LB thread for NFL plays 2010-2011

[sharper2]

i'm on 45.5 and i don't feel comfortable, manning during the night tends to go crazy

[djpremier36]

Missed FG goal could be huge

[$Burm$]

no way this game will stay under with the tempo that the colts are playing at, its impossible

[djpremier36]

Missed FG goal could be huge

3 times

[ManBearPig]

9 pts off the board...could be the over right there.

[Ace_of_Spades]

under 22.5?

[Coochiemudlo]

under 22.5?

Lets hope so

[j_dunn2]

Colts PK 2H? seems free to me...

[gshock1]

no way this game will stay under with the tempo that the colts are playing at, its impossible

Agreed. Brace yourself for a shootout

[BookieOweMe]

Colts PK 2H? seems free to me...

Took it too, but not looking good so far.

[BookieOweMe]

This just isnt our bet. So many turnovers..

[j_dunn2]

its so crazy. but then again it is the Colts..

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

Whos on the Colts in here

I'm neutral, just want to see a good game.

[thefonzo]

On the Colts 2x with Paco. On the under with LB.

Also made 2 prop bets: Torain Over 73.5 Yards , and Torain +9.5 yards VS. Jones-Drew

[phillybadboy]

On the Colts 2x with Paco. On the under with LB. Also made 2 prop bets: Torain Over 73.5 Yards , and Torain +9.5 yards VS. Jones-Drew

nice

[lakerboy]

That sums it up. I fade the skins and take the under and fade the pinny team total over juiced play.

[broadway6]

really like Redskins TT o 20.5 -110

of course it wins... but did i play it FUQK NO... I LOSE THE UNDER !!!!!!!

[lakerboy]

now watch the skins win .

[broadway6]

ball game

[JR007]

"SQUARES HAVING AWFUL NFL SEASON
BECAUSE OF UNDERDOG COVERS
There were concerns out here in Nevada this year that squares (the general public) were getting too sharp. They were fixing many of their leaks. They were exploiting access to information created by the internet. They weren't blindly taking the wrong teams at bad prices the way they used to.
Well, the NFL results we've seen so far this year suggest that squares still have a ways to go before they match the sharps (professional wagerers).
2010 HAS BEEN BRUTAL FOR SQUARES!
You probably know that pro underdogs have been on a very consistent run so far this season. Squares bet favorites. They may be a little smarter about how they do it than several years ago. But, underdog covers won't cash favorite tickets no matter how smart the better thinks they are. Going 1-2 instead of 2-5 is still losing money, even if it's a more disciplined loss. Laying 8 points instead of 10 points is still too much if the 'right' line was only -6. And, especially this year, betting on overrated high profile teams just isn't going to work!
Squares won't truly be sharp in the NFL until:
*They bet more underdogs than favorites. This still seems like it's a long way off. It's a mental thing. Squares want to invest in the 'superior' team because they think it provides more insurance. Either they'll win a blowout, or they'll find a way to get there in the fourth quarter. Squares hate betting underdogs because they figure...their team will either get blown out, or find a way to lose in the fourth quarter.
What's more fun, thinking you'll have a chance to get there the whole game? Or, spending the afternoon or evening dreading that your team is going to blow it? Until squares adjust this mindset, they really have no chance to earn a profit. They may lose less as they get better informed. They're not going to WIN until they play more underdogs.
*They learn how to make their own quality numbers so they can determine value. If you're going to play a favorite (favorites do cover about half the time after all), you should play the RIGHT favorites. Don't lay 8 when the spread should be 6. Don't lay double digits unless you have very good reasons to believe the favorite is breathing fire. Don't lay 3 if the game is a true pick-em.
I personally do play some favorites for my customers. I'm not 100% underdogs by any means. But the favorites I play have value. I can make a case for them based on on-the-field handicapping information (I am a multi-time contest winner after all), and on my read of sharp action. I'm laying 3 when the spread should be 4-5. I'm laying around a TD when blowout indicators are in place. Most important, I'm playing only a few favorites when squares tend to fire away at as many favorites as they can.
*They learn WHEN to bet for value, and when to buy back to shoot a middle. I talk about this a lot in my weekly articles about what the sharps think in the NFL. Buy low, sell high, cash all tickets when the game lands between your purchase points. It's a simple fundamental, but one that squares never even bother with because they wait until game day to place their Las Vegas bets.
It may not seem that a lot of games land on the number. But, more than enough do to make this a profitable approach. And, even if you don't shoot middles. Betting earlier at better numbers is going to pay off a few times a year. The margin of error is so thin for most of you reading this that those few times can be the difference between loss and profit...or big loss and little loss.
So, if you've been kicking your TV sets on Sundays and Mondays this year in the NFL, you've still got some work to do in sharpening up your game:
*Play more dogs
*Play only favorites where line value is obvious from your handicapping
*Play earlier in the week so you're getting the best of line value."

[canepole]

good info thanks

[lakerboy]

Jags ML +135 (2x)

Under 44.5 -110 (1x)

[gshock1]

"SQUARES HAVING AWFUL NFL SEASON
BECAUSE OF UNDERDOG COVERS
There were concerns out here in Nevada this year that squares (the general public) were getting too sharp. They were fixing many of their leaks. They were exploiting access to information created by the internet. They weren't blindly taking the wrong teams at bad prices the way they used to.
Well, the NFL results we've seen so far this year suggest that squares still have a ways to go before they match the sharps (professional wagerers).
2010 HAS BEEN BRUTAL FOR SQUARES!
You probably know that pro underdogs have been on a very consistent run so far this season. Squares bet favorites. They may be a little smarter about how they do it than several years ago. But, underdog covers won't cash favorite tickets no matter how smart the better thinks they are. Going 1-2 instead of 2-5 is still losing money, even if it's a more disciplined loss. Laying 8 points instead of 10 points is still too much if the 'right' line was only -6. And, especially this year, betting on overrated high profile teams just isn't going to work!
Squares won't truly be sharp in the NFL until:
*They bet more underdogs than favorites. This still seems like it's a long way off. It's a mental thing. Squares want to invest in the 'superior' team because they think it provides more insurance. Either they'll win a blowout, or they'll find a way to get there in the fourth quarter. Squares hate betting underdogs because they figure...their team will either get blown out, or find a way to lose in the fourth quarter.
What's more fun, thinking you'll have a chance to get there the whole game? Or, spending the afternoon or evening dreading that your team is going to blow it? Until squares adjust this mindset, they really have no chance to earn a profit. They may lose less as they get better informed. They're not going to WIN until they play more underdogs.
*They learn how to make their own quality numbers so they can determine value. If you're going to play a favorite (favorites do cover about half the time after all), you should play the RIGHT favorites. Don't lay 8 when the spread should be 6. Don't lay double digits unless you have very good reasons to believe the favorite is breathing fire. Don't lay 3 if the game is a true pick-em.
I personally do play some favorites for my customers. I'm not 100% underdogs by any means. But the favorites I play have value. I can make a case for them based on on-the-field handicapping information (I am a multi-time contest winner after all), and on my read of sharp action. I'm laying 3 when the spread should be 4-5. I'm laying around a TD when blowout indicators are in place. Most important, I'm playing only a few favorites when squares tend to fire away at as many favorites as they can.
*They learn WHEN to bet for value, and when to buy back to shoot a middle. I talk about this a lot in my weekly articles about what the sharps think in the NFL. Buy low, sell high, cash all tickets when the game lands between your purchase points. It's a simple fundamental, but one that squares never even bother with because they wait until game day to place their Las Vegas bets.
It may not seem that a lot of games land on the number. But, more than enough do to make this a profitable approach. And, even if you don't shoot middles. Betting earlier at better numbers is going to pay off a few times a year. The margin of error is so thin for most of you reading this that those few times can be the difference between loss and profit...or big loss and little loss.
So, if you've been kicking your TV sets on Sundays and Mondays this year in the NFL, you've still got some work to do in sharpening up your game:
*Play more dogs
*Play only favorites where line value is obvious from your handicapping
*Play earlier in the week so you're getting the best of line value."

Excellent post.

[sportfan]

Jags ML +135 (2x)

Under 44.5 -110 (1x)

If you don't mind , any reason for the under LB?

[BigDofBA]

I have the Titan's +4 to complete a five team teaser but I went ahead and wagered half of that possible profit on the Jags +3.

I really like the Jags chances tonight at home.

I hope they kick a game winning FG so I win both bets! I also like the under in this game.

[Shifty107]

Jags ML +135 (2x)

Under 44.5 -110 (1x)

Love that under LB.

Divisianal rivalry. Great rush defence for both teams to go along with the fact that both teams lean heavily on their rush attack means small yardage gains for long ticks of the clock. Plus many people will be on the over here.

GL mate. I reckon you go 2-0 tonight.

[Tommy_de1st]

Jags ML +135 (2x) Under 44.5 -110 (1x)

Are you playing against the public LB? First you liked Titans

[paco]

Change of heart?

[Rod1010]

Bookies arent doing to well this week 6-6 against the public. Public dosent always lose.

[colout]

Good luck to night LB

[perceptible]

Jags ML +135 (2x)

Under 44.5 -110 (1x)

Jags ML + 135 - Excellent bet. Taking advantage of payout odds on 50-50 game.
Under 44.5 - 110 purely action bet. GL

[lakerboy]

Are you playing against the public LB? First you liked Titans

NO just doing what i like to do and thats getting better odds than pinny has.

Change of heart?

NO.

[Rod1010]

brandon lang is on jags lmao

[udlock4life]

bol tonight

[JR007]

Good luck tonight all