RLM

[pokerwhiz90]

RLM system overall this week including games I did not play.

Kansas St +10.5 L (Line went from +12 to +10.5 with 67% on NEB)
Rugers +5 W (Outright win) (Line went from +6 to +5 with 62% on Uconn)
Syracuse +8 W (Outright win) (Line went from +10 to +8 when 67% were on S. Fla)
Michigan St +5 W (Outright win) (Line stayed at +5 even though 64% on Mich)
Boston Col +9.5 L (Bc I was there pulling for the Pack (Stayed at +10 w. 78% on Pack)
N. Illinois -3 W (Big win) (Line stayed at -3 with 58% on Temple)
Wake Forest +3 W (Line went from +5.5 to +3 with 55% on Navy)
Georgia -11.5 W (Big win) (Line went from -11 to -11.5 with 68% on Tenn)
Iowa State +6 L (Big Loss) (Line went from +7.5 to +6 with 79% on Utah)
Central Mich +21.5 L (Lost by 2.5pts) (Line went from +24 to +21.5 with 71% on Va Tech)
Ohio -8 W (Big Win) (Line went from -7.5 to -8 with 54% on Bowling Green)
East Carolina +8 W (Line went from +9.5 to +8 with 71% on So Miss)
South Carolina +6.5 W (Outright win) (Line went from +7.5 to +6.5 with 74% on Bama)
LSU +6.5 W (Outright win) (Line went from -7.5 to -6.5 with 73% on Florida)
Texas Tech -2 W (Line went from -1 to -2 even though 58% on Baylor)
Tx A&M +5 L (Close) (Line went from +8.5 to +5 even though 82% on Arkansas)
La Tech -2 W (Big win) (Line went from +3 to -2 with 60% on Utah St)
BYU +4.5 W (Outright win) (Line went from +6 to +4.5 with 67% on San Diego St)
Kentucky +5.5 W (Line went from +8 to +5.5 with 79% on Auburn)
Purdue +8 W (Outright win) (Line went from +10 to +8 with 66% on Northwestern)
New Mexico +2.5 W (Barely) (Line went from +3.5 to +2.5 with 56% om New Mex St)
Tulsa +6.5 W (Line went from +6.5 to +6.5 even though 62% on SMU)
Western Kentucky +9 W (Line went from +9 to +9 even though 79% were on Fl Intl)

16-4 with 7 dogs winning outright.

Diesel and Goaline...I would like to team up with you guys and compare notes as we head into next weekend.

NFL was 3-4 this weekend but that was after 3 weeks of 4-1 or 5-1 so could have just been a weird weekend. Would have been 4-2 if KC could have hit that FG at the end.

Hey Can you start a thread from the RLM for NCAA i know there is one for the nfl already but it'd be really great if you could post something like this for the College football forum! Thanks

[Dark Horse]

nm.

[GGPLAYER]

[quote=packbacker79;6832107]The following are the games that I will be tracking this week. These will not all be plays but this list is where I will pull from.

Marshall


Packbacker this is looking like a play. What's your take on it?

[packbacker79]

As of now there have been 23,000+ wagers on the game. Of those wagers 71% are on Central Florida. The line opened at Pinnacle at Central Florida -6.5. In the first 24-48 hours that line went down to -5.5 but has now come back up to -6.5. There was RLM in the early line and even though the line has come back up to the opening line it is still staying below the key number of -7. This is supsicious to me. The public would assume that based on the win/loss records and other factors that Central FL should win this game.

I usually take a look at wagerline's consensus numbers to get another vantage point. Wagerline has about 2500 picks with 65% on Central Fl. So the public clearly thinks that Central Fl is the play. Why would the books keep the line below 7 unless they wanted that side to look appealing?

Also when you look at the matchup on wagerline it has Central FL with the advantage in ALL categories so again why is the line staying below 7 at -6.5 ????

Keep in mind that the whole theory behind RLM is that you try and figure out what side the books want you and go the other way. In addition to seeing where the public is and where the potential smart money is and follow that. Early in the week it looks like the books wanted people on Central FL so they lowered the line to -5.5 to get action on that side. Or they had some early smart money wagers on Marshall. As the public has piled on Central FL the line has come up some bc they could do that without it really affecting whether people would still take that side. However they are not willing to go over -6.5 just yet.

Also, as previously mentioned I like to look at Pinny and see if they are trying to attract line shoppers who want to take Central Fl. Pinny has the same line as everyone else seems to have in this case but the juice is much less. Pinny has -6.5 -103 while the others have -110, -110, -115, and even -125 at SIA. If you were shopping for the best line to take Central FL Pinny would be the place to go.

I also love it when the system kicks out a RLM play that give a home team points on national TV.

So based on these factors Marshall would be the play.

This system often creates plays that go against my instincts. It is sometimes hard to pull the trigger on a play because it seems like such a reach but over the last 4 weeks it has been very consistent. I am of the thought that the people putting big money on these games as well as the books are smarter than me. I just try and figure out what they are doing.

Disclaimer: I am not a pro, guru, specialist, wealthy gambler, or hot shot. This is a method that I have been using over the last 4 weeks with great results. Play at your own risk.

Final note, it does appear that Central Florida's running back is doubtful. Dont know anything more specific related to what impact that will have on their performance but just thought I would let you know.

GOOD LUCK!

[iifold]

pretty good stuff packbacker..

i just clicked on "straightwinners" thread and came up with the same conclusion

[EXhoosier10]

RLM has been my only betting in NCAA football and I've been +money for the last 2 years and am up $$ this year as well.

[vyomguy]

guys shhh....stop bumping the thread.

[pokerwhiz90]

AWESOME! I agree! but a part of me still says UCF will either lose outright or win by 20

[pokerwhiz90]

Is there sites I can see the RLM for previous weeks? I'm really interested in looking at this from week 1

[packbacker79]

Not sure the last weeks are on this board. I will try and post the first couple when i have a chance.

[pokerwhiz90]

Not sure the last weeks are on this board. I will try and post the first couple when i have a chance.

you're really doing all of us a pretty huge favor, i've been comparing only the top 25 rlm and it's been pretty good for the previous weeks.

the under's looking good for the current game tho, hope marshall cashes

[packbacker79]

So far a very bizarre game

[pokerwhiz90]

yeah... also tomorrow's kansas state game... i dont know if i can follow the rlm on that

[packbacker79]

Marshall +6.5 L (Weird Game) (Line started at +6.5 and ended at +6.5 with 71% on Central FL)

*Last week started off with a loss as well.

[pokerwhiz90]

the under should have hit except for the interception touchdown

[Sidetracked]

Marshll very odd started at 6.5 went to 4.5 and then ended at 6.5 shud of been a no play but went with marshall anyway

[TakeIt]

guys shhh....stop bumping the thread.

yea the bookies are gonna run scared because a bunch of "system" players think they found the holy grail.

bookies always win in the end. they could care less about rlm, the public, or anything else for that matter.

it's a business run by professionals, and they're pretty good at it.

[Totolover1409]

I agree, it should have been a no-play since the line moved back to 6.5.

In any case, onto the weekend pack.

[pokerwhiz90]

i think the time when rlm isn't working is when the smart money and the square money are the same... i really think many sharps were on ucf as well

so for tomorrow, you might say kansas is the right play, but i think kansas state will win... because vegas knows there is a lot of late action for many sharps to jump onto kansas tonight as well

idk just a theory

[DeluxeLiner]

regarding college...only play 70%+, check for injuries affecting the number, only play RLM home teams, and make sure there are over 10k bets placed. I think those parameters would be crazy successful

[GGPLAYER]

Public is all over Kan St and WVU. The one has moved 1.5 points in favor of WVU. Kan St line is not moving. I like S. Fla so far but they are on the road.

[vyomguy]

bookies always win in the end. they could care less about rlm, the public, or anything else for that matter.

This is probably the dumbest post ever .

[packbacker79]

Plays for today (as of 3:30pm EST):

Kansas +3
78% of 25,000 wagers are on Kansas State -3. The line opened at Pinny with Kansas St -3 while some other books opened with Kansas St -3.5 or -4 and yet the line has dropped/ remained at the key number of -3. Suspicous. Wagerline also has 70% of their 2500 or so picks on Kansas St. So the public perception is obvioulsy that K State covers. Why would the books keep the line at -3 when there is so much action on that side? They either know thats the wrong side to be on and they are going to clean house, they have "smart" action on Kansas and need to even that out, or they are just dumb and they are setting themselves up to get hit hard if K State covers. Kansas would be the play here.

Added observations:

-In state rivalry game.
-Game will come down to ball control

-K State has a terrible run defense allowing avg of 246 yds on the ground.
-K State rushing defense ranks 116th in the nation out of 120 teams
-K State doesnt have the best pass offense.
-K State has trouble on the road.
-K State got hammered by Nebraska last week.
-K State QB has average less than 70 yds passing in last two games.
-K State hasn't had a road win in two seasons.
-K State is a run oriented offense.
-K State hasnt won in Lawrence since 2002
-This is K States 1st official road game of the year.
-K State needs this win if it has hopes of a bowl game.

-Kansas has lost 8 straight Big 12 games..desperate to get back on track.
-Kansas has won 5 straight games coming off bye weeks
-Kansas redshirt freshman QB has thrown at least 1 TD in each of his 4 starts
-Kansas defense was destroyed in their last game (Baylor). Gave up 55 pts. I
would assume the last 2 weeks of practice have not been pleasant for the
defense. I would expect that spanking to be VERY fresh in their minds tonight.
-The key for Kansas will be to pick up first downs and keep K State's RB off the field.
-This is Kansas second non-Saturday game of the season. They have won 4 straight Thursday night games.
-Win tonight gets Kansas back to .500

*It is possible that this low line is due to an over reaction to the blowout loss by K State last week.

South Florida +10
This has dropped from 72% to 68% of 25,000 wagers are on West Virginia -10. The line opened at Pinny with West Virginia -11.5 and yet the line has dropped (RLM) to -10 (key numberWagerline also has 66% of their 2500 or so picks on West Virginia. So the public perception is obvioulsy that West Virginia covers. Why would the books drop the line to -10 when there is so much action on that side already? South Florida would be the play here.

Will update again as we get closer to kickoff. I should also mention that this system has worked well on Saturdays it seems that the games during the week have a slightly lower percentage. However bc there are so few games during the week its hard to get a good sample like we can with Saturdays.

Last week the weekday plays were K State and Rutgers. K state got blown out and Rutgers covered and won outright. The week before that was Tx A&M which took an early lead as the dog and then had a few ridiculous turnovers for tds which put them behind. They rallied and lost by three which caused a push. The other play that week was Utah St which blew their opponent out. So of the last 4 weekday games it would be 2 wins, 1 loss, and 1 push. Definetly not bad its just tougher to gauge if it makes a difference because the losses on Saturday are padded by a lot more games. Just thought I would put that out there.

-S Florida is 3-1 in the last 4 meetings with WVU
-S Florida held WVU to less than 20 pts in their last 4 meetings.
-S Florida is coming off a loss to Syracuse last week.
-S Florida defensive coordinator knows what WVU QB is capable of.
-S Florida has a decent defense ranked 19th in the nation allowing 16pts per game.
-After losing last week S Florida cannot afford to lose another game this week.
-S Florida's offense struggle last week and only got 3 FGs
-S Florida has allowed more than 14 points only 1 time this season.
-S Florida avg 176 yds per game rushing.
-S Florida played a close game with Florida.

-WVU backs are expected to play but are a bit dinged up. One with a foot and the other with a knee issue.
-WVU coming off a SOLID win against UNLV.
-WVU defense has been incredible as of late. 7th best in the country.
-WVU only giving up avg of 87 yds rushing.
-WVU has score 30+ points in 3 of 5 games this season.
-WVU is 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games following a SU win of more than 20 points
-The team WVU has beaten this year are Coastal Carolina, Marshall, UNLV, and Maryland. Not exactly tough games. They lost to LSU 20-14.

Game is expected to be a DEFENSIVE BATTLE. If South Florida cant stop WVU offense which is playing pretty well right now they may have a problem considering the talent WVU has on defense.

**Not to make fun of anyone but I dont think we have to be worried about books browsing this forum

At this point I feel pretty good about Kansas and I am a little hesitant about South Florida. South Florida seems like the bigger stretch tonight based on what WVU is capable of. South Florida's defense is going to have to perform at a high level to keep this one close.

[packbacker79]

Updated list of lines I'm tracking:

Kansas
South Florida
Louisville
Duke (added)
Syracuse
Clemson (may remove - wait another day)
Illinois
East Carolina
Vanderbilt (added)
Kentucky
Miss State
Colorado
Buffalo (added)
Virginia
Texas
Michigan
Washington (added)
UAB
Washington St (added)
Texas Tech
Memphis
Rice (added)
Wiscy
Auburn
San Diego St
Fresno St
Hawaii
Arkansas State

[goallinebob]

Hey packbacker throw your final plays in my thread when you have completed if you would,,,

[TakeIt]

yea the bookies are gonna run scared because a bunch of "system" players think they found the holy grail.

bookies always win in the end. they could care less about rlm, the public, or anything else for that matter.

it's a business run by professionals, and they're pretty good at it.

This is probably the dumbest post ever .

guys shhh....stop bumping the thread.

no. this is the dumbest post ever.

[packbacker79]

Kansas +3
South Florida +10

Good Luck!

[shades12]

Kansas could lose to the best high school team. They SUCK!

[packbacker79]

Agreed..Kansas is terrible. South Florida is hanging in there. Lets see what they do with the ball at the beginning of the 2nd.

As I mentioned it seems that weekday games are lower percentage than Sat. I will also say that I may just stick with the true RLM plays during the week going forrward and hold off on games where the line hasnt changed even thought the public is all over it.

Of the 3 so far this week Marshall started at ended at +6.5. Kansas started and ended with +3. But South Florida was true RLM.

[Totolover1409]

Took Kansas St -3. Keep looking forward packback

[packbacker79]

Marshall +6.5 L (Weird Game, Wed, Home) (Line started at +6.5 ended at +6.5 NO RLM w/ 71% on Central FL)
Kansas +3 L (Blow Out, Thurs, Home) (Line started at +3 and ended at +3 NO RLM w/ 76% on K State)
South Florida +10 L (End of Half Int, 4pts, Thurs, Away) (Line start at +11.5 ended +10 w/ 66% on WVU)

Rough start. Not messing around with game tomorrow. On to Saturday.

[pokerwhiz90]

The way i see it, all the losses should be accounted for, so all wins on saturday hahaha... i wish that was the way it worked

[packbacker79]

Updated lines I'm following:

RLM of 1pt or more & 70%+ Public

Kentucky
Miss State
Washington
Wisconsin

RLM of 1pt or more & 60%+ Public

Washington St.
San Diego st
Arkansas State
Syracuse
Vanderbilt

NO RLM or only 1/2 pt RLM & more than 70%+ Public

Duke
Virginia
Rice
Auburn

NO RLM or only 1/2 pt RLM & more than 60%+ Public

Texas
UAB
Texas Tech

[dvb02]

Hopefully we will get some wins this weekend. Packbacker, do you look at totals also?

[Dark Horse]

Marshall +6.5 L (Weird Game, Wed, Home) (Line started at +6.5 ended at +6.5 NO RLM w/ 71% on Central FL)
Kansas +3 L (Blow Out, Thurs, Home) (Line started at +3 and ended at +3 NO RLM w/ 76% on K State)
South Florida +10 L (End of Half Int, 4pts, Thurs, Away) (Line start at +11.5 ended +10 w/ 66% on WVU)

Rough start. Not messing around with game tomorrow. On to Saturday.

Marshall no RLM
Kansas no RLM
South Florida couldn't sustain any drives and kept turning it over; maybe DD dogs aren't the best for RLM? Just wondering. Seldom seen a team with so little punch as SFL.