Early lines for NFL team win totals

[Scorpion]

Early lines for NFL team win totals 
May, 6, 2010May 61:24PM ETComment Print Email Share A couple weeks ago, the Venetian became the first book on The Strip to post NFL season win totals for 2010. Then, earlier this week, Jimmy Vaccaro at Lucky's put out his season win totals. For accounting's sake, you can now bet on Week 1 of the NFL season, get money down on Super Bowl future bets and put cash on how many games each team will win. And we haven't even hit the MLB All-Star break.




It's worth noting that none of the above options has gotten much action yet. Part of the reason books put these out is to garner attention (well played, fellas) and bring in traffic. Even if they are not playing, plenty of potential bettors are coming in every day and picking up sheets with the numbers. Then they head back into their caves and start crunching the stats, looking for the best possible value and opportunity.



This is where the bookmakers take a little bit of a chance and play gambler, because they are a tad bit exposed. "For season win totals, the numbers are largely based on past performance and the team's upcoming strength of schedule," says Mark Goldman, who runs the Venetian and Palazzo sports books. Taking a bit of a bet doesn't bother Goldman. He started his career at The Stardust working for Lefty Rosenthal, the guy DeNiro played in Casino. Goldman is well aware of how to manage risk as a bookmaker.



But while his totals are out there, wise guys are definitely studying past trends to see where they can make a killing. Sharps love season win-total bets because the middle and lower numbers can become incredibly off as the season gets closer. There aren't any consensus ideas yet for which team is woefully mispriced, but here's a look at what the Venetian and Lucky's posted for every team:


NFL season win-total lines
Team Venetian/Palazzo Lucky's 
Indianapolis Colts 11 11 
San Diego Chargers 10.5 11 
New Orleans Saints 10.5 10.5 
Dallas Cowboys 10 10 
New York Jets 9.5 9.5 
New England Patriots 9.5 9.5 
Minnesota Vikings 9 9.5 
Baltimore Ravens 9 9.5 
San Francisco 49ers 9 8.5 
Green Bay Packers 9 9.5 
Philadelphia Eagles 8.5 8.5 
New York Giants 8.5 9 
Houston Texans 8.5 8.5 
Tennessee Titans 8.5 8.5 
Atlanta Falcons 8 9 
Pittsburgh Steelers 8 8.5 
Cincinnati Bengals 8 8 
Miami Dolphins 8 8 
Chicago Bears 7.5 8 
Carolina Panthers 7.5 8 
Washington Redskins 7.5 7.5 
Arizona Cardinals 7.5 7.5 
Jacksonville Jaguars 7.5 7 
Denver Broncos 7 7.5 
Seattle Seahawks 7 7.5 
Kansas City Chiefs 6 6 
Buffalo Bills 5.5 6 
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 5.5 5.5 
Oakland Raiders 5.5 6 
Detroit Lions 5.5 5.5 
Cleveland Browns 5 5.5 
St. Louis Rams 5 5

[slacker00]

Raiders, Bucs, Lions, Browns over 5.5 (It's an 8-8 league and these teams can regress towards that mean.)

Colts, Chargers under 11 (It's an 8-8 league and these teams can regress to the mean.)

Vikings over 9 (I can't understand why the Vikings are getting so little respect after a very solid year last year.)

Eagles under 8.5 (The Eagles are rebuilding.)

[Z_Wipf]

Eagles under, bucs under, pack, lions over

[iwantcougars]

pitt over 8.5

[babyanni]

jets over 9.5

[Powderguy]

Rams UNDER 5

[Scorpion]

dallas under 10
no way they go 8-0 at home

2010 Schedule
Date Opponent Time/Result
Sep 12 @Washington 8:20pm
Sep 19 Chicago 1:00pm
Sep 26 @Houston 1:00pm
Week 4 BYE
Oct 10 Tennessee 4:15pm
Oct 17 @Minnesota 4:15pm
Oct 25 N.Y. Giants 8:30pm
Oct 31 Jacksonville 1:00pm
Nov 7 @Green Bay 8:20pm
Nov 14 @N.Y. Giants 4:15pm
Nov 21 Detroit 1:00pm
Nov 25 New Orleans 4:15pm
Dec 5 @Indianapolis 4:15pm
Dec 12 Philadelphia 8:20pm
Dec 19 Washington 1:00pm
Dec 25 @Arizona 7:30pm
Jan 2 @Philadelphia 1:00pm

[Rig]

Yea Dallas under 10

[jhack704]

rams under 5.5

[icancount2one]

Rams under
Skins under
Raiders over

[BigdaddyQH]

Raiders, Bucs, Lions, Browns over 5.5 (It's an 8-8 league and these teams can regress towards that mean.)

Colts, Chargers under 11 (It's an 8-8 league and these teams can regress to the mean.)

Vikings over 9 (I can't understand why the Vikings are getting so little respect after a very solid year last year.)

Eagles under 8.5 (The Eagles are rebuilding.)

Bucs Under 5.5. They have no offense and a terrible HC. Lions under 5.5. They will not win 6 games with that schedule. Vikings over 9, IF the Drama Queen returns. Chargers-Pass. Raiders-Pass. Eagles, Under 8.5. Giants over 8.5. Buffalo under 6. That team is terrible.

[snowball22]

giants over

[RJ89]

Oakland over 5.5 (With a real quarterback last year they probably would have gone 8-8 or better. Now they have one, they have improved in other areas, and they are in one of the worst divisions in the league with the Broncos and Chiefs.)

Buffalo under 6 (This team is just awful, they don't have a decent QB and they still won't be able to stop the run. Their draft made no sense, and every other team in their division has improved.)

Without looking at the schedules, those are the two that really stand out. Jacksonville Under 7.5, Philly under 8.5, and Denver under 7.5 all look tempting.

[brooks85]

I look forward to the day colts are actually over the hill so I can take advantage of the O/U but i dont think their is 6 teams on their schedule that can beat them. Majority of the tough games they have are at home, which is huge.

SD over looks pretty solid to me, especially if it drops to 10.5. I could see them winning at least 7 of their first 9, then they have a byeweek and i could definitely see them winning 4 out of their last 7, with denx2, oak, kc, sf, cin and Ind

[brooks85]

gotta think buffalo takes a huge step back on offense next year, not they were any good last year. They did have problems with the QB position, but either way TO was taking up coverage and now they dont have that.

[THEGREAT30]

Oakland and Tennessee I like the overs, good day

[BigdaddyQH]

Houston under, now that they have lost their best LB for the first 4 games. I would also look at Dallas, Indy, Oakland,and Washington a bit closer now. Houston's potential 3-1 start has now turned in to a potential 1-3 start.

[magic8ball]

Perhaps just a little bad math here but... If you add up all the o/u numbers it comes to about 2485. Divide that by 32 teams and you get 7.7 If you bet over on every team, you win more than you lose including juice. Correct me if I'm wrong.

[kroyrunner89]

I added the numbers up to 252.5 but I did it really quick in my head so I could be off. Given that there are 256 potential wins in the NFL every season, 252.5/32 = 7.9

So yeah, slightly under 8 per team, but it won't be at all profitable to bet the over for every team. Here are the ones that initially jumped out at me, I'll be doing a write up in the next week or so once I have a chance to take a closer look at these. Initial impressions though:

Falcons Over 8
Giants Under 8.5
Broncos Under 7
Ravens Over 9
Bengals Over 8
Jets Over 9.5
Bills Under 5.5

[GunShard]

Chargers under 11
Jets over 9.5

49ers over 9 looks good, but I wouldn't bet on it.

[The DiB]

Baltimore over 9.

Home games against Cleveland, Denver, Buffalo, Miami, TB will be wins. There's 5.

They also play @ Pitt during Worthlessberger's suspension. @ Cleveland will be a cake walk. Should win @ Carolina Up to 8.

Toss-up games include Cincy twice, Pitt at home, @ NYJ, and @ ATL. Even a 2-3 record there puts them over 9.

[brooks85]

ya that does look good. Even as bengal fan, im expecting the ravens to not let us sweep this year. Last year, in the first game a lot of balls bounced our way. For example, the late Chris Henry's catch on the final drive, was not in-bounds.

[rm18]

jets over is free money

[EastsidaProduct]

Panthers (o. 7.5)

Dallas (u. 10)
________________________________

[The DiB]

I would be careful about the Jets. They actually remind me a lot of the Falcons coming into the 09 season, who also had high expectations with a very young QB.

The Jets lucked into the playoffs last year, they were very fortunate the Colts and Bengals bent over for them the last 2 weeks of the season. No way the Jets would have made it to the playoffs if they didn't. Would you feel the same about the Jets chances this season if the Colts and Bengals actually showed up?

Their schedule gets harder this year. They get the NFC North and AFC North, both which have 3 playoff contending teams. I think the loss of Alan Faneca is going to hurt a little more than people think. Not to mention Sanchez is entering the "sophomore slump" season, much like Matt Ryan last year.

[iifold]

The Raiders line is wrong, should be higher

[seaborneq]

Vikes, Jets, and Falcons over looks incredibly easy.

[ttwarrior1]

rams can't win six i dont think

[BigdaddyQH]

There is always one team that just looks too easy to pick. The Jets are that team this year. They only won 9 regular season games las year,and have the sophmore jinx for their Qb and HC staring them in the face. That is why they set the line at 9.5 games. With their schedule, 10 wins is not as easy as it seems.

[whatsgood5]

Skins over

[gryfyn1]

Baltimore over 9
Oakland over 5.5

These two are almost gimme's, Baltimore was one of the best teams last year, have added a star receiver to shore up the biggest weakness. The Raiders managed 5 wins this year with atrocious QB play - With macfadden healthy and Campbell even if he is just average 6 wins seems like a layup.


Packers over 9
Bears over 8
Saints under 11
Jags under 7.5

[gryfyn1]

There is always one team that just looks too easy to pick. The Jets are that team this year. They only won 9 regular season games las year,and have the sophmore jinx for their Qb and HC staring them in the face. That is why they set the line at 9.5 games. With their schedule, 10 wins is not as easy as it seems.

yep, that Jets line is a sucker bet, I think people are glossing over the fact they are losing a guy that average 315 carries, 1350 yards and 13.5 TDs over the last two years.

Its asking alot of Shonn Greene to fill that role and even more of Tomlinson to fill Greene's role last year,

[AlphaOmega]

Miami will win more than 8

[filter15]

I added the numbers up to 252.5 but I did it really quick in my head so I could be off. Given that there are 256 potential wins in the NFL every season, 252.5/32 = 7.9

So yeah, slightly under 8 per team, but it won't be at all profitable to bet the over for every team. Here are the ones that initially jumped out at me, I'll be doing a write up in the next week or so once I have a chance to take a closer look at these. Initial impressions though:

Falcons Over 8
Giants Under 8.5
Broncos Under 7
Ravens Over 9
Bengals Over 8
Jets Over 9.5
Bills Under 5.5

Falcons 50-50 hit
giants 50-50
broncos disagree... too hard to tell. but they went 8-8 last year, and imo should be same~better
Bengals may regress to a previous state, might take the under
Jets overated- id it werent forthat playoff run
bills probably hit right at 4-5

[Andy117]

Jets over
Philly under
Raiders over