Kroyrunner's Season Long NFL Thread (55-30-1 ATS in 2009)

[kroyrunner89]

What games are you 6-1 on?

check my systems plays thread, pending is gb and the under

[simonk83]

check my systems plays thread, pending is gb and the under

Well in this case I hope it's wrong, as I'm on the Vikings Aside from that, sounds promising. Any plans to switch over to that if it keeps performing?

[gushman]

Dear Kroy,
if you would not play your unders you would find your winning percentage to be much higher. Even bad teams and Teams with good defenses usually put up a decent amount of points making the under loose. In fact games with end up under 35 are actauly fairly rare and in the long run money will be lost betting on such games. Good luck on the rest of the season
BR

You bring up some valid points BR. The unders are losing at an alarming rate this year. You would think that the books would adjust to this occurrence but it appears that they have not. Kudos for this insightful observation.

Dave G

[kroyrunner89]

Unders are KILLING me this year, you're right. I'm done with them for a while til I see something either in my system or in the games to indicate I should do otherwise.

[HauntingTheHoly]

If I'd blindly bet the over on every game every week, I'd be dominating. Maybe it's not too late to start.

[HauntingTheHoly]

They turned the ball over twice deep in their own territory, take one of those away the side cashes. Take both away both bets cash. I know we came out on the losing side again but nothing you can do about bad luck, my reads were on this week for the most part and I have no regrets, we've got good things ahead

Or just let what actually happened happen but assume the refs do their jobs correctly and give the dolphins the ball on the 20 after Ben's fumble into the endzone. Oh wait, you're not-so-brilliant response to that is "Normally Ben wouldn't do that, should've been a TD. I called it correctly!"

Wow, Kroy. How embarrassing.

[bobbyk1133]

Or just let what actually happened happen but assume the refs do their jobs correctly and give the dolphins the ball on the 20 after Ben's fumble into the endzone. Oh wait, you're not-so-brilliant response to that is "Normally Ben wouldn't do that, should've been a TD. I called it correctly!" Wow, Kroy. How embarrassing.

His spin-doctoring is getting pretty laughable. I don't think I've seen him mention positive variance one single time this season for any of his wins. In his system there is no such thing.

[Smogs]

Kroy, i'm on your email list, can you send the system plays with the emailed plays please?

And good luck turning it around, it'll come next week

[clbonham2]

yeah, betting over seems good to me too.

[wquine]

most unpredictable year ever?

[ssk13809]

Honestly, over/unders are the worst things to bet in sports. They are the most unpredictable and the teams you bet on don't give a sh*t about the over/unders either. Making things even more unpredictable and basically a guessing game.

[hitman2010]

Honestly, over/unders are the worst things to bet in sports. They are the most unpredictable and the teams you bet on don't give a sh*t about the over/unders either. Making things even more unpredictable and basically a guessing game.

After trying a few times, I thinking the same way.

[EXhoosier10]

Honestly, over/unders are the worst things to bet in sports. They are the most unpredictable and the teams you bet on don't give a sh*t about the over/unders either. Making things even more unpredictable and basically a guessing game.

isn't that your opinion on betting against spreads as well?

[22dsnyd22]

Rough Luck. Nice work on other system plays

[hitman2010]

nice works Kroy.

[ssk13809]

isn't that your opinion on betting against spreads as well?

Except its less unpredictable. At least teams are headed towards whatever the spread implies. Their goal may not to be to win by 10, but their goal is to at least win. So they at least have some of the same goals as the bettor. Under/over is a whole different story.

[phillybadboy]

nice works Kroy.

what are you talking about?

[tonyp0387]

Cmon dude. Hope you realize most cappers have a handful, even dozens of "trial systems" they test out each season right? Some even have in the hundreds. Don't get too excited over one week. You still haven't explained to me where PIT had an advantage in today's game. Stick a fork in this thread. This season is a write-off.

Lol why just fade his ass it has been money all year!!!!!!!!!!!!!!lol a systems first week at 6-1 what a joke. Should have been an 0-3 week sf was covering most of the game if he had sf he would be crying about how unlucky he was wah wah. Kroy must be a 21 year old college kid who thinks he knows it all or something.

[bobbyk1133]

Lol why just fade his ass it has been money all year!!!!!!!!!!!!!!lol a systems first week at 6-1 what a joke. Should have been an 0-3 week sf was covering most of the game if he had sf he would be crying about how unlucky he was wah wah. Kroy must be a 21 year old college kid who thinks he knows it all or something.

It's ok to rationalize some losses because it happens to everybody. When they do it every week for every game you know they've jumped the shark. He tried to say he was on the right side of the PIT game this week and if you take away the turnovers they would have covered. Of course he conveniently leaves out the Ben fumble that was handed right back to them for 3 easy points. I'm sure he has enough "systems" to keep turning to every time another one fails.

[Indecent]

Except its less unpredictable. At least teams are headed towards whatever the spread implies. Their goal may not to be to win by 10, but their goal is to at least win. So they at least have some of the same goals as the bettor.

Anytime either team scores (assuming they aren't already over the total), they are heading towards the game total and their individual team total. Their goal may not to hit their team total or the game total, but their goal is to put up points.

[phillybadboy]

don;t quit this thread kroy, i wana see your ats record for this 17 week season 2010

[Smogs]

don;t quit this thread kroy, i wana see your ats record for this 17 week season 2010

There will come a point where he'll go 20-5 in picks, i think it starts now

[G's pks]

don;t quit this thread kroy, i wana see your ats record for this 17 week season 2010

Sounds like another bad week... What can you do? Well maybe stop with the over/under crap if you cannot cap them correctly...focus on one or two games until you start getting it right...

Having a losing thread and continuing on takes some guts... You can turn it around...think one game at a time good luck. You should not be offended by those that come in and bash you... If you have a thread and it wins people will come in and bash so when you lose it should be no surprise... All you can do is change up what you are doing...

[BetterBizness]

Keep working hard Kroy.. take a week off if need be, easier said then done I know...

[kroyrunner89]

Once again thanks to all who have posted kind words so far despite my struggles, tough times indeed but they can't last forever! Here's Week 8:

• Detroit Lions -3

The Lions finally return starting QB Matthew Stafford this week, a great benefit to what is already one of the highest scoring teams in the NFC. RB Jahvid Best has taken full advantage of the bye week to get healthy, and this offense looks ready to explode against a very mediocre Washington defense. While Hall had the game of his life last week against Cutler with four interceptions, he remains one of the weakest cornerbacks in the NFL and will likely be exposed once again this week. Statistically, the Lions really don't look like anything special on offense. They're well below average in yards per pass attempt and yards per rush attempt, yet they still find ways to keep the chains moving and put points up on the scoreboard. The Redskins are ranked 23rd against the pass and 29th against the run, and I think the Detroit offense will have no problem at all taking advantage of this weak unit coming off of a bye week. The Redskins offense is nothing special at all as they're average at both passing and rushing the ball, while also the 8th worst team in the NFL in scoring efficiency. Look for the Detroit defense to get a couple more stops than Washington, as the Lions take this game by at least a touchdown.

• Seattle Seahawks +2.5
• Seattle/Oakland UNDER 42.5

The Raiders exploded for 59 points in 3 quarters last week against the Broncos, an impressive showing despite the fact that it is the Broncos. Unfortunately for Oakland, Seattle boasts a much better defense than Denver. Seattle enters this game playing at a very high level, as they are 10th against the pass and 2nd against the run. Oakland's superb performance last week came mostly from the running game, and while Oakland ranks 5th in yards per rush attempt this season Seattle's run defense should definitely keep them fairly contained. With pressure swinging back to Oakland's passing game, which is 5th worst in the NFL, Seattle should have no problem limiting the amount of damage Oakland can do on offense. On the offensive side of the ball, Seattle hasn't been spectacular themselves. Seattle is the 4th worst passing team and 7th worst rushing team in the NFL, although the majority of those rushing stats are without newly acquired RB Marshawn Lynch. While both teams have similarly poor offenses, the edge I see for Seattle is that they're matched up against a clearly inferior defense. Oakland is ranked 18th against the pass and 31st against the run, assuming the Seahawks aren't down by 21 points as fast as the Broncos were last week they'll be able to come at Oakland all game with a balanced attack. I think this is the week Seattle's running game gets on track and they put together a couple nice drives. Ultimately though, I see Seattle's defense being the swinging point in this contest as the Seahawks win a low scoring game outright.

• Carolina/St. Louis UNDER 37

While unders have been hitting at a terrible clip this season and it pains me to keep picking them, this week there are some seriously inflated totals and this is one of them. This game has all the setups to be low scoring. For starters, we have two underrated defenses going against two struggling offenses. The Panthers finally returned QB Matt Moore to the lineup last week and put up a season high 23 points against the 49ers, given the low level the 49ers' defense has been playing at so far this year though I'd be surprised to see them top 20 points again in this one, or even reach that mark. RB Deangelo Williams will likely be sitting this game out, a blow to the offense because backup Jonathan Stewart has been playing at a very low level so far this year, only running for 3.0 yards per carry. The passing offense ranks 30th in yards per pass attempt, even if you only consider weeks in which Moore started that number stays the same. St. Louis has made big strides on defense this season, as they rank 5th in yards per pass attempt allowed and 23rd in yards per rush attempt allowed. While their rush defense still has a ways to go, with no Deangelo Williams this week Carolina is going to have trouble exploiting that. As for the Rams' offense, their passing game has been nothing special all year as they're ranked 31st in the NFL in yards per pass attempt. Carolina's pass defense is slightly above average ranking 13th, but their real strength is stopping the run as they're 6th in yards per rush attempt allowed. The Rams have only been running for 3.84 yards per carry this season, 23rd in the NFL. The Panthers should keep RB Steven Jackson bottled up fairly well, along with the entire St. Louis offense. The only threat to this under is multiple turnovers by each QB in their own territory, I'm willing to take this risk as even then I think it'll take a few for this total to go over. Total points could very well stay in the 20s in this game as I love this total to stay under.


That's all for Sunday, I'm strongly considering a Monday Night pick and will make my decision tomorrow. Good luck to everyone this week!

[Sidetracked]

Unders are KILLING me this year, you're right. I'm done with them for a while til I see something either in my system or in the games to indicate I should do otherwise.

and then he comes out with 2 unders this week

[kroyrunner89]

and then he comes out with 2 unders this week

I know, being disciplined can be a bitch

[RJ89]

GL, this week Kroy.. I really like the Lions pick..

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

Like your Seahawks pick Best of luck, turn it around!

[bobbyk1133]

CAR and SEA run D isn't as good as your stat book says it is.

Food for thought.

[Joe Dogs]

Give em hell Kroy....

[peeteer]

Good luck, kroy. I hope these Unders will cash tonight.

[udlock4life]

bol man

[EXhoosier10]

lets turn it on this week kroy. you deserve some good luck eventually

[alukk]

Good luck today Kroy.