NFL week 1 trends to consider

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  • taxman
    SBR High Roller
    • 09-11-07
    • 182

    #71
    San Diego Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs

    This game is a classic example of the "reverse line movement" that we look for, a key indicator of the existence of "smart money." Including teasers and parlays, the visiting Chargers are collecting 80% of all bets. Even with an overwhelming number of bets landing on the Chargers, the line moved in the opposite direction than we would expect. The line opened at the Chiefs +5.5 (+ 6 at CRIS) -- and has actually declined to Chiefs +4.5 (even with most bets on the Chargers!). This typically means that some heavy hitters (and often "big, smart money") are taking the side opposite the public and hitting the sportsbooks hard enough to overwhelm the 80% public bettors -- and create the "reverse line movement."
    Comment
    • Joepbj
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 11-11-09
      • 507

      #72
      Week 1 take every under and you'll profit.
      Comment
      • Lexis
        SBR Wise Guy
        • 09-05-06
        • 608

        #73
        SD/KC under 45

        Any opinion? KC: Under is 16-1-2 ATS in their last 19 home openers since 1991
        Comment
        • rossta4i
          SBR Sharp
          • 08-13-08
          • 342

          #74
          The only trend I'll follow in week 1 is the losing team of the superbowl the previous year never covered in the 1st game since 2003.
          Comment
          • slacker00
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 10-06-05
            • 12262

            #75
            Originally posted by dvsbmx
            So, statistics have no statistical significance? You should try the 'back' button once in a while, move on.
            Did you even read anything that I've written, ever?
            Comment
            • taxman
              SBR High Roller
              • 09-11-07
              • 182

              #76
              Ok it's a half hour to kickoff...GL on a profitable Sunday!
              Comment
              • taxman
                SBR High Roller
                • 09-11-07
                • 182

                #77
                Originally posted by taxman
                NFL | GREEN BAY at PHILADELPHIA
                Play Under - Road teams vs. the 1rst half total excellent offensive team from last season - scored 27 or more points/game, in conference games
                41-15 since 1997. ( 73.2% | 24.5 units )
                1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 1.0 units )


                NO / Minn- game hit the UNDER for the 1st half....play it again

                Got it again...2-0 so far this year...another one that was way UNDER
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                • taxman
                  SBR High Roller
                  • 09-11-07
                  • 182

                  #78
                  Originally posted by taxman
                  Time to get Sunday picks out there good luck everyone...


                  SF -3 -BEST BET

                  Det +6 1/2- 2 units

                  Balt +2- 2 units

                  UNDER 36 Jets/Balt -2 units

                  Well 1-1 going into tonite....not bad.Hoping to cash in on the Ravens and the UNDER.

                  Good luck to everyone
                  Comment
                  • taxman
                    SBR High Roller
                    • 09-11-07
                    • 182

                    #79
                    Originally posted by taxman
                    Well 1-1 going into tonite....not bad.Hoping to cash in on the Ravens and the UNDER.

                    Good luck to everyone
                    The UNDER is $$$...hoping Balt can hang tough for me and I got a 3-1 week...
                    Comment
                    • taxman
                      SBR High Roller
                      • 09-11-07
                      • 182

                      #80
                      Originally posted by taxman
                      Time to get Sunday picks out there good luck everyone...


                      SF -3 -BEST BET

                      Det +6 1/2- 2 units

                      Balt +2- 2 units

                      UNDER 36 Jets/Balt -2 units

                      Very happy with the 3-1 week with the Niners throwing in a real stinker in week 1.

                      Look forward to picking some more winners in week 2.

                      NFL 3-1 ATS
                      Comment
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