They have to keep a neutral line so the action keeps coming in, when you add the .5 you lose a lot of action

Bodog for the most part gives you good value on the underdogs. I like my chances at getting it at 3.5

[JR007]

Two Words: Mike Singletary

[CMangano]

That only makes me like KC more.