Hey - I know you always say a few point difference does not matter but it seems the books have changed the line quickly on the Eagles - Bengals matchup. I just looked at my book and the over/under is at 37! Still playable in your opinion?
-
Comment -
It sure is CCBOriginally posted by CindyCryBaby
Comment -
Jeez man, I can´t wait until thursday night football. Even though it´s just like 33 hours or so away, it seems like forever!Comment -
Hey sportspick, As an Atlanta boy I would hate to bet against my falcons but that line of -2.5 against the pats looks real tempting.....what is your thoughts?Comment -
ThanksComment -
@Sports...sure that's fine, just because I would play a parlay a week with the three most probable wins in your opinion for a small unit, just to keep things interestingComment -
Absolutely Cindy!Originally posted by CindyCryBaby
Comment -
Thanks for your confirmation!Originally posted by The J-DizzleIt sure is CCB
Comment -
Friday for me, I have no plays for Thursday...BOLOriginally posted by FlaxMartin
I would lean to Atlanta but no play for muah.Originally posted by tmgissy
Originally posted by JR007
I would hate to give out parlays for you and then others end up losing money on them if they lose.Originally posted by DJStrokeComment -
The lines changing alot are they still worth to play?Comment -
Information moved to post #579Comment -
All i can say is I recommend the plays with the lines I posted. Do not put to much concern regarding the line move with the game totals. regarding the games versus the spread try to stay on the right side of the key numbers, 3 and 7 depending on if we are playing the dog or the fav. Read my response to william's post below:Originally posted by phillydon215
Quote:
Originally Posted by WlliamWlliam
Philadelphia @ Cincinati OVER 35.5, -110 / over37
Green Bay @ Seattle OVER 38.5, -110 / over39
Minnesota +3.5, -110 @ San Francisco / +3
last 2 are small differences I know but I've been burned by blindly following in nba with only small differences
The 2 totals are still plays. Let me talk about the Minny game a little more for you. There are 2 key numbers with wagering on the NFL, 3 and 7. If you play the favorite you look for lines that are -2.5 or lower and 6.5 and lower. If you play the underdog you look for lines that are -3.5 or higher and -7.5 or higher. In this case I like the Vikings to win the game straight up and since your line is .5 below the key number for our requirement for a underdog play all that means is if the game ends in a FG loss for the Vikes the play results in a push for you instead of a win if you were to get the 3.5..
Your options are either to buy the .5 or just play the game with the +3. As I already stated I like the Vikings to win the game straight up so i would say the game is still a play @ +3.Comment -
Information moved to post #579Comment -
Thank you for write up. Always eager to learn something new, especially since I'm new to NFL betting.
Comment -
No problem, I will have them all completed shortly.Originally posted by mizantropThank you for write up. Always eager to learn something new, especially since I'm new to NFL betting.Comment -
Books do not want to come off key numbers for the fear of being "sided" or' middled"...there are also teaser ramifications..crossing key numbers as well.....Comment -
also are" key" number totals as well......Comment -
"THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN PRESEASON
AND REGULAR SEASON HANDICAPPING
The lines are now up in the NFL not only for this Sunday's Hall of Fame Game matching Dallas and Cincinnati, but for the first full week as well. You've probably been studying them already, trying to pick out your favorite sides and totals. Let me offer some quick guidelines before you get too far along in the process.
*Every preseason game starts out as basically 'Host by 2 and 33.' Lines are condensed because these are exhibitions instead of full games. Home field isn't given a full three points. Some sharps would tell you 1.5 or even 1 is better than 2 for home field. But, oddsmakers know the public gives more weight than that to home field, so it's generally about 2 points as a general rule. Some oddsmakers will use 3 if it's a public team with an explosive offense that's playing at home. The last thing sportsbooks want is to get one-sided on a preseason game...and that can happen if a respected home team is laying a number the public thinks instinctively is too low. Also, realize that if oddsmakers made every line 'Host by 3,' sharps would pound every road underdog because of that key number.
*Any move off the 2 and 33 are based on well known tendencies of teams from past preseasons. Coaches who generally care about results will see the line move against them. Coaches who don't worry at all about results will go the other way. For example, Indianapolis puts very little weight on preseason results. They're actually a home underdog in their opener against San Francisco.
*High profile talent acquisitions will influence lines as well. People assume the first team will want to emphasize the new personnel right away. Cincinnati is a 3-point favorite this Sunday Night vs. Dallas on a neutral field partly because many bettors think Terrell Owens and Chad Ochocinco will be motivated to put on an early show on TV. That may or may not happen once the game is underway. Nevada lines are based on expectations.
Donovan McNabb and the Washington Redskins are -3 in their home opener vs. Buffalo instead of -2. New big name quarterback. New big name coach. Higher line.
In terms of the numbers you're seeing now, those are the main influences. Preseason action has become notable for game day steam from sharp bettors (professional wagerers). Whenever a line moves 1-2 points on the afternoon of a Preseason game, it can usually be traced to a sharp betting that one backup QB will dominate the other in the second half. The opening lines that go up from oddsmakers tend not to involve backups, unless there's a very clear tendency from past seasons with a particular team, coach, or rotation.
So, if you're the type of handicapper who likes to study backups, get your work done early! You'll probably be in line with the sharps, and you don't want to take the worst of it after a line move because you waited too long.
Here are the mistakes that squares (the general public) tend to make:
*They bet too many favorites (like always)
*They bet too many home teams (like always)
*They bet too many playoff teams from last year
*They bet too many Overs
*They bet the TV games even if they don't have an opinion
*They bet too many trends they heard about from past years even if those trends don't apply any more
*They bet more than they should given the relative coin flip nature of Preseason games "Comment -
Good luck this week everyone and below are my write-ups and my handicapping style for the NFL pre-season. I hope this posts give you clarity with the plays and is informative on what I look for in handicapping NFL pre-season games.
Here are a few insights with regards to wagering pre-season NFL Football:
The biggest mistake alot of people make with regards to wagering on the pre-season is they wager using the same methods and techniques as if they were wagering on the regular season. So, first you must understand that you are wagering on exhibition games and not the regular season and as I have stated in previous posts they are two totally different animals.
Second you may have seen me post write-ups which include a certain coach and their teams's prior pre-season record and team preformance. The coach dictates the level of talent he will put on the field, the coach dictates whether or not his team will focus more on the rush/pass and the coach is more likely to focus on his team's weakness rather than their strength. For example I played the over in the Jacksonville/Philadelphia game in week #1 of the pre-season and in my game write-up i mentioned Jacksonville usually uses this time of year to really work on their passing game and as a result they had 34 pass attempts with only 9 rush attempts and the game total finished OVER the posted total.
Statistics are used in a different way during handicapping in the pre-season compared to the regular season. If a team has had a poor pass defense in the past during the regular season they are more likely to rotate alot of defensive players to find the right mix to get ready for the regular season and it is the same for the their rushing defense. Each team's goal is to work on their weaknesses to get better and more efficient in those areas for preparation for the regular season. This leads me to my next point of emphasis and why QB rotations are also very important.
A team with two good Quarterbacks will both be given more playing time by their respective coaches and the purpose is to find a starter for the regular season. Teams with a no quarterback controversy are more likely to not use their starter as much and utilize their backups more and this is the reason the Indianapolis Colts historically have played poorly in the pre-season. I do not think any of their backup Quarterbacks are threatening Mr. Mannings starting job. If these teams that are playing their top two quarterbacks who are fighting for the starting role play against a historically good defense such as the Ravens or Steelers they will likely be playing against that particular teams reserve defense while they rest their starting defense to avoid risking injury.
Third, a team with bad offensive and defensive lines in the past are more likely to rotate alot of players at that position to try to find a core of talent to prepare for the regular season.
Finally, my pre-season handicapping includes more emphasis on past team trends/coaching trends rather than team and individual/team statistics which, in the regular season those areas are reversed and I put more emphasis on Individual/team statistics rather than team trends/coaching trends. This is why I include several trends with my pre-season write-ups and this is why i have more pre-season plays than I do in the regular season.
______________________________
Final Plays for week ending 08/23/2010. For what its worth after week #1 the pre-season overall record is 10-3 (Totals:6-0; Sides:4-3)
Summary of Plays and write-ups for week #2.
08/08/2010
Cincinati @ Dallas +3, -120
08/12/2010
Carolina @ Baltimore UNDER 34, -110
Oakland +4, -115 @ Dallas
08/13/2010
Jacksonville +3, -110 @ Philadelphia
Jacksonville @ Philadelphia OVER 33.5, -110
Kansas City @ Atlanta -3, -110
08/14/2010
Detroit @ Pittsburgh UNDER 34, -110
Houston PK @ Arizona
Minnesota @ St. Louis PK
Cleveland @ Green Bay OVER 34, -110
Chicago @ San Diego OVER 33.5, -110
Tennessee @ Seattle -3, -110
08/16/2010
NY Giants @ NY Jets OVER 32
08/20/2010
Philadelphia @ Cincinati OVER 35.5, -110
Cincinati will have no problem scoring in this game just as they did in their last game. Palmer will get plenty of opportunity to toss some balls to newely aquired T. Owens. Ocho Cinco should get more passes thrown his way this week compared to the one pass reception he registered in their last game versus the Bronco's. Historically in the pre-season the Eagles do not put much emphasis on winning but they have had no problem scoring as their last 8 pre-season games have gone OVER the posted total and I look for that to continue here.
08/21/2010
Baltimore @ Washington UNDER 38.5, -110
The Redskins had no problem scoring last week versus the Bills but their fortunes will change this week versus the Ravens. In their last game the Ravens held the Panthers to just 12 points while scoring only 17 points themselves. Since J. Harbaugh's arival in Baltimore the under is 7-2 the past 9 games and 15-5 in the Ravens last 20 pre-season games. Last week the Ravens rushed the ball 27 times compared to only 15 pass completions. In comparison Last week the Redskins rushed the ball 47 times compared to 18 pass cpmpletions. The Redskins score was inflated due to 3 Bills tournovers, dominating the time of possession and compliling a 4-4 scoring ratio in the red zone. Those numbers wont be that dominating versus a real good Ravens defense.
Pittsburgh @ NY Giants UNDER 36, -110
Last week the Steelers held the Lions scorless for three out of four quarters with the Lions sole touchdown in the 2nd quarter. The Steelers rushed the ball 35 times keeping to their strength while holding the Lions to 79 yards on the ground and 3.3 yards per rush. The Giants may be without their quarterback Eli Manning which will really hurt their offensive production. In the Steelers last 18 pre-season games 16 have gone UNDER the posted total. In a 7 game stretch the past two years the under has gone UNDER the total in all 7 games.
Miami @ Jacksonville OVER 36, -110
Miami +2, -110 @ Jacksonville
Miami only mustered 10 points last week versus the Bucs but that should change this week facing a Jags defense that gave up 28 points to the Eagles last week. Miami was limited on offense last week due to being dominated by time of possession only holding the ball for 24 minutes. This should change this week as the Dolphins will face off against a Jags team that should focus more on the pass than the rush providing the Dolphins more offensive opportunities. In the Jags last 21 pre-season games 15 have gone OVER the posted total. In contrast the Dolphins were 4-0 straight up last season in four exibition games they are 8-1 straight up in their last 9.
Kansas City @ Tampa Bay -2.5, -110
Tampa Bay lost last week scoring just 7 points versus the Dolphins but that should change this when they face a Kansas City team that is a abismal 1-12 ATS in their last 13 pre-season games dating back over 3 years. Quite simply I will fade the Chiefs this pre-season until they prove otherwise.
Houston @ New Orleans OVER 40.5, -110
Both the Saints and Texans played to the OVER in their pre-season games last week. This game will not be a defensive struggle but rather we should see the ball flying all over the field. Last season these two teams met in the pre-season and they combined for 52 points and this game should be no different. In the Texan's last 13 pre-season games 10 have gone OVER the total. Last week both teams combined for 72 pass attempts in their respective games and if that is consistent of what will happen this week this game will have no problem going over the posted total.
Oakland @ Chicago OVER 34.5, -110
The Radiers scored 17 points last week and they face off this week against a Bears defense that gave up over 330 total yards to the Chargers. The Raiders on the other hand will be facing a Bear offense that historically has not had a problem putting points on the board in exhibition play. In exhibition weeks 1-3 the Bears have seen the total go OVER in 10 of their last 13 games covering a 3 1/2 year span.
Green Bay @ Seattle OVER 38.5, -110
Last week we played the Green Bay/Cleveland OVER and the play was a winner at the half. The over is 13-4 in the Packers last 17 pre-season games and with their wide open game play in the pre-season the past few years we should see more of the same. These two teams combined for 72 pass attempts last week almost 500 yards in the air. This game should easily reach a game total in the mid to high 40's.
08/22/2010
Minnesota +3.5, -110 @ San Francisco
Well Favre is back and if he sees action this week it will do nothing but help our play on the Vikings. I believed the Vikings would win this game straight up versus the 49ers when I posted the play and with Favre, even though he will see limited action if he plays, that has not changed. This is a good spot for Minnesota as they have not lost in week #2 of the pre-season since 2005. The Vikings were very impressive last week putting up 28 points on the board albeit it was versus the Rams. The 49ers also put points on the board last week but this week it will be against a stingy Vikes defense, not the porous defense they saw last week in the Colts.Comment -
Great work
I don't have a lot of points but you deserve them !Comment -
Thank you!Originally posted by ChillGreat work
I don't have a lot of points but you deserve them !Comment -
Thanks for the welcome saints7011. Where y'at? and SportsPicks3434- keep up the good work, looking forward to the weekend...Comment -
Originally posted by btfoz
Comment -
Now i'm with you ob all plays, the best of luck to us man!Comment -
BOL bud!Originally posted by knugenComment -
Wow alot of Saints fans on here. Anyway, I'm new to the site and found this thread. I'm following you all the way and I'll give you whatever SBR points I get.Comment -
Thanks in advance and welcome to the SBR forum. Best sports forum on the net.Originally posted by Saintsfan1Comment -
Thank You fellas!
Saintsfan1 gave SportsPicks3434 8 SBR Point(s) for this post.
Chill gave SportsPicks3434 6 SBR Point(s) for this post.
MEATHEAD gave SportsPicks3434 3 SBR Point(s) for this post.
LuckyBeans gave SportsPicks3434 5 SBR Point(s) for this post.
mizantrop gave SportsPicks3434 4 SBR Point(s) for this post.
Mike9999 gave SportsPicks3434 5 SBR Point(s) for this post.
Comment -
nice post sportspicks. btw, I like the new avatar, can't wait for football season to startComment -
Thanks, I needed a new face for Football season.Originally posted by Mike9999
Comment -
thanks for the right-ups sp , threw you a few pointsComment -
I'm also refarding a few guys your way...
Comment -
Love the write-ups as it helps me pick my spots better.
You REALLY know your preseason stuff.
Comment -
Hey sportspicks3434
I just found you, love football, and like your style and insight! You may have already posted this but what was your NFL record last year? Found your NCAA, but lots of pages on this thread, sorry for asking if you already posted.
BOL to everyone following 3434!Comment -
I found your win percent on page 8.Comment
