LB thread for NFL plays 2010-2011

[borednaz]

I started new to sports betting in week 15 of MLB. I ran $100 to 1.3k and lost it all by week 17. I reloaded and took a bath in the NFL. I've been a huge square in the first two weeks with favorites and parlays. Like all squares I just kept trying to hit bingo on a parlay to win me a real BR. I owe alot to this forum in showing me why I was being dumb. All I can say in my defence was I was completely new.

It's time to reload and rebuild . I actually would of not had to reload at all if I had stayed away from parlays, which I hope serves as words of wisdom for anyone else green here. I actually would of won with a few square plays if I had just left it as straight bets and it would of kept myself on a slightly even keel.

[A's Fan]

any picks for this week?

[JR007]

Hard enough to win one game ....good move

[kmarinouofm]

LB tell me you are on A&M +3 ( i paid for +3.5 )

[JR007]

just to give you guys a heads up on those newsletters...so far collectively their records suck...tread lightly

[JR007]

Let's see how the sharps have been placing bets, or biding their time, in this week's NFL action. As always, games are presented in rotation order. Note that we have the first byes of the season this week (Dallas, Kansas City, Minnesota, Tampa Bay), so there are two fewer games on the card than we've had in prior weeks.
DENVER AT TENNESSEE: Early action here has been on the total, with an opener of 41½ moving up to 43. Denver threw 57 passes last week in a loss to Indianapolis. Sharps tend to bet Overs with teams who establish they're going to pass THAT much. Even though Indy/Denver stayed Under the total, it took some badly timed luck to make that happen. Sharps, to this point, are more interested in the Over here than either team. Tennessee opened 6½ and hasn't budged. To me, that suggests sentiment on the underdog. If the sharps liked Tennessee they surely would have jumped in below the key number of 7. The fact that they didn't suggests they're hoping the public drives the line higher so they can take the dog, Denver, at +7.
BALTIMORE AT PITTSBURGH: Strong early action on the Under here, with an opener of 36½ falling down to 34½. Pittsburgh spiked Under bets last week vs. Tampa Bay with some big passes from Charlie Batch. The totals guys don't think that will happen two weeks in a row. Plus, they remember how scoring Pittsburgh/Atlanta, Pittsburgh/Tennessee, Baltimore/NYJ, and Baltimore Cincinnati were. Support stopped once the number dipped below 35. Not much interest on the side yet. If Pittsburgh stays at -1½ through the weekend, teaser players will be moving Baltimore up past the 3 and the 7 in two-teamers.
CINCINNATI AT CLEVELAND: Dog and Under money at the openers have knocked Cincinnati -3½ and 38½ down to Cincinnati -3 and 37½. Carson Palmer has looked pretty horrible outside of garbage time against the soft New England defense. Sharps want to squeeze out any value they can find by asking that to continue.
DETROIT AT GREEN BAY: This game and the next both have lines near -14. Sharps will typically handle these games in the same way. They'll get in early on the favorite to take a position for a side or middle, then they'll come back on the dog once the public has hit the favorite over the weekend. If sharps like the dog, they'll make those second bets bigger than the first. If they don't have an opinion, they'll just hope for a middle. If they liked the favorite (rare, but it happens sometimes), they'll just keep that early position at the lower number knowing that they beat the closer.
CAROLINA AT NEW ORLEANS: The total here has fallen from 46½ down to 44, with Carolina's defense getting respect but the offense ranking as one of the worst in the league. A move of 2½ points is large...but the value may be gone now that the total has settled right at 44. It's not like there will be weather news that changes anyone's opinion in this dome game.
SAN FRANCISCO AT ATLANTA: I think this will be a game where sharps will like San Francisco at +7, but the public will like Atlanta at -6½. So, each store will price based on its clientele and how they want to be positioned on the game. The total is up to 42½ from an opener or 44½ based on the productivity Atlanta's offense has shown the last two weeks.
SEATTLE AT ST. LOUIS: A lot of totals moves this week, with this opener of 38 shooting up to 40. Sam Bradford has impressed some sharps, and they'd rather express that with a totals bet than a team side bet on the Rams. How can you ask St. Louis to win two weeks in a row? To this point, the majority of action has been on totals. That tells me sharps are focusing mostly on dogs...but they're waiting to see if they can pick up some value after the public money hits over the weekend.
NY JETS AT BUFFALO: Not much interest in this one. We've seen some dead spots this year when games are priced right at 5. There's not a critical number in play, and the basic strategy teaser window isn't an issue either. Sharps didn't hit the Jets at -5, suggesting they're thinking about Buffalo and hoping for +6 or better. Tough schedule spot for the Jets as a second straight road game, and third straight divisional game. The total has dropped a tick from 36½ down to 36.
INDIANAPOLIS AT JACKSONVILLE: No action here, with an opener of Indy -7 and 46 holding firm. Sharps don't like laying this kind of price on the road. Jacksonville has looked so bad the last two weeks that it's hard to have any enthusiasm for them. The public tends to bet on Peyton Manning, so we may see sharp dog money come in at +7½ or higher if the money moves the number.
HOUSTON AT OAKLAND: Dog and Under support again here. Houston opened at -4 and 44, but we're now seeing Houston -3 and 43. You regulars know sharps typically shade toward dog and Under. If they bet early, it's because they figure the public isn't going to get very involved in the game. This isn't a big TV matchup or anything, so Wise Guys stepped in early and took more than a field goal while they could.
ARIZONA AT SAN DIEGO: San Diego's been at -8 all week, which is right in the teaser window. Maybe stores aren't worried about San Diego in teasers because of the soft defense. Or, there are so few qualifiers this week that it's not going to matter. Sportsbooks will be dealing with a lot of Baltimore-San Diego teaser combo's Sunday if the lines don't move. Hard to bet on either team at this price given Arizona's blowout loss at Atlanta, but San Diego's shaky form. The total is stuck on 46.
WASHINGTON AT PHILADELPHIA: This is the game everyone's waiting for, with Donovan McNabb returning to Philadelphia for the first time. Sharps took an early stab at Washington +6½ because they figured public sentiment would be on McNabb rather than Michael Vick. That moved the line down to +5½. Some thought sharps might wait to see if they could get a +7. But...too many sharps didn't trust other sharps to wait! The total is up to 42½ from an opener of 41 on the thought that both quarterbacks will have something to prove.
CHICAGO AT NY GIANTS: The Giants opened at -3, and jumped right to -4. Considering Chicago WON this past Monday Night, that's quite something. Clearly sharps are looking for a letdown in the short week for the Bears. This is what I mean about what happens when sharps like a favorite. They bet QUICK! If you're seeing NFL games where the line isn't moving toward the favorite right away, then they're looking at the dog and waiting for square action to drive the line up. The total is up to 44 from 42½. The Old Meadowlands used to get Under money. I'm interested to see what happens this year in the new stadium.
NEW ENGLAND AT MIAMI: Not much going on yet, with an opener of pick-em and 46½. We're not near a critical number. And, you can't shoot a middle at a zero because it's very rare to have a regular season tie. My take is that the sharps see it as a toss-up, and they'll fade the public if the public moves the line in one direction or the other figuring it's a free point or two. You know, it's a HUGE weekend in football...and the public may not get around to even thinking about this one until Monday afternoon.

[m3xtreme]

great thread

[JR007]

Something that I have just been reading

.
Lines are formulaic, based on past
scores, adjustment for expected wagering
trends by bettors, and then actual money that
comes into the game pool. Making a line is one
of the easiest jobs in the world, because after 50

years of doing it, only 6.5% of games land right

on the number (or a half-point away). You’d think
they’d fire the guys who make lines if they
couldn’t do any better than that after 50 years,

but that’s not how the game works

[Wilforth]

Something that I have just been reading

.
Lines are formulaic, based on past
scores, adjustment for expected wagering
trends by bettors, and then actual money that
comes into the game pool. Making a line is one
of the easiest jobs in the world, because after 50

years of doing it, only 6.5% of games land right

on the number (or a half-point away). You’d think
they’d fire the guys who make lines if they
couldn’t do any better than that after 50 years,

but that’s not how the game works

[JR007]

while 17.8% of all
NFL games have landed less than a field goal
from the spread over the last 17-plus seasons,
as many (17.9%) have landed 18 points or more
away from the spread. Also, 24.6% of NFL
games have landed from 10 to 15.5 points away
from the spread, all relatively cosy two-score
cushions.

[JR007]

Margin vs. SpreadGame CountFrequency
push, .54226.1%
1, 1.53344.8%
2, 2.53284.7%
3, 3.53695.3%
4, 4.53665.3%
5, 5.53314.8%
6, 6.53294.8%
7, 7.53104.5%
8, 8.52954.3%
9, 9.53004.3%
10, 10.52854.1%
11, 11.52603.8%
12, 12.52323.4%
13 13.52393.5%
14, 14.52653.8%
15, 15.52213.2%
16,16.51672.4%
17, 17.52022.9%
18, 18.51602.3%
19, 19.51502.2%
20, 20.51472.1%
21, 21.51372.0%
22 and up1,05815.3%
TOTAL6,907…

Slightly more games land from 15 to 21 points away from the spread than games that land from a push up to 2.5 points away from the spread. Should it really be surprising that the pointspread group with the highest percentage of results (6.1%) is push to 1/2-point? After all, oddsmakers have been making football lines for about 60 years now. Is that the best they can do after all these years, make lines that match the game result 6 times out of 100?

Yes, it is, because lines are merely based on past scores, and slight adjustments for anticipation of customer tendencies. They are not based on any real superior knowledge the linemaker or sportsbook has over the average bettor. --

[Pick'nParlays]

nice info JR

[Pick'nParlays]

Cant wait to see LB's plays

[DJStroke]

yeah i'm anxious

[JR007]

nice info JR

Thanks...want to see everyone win.....

[JR007]

"Straight bettors never curse the 4-1 days – when they pick more winners than losers – because they make a profit every time, while parlay bettors don’t. There’s a reason that every sportsbook in Las Vegas has their parlay cards prominently displayed – frankly, parlays pay the bills at most joints here in town."

[JR007]

"the pro’s concentrate much more on backing the ‘good but not great’ type of squads, teams that have fallen underneath the public’s collective radar, as well as fading some of the mediocre type squads that are in poor current form. The pros bet against Top 25 clubs far more often than they back ‘em – that’s where the value is, catching six points with an underdog that should only be getting four. "

[paciophobia]

seems like a jr thread now rather than an lb thread lol. any plays lb?

[DJStroke]

"Straight bettors never curse the 4-1 days – when they pick more winners than losers – because they make a profit every time, while parlay bettors don’t. There’s a reason that every sportsbook in Las Vegas has their parlay cards prominently displayed – frankly, parlays pay the bills at most joints here in town."

truth but it feels so damn good to hit a big one

[hitman2010]

nice infor, keep it up and best of luck

[JR007]

seems like a jr thread now rather than an lb thread lol. any plays lb?

Just trying to help...especially the new guys...I asked LB about this before and he OK'd it......I will not post it again

[SEAHAWKHARRY]

What up lb long time no post for me how you doin?

[r8rrich12]

Appreciate the insight JR

[mlb]

When you think you gonna make your plays?

[lakerboy]

Just trying to help...especially the new guys...I asked LB about this before and he OK'd it......I will not post it again

keep positng JR. no worries on my end. can never have enough info on gambling and different angles.

[sharper2]

lb how does the broncos over sound? I kinda like it, what're your leans?

[JVP3122]

Just trying to help...especially the new guys...I asked LB about this before and he OK'd it......I will not post it again

JR, I'm just learning this racket. I appreciate the info.

[azplaya]

Great info JR especially for a noob like me

[lakerboy]

lb how does the broncos over sound? I kinda like it, what're your leans?

there was quite a bit of movement on that over early on but now its 43.5. i have no plays right now but i like the seahawks.

[azplaya]

Something that I have just been reading

.
Lines are formulaic, based on past
scores, adjustment for expected wagering
trends by bettors, and then actual money that
comes into the game pool. Making a line is one
of the easiest jobs in the world, because after 50

years of doing it, only 6.5% of games land right

on the number (or a half-point away). You’d think
they’d fire the guys who make lines if they
couldn’t do any better than that after 50 years,

but that’s not how the game works

So a quick question about this. My understanding is that one of the reasons we like to fade the public is because the Vergas line is sharp, so when the public love of a certain team drives that line away from the Vegas opener, then there is value in going against the public. So if the Vegas line is so far off why is fading the public so profitable?

[sharper2]

there was quite a bit of movement on that over early on but now its 43.5. i have no plays right now but i like the seahawks.

yup I saw it got pounded til 44 at some places but then back down to 43.5 but don't books hate going from 40 to over 43? we'll see though, mcdaniels can be a fuvking idiot sometimes. also liking the eagles over but washington to cover

[Zzapper]

JR great analysis!

[superjeff24]

nice read JR. as a new to nfl bettor i love the input

[JosephPavs]

Margin vs. SpreadGame CountFrequency push, .54226.1% 1, 1.53344.8% 2, 2.53284.7% 3, 3.53695.3% 4, 4.53665.3% 5, 5.53314.8% 6, 6.53294.8% 7, 7.53104.5% 8, 8.52954.3% 9, 9.53004.3% 10, 10.52854.1% 11, 11.52603.8% 12, 12.52323.4% 13 13.52393.5% 14, 14.52653.8% 15, 15.52213.2% 16,16.51672.4% 17, 17.52022.9% 18, 18.51602.3% 19, 19.51502.2% 20, 20.51472.1% 21, 21.51372.0% 22 and up1,05815.3% TOTAL6,907… Slightly more games land from 15 to 21 points away from the spread than games that land from a push up to 2.5 points away from the spread. Should it really be surprising that the pointspread group with the highest percentage of results (6.1%) is push to 1/2-point? After all, oddsmakers have been making football lines for about 60 years now. Is that the best they can do after all these years, make lines that match the game result 6 times out of 100? Yes, it is, because lines are merely based on past scores, and slight adjustments for anticipation of customer tendencies. They are not based on any real superior knowledge the linemaker or sportsbook has over the average bettor. --

This is good if we could only take this information and manipulate it back over the past 5 years and see the top 10 teams that the books over rank

[lakerboy]

Seahawks ML -125 (5x)

I really like this play. The rams got there win last week. Carroll has the boys pumped up and ready to go. OF course if Stephen Jackson doesnt play it will be even better.The seahawks should be able to put up just enough points here to come away with the win. THe line has also started moving back in the hawks direction and im pretty sure they might even close at -2.5 -3. I wont take the psread cause for the extra 15 cents i can save myself the aggravation.