RLM

[k3r3s]

I hope you guys didnt get scared off by the late line movement. Thanks for the early advice, it just backed up my gut feeling. SAINTS BABY. Im glad I found this place.

[Totolover1409]

4-1 today baby!! Enjoy the free money today guys!

[kingdom]

Great work.now im a believer

[BlindWeasel]

How many times do you see this phenomenon on any given Sunday? Is it a common occurrence?

[A's Fan]

has anyone backdated RLM over several seasons to see how its done?

[JFCvsRXB]

has anyone backdated RLM over several seasons to see how its done?

from what i've read, it is most profitable in NHL, college basketball, and college football. The win percentage is lower in NHL, but you come out ahead more unit-wise because you are betting the mL and mostly dogs.

I think the hit rate for NFL is somewhere between 56-58% if memory serves correctly. This weekend was definitely a good one for RLM backers.

[Miaggi]

Strong move in line with few bets made:
Bears from -1 to -2,5 with 72% public on Bills - I know 400 bets aren´t enought, but have eye on this match...

[Jiggy Fly]

This is very interesting and will be following this thread from here on out. Let me get this straight tho. For example, Let's say the Eagles open at -3 against the Cowboys. 80% of the public is on the Cowboys and the line moves to the Eagles -4. The play would be on the Eagles correct?

[Ras1112]

This is very interesting and will be following this thread from here on out. Let me get this straight tho. For example, Let's say the Eagles open at -3 against the Cowboys. 80% of the public is on the Cowboys and the line moves to the Eagles -4. The play would be on the Eagles correct?

In general yes, you got the concept Eagles will be the play.
However there are several things you should pay attention also, line history, # of bets, sudden change towards the game time, significant injuries, etc.
GL!

[Jiggy Fly]

In general yes, you got the concept Eagles will be the play. However there are several things you should pay attention also, line history, # of bets, sadden change towards the game time, significant injuries, etc. GL!

Sadden change? Please explain or did you mean sudden change?

[Johnny 55]

no, he meant sadden change, it is an insider term for those who play RLM games, I could tell you what it means, but only sharp money Vegas Insiders know its true meaning, sadden change is crazy powerful.

[TakeIt]

New Orleans clearly opened up @ +1 and stayed there for some time.
I believe that -1 NOR opening line @ Pinny that was posted is an incorrect line.

PINNACLE LINE MOVEMENTS

------------- Money Line --/-- Spread ----------------
Date -- Time -- Fav -- Dog --- Fav ------ Dog
24-Oct 8:42pm NOR XX PIT XX PIT-1 +100 NOR+1 -108
24-Oct 8:50pm NOR XX PIT XX PIT-1 +100 NOR+1 -108
24-Oct 9:06pm NOR XX PIT XX PIT-1 -102 NOR+1 -106
25-Oct 8:38am NOR XX PIT XX PIT-1 +100 NOR+1 -108
25-Oct 10:14am NOR XX PIT XX PIT-1 +100 NOR+1 -108
25-Oct 11:31am NOR XX PIT XX PIT-1 +101 NOR+1 -109
25-Oct 11:36am NOR XX PIT XX PIT-1 +102 NOR+1 -110
25-Oct 11:49am NOR XX PIT XX PIT-1 +100 NOR+1 -108
25-Oct 1:01pm NOR-109 PIT-101 PIT-1 +104 NOR+1 -113
25-Oct 4:32pm PIT-106 NOR-104 PIT-1 +101 NOR+1 -109
25-Oct 4:39pm NOR-108 PIT-102 PIT-1 +104 NOR+1 -113
25-Oct 5:37pm NOR-108 PIT-102 PIT-1 +102 NOR+1 -110
25-Oct 6:26pm NOR-108 PIT-102 PIT-1 +103 NOR+1 -111
25-Oct 8:26pm NOR-108 PIT-102 PIT-1 +103 NOR+1 -111
25-Oct 11:42pm NOR-106 PIT-104 PIT-1 +103 NOR+1 -111
25-Oct 11:59pm NOR-106 PIT-104 PIT-1 +107 NOR+1 -116
26-Oct 12:01am NOR-111 PIT+101 PIT-1 +107 NOR+1 -116
26-Oct 1:11am NOR-111 PIT+101 NOR-1 -106 PIT+1 -102

either that, or what you're posting is incorrect.

the fact that there are discrepancies doesn't make anything clear at all. in fact, it obfuscates the issue even more.

[LT Profits]

either that, or what you're posting is incorrect.

the fact that there are discrepancies doesn't make anything clear at all. in fact, it obfuscates the issue even more.

That's why you have to consistent and always use the same source and book. Personally, I always use Pinny openers from Sports Insights. It seems they may have missed the first tick in this game, but hey, shit happens.

The worst thing you can do is change in midstream because of something like this that probably happens 1% of the time.

[TakeIt]

That's why you have to consistent and always use the same source and book. Personally, I always use Pinny openers from Sports Insights. It seems they may have missed the first tick in this game, but hey, shit happens.

The worst thing you can do is change in midstream because of something like this that probably happens 1% of the time.

i agree with you. what this exercise has done for me is to make me wonder which site (book) is the most accurate. i've seen discrepancies like this before, so i have no idea who is more reliable.

like you say, it probably doesn't make any difference in the long run, but i am still curious.

in my opinion pregame is the worst, while sports insights and sbr are probably neck and neck for first--but i am leaning more toward sbr (as far as opening and closing lines are concerned).

[Ras1112]

We all looking to find the best thing around but longer I look more confusing it gets. So, as LT said you better stick with something as long as it works for you.
SBR & SportsInsights are good but sometimes show opposite trends, also SBR doesn't give you #bets placed.
Example, right now SBR has Canes (NHL) as a public favorites however in SInsights Flyers supposedly have 80%?!
Which is right or wrong it's our job to decide
BOL!

[JFCvsRXB]

i agree with you. what this exercise has done for me is to make me wonder which site (book) is the most accurate. i've seen discrepancies like this before, so i have no idea who is more reliable.

like you say, it probably doesn't make any difference in the long run, but i am still curious.

in my opinion pregame is the worst, while sports insights and sbr are probably neck and neck for first--but i am leaning more toward sbr (as far as opening and closing lines are concerned).

I agree, and do not trust the opening line numbers on pregame. Personally prefer sportsinsights, fwiw.

[TakeIt]

Example, right now SBR has Canes (NHL) as a public favorites however in SInsights Flyers supposedly have 80%?!
Which is right or wrong it's our job to decide
BOL!

i don't see your exact numbers (SI has the flyers at 69%, and sbr has them at 48%), but i get your point. however the answer to your question is that they are both correct. sports insights uses an average of multiple books (i have no idea which ones) and sbr just uses 5dimes.

now which is a better way to do things, i have no idea. 5dimes is a huge book, and might get more action than a lot of smaller books combined. yet, on the other hand, the average of a lot of the smaller books might be a better representation--who knows.

what i am waiting for is someone to publish the amount of money bet on each side--not the number of bets--now that would be revealing information.

[LT Profits]

sports insights and sbr are probably neck and neck for first--but i am leaning more toward sbr (as far as opening and closing lines are concerned).

Correct, but SI has the better betting percentages (remember, SBR is 5 Dimes only while SI has a lot of square books in its consensus, which is great) and SI gives you numbers of bets placed while SBR does not.

[LT Profits]

Looks like the two posts before me covered my points.

[JFCvsRXB]

what i am waiting for is someone to publish the amount of money bet on each side--not the number of bets--now that would be revealing information.

Question in regards to this...

"In theory", don't books normally look to get an even amount from each side? So if one side has 70 percent of the public on it, wouldn't it mean that the 30 percent side is just making larger wagers? I'm sure if a book is close to 100 percent certain on the outcome of a game they would hedge toward one side over another, but why risk it?

I'm fairly new to sportsbetting, so I don't really know. Someone feel free to enlighten me if I'm way off base here.

[Ras1112]

...what i am waiting for is someone to publish the amount of money bet on each side--not the number of bets--now that would be revealing information.

Sure that will help, however I don't see it as a big problem. When line moves in opposite to public consensus, for me this is an indication that there is more green on public dog isn't it?
P.S.
Seems like we made same point with SeaChicken fan
Hey man I'm in WA, so nice to see someone with that logo

[LT Profits]

what i am waiting for is someone to publish the amount of money bet on each side--not the number of bets--now that would be revealing information.

FALSE!

That would defeat the purpose of RLM. If you were given only the amount of money bet on each side, you would have no idea of knowing if it is public money or sharp money. By being given the number of bets, if there is RLM, you know that it is sharp money that causes it because it means more money is being bet across fewer bets on the sharp side.

[JFCvsRXB]

Hey man I'm in WA, so nice to see someone with that logo

Rough game yesterday. Thought we had our road woes straightened out a little...

[JFCvsRXB]

FALSE!

That would defeat the purpose of RLM. If you were given only the amount of money bet on each side, you would have no idea of knowing if it is public money or sharp money. By being given the number of bets, if there is RLM, you know that it is sharp money that causes it because it means more money is being bet across fewer bets on the sharp side.

[TakeIt]

Question in regards to this...

"In theory", don't books normally look to get an even amount from each side? So if one side has 70 percent of the public on it, wouldn't it mean that the 30 percent side is just making larger wagers?

basically true. that's why number of bets can be misleading. even though one side has 70% of the "public" bets it doesn't necessarily have 70% of the money.

I'm sure if a book is close to 100 percent certain on the outcome of a game they would hedge toward one side over another, but why risk it?

precisely. in my opinion, no one, not even a successful book, can be anywhere near 100% certain of anything. i don't believe the books are in the business of having opinions--others will vehemently disagree. if i was a book, i wouldn't be. i would just try to be as close to balanced as i could most of the time, and even if i have a 10% discrepancy i'm still in great shape.

but the books aren't always even close to being balanced. there are a lot of ways this could happen. one example is that one side gets hit with a lot of late money. they can keep moving the line, but it might not make a difference--everyone could still be betting the same side. so now they are clearly unbalanced, and they have to gamble.

this means a lot of the games are going to be off. they'll win some of the games that are unbalanced and lose some--but in spite of this, i still believe they come out ahead in the long haul--because they will win slightly more of their unbalanced games than they will lose.

just my opinions.

[TakeIt]

FALSE!

That would defeat the purpose of RLM. If you were given only the amount of money bet on each side, you would have no idea of knowing if it is public money or sharp money. By being given the number of bets, if there is RLM, you know that it is sharp money that causes it because it means more money is being bet across fewer bets on the sharp side.

what if you were given number of bets and amount of money bet?

[Ras1112]

Rough game yesterday. Thought we had our road woes straightened out a little...

I didn't expect much but they manage to beat my expectations. Atrocious performance and we played freaking Raiders?!

[LT Profits]

what if you were given number of bets and amount of money bet?

Amount of money is meaningless because lines move in the direction of the side with more money bet on it 99% of the time anyway, with the only exception being if there is late news regarding injury or weather.

Number of bets is more important for determining who sharps are on.

Besides, being given both number of bets and amount of money is like spoon-feeding people who the sharps are on, whereas not knowing the money bet and seeking out RLM requires a little bit of work and is thus more rewarding.

[DeluxeLiner]

lol LT... how much work is really involved other than tweaking your qualifications for RLM plays.

[BobbyXxX]

Whoop whoop

[alex81]

Any RLM observations for week 9?

[BobbyXxX]

Week 9 gettinh closer

[Totolover1409]

There are small half point movements but not enough for an RLM. Will keep looking gentlemen

[rsktkr]

According to Pregame, the only one that I'm seeing for this weekend as a possible is the Ravens. Opened at Balt -4 and jumped to -5 with 60% on Miami. Another game to watch is Philly. only a 1/2 point move so far.

That's if I'm grasping the gist of this system. Please post up if I'm wrong.

[EXhoosier10]

This isn't RLM, but I believe betting on favorites coming off of a bye has been pretty profitable over the years. This week there are quite a few teams who fit this criteria.