NFL week 1 trends to consider

[slacker00]

How did u know? Then if what I posted are all BAD trends please enlighten me with what you think are good trends.I do in fact own the book you are speaking of by Stanford Wong...great read!

Excellent! Then you absolutely must reread Chapter 7, Testing W-L records for significance. Seriously.

When you understand why I'm causing such a fuss, then skip ahead to chapters 12-17, which uses those ideas and outlines NFL specific trends and their justifications. I won't go into detail about the specifics since you already have the book, plus until you understand statistical significance, all I'd be doing is pointing out trends which you can't seem to distinguish as good or bad anyway.

Besides, I believe in the maxim, 'Give a man a fish and he eats for one day, teach a man to fish and he eats for a lifetime.'. If you can learn statistical significance, you'll be able to catch real fish (good trends) and stop starving while telling fishing stories about the 'one that got away' (bad trends).

[laxdjock]

Wong is definitely worth a read, regardless of this thread.

[Sidetracked]

nice find

[taxman]

Thanks for the positive feedback on the trend posting. If I can dig up any more I will post as soon as I get it. Can't wait for the Thursday kickoff.Will post my picks Friday night.

Good luck!

[Rich Boy]

Dont try to beat NFL spreads, dont even dream of it.

[taxman]

Dont try to beat NFL spreads, dont even dream of it.

Thanks richboy I feel into a deep sleep and pinched myself to wake up.....try and beat the books...you must be dreaming!!!

[pleasegod]

Never was a big trend guy myself but thanks.

[Flying Dutchman]

Every "trend" we drilled out over a span of 3 years was broken by the end of the next two. This includes some z-scores of 4+

[taxman]

NFL | MINNESOTA at NEW ORLEANS
Play Under - Road teams vs. the 1rst half total excellent offensive team from last season - scored 27 or more points/game, in conference games
40-15 since 1997. ( 72.7% | 23.5 units )


Another trend here for the Thursady nite game...something to consider and the play is UNDER in the first half.

[taxman]

Ravens look like a great play ...all the talk is about the Jets and the strongest team on both sides of the ball getting no headlines...except from the bettors..line down from 3 to 1.

[raiders32]

I think the Raiders will hang close to Tennesse and cover.

[Truth Be Told]

means nothing when the game starts

[Silverbullet]

good info which has me leaning towards Balt-Miami-San Fran-New England

[scottel]

just be careful using angle sand trends....u can find trends to back both sides of every NFL game each week.....not bashing just saying be careful and lots of sportsbooks post trends.........why? so avg bettors read it and bet that way, sportsbooks aren't giving out info to lose to us.

Houston off is loaded, of course indy no slouch but watch out for Texans on sunday....SU win will not surprise me

[taxman]

I think the Raiders will hang close to Tennesse and cover.

I concur with the Raida nation here...not expecting much from Oaktown on the road at Tenn...this is when they come up and bite you.I will take the Raiders and the points.

[Scorpion]

Well kickoff is almost here and I've got some interesting trends for week 1:

-All divisonal favorites of 3 points or less boast a 15-3 SU record and an amazing 14-3-1 ATS since 2000

(Miami, Indy, SF)
I LIKE SEATTLE, and HOUSTON


-When two winning teams from the prior year played in week 1 UNDER the total has gone 17-9 (65%) since 2003 (NE-Cinc)

How about Atlanta- Pitt? GB vs Philly? NYJ vs Bal?

Balt-Jets-Baltimore is 6-0 ATS in Sept games the last two seasons
I like NYJ
Balt secondary is missig key players

Cinc-NE-Cinc was 0-8 ATS as favorites last year but 7-2 ATS as underdogs
I LIKE CIN


SF-Seat- SF was 6-0 UNDER the total vs divisonal opponents last year
I LIKE THE UNDER, 2 defensive HCs


Good luck to everyone on a profitable 2010 NFL season!

.................

[tbaker67]

Just glad it is football season. Thanks for the info.

[regretz]

Well kickoff is almost here and I've got some interesting trends for week 1:

-All divisonal favorites of 3 points or less boast a 15-3 SU record and an amazing 14-3-1 ATS since 2000

(Miami, Indy, SF)

-Road underdogs of 3 1/2 points or more in divisional games in NFL's opening week are 7-21 SU but 19-9 ATS (68%) since 2000

(Det)

-When two winning teams from the prior year played in week 1 UNDER the total has gone 17-9 (65%) since 2003 (NE-Cinc)

Denv-Jack-Jacksonville is 0-10 ATS as a home favorite the last 2 seasons

Oakl-Tenn-Oakland has covered 5 of the last 6 vs Tenn and is 12-6 ATS on the roadvs confrence foes since 2006

Balt-Jets-Baltimore is 6-0 ATS in Sept games the last two seasons

Cinc-NE-Cinc was 0-8 ATS as favorites last year but 7-2 ATS as underdogs

Indy-Texans- Indy was 7-1 ATS on the road last year

SF-Seat- SF was 6-0 UNDER the total vs divisonal opponents last year


Good luck to everyone on a profitable 2010 NFL season!

good list

[taxman]

good list

Thanks man....wish you luck in week 1 of the season.

A thread I would suggest to check out is Kroyrunner...he won the Beat the Prick Contest last year and is one hell of a capper!

[BobHarvey]

just be careful using angle sand trends....u can find trends to back both sides of every NFL game each week.....not bashing just saying be careful and lots of sportsbooks post trends.........why? so avg bettors read it and bet that way, sportsbooks aren't giving out info to lose to us.

Houston off is loaded, of course indy no slouch but watch out for Texans on sunday....SU win will not surprise me

You're right on. If you look hard enough and long enough you'll find a trend to support ANY play on the board.

I'll use the Navy and Maryland game as an example. Bettors no doubt capped the hell out of that game and spent hours and hours looking it over. But it came down to turnovers and one guy from Maryland tackling one guy from Navy with lots of money changing hands on that one play!

So now we have a new trend: 'Maryland is 1-0 in games 'under' 50 points when decided by less than seven points when their linebacker makes a goal line stop of an opposing teams quarterback on the final play of the game"?

Most trends are meaningless.

[Chugs]

Good stuff, a lot of these back up some of my early leans.

[Scorpion]

I think not all trends all meaningless especially if the head coach is the same
You can throw away trends for a team if the HC has changed, I believe in trends certain HCs have set!

[marcoloco]

nice trends, thx for posting

[Scully]

Not sure why those who dislike trends have to stick their noses in where they don't belong. I mean why bother to comment in a thread related to something you dislike or avoid? Then again where would the world be without knitwhits like you I suppose.

Anyway moving on, Taxman I assume more teams could be added to some of the trends you mentioned as the week moves along and I guess some of this could depend on what site you're viewing the odds.
For example both Arizona and Dallas can now be added to the first trend along with SF, Indy and Miami, as I see both Dallas and Arizona at -3 at 5dimes today.

Great stuff as well I might add.

[taxman]

Not sure why those who dislike trends have to stick their noses in where they don't belong. I mean why bother to comment in a thread related to something you dislike or avoid? Then again where would the world be without knitwhits like you I suppose.

Anyway moving on, Taxman I assume more teams could be added to some of the trends you mentioned as the week moves along and I guess some of this could depend on what site you're viewing the odds.
For example both Arizona and Dallas can now be added to the first trend along with SF, Indy and Miami, as I see both Dallas and Arizona at -3 at 5dimes today.

Great stuff as well I might add.

Thanks Scully for the props...I wrote the thread early so Dallas and AZ were 3 1/2 and 4 respectively.I post the trends as a tool of many to use in handicapping this weeks games.

Good luck Scully

[hels]

Take the favs week 1. They always pull it off.

[dvsbmx]

Very weak trends backed with meaningless data. Toss this thread in the garbage except as novelty (joke) value. We might as well data mine some stats about coaches who have facial hair versus coaches who are cleanly shaven. I bet I could mine some data about coaches moustaches or beards with similar statistical significance as these trends presented.

This happens every year. Maybe I'm getting to be the forum grouch, but some noob comes in with some garbage data and thinks they are doing something but they'll be broke by week 3. Open some math books or just Wiki 'statistical significance'. We've got enough garbage threads between the fanboy drum beating and the adventures of JJGOLD's homoerotic prostitution. Garbage math is a broken crutch for people who can't asses an injury report or break down team matchups. Let's clean it up in here, eh?

So, statistics have no statistical significance? You should try the 'back' button once in a while, move on.

[taxman]

NFL | MINNESOTA at NEW ORLEANS
Play Under - Road teams vs. the 1rst half total excellent offensive team from last season - scored 27 or more points/game, in conference games
40-15 since 1997. ( 72.7% | 23.5 units )


Another trend here for the Thursady nite game...something to consider and the play is UNDER in the first half.

Got this one...

[taxman]

Time to get Sunday picks out there good luck everyone...


SF -3 -BEST BET

Det +6 1/2- 2 units

Balt +2- 2 units

UNDER 36 Jets/Balt -2 units

[taxman]

NFL | GREEN BAY at PHILADELPHIA
Play Under - Road teams vs. the 1rst half total excellent offensive team from last season - scored 27 or more points/game, in conference games
41-15 since 1997. ( 73.2% | 24.5 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 1.0 units )


NO / Minn- game hit the UNDER for the 1st half....play it again

[Lexis]

Is this total play for half-time or full-time?

[taxman]

Is this total play for half-time or full-time?

Lexis this is a play on the 1st half only...I played it at Bookmaker at UNDER 24 .

[Jones10]

Good work

[taxman]

Good work

Thanks man...good luck to you this week.

[Spooner]

good stuff