RLM

[GGPLAYER]

Marshall no RLM
Kansas no RLM
South Florida couldn't sustain any drives and kept turning it over; maybe DD dogs aren't the best for RLM? Just wondering. Seldom seen a team with so little punch as SFL.

I agree with this. Marshall and Kan were not even RLM plays. S. Fla threw me for a loop last night. What I don't get is every time I side with the public or the so called "square play" I get burned!! The books had to have gotten killed last night. The percentages were so heavy on K St and WVU. What am I missing? The books setting up the public for the weekend?

[packbacker79]

Yeah I had been playing some games over the last few weeks that had no RLM but instead had no movement around key numbers like Marshall staying below 7 and Kansas sticking to 3. I'm going to stick with only RLM for the weekend unless there is heavy action on one side and it seems like a sucker bet.

[packbacker79]

If I remove the games from the past 4 weeks that had lines that stayed the same even with heavy public opinion and just look at the RLM games with at least 1 pt RLM here is what the last 4 weeks look like.

Rules:
#1 Must be at least 1pt line move to justify RLM
#2 If less that 60% on one side there must be 1.5 pt+ RLM.
#3 Only exception to Rule #2 is if it crosses 3 or 7.
#4 Don't play a game if less than 5,000 bets have been placed on the game.
#5 Don't play games with over 20 pt spread. (Added after reviewing last 4 weeks)

Week 3

Iowa State +4 L (Line went from +5.5 to +4 with 77% on K State)
San Diego St +14.5 W (Line went from +16 to +14.5 with 69% on Missouri)
Air Force +16.5 W (Line went from +18 to +16.5 with 64% on Oklahoma)
Arizona St +11.5 W (Line went from +15 to +11.5 with 63% on Wisc)
Vanderbilt +11.5 W (Outright win)(Line went from +13.5 to +11.5 w/ 60% Miss)
Colorado -13.5 W (Line went fron -11.5 to -13.5 with 59% on Hawaii)
Utah St +3.5 L (Line went from +6 to +3.5 with 60% on Fresno St)
Arizona -2.5 W (Line went from +1 to -2.5 with 61% on Iowa)
Texas Tech +3 L (Line went from +4 to +3 with 62% on Texas)
Minnesota +11 W (Line went from +13 to +11 with 67% on USC)
Virginia Tech -20 W (Line went from -17.5 to -20 with 67% on ECU)
Washington +3 L (Line went from +4 to +3 with 67% on Nebraska)

8-4 (66%)

Week 4

Northern Iowa +8 L (Line went from +11.5 to +8 with 71% on Iowa State)
Arkansas St +10.5 W (Line went from +11.5 to +10.5 with 68% on Troy)
Central Mich +6.5 W Line went from +9 to +6.5 with 67% on Northwestern)
Southeastern La +10.5 W (Line went from +16 to +10.5 with 66% on UL Monroe)
Toledo +11 W (Outight win) (Line went from +13 to +11 with 65% on Purdue)
Tulane +19 W (Line went from +20 to +19 with 63% on Houston)
Temple +13.5 W (Line went from +17 to +13.5 with 61% on Penn State)
La Tech +3.5 W (Line went from +5.5 to +3.5 with 69% on Southern Miss)
Cinncinati +14 W (Line went from +17 to +14 with 71% on Oklahoma)

8-1 (89%)

Week 5


Utah State +4 W (Outright win) (Line went from +6.5 to +4 with 61% on BYU)
Indiana +10 W (Line went from +14 to +10 with 77% on Michigan)
Minnesota +4.5 W (Line went from +5.5 to +4.5 with 77% on Northwestern)
N. Carolina -14 W (Line went from -10.5 to -14 with 55% on East Carolina)
Iowa State +7 W (Outright win) (Line went from +9 to +7 with 86% Texas Tech)
Idaho -3.5 W (Blow Out) (Line went from -2.5 to -3.5 with 54% on W. Mich)
Buffalo +3 W (Outright win) (Line went from +7 to +3 with 73% Bowling Green)
Illinois +16.5 W (Line went from +18 to +16.5 with 83% on Ohio St)
Arizona St +3.5 W (Line went from +5 to +3.5 with 54% on Oregon St)
Washington +9.5 W (Outright win) (Line went from +10.5 to +9.5 with 66% USC)
La Tech +8 L (Line went from +10 to +8 with 84% on Hawaii)

10-1 (90%)

Week 6


Kansas St +10.5 L (THURS night)(Line went from +12 to +10.5 with 67% on NEB)
Rugers +5 W (Outright win) (Line went from +6 to +5 with 62% on Uconn)
Syracuse +8 W (Outright win) (Line went from +10 to +8 when 67% were S. Fla)
Wake Forest +3 W (Line went from +5.5 to +3 with 55% on Navy)
Iowa State +6 L (Big Loss) (Line went from +7.5 to +6 with 79% on Utah)
East Carolina +8 W (Line went from +9.5 to +8 with 71% on So Miss)
South Carolina +6.5 W(Outright win)(Line went from +7.5 to +6.5 w/ 74% Bama)
LSU +6.5 W (Outright win) (Line went from -7.5 to -6.5 with 73% on Florida)
Texas Tech -2 W (Line went from -1 to -2 even though 58% on Baylor)
Tx A&M +5 L (Very Close) (Line went from +8.5 to +5 even though 82% Ark)
La Tech -2 W (Big win) (Line went from +3 to -2 with 60% on Utah St)
BYU +4.5 W (Outright win) (Line went from +6 to +4.5 with 67% San Diego St)
Kentucky +5.5 W (Line went from +8 to +5.5 with 79% on Auburn)
Purdue +8 W (Outright win) (Line went from +10 to +8 with 66% Northwestern)
New Mexico +2.5 W (Barely)(Line went from +3.5 to +2.5 with 56% New Mex St)

12-3 (80%) (With the TX A&M game being VERY close)

Last four weeks 38-9 or 80%
Last three weeks 30-5 or 85%
Last two weeks 22-4 or 85%


When we included the games without true RLM it was closer to 74%

No brainer here. Lets stick with only true RLM this weekend and see how it goes.

[stefan084]

yea the bookies are gonna run scared because a bunch of "system" players think they found the holy grail.

bookies always win in the end. they could care less about rlm, the public, or anything else for that matter.

it's a business run by professionals, and they're pretty good at it.





no. this is the dumbest post ever.

actually the expression is "couldn't care less"---dumb post indeed

[stefan084]

where is everyone getting their 28,000 bets x% bet on team x type information? do you have to pay for this somewhere? I've always wanted to use the rlm system--thanks for any help

[QuantumLeap]

Updated lines I'm following:

RLM of 1pt or more & 70%+ Public

Kentucky
Miss State
Washington
Wisconsin

RLM of 1pt or more & 60%+ Public

Washington St.
San Diego st
Arkansas State
Syracuse
Vanderbilt

NO RLM or only 1/2 pt RLM & more than 70%+ Public

Duke
Virginia
Rice
Auburn

NO RLM or only 1/2 pt RLM & more than 60%+ Public

Texas
UAB
Texas Tech

Where do you get your public numbers from? I find different sources to be quite different from each other sometimes.

[TakeIt]

If remove the games from the past two weeks that had lines that stayed the same even with heavy public opinion and just look at the RLM games with at least 1 pt RLM here is what the last two weeks look like.

Week Before Last

Utah State +4 W (Outright win) (Line went from +6.5 to +4 with 61% on BYU)
Indiana +10 W (Line went from +14 to +10 with 77% on Michigan)
Minnesota +4.5 W (Line went from +5.5 to +4.5 with 77% on Northwestern)
N. Carolina -14 W (Line went from -10.5 to -14 with 55% on East Carolina)
Iowa State +7 W (Outright win) (Line went from +9 to +7 with 86% on Texas Tech)
Idaho -3.5 W (Blow Out) (Line went from -2.5 to -3.5 with 54% on W. Mich)
Buffalo +3 W (Outright win) (Line went from +7 to +3 with 73% on Bowling Green)
Illinois +16.5 W (Line went from +18 to +16.5 with 83% on Ohio St)
Arizona St +3.5 W (Line went from +5 to +3.5 with 54% on Oregon St)
Washington +9.5 W (Outright win) (Line went from +10.5 to +9.5 with 66% on USC)
La Tech +8 L (Line went from +10 to +8 with 84% on Hawaii)

10-1

Last Week

Kansas St +10.5 L (THURS night)(Line went from +12 to +10.5 with 67% on NEB)
Rugers +5 W (Outright win) (Line went from +6 to +5 with 62% on Uconn)
Syracuse +8 W (Outright win) (Line went from +10 to +8 when 67% were on S. Fla)
Wake Forest +3 W (Line went from +5.5 to +3 with 55% on Navy)
Iowa State +6 L (Big Loss) (Line went from +7.5 to +6 with 79% on Utah)
Central Mich +21.5 L (Lost by 2.5pts) (Line went from +24 to +21.5 with 71% on Va Tech)
East Carolina +8 W (Line went from +9.5 to +8 with 71% on So Miss)
South Carolina +6.5 W (Outright win) (Line went from +7.5 to +6.5 with 74% on Bama)
LSU +6.5 W (Outright win) (Line went from -7.5 to -6.5 with 73% on Florida)
Texas Tech -2 W (Line went from -1 to -2 even though 58% on Baylor)
Tx A&M +5 L (Very Close) (Line went from +8.5 to +5 even though 82% on Arkansas)
La Tech -2 W (Big win) (Line went from +3 to -2 with 60% on Utah St)
BYU +4.5 W (Outright win) (Line went from +6 to +4.5 with 67% on San Diego St)
Kentucky +5.5 W (Line went from +8 to +5.5 with 79% on Auburn)
Purdue +8 W (Outright win) (Line went from +10 to +8 with 66% on Northwestern)
New Mexico +2.5 W (Barely) (Line went from +3.5 to +2.5 with 56% om New Mex St)

12-4 (With the TX A&M game and the Central Michigan game being VERY close)

Last two weeks 22-5 or 81.5%

When we included the games without true RLM it was 28-10 or 74%

No brainer here. Lets stick with only true RLM this weekend and see how it goes.

are you going to post the true rlm plays this week before the games go off?

[EXhoosier10]

I've bene playin straight RLM in NCAAF and it works wonders. Stick with this thread and you should make money

[navyhawk]

I use sportsinsights but the free version doesnt give as much information obv. Not sure where to find # of bets placed.

[packbacker79]

Sports insights free version shows the number of wagers. Thats what I use.

[packbacker79]

Week 7 Plays as of 2pm EST Friday

South Florida +10 L (Lost by 4pts)(Line went from +11.5 to +10 with 66% WVU)

Syracuse +1 (Line went from +2.5 to +1 with 68% on Pittsburgh)
Vanderbilt +14 (Line went from +16.5 to +14 with 62% on Georgia)
Arkansas St +10 (Line went from +14 to +10 with 70% on Indiana)
Kentucky +4.5 (Line went from +6.5 to +4.5 with 73% on South Carolina)
Miss St +7.5 (Line went from +9.5 to +7.5 with 83% on Florida)
Wisconsin +3.5 (Line went from +6 to +3.5 with 77% on Ohio St)
San Diego St +1.5 (Line went from +3.5 to +1.5 with 69% on Air Force)
Washington -2 (Line went from +1.5 to -2 with 70% on Oregon St)
Hawaii +6.5 (Line went from +8.5 to +6.5 with 58% on Nevada)

[Educ8d Degener8]

Interesting movement with the Seahawks line, no? Opened at +7, now at +6, with only 29% on the Seahags... this in light of the news that Cutler is likely to play... and the fact that the Hawks are horrid on the road. I just don't think I could bring myself to lay coin on them.

Fins v Packers has some movement, but the ratio is only nearing 60/40, plus the injury factors (Finley, Rodgers, Pack Defense) may be clouding that one... so I'll likely stay away.

[DeluxeLiner]

Interesting movement with the Seahawks line, no? Opened at +7, now at +6, with only 29% on the Seahags... this in light of the news that Cutler is likely to play... and the fact that the Hawks are horrid on the road. I just don't think I could bring myself to lay coin on them.

Fins v Packers has some movement, but the ratio is only nearing 60/40, plus the injury factors (Finley, Rodgers, Pack Defense) may be clouding that one... so I'll likely stay away.

I am really liking the Seahawks line because it seems like a scary line and those are the best to bet.

The Fins/Packers line could be affected by injury news so I would stay away

[packbacker79]

NFL plays as of now look like:

RLM
Seahawks +6 (Line went from +7 to +6 with 71% on Bears)

RLM possibilities to watch
Giants -10 (Line went from -9.5 to -10 with 52% on Detroit)
Miami +3.5 (Line went from +5 to +3.5 with 51% on GB)

No line movement when it seems there should be
Tampa Bay +4 (71% on N.O. but no line movement)
Broncos +3 (76% on Jets but no line movement sitting on key number)
Oakland +6.5 (62% on San Fran but no line movement and staying below key number)

[stefan084]

thanks for the info. how long has this been working? it seems if you stuck to this strictly you would be rich.it seems too good to be true, whats the deal here?

[4TH AND STUPID]

NFL plays as of now look like:

RLM
Seahawks +6 (Line went from +7 to +6 with 71% on Bears)

RLM possibilities to watch
Giants -10 (Line went from -9.5 to -10 with 52% on Detroit)
Miami +3.5 (Line went from +5 to +3.5 with 51% on GB)

No line movement when it seems there should be
Tampa Bay +4 (71% on N.O. but no line movement)
Broncos +3 (76% on Jets but no line movement sitting on key number)
Oakland +6.5 (62% on San Fran but no line movement and staying below key number)

arent indy and tennessee part of the 'sitting on key numbers' ? :S

[GGPLAYER]

Week 7 Plays as of 2pm EST Friday

South Florida +10 L (Lost by 4pts)(Line went from +11.5 to +10 with 66% WVU)

Syracuse +1 (Line went from +2.5 to +1 with 68% on Pittsburgh)
Vanderbilt +14 (Line went from +16.5 to +14 with 62% on Georgia)
Arkansas St +10 (Line went from +14 to +10 with 70% on Indiana)
Kentucky +4.5 (Line went from +6.5 to +4.5 with 73% on South Carolina)
Miss St +7.5 (Line went from +9.5 to +7.5 with 83% on Florida)
Wisconsin +3.5 (Line went from +6 to +3.5 with 77% on Ohio St)
San Diego St +1.5 (Line went from +3.5 to +1.5 with 69% on Air Force)
Washington -2 (Line went from +1.5 to -2 with 70% on Oregon St)
Hawaii +6.5 (Line went from +8.5 to +6.5 with 58% on Nevada)

Remember to hold off as long as you can before you bet. Some of these lines come back (Marshall). Right now based on the site I use there are not enough bets yet on SU, Vandy and Ark ST. All under 5,000.

[packbacker79]

thanks for the info. how long has this been working? it seems if you stuck to this strictly you would be rich.it seems too good to be true, whats the deal here?

Just playing RLM. Looking for lines moving against the public to follow "smart money". Seems to good to be true to me as well but those numbers from the last 4 weeks are the real deal.

Wish I had played them all!

[Ras1112]

Very impressive results so far BOL!
Unfortunately more often than not means nothing. Can be fluke or dumb luck or combination of both. Who bet long enough knows, sometimes there is no explanation, shit just happens There is general agreement on line moves, btw different sources have different numbers, but you better be ready to move it before books do.
Will bet on your selections this week just to show my support though. Even if we lose won't be the first time.

[stefan084]

Remember to hold off as long as you can before you bet. Some of these lines come back (Marshall). Right now based on the site I use there are not enough bets yet on SU, Vandy and Ark ST. All under 5,000.

you bring up a good point/question. what number of bets is considered significant to use for rlm? 20,000 or so? i'm sure it might differ depending on the popularity of the game (for public bets)

[QuantumLeap]

Sports insights free version shows the number of wagers. Thats what I use.

Thanks for the reply pack.

[ThaWoj]

I use sportsinsights but the free version doesnt give as much information obv. Not sure where to find # of bets placed.

thespread.com should show # of bets placed

[pokerwhiz90]

hoping you re update that list with updated rlm movement, i'm liking some other games as well seems like the list is kind of short...

thanks a bunch man, your really contributing a lot here.. also you guys should check out my right plays thereads

[packbacker79]

Week 7 As of now

South Florida +10 L (Lost by 4pts)(Line went from +11.5 to +10 with 66% WVU)

Syracuse +1.5 (Line went from +2.5 to +1.5 with 68% on Pittsburgh) 6,000 Wagers
Vanderbilt +14.5 (Line went from +16.5 to +14.5 with 64% on Georgia) 5,400 Wagers
Arkansas St +10 (Line went from +14 to +10 with 72% on Indiana) 2,500
Kentucky +4.5 (Line went from +6.5 to +4.5 with 71% on South Carolina) 11,000
Miss St +8 (Line went from +9.5 to +8 with 81% on Florida) 9,300
Wisconsin +3.5 (Line went from +6 to +3.5 with 75% on Ohio St) 13,600
San Diego St +1.5 (Line went from +3.5 to +1.5 with 69% on Air Force) 6,800
Washington -2 (Line went from +1.5 to -2 with 68% on Oregon St) 7,300
Hawaii +6.5 (Line went from +8.5 to +6.5 with 56% on Nevada) 8,900

[Goat Milk]

NFL plays as of now look like:

RLM
Seahawks +6 (Line went from +7 to +6 with 71% on Bears)

RLM possibilities to watch
Giants -10 (Line went from -9.5 to -10 with 52% on Detroit)
Miami +3.5 (Line went from +5 to +3.5 with 51% on GB)

No line movement when it seems there should be
Tampa Bay +4 (71% on N.O. but no line movement)
Broncos +3 (76% on Jets but no line movement sitting on key number)
Oakland +6.5 (62% on San Fran but no line movement and staying below key number)

where are you getting these numbers from? These numbers are not accurate at all.

[packbacker79]

They are the same numbers I have used for the last 4-5 weeks. I have been using Sports Insights. Mainly use Pinnacle.

[Goat Milk]

your numbers are not correct i don't think. show me where pinny has 62 percent on SF spread. Most are on Oakland last time i looked at pinnacle yesterday

[grindstone]

NFL plays as of now look like:

RLM
Seahawks +6 (Line went from +7 to +6 with 71% on Bears)

RLM possibilities to watch
Giants -10 (Line went from -9.5 to -10 with 52% on Detroit)
Miami +3.5 (Line went from +5 to +3.5 with 51% on GB)

No line movement when it seems there should be
Tampa Bay +4 (71% on N.O. but no line movement)
Broncos +3 (76% on Jets but no line movement sitting on key number)
Oakland +6.5 (62% on San Fran but no line movement and staying below key number)

Hey Pack I see this on the SF/OAK game
Spread %
10/17/10 229 Oakland 40½ 6.5
41.5 12949 57%


4:05PM 230 San Francisco -6 -6.5
41.5 43%



This game doesn't make sense at all SF 0-5 and laying -6.5 and OAk winning against SD last week and they are catching +6.5

[frpm00]

Just playing RLM. Looking for lines moving against the public to follow "smart money". Seems to good to be true to me as well but those numbers from the last 4 weeks are the real deal. Wish I had played them all!

This is not a new system people have been betting this way for a while now through out a whole yr you would prob hit anywhere from 55-65% the thing is you got to get on the line @ the right time also. For ex look @ the Indiana Ark St game "Arkansas St +10 (Line went from +14 to +10 with 72% on Indiana) 2,500 " Betting it now @ +10 you see the greatest RLM but you prob should of bet it @ +12. Not saying it is not a bet @ +10 just I think you see where I am going with this. That Texas A&M Ark game last week was a prime example as well. I bet that game when A&M was +6.5 ( line opened +7.5 or +8 ) and bought a 1/2 to get me to +7 line closed @ A&M +5 I believe for those who waited they ended up with a L those who chose to get in a little earlier got a push most likely. I've been betting this way for the past 3 years. Got to pick your games and get in at the right time on them. BOL this is a great tool to use just pick your spots also look for other factors in why there is RLM then you will be able to have a feel or lean on games like this when you see a line come out and get on the game faster and become the "smart money".
My plays this week are
Syr
Kentucky
Wisc
Hawaii
San Diego St
Wash
2 best bets Hawaii & Kentucky.

[frpm00]

Also what you can look into think about it you teased these games what the % throughout the yr could be. Most of these RLM games if they dont hit its not because the "smart money" was way off and the team gets blown out games are normally close. Look @ USF Wed night. Just a thought to pick4-5 best game and play a 6 pt teaser with them.Or even best 2-3 winning money is winning money.

[packbacker79]

Week 7 As of now

South Florida +10 L (Lost by 4pts)(Line went from +11.5 to +10 with 66% WVU)

Syracuse +1.5 (Line went from +2.5 to +1.5 with 71% on Pittsburgh) 13,000 Wagers
Vanderbilt +14.5 (Line went from +16.5 to +14.5 with 64% on Georgia) 6,700 Wagers
Arkansas St +10 (Line went from +14 to +10 with 77% on Indiana) 3,400
Kentucky +4.5 (Line went from +6.5 to +4.5 with 71% on South Carolina) 14,000
Miss St +8 (Line went from +9.5 to +8 with 79% on Florida) 12,000
Wisconsin +3.5 (Line went from +6 to +3.5 with 75% on Ohio St) 17,000
San Diego St +1.5 (Line went from +3.5 to +1.5 with 70% on Air Force) 8,700
Washington -2 (Line went from +1.5 to -2 with 68% on Oregon St) 8,900
Hawaii +6.5 (Line went from +8.5 to +6.5 with 58% on Nevada) 11,000[/color]

[GGPLAYER]

Week 7 As of now

South Florida +10 L (Lost by 4pts)(Line went from +11.5 to +10 with 66% WVU)

Syracuse +1.5 (Line went from +2.5 to +1.5 with 71% on Pittsburgh) 13,000 Wagers
Vanderbilt +14.5 (Line went from +16.5 to +14.5 with 64% on Georgia) 6,700 Wagers
Arkansas St +10 (Line went from +14 to +10 with 77% on Indiana) 3,400
Kentucky +4.5 (Line went from +6.5 to +4.5 with 71% on South Carolina) 14,000
Miss St +8 (Line went from +9.5 to +8 with 79% on Florida) 12,000
Wisconsin +3.5 (Line went from +6 to +3.5 with 75% on Ohio St) 17,000
San Diego St +1.5 (Line went from +3.5 to +1.5 with 70% on Air Force) 8,700
Washington -2 (Line went from +1.5 to -2 with 68% on Oregon St) 8,900
Hawaii +6.5 (Line went from +8.5 to +6.5 with 58% on Nevada) 11,000[/color]

Someone asked about how many bets to look for...we have been using 5,000 for a min. I'm still not sold on SU. The number of bets has gone over 5,000 but the line is also back to 2-2.5. This is why it's so important to wait as long as you can before you bet a RLM game. I will either pass or bet Pitt at this point. Vandy, Kentucky, Miss St, Wis, SD St, Was (went from dog to fav) all seem to fit the bill very well right now. Ark St is still shy of 5,000 bets and Hawaii % has dipped below 60%. Keep checking as the day goes on. I really need to tighten things up after a loose week of betting and losing. F**king Lou last night gives up a long TD on a 3rd and 9 play!! Ball the man not the ball!! Ok breathe GG..I'm ok now. Let's have a winning day!!

[GGPLAYER]

NFL plays as of now look like:

RLM
Seahawks +6 (Line went from +7 to +6 with 71% on Bears)

RLM possibilities to watch
Giants -10 (Line went from -9.5 to -10 with 52% on Detroit)
Miami +3.5 (Line went from +5 to +3.5 with 51% on GB)

No line movement when it seems there should be
Tampa Bay +4 (71% on N.O. but no line movement)
Broncos +3 (76% on Jets but no line movement sitting on key number)
Oakland +6.5 (62% on San Fran but no line movement and staying below key number)

Guys this is what I'm seeing as of right now:

Sea is a play. Chi opens -7 (10,000 bets) over 70% on Chi and line has moved to -6. Play Sea +6

Philly is a maybe only because the line moved off the key number of 3 to 2.5 with over 70% on Atl.

NYG/Det is at 50-50% and the Mia/GB shows RLM but I feel that has more to do with injuries than RLM.

[GGPLAYER]

your numbers are not correct i don't think. show me where pinny has 62 percent on SF spread. Most are on Oakland last time i looked at pinnacle yesterday

I'm seeing more on Oak too. About 60% at this time with 14,000 bets. I like SF here but that is just me.

[Shafted69]

Great insight. Now i'm having internal conflicts.



















-