Originally posted by fly fisher
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nice hit on GB DEX!!!!!!!!
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Packers!Comment -
i dont care if they are playing the steelers, jets or the afc pro bowl team....GB all day for 10-20x....Originally posted by mlb
its all about that defense...Comment -
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fkin steel curtain....end this shit now mendenhallComment -
pitt should take a time out here to give their defense a rest
i cant believe pitt threw on 3rd down...i would have ran and given the jets 1 minute instead of 2...ballsyComment -
Week 20: 3-1 (+14.8 units)Originally posted by Dexter
YTD: 97-92 (+.8 units)Comment -
next week is the pro bowl....i may go heavy on the over being that 2 of the best defensive teams (pitt/gb) will not have their stars in that game....Comment -
Dex I just want to say great big "CONGRATULATIONS" to you. I only too GB today and didn't tail the Pitt play (my wife's favorite team). She is laughing at me right now for not taking Pittsburgh.
Anyways, you had an amazing day in football today and I just want to be the first to tell you congratulations. Nicely done. I we were side by side I would buy you a beer right now.
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thx fly....still got 2 more games to go to end this season right.Originally posted by fly fisherDex I just want to say great big "CONGRATULATIONS" to you. I only too GB today and didn't tail the Pitt play (my wife's favorite team). She is laughing at me right now for not taking Pittsburgh.
Anyways, you had an amazing day in football today and I just want to be the first to tell you congratulations. Nicely done. I we were side by side I would buy you a beer right now.
last year i blew up in the playoffs to finish negative in the nfl....i want my cash + season....
now lets go finish this nuggets game...
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Superbowl XLV - Sunday 2/6/2011
(20x) Packers -140
*writeup coming next weekComment -
Originally posted by Dexter
That is who I like. I can't put my bet in til tomorrow, but I definitely will. I can't go 20x, but I can go 4-5x, which is big for me. well if I can win more than I lose in NBA, then I can add to that.
Let's have a great next two weeks and win big come superbowl sunday.Comment -
(3x) under packers 45Originally posted by DexterComment -
(5x) over nfc/afc 62.5_two of the best defenses (GB/Pitt) will not have their stars in the pro bowl. high number, but this should be a shootout.Comment -
i love GB myself good luck broComment -
thx - looking around sbr, it seems many people have also sided with the packers, but their plays were made well after i posted and booked mine....Originally posted by Crazygamble
gotta love collaboration
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Originally posted by Dexterthx - looking around sbr, it seems many people have also sided with the packers, but their plays were made well after i posted and booked mine....
gotta love collaboration
nice. i posted gb less than 1 hour after the end of the jets game but i took -2.5. good luck thats a big play. i dont think i have seen you post that big of a play
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good luck dexter .... I'm also on the OverComment -
crushed this closer....wish i had played more then a nickelOriginally posted by DexterComment -
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afc and over in 2nd half ?Comment -
did u take over for the game?Originally posted by JimmytGreekComment -
Week 21: 1-0 (+5 units)Originally posted by Dexter
YTD: 98-92 (+5.8 units)Comment -
Great call on the over in the Probowl and with you on GB and underComment -
nfc and over .. also put afc and over in for 2nd halfComment -
Originally posted by JimmytGreek
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go with grenn bay and the overComment -
big day almost here....
JimmyT.....i got the quesidillas.....get them boxes going
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Originally posted by DexterOriginally posted by Dexter
Packers (24) vs Steelers (20)
All the data is now in front of us, so i broke down this game a few ways. First, lets look at the Steelers Wins/Losses this year. Pitt had 14 wins this year. Only 5 of those wins were vs teams > 500. Their 4 losses this year were vs the Pats, Jets, Saints, Ravens - All excellent teams. The Packers had 13 wins this year. 7 of those wins were vs teams > 500. Their 6 losses were broken out vs 3 teams > 500, and 3 < 500. However, in 2 of those losses Aaron Rodgers only played part of the game vs Det and he did not play vs the Pats.
So bottom line, the Packers have played the tougher schedule and 2 of their losses were without their All World QB. Green Bay's march through the playoffs has been without the aid of a home field advantage. Pittsburgh on the other hand, has made it through with the aid of their home fans. In the games where Green Bay's offense was cold, it was in bad field conditions and that will not be an issue today. A fast track should benefit all of the speed Green Bay has on offense.
A huge loss for the Steelers - all pro center Pouncey will not play today. Dont be surprised to see some bad snaps or miscommunication between the new center and Rothlesberger. Pitts offensive line is not that strong, thus Green Bay's vicious defense should be in the backfield all day. Rodgers has the advantage vs the Steelers secondary, as that is Pitt's weakness on the defensive side of the ball. The Packers secondary on the other hand, is a shut down group led by Woodson and Williams.
Last years subplot had the Saints winning the SuperBowl for the state of Louisiana after all they went through with Katrina. I look at this years subplot as Ben Rothlesberger's off the field issues with the sexual assault. Ben has his 2 rings, and i think its now time for the NFL to have its new Golden Boy Championship QB - Aaron Rodgers. Last year when i took the Saints, my gut told me they would win it for all they went through - this year my gut is telling me that the hated Rothlesberger will not get another ring with all the negative off the field issues hes had. Not a huge angle that i'm hanging my hat on - just a gut instinct that contributes towards my capping of the Packers to win.
The public is split 50/50 on this game, and Vegas has pushed the line up to 3. Nothing too telling here imo, as there is so many novice bettors making plays in the Superbowl, i tend to not pay attention to the action. I predicted the Packers to win the Superbowl here in this thread preseason, and i am standing by that prediction 5 months later. I made the mistake of taking the Eagles in round 1, and decided right after that game that i would ride the Packers through the SuperBowl. I see no reason to stop riding them today. The Vince Lombardi trophy comes home tonight.Comment -
i feel u DexComment -
I like what you wrote and it all falls in place. I was thinking of hedging my GB bets if Pitt goes to +3 or 3.5. My book still has the game as we speak GB -2.5 and ML at -140. I have half my money on the money line and half on the spread. but after reading your post, I feel better with what I have and will just go with it.
thanks Dex for sharing your thoughts and your picksComment -
Good luck dex, nice angles on the write upComment -
EXACTLY. This is where most 'cappers have gone wrong. The Green Bay defense is unheralded and will present major problems for the Steelers. Because of the elite O of the Packers people have slept on this fact ...Originally posted by DexterComment -
some good props out there..heath miller...one touchdowm +220....over 3.5 receptions even, over Ben 13.5 yards, Wallace over 3.5 receptions....Comment
