RLM

[dodger33]

Philly was the right play but I am not so sure we can say Dallas was... I think the oddsmakers were just smoking crack. Lets get them next week boys!

[yisman]

Philly screwed by refs.

Dallas was the wrong play, though. They quit before kickoff.

[Aussiecapper101]

I missed the Dallas play, thank god

[frognose20]

Wow. Dunno how we even thought that Kitna would keep this close. Sorry guys.

1-2 RLM.


Trust me, next week for NFL and NCAA will be much better. I will be more cautious with NCAA and play only those 1.5 movement

Why? isnt the 1 pt line moves making money also? we shouldnt be ignoring play unless they prove to be unprofitable.

[Blazermaniac]

I love all the enthusiasm and everyone trying to help each other out. But what you have to remember is that Vegas knows everyone is trying to find a system to beat them. RLM is a way but it's not always perfect because Vegas knows it.....plays a guessing...psychology game with you.....enticing and boils your gambling habit. One game will hit and another won't. So...each time you have to come up with filters. And by the end of the season....you break even. More chances or not you're on the negative side. This is why they call it gambling. And for those who try to make it rich....I can tell you from experience that....that is impossible. Sports gambling is for entertainment only. But best of luck to the rest of the season.

[h1holstrom]

Bad RLM yesterday: but it happens!

[doublej95]

Bad RLM yesterday: but it happens!

It was good for me 2-0-1.

[Nepaa]

it was 2-1 for me. not a bad day at all.

[EXhoosier10]

went big on dallas yesterday. Didn't think they could possibly play so bad on such a big stage. Ohhh well

[Dogway]

I had a question yesterday..does anyone pay for the "no delay" sportsinsight information. 20 minute delay with free numbers. Do you guys think I really even matters? Some numbers do change right at gametime. Hell I don't know just throwing another factor out there.

The Dog

[GoldenYAK]

Best advice I have heard if you decide to tail RLM in football is to never bet the shitty teams. Dallas definitely fit that criteria. This is different then not playing AGAINST the good teams. Thats why imo Cleveland was a good rlm play, but not dallas.

[doublej95]

I had a question yesterday..does anyone pay for the "no delay" sportsinsight information. 20 minute delay with free numbers. Do you guys think I really even matters? Some numbers do change right at gametime. Hell I don't know just throwing another factor out there.

The Dog

I use the free site and have been doing fine with it. Waste of 100 bucks a month in my opinion

[Ras1112]

From what I see record on RLM for yesterday NFL was 3-4. We can't just pick ones we like and declare that it's working. If there somebody knows what additional "rules" should be applied I would like to know that.

[jeeves]

Best advice I have heard if you decide to tail RLM in football is to never bet the shitty teams. Dallas definitely fit that criteria. This is different then not playing AGAINST the good teams. Thats why imo Cleveland was a good rlm play, but not dallas.

I agree with this. Didn't Carolina have some RLM, but I stayed far away from them

[doublej95]

Yeah a little knowledge of the teams help. It had 1 point of movement as did Philly and Atlanta, all losers yesterday. That was just late money coming in. The plays that had RLM on them all week did just fine.

[sharlataans]

From what I see record on RLM for yesterday NFL was 3-4. We can't just pick ones we like and declare that it's working. If there somebody knows what additional "rules" should be applied I would like to know that.

I am afraid there are no rules

[Ras1112]

Yeah a little knowledge of the teams help. It had 1 point of movement as did Philly and Atlanta, all losers yesterday. That was just late money coming in. The plays that had RLM on them all week did just fine.

JJ, what exactly is the difference between early money and late money if it still "sharp/smart" money?

[doublej95]

Sharp money moves the line soon after it comes out. Sharp money is the books best friend, books make it on the public.

[Ras1112]

I am afraid there are no rules

That is exactly my point, so there is no reason of arguing is RLM works or not
We know public is not gonna win long or even medium term. Betting on public dogs looks like good idea and everyone welcome to figure out the system that works for him/her. I just would like see ideas and not argue about the proof.
BOL!

[Ras1112]

Sharp money moves the line soon after it comes out. Sharp money is the books best friend, books make it on the public.

So, if public didn't move the line in 5 days why do u think money that came late and move the line were public money?

[JFCvsRXB]

I am convinced that the smart money/sharps get their money in early. They know which opening lines to take advantage of before the public has a chance to get in there.

Any late line movement is usually a book trying to persuade you one way or the other. Not necessarily smart money, but a higher influx of it.

[Ras1112]

I am convinced that the smart money/sharps get their money in early. They know which opening lines to take advantage of before the public has a chance to get in there.

Any late line movement is usually a book trying to persuade you one way or the other. Not necessarily smart money, but a higher influx of it.

Hey homie, good point make sense, only one problem if that is a true why then we wait till last minute to make decision on RLM? Which btw I never do, I prefer to get it as soon as I convinced it's moving.

[doublej95]

Ras, Jfc answered your question. Take pats game yesterday, line comes out and sharps hammer Cleveland ok books take sharp money serious so they leave the pats line down and it looks so tempting to the public. Getting the best team in the league at -3.5 or so looks great to people so they are going to hammer the pats. Ok 80 plus % on the pats and the books getting alot of money now. So the bring the line up a little just to hedge in case.

[doublej95]

Hey homie, good point make sense, only one problem if that is a true why then we wait till last minute to make decision on RLM? Which btw I never do, I prefer to get it as soon as I convinced it's moving.

Yep that's why I didn't bet Philly, Carolina and Atlanta yesterday.

[MrCondor]

I mentioned staying away from bad teams on Saturday in the NCAA RLM thread and was met with a stern reply from someone named Johnny55.

What I said was stay away from teams such as Army and bet only upper echelon teams like South Carolina. As it turns out, both of those teams got spanked, SC very hard considering they were at home and ranked in the top 20. Johnny went on to say that it is a system and you should bet every team/game that falls within the system regardless. I think that's insane. You have to choose wisely when betting, especially so with NCAA Football. For instance, a team like Army which runs the wishbone and primarily RUNS the ball, will not be able to play catch-up in the 4th quarter.

Funny though, Ga. Tech the other night was an RLM candidate and came from behind winning for all of us bettors. They run the wishbone, their starting QB completes less than 40% of his throws and he left the game injured after throwing a pick leaving us praying for his backup to deliver. He did and we all were relieved.

The difference is, Ga. Tech has many athletes on their team. Army's athletes are more heady leaders who play within a disciplined system. That's what they are all about, discipline. Some RLMs are not worthy, ie Dallas. I was all over Green Bay on Thursday when researching my plays for the weekend then began second guessing myself last night after reading the info in here but I abstained. Lucky for me. But how many were swayed into betting a pathetic team like Dallas last night mainly because of this system?

Don’t take me the wrong way I am not chastising anyone for trying something different in handicapping. It is definitely a good tool to use but you are setting yourselves up for heartache if you blindly follow a system.

Ironically this same member Johnny55 yesterday posted that the best plays were Cleveland and Dallas. I read that and scratched my head. Here was a guy who posted not 24 hours earlier that you should bet all RLMs no matter. He inferred that there are no better RLMs than others. They should all be perceived as equal because they are within a system.
I’ll keep reading here and using RLM as a handicapping tool but I have gambled long enough to realize that these systems do not last. They all peter out. I’ve been playing sports games since 1974. Can’t tell you how much $ I’ve lost betting systems.

[MrCondor]

I've lost 20 large since playing online beginning in 2004, most of it on College Football. Tried many systems. The best is taking dogs of 5 - 4 points. Preferably home dogs

[Ras1112]

Yep that's why I didn't bet Philly, Carolina and Atlanta yesterday.

What did u see? I did bet on Indy and NO yesterday btw

[doublej95]

What did u see? I did bet on Indy and NO yesterday btw

Late movement to make it 1 point RLM. I didn't think that late movement was not solid enough to make a play on it.

[Ras1112]

Late movement to make it 1 point RLM. I didn't think that late movement was not solid enough to make a play on it.

I wasn't talking about betting on late moves but on early moves and if u not betting on late move anyway than there is even less purpose of waiting late

[doublej95]

What did you mean? You got me confused

[Ras1112]

What did you mean? You got me confused

If sharp money come early and line changes (at least 1pts) to reflect these money than there is no reason to wait

[mangina11]

If sharp money come early and line changes (at least 1pts) to reflect these money than there is no reason to wait

So using this theory, we might want to jump on Uconn, as that line has already moved 1.5 points in the wrong direction.... PS i am jumping on it (yes i know this is the NFL RLM, but most of us use it for both)

[benjy]

Sharp money does not all come in early. This is a fallacy. Some certainly does but many sharps wait for various reasons (e.g. rosters, injuries, bankroll management, etc.).

I love this thread but wish that the value of point movements would be taken into account. A half-point move on/off the 3 in NFL is worth worth about double the full two-point move from 9.5 to 7.5

[JosephPavs]

On another note when RLM does not happen and 80% plus is on a side and the line does not move I like to bet against the public.... It has worked so far

[checkraise]

Smart money has been known to come in early to move the line for the purpose of coming back heavier on the other side later to get the better number or a middle. Early moves can be deceiving. Careful.