NFL Odds to Win Division

[BigdaddyQH]

From Sportsbook.com:

AFC:

North:

Baltimore -110
Pittsbrugh +200
Cincinnati +350
Cleveland +1200

South:

Indianapolis -150
Houston +350
Tennessee +350
Jacksonville + 800

East:

New England +125
New York +140
Miami +300
Bufalo +2000

West:

San Diego -250
Denver +500
Kansas City +600
Oakland +650

NFC:

North:

Green Bay +125
Minnesota +140
Chicago +300
Detroit +2000

South:

New Orleans -175
Atlanta +160
Carolina +900
Tampa Bay +2500

East:

Dallas +120
New York +250
Philadelphia +250
Washington +700

West:

San Francisco -125
Arizona +125
Seattle +300
St. Louis +1500.

Fire away guys.

[slacker00]

I love Minny +140, someone needs to explain why they are not the favorite.

Washington +700 is excellent value. Giants & Cowboys are choke-worthy, Philly is rebuilding.

Houston +350, Tennessee +350, Jax +800 are all excellent value. Take your pick. Indy is way overvalued here.

[BigdaddyQH]

Green Bay has the better overall team, IMO. A win against Minny last season gives them the NFC North Championship. Farve is getting another year older. Peterson had a poor year. The Minny Coaching Staff is questionable at best. Rodgers is now a better QB than Favre, and if somethinghappens to Favre, the Vikes are finished.

Washington has no chance in the NFC East because they will not be able to compete with Dallas AND the Giants. We are talking about a 4-12 team here. If theydouble thier wins (wich is not likely considering the schedule) that is only 8 wins, and that is not good enough. This team is not capable of defeating the likes of Houston, Indy, Green Bay and Minnesota, and those games are at home. A loss to Dallas at home to open the season will spell the end for the 'Skins.

I agree with your analysis of the NFC South. I think there is value in both Houston and Tennessee +350. The window may be closing on Indy. Manning can not do it all, and I do not see anything Indy has done in the off season to really improve.

Another team that has huge odds that I would look at is Carolina at +900. They get Arizona and San Francisco at home, as well as Baltimore and Cincinnati. They play at Pitt late in the season, when Pitt may be out of playoff contention. Fox is also very dangerous when his team is overlooked. This team was 4-2 in their division last year. They have been oer .500 in their own division in 4 out of the last 5 seasons and has not been under .500 in their own division since 2002. At 9/1, this may be worth a shot.

[slacker00]

Green Bay has the better overall team, IMO. A win against Minny last season gives them the NFC North Championship.

But they got swept. That's the point. Minny has proven to be the better team in this matchup.

Farve is getting another year older.

This has been said for the past decade, but he keeps putting up HOF numbers year after year. Plus, he's coming off one of his best years. This argument is very stale.

Peterson had a poor year.

1383 yards, 18 TDs is a poor year? More like HOF RB numbers. Saying AP is anything less than elite is a joke.

The Minny Coaching Staff is questionable at best.

I'll grant this point. But it was still good enough to sweep GB last season. I don't think McCarthy is that great either, to be fair. The joke here around Wisconsin is that McCarthy looks like he has down's syndrome.

if somethinghappens to Favre, the Vikes are finished.

What happens if something happens to Rodgers? Which QB has a better track record of staying healthy?

Washington has no chance in the NFC East because they will not be able to compete with Dallas AND the Giants.

Dallas AND NYG are capable of choking down the stretch. It's been happening fairly regularly, recently.

We are talking about a 4-12 team here.

Cincy was 4-11-1 before winning the AFC North last season. It gets done all the time.

If theydouble thier wins (wich is not likely considering the schedule) that is only 8 wins, and that is not good enough.

[quote=BigdaddyQH;4382665]Nobody is claiming that 8-8 will win the division. But they'd certainly have to go at least 4-2, in division and at least 4-4 against the common opponents in the AFC & NFC North. All of this is doable. Then they get the Rams and Bucs thanks to their last place schedule. That gives 10-6 which is good enough at the low end. Washington is every bit as talented as any other team in this division from top to bottom.

This team is not capable of defeating the likes of Houston, Indy, Green Bay and Minnesota, and those games are at home.

All of these teams are beatable. Besides, the rest of the NFC East also has to play these same teams.

A loss to Dallas at home to open the season will spell the end for the 'Skins.

I see you've got this one written in ink. Let them play the games before you jump to this conclusion.

[MendozaLine]

San Diego -250 is a joke. They should be -1000. There isn't 1 team in that division that can compete with them. Take a look at San Diego's schedule as well. It favors them big time.

[GunShard]

What do you think about these trends?


A team that has lost at the Super Bowl has never won the Super Bowl the season after.

Do you agree with this trend?

The Colts should not be taken as a contender? They have the best QB but they are known to lose alot in post season.

What about the Brett Farve would be the oldest QB to play at the Super Bowl. Is this plausible or should the Vikings not to be taken as a contender?

Should I fade the Colts and Vikings or they still a contender?

If these are true, then I would narrow the down the teams to the Jets, Ravens, Patriots and Saints.

I can't take the Packers seriously when they lost to the Bucs.
I can't take the Chargers seriously when they lost some key players.

The Chargers can beat the Chiefs and Broncos. I think the Raiders got stronger.
The 49ers can beat the Seahawks, Cardinals and Rams. Increasing thier chance for playoffs.

Any of these factors significant?

[slacker00]

The 49ers can beat the Seahawks, Cardinals and Rams. Increasing thier chance for playoffs.

Gotta love the 49ers to take that division. Rams are nothing, Cards are weak without Warner, Seahawks have too many negatives.

The Chargers can beat the Chiefs and Broncos. I think the Raiders got stronger.

I can't take the Chargers seriously when they lost some key players.

[COLOR=#000000 !important]San Diego -250 is a joke. They should be -1000. There isn't 1 team in that division that can compete with them. Take a look at San Diego's schedule as well. It favors them big time.[/COLOR]

I agree with much of this. SD should be able to sleepwalk through this division, but the Raiders might be a surprise. I don't think the offseason losses will be quite as bad as advertised.

What about the Brett Farve would be the oldest QB to play at the Super Bowl. Is this plausible or should the Vikings not to be taken as a contender?

There's no indication that Farve is slowing down. The team is stacked, he just has to manage the game, think Elway in his last couple seasons. Vikings could pull Jake Plummer out of retirement and still win the division.

If these are true, then I would narrow the down the teams to the Jets, Ravens, Patriots and Saints.

It's hard to argue against these four teams. They are solid in every phase of the game, from QB to coaching to defense, etc.

[BigdaddyQH]

Green Bay and Minnesota were very close offensively last season. Green Bay averaged 6 yards less per game rushing, and 10 yards more per game passing. With Favre getting older and well past his prime, and Rodgers just getting to his prime, the Packers will have a much better passing game than the Vikes this season. The question becomes what happened to the Vikes running game last season? After a great start, they were held to under 100 yards in six games. That will doom Minnesota if it happens again this season. The more they depend on Favre, the worse they will do. Minnesota failed to use Peterson properly last season. While their schedules are almost identical, Minnesota does play New Orleans in New Orlens to start the season. I also like the fact that Green Bay gets a bye before their game at Minnesota, but Minnesota must play Dallas at home before their game at Green Bay. The Pack also finishes the season with two games at home, while the Vikes finish the season with two away games. Just little things that favor the Pack. In and of their own, they do not add up to much, but put them together, and you see why the Pack is favored over the Vikes. With one of the worst coaching staffs in the NFL, Minny does not go to the Superbowl this season. This team is far from being loaded.


As far as Washington is concerned, you may as well just send your money to me if you are going to wager on that bunch of losers. You have an old has been QB who has earned his nickname of "McChoke". You have a washed up HC who had not been to a playoff game in 3 years before he was fired, and had blown a three game lead in the AFC West with three games to play in his last year of coaching. You are looking at a HC who'se record was .500 in hos last three years at Denver, in a division that included the Chiefs (15-34) and the Raiders (11-37) in that time frame. Washington averaged 94 yards running the ball last year. They lost 12 games. They scored 6 points againt Dallas last season. McChoke scored 14 points against Dallas in 3 games last season. They also gave up 68 points in two games to the Giants. While this team may improve, they have no chance at the NFC East title. They do not play the AFC West this year. They get the AFC South.

The problem with the Saints is value. That and a poor defense. No NFC South team has ever repeated as NFC South Champs. The NFC has not had a repeat Superbowl team since 1998-99. New Orleans can score with anyone, but their defense is very questionable. While they certainly have a good shot at repeating, the value is just not there. Last season they flew under the radar, coming off 8-8 and 7-9 seasons. That will not happen again. The oddity here is that they actually play a much easier schedule this season (AFC North, NFC West) than last season, but so does everyone in the NFC South. The Saints will be very good, but not a very good value pick.

The Jets and the Patsies will basically take each other out during the regular season. It should be a real dog fight between those two teams in the AFC East. I am concerned that the Jets do not go through a "Sophmore Slump" that hits their QB Sanchez and their HC Ryan. I also think the gimmicktry wears off of Ryan now. I am still reminded that the Jets basically backed into the playoffs last season. The Jets are a younger group than the Patsies. The schedules are almost identical, though the Jets get Denver while the Patsies get San Diego. Then there is Miami. Who knows what this team may or may not do on any given week. Talk about a wild card. They have defeated the Jets 3 straight times. This conference should be very competitive.

The Ravens look like a great value. They get a huge break playing at Pitt while Big Ben is still under suspension. No other NFC North team is guaranteed that luxury. They also get New Orleans at home, and duck both Indy and San Diego. This team looks like a very solid play in the AFC North, and a very solid play to go all the way.

[slacker00]

Green Bay and Minnesota were very close offensively last season. Green Bay averaged 6 yards less per game rushing, and 10 yards more per game passing. With Favre getting older and well past his prime, and Rodgers just getting to his prime, the Packers will have a much better passing game than the Vikes this season.

Was Favre past his prime last season? He had an MVP calibre year doing it. I don't buy this past his prime baloney.

I see the Vikings improving their passing attack. Favre, with an entire offseason to get his young talent on the same page, I see nothing but improvement for the Vikings offense. Talk about players just getting to their prime, talk about Peterson, Harvin, Rice, Shiancoe, Berrian. The Packers main WR, Donald Driver is past his prime. I've seen his production tail off dramatically as the season went on and he's ready for the glue factory. Although unlike your argument about Favre, the stats back up my claim.

The question becomes what happened to the Vikes running game last season? After a great start, they were held to under 100 yards in six games. That will doom Minnesota if it happens again this season. The more they depend on Favre, the worse they will do. Minnesota failed to use Peterson properly last season.

The stats don't support your claim. 4 of those 6 games held under 100 yards were in the first 7 games of the season. In the last 11 games of the season, they were only held to under 100 yards 2 times. In the NFC championship game, they had the 3rd highest rushing yards of the season. There is no evidence that there is anything lacking in the Vikings running attack, in fact the opposite is true. This is fool's gold that you are selling, buddy.

While their schedules are almost identical, Minnesota does play New Orleans in New Orlens to start the season. I also like the fact that Green Bay gets a bye before their game at Minnesota, but Minnesota must play Dallas at home before their game at Green Bay. The Pack also finishes the season with two games at home, while the Vikes finish the season with two away games. Just little things that favor the Pack. In and of their own, they do not add up to much, but put them together, and you see why the Pack is favored over the Vikes. With one of the worst coaching staffs in the NFL, Minny does not go to the Superbowl this season. This team is far from being loaded.

I actually prefer the Viking's first place schedule over the Packer's second place schedule. Week 1, the Vikings will be pumped with a chance to revenge their loss that has been eating at them all offseason. The Saints are fat and happy with their trophy and will probably show up to the game hung over from an entire offseason of celebrating, I see a backslide and a letdown by the Saints, especially early in the season. The Packers draw the Falcons who are a similar up and coming team that will have a lot more fight in them than a team that has nothing to prove to anyone in the Saints. With Warner retiring, I'd much rather face the Cards than the 49ers as well.

[julio_cat]

Oakland dead last again? Kansas is horrible

[slacker00]

Oakland dead last again? Kansas is horrible

Nah, Oakland finally has a QB. Probably 8-8 for them.

[ijrod21i]

That's right Pats haters, they're still the favorite. Absolutely no amount of players can make up for playoff experience and the Jets starting qb has only been in 3.

[stealthyburrito]

what did that get the pats last year? a blowout loss at home to a veteran, more athletic team.

[Rig]

I like
cinncy
Denver
minny
Atlanta
Arizona

[GunShard]

I noticed that:
The Jets can only beat the Colts if Peyton Manning is not playing and can only beat the Patriots if Wes Welker is not playing.
The Ravens can only beat the Patriots if Wes Welker is not playing.

Maybe, Colts or Patriots vs Vikings or Saints Super Bowl.

I still see the Saints as a contender, they upgraded thier defense in the draft, but will have to see if it helped them.

Hard to say the Ravens can win the division. The Bengals are still a threat.

I also believe the Vikings are a better team than the Packers as long as Farve is playing. The Vikings did beat the Packers twice. The Packers lost to the Bucs. Maybe it was Packers WR's fault?

[MendozaLine]

Key players? As in Cromartie and LT? The chargers got better by letting those 2 go. You replace Cromartie with a former 1st round pick in Antoine Cason or Nathan Vasher. You replace the old LT with Ryan Matthews who was the best back in the draft.

What do you think about these trends?


A team that has lost at the Super Bowl has never won the Super Bowl the season after.

Do you agree with this trend?

The Colts should not be taken as a contender? They have the best QB but they are known to lose alot in post season.

What about the Brett Farve would be the oldest QB to play at the Super Bowl. Is this plausible or should the Vikings not to be taken as a contender?

Should I fade the Colts and Vikings or they still a contender?

If these are true, then I would narrow the down the teams to the Jets, Ravens, Patriots and Saints.

I can't take the Packers seriously when they lost to the Bucs.
I can't take the Chargers seriously when they lost some key players.

The Chargers can beat the Chiefs and Broncos. I think the Raiders got stronger.
The 49ers can beat the Seahawks, Cardinals and Rams. Increasing thier chance for playoffs.

Any of these factors significant?

[MendozaLine]

yeah, instead of having the worst QB, they have the 5th worst . If anyone thinks Jason Campbell is in a better situation in Oakland than he was in Washington, you need to have your head checked.

Nah, Oakland finally has a QB. Probably 8-8 for them.

[patswin]

if farve is done minny has no chance to win the central

[Powderguy]

Holy hell, Chargers are huge favorites in the AFC West

[iwantcougars]

denver +500 has some value

[steve18]

Cincy +350 has some value also without a doubt.

[slacker00]

yeah, instead of having the worst QB, they have the 5th worst . If anyone thinks Jason Campbell is in a better situation in Oakland than he was in Washington, you need to have your head checked.

Jason Campbell was ranked 15th last season in passer rating. That's about right where he belongs, he's an average NFL QB, I never said anything different. That's a HUGE upgrade from having the #32 QB in the league.

With an average QB, look for Oakland to have an 8-8 type year. If the Chargers get sloppy, maybe Oakland catches them sleepwalking through that division and somehow win it going 9-7 or something.

[BigdaddyQH]

I think the Chargers are the easy winners of the AFC West, even though they had a lousy draft. Matthews is way over rated as a RB. He is good, but certainly not as good as what the Chargers think. San Diego still has a losers mentality when it comes to playoff games. They are one of the worst playoff teams in history. That will continue until this team rid itself of the players on it with the losing mentality, like Merriman and others. Rivers also loves to choke in these games. Either he grows out of that or he must go. So for the Charger fans, it will be another year of winning the AFC West and bowling out early in the playoffs. Same old crap for the Chargers.

[slacker00]

I think the Chargers are the easy winners of the AFC West ...

You're probably right. Maybe wait until right before opening day and take the -250 to win the division. I don't imagine this line will move too much before now and then. The rest of the AFC West isn't really capable of unseating SD. The only way SD messes it up is if they do it to themselves like they've done it in years past.

I still kinda like Oakland +650. Those are pretty long odds on a team that pulled off some quality wins last year.

[gryfyn1]

You have to like Balt, even at -110, Pitt will look bad early with no QB and no running game, and Balt was light years better than thier 9-7 record.

Atlanta at +160 looks pretty good at 9-7, if they solve thier secondary issues, NO will step back next year.

Seattle at +300, if, if if ... same old tuned in seattle, but Im not sold on SF with no QB ,,

[BigdaddyQH]

I can not believe that San Francisco is -125 with no QB, and Seattle is +300 after the best draft in the NFL. Now I would favor the 49ers, but certainly not make them odds on to win the NFC West. San Francisco also has a disadvantage of only playing 7 home games and 8 away games. Their 8th home game is actually a game against Denver in London England on Halloween. On top of that, the 49ers have to go to San Diego on a Thursday Night after a Sunday game at home against Seattle in December.

[CaptainPrice]

denver +500 has some value

I agree
probably the best up there

[hhsilver]

What do you think about these trends?


A team that has lost at the Super Bowl has never won the Super Bowl the season after.

Do you agree with this trend?

This is not true --- It happened in 2 consecutive years long ago-- Dallas , then Miami. -- some thought at the time this would be trend.

( sorry if this was already stated - didn't read the whole thread)

[THEGREAT30]

Cincinnati +350
Tennessee +350
New York +250

I'll take all 3 of these, good day

[icancount2one]

Cincy +350 has some value also without a doubt.

I like this and OAK +650 for value. Upgrading from the absolute worst starting QB in the league to a guy who put up about average numbers with a crap O-line and receiving corps has got to count for something

Also, NYJ + 140 looks good

and I gotta weigh in on the Minny/GB debate

Four words: Regression towards the mean. The bizarre thing about Favre's 2009 season wasn't that he ended it with a pick, it's that he threw so few picks the entire year. Seldom does an older player follow up the best year of his career with another year of similar caliber. Minny's going downhill with or without Brett as the young Packers keep getting better.

[GunShard]

If the trend of a Super Bowl loser not winning the Super Bowl the season after, turns out to be false. Then I should keep a bet on the Colts.

I like how Alex Smith and the 49ers performed against the Texans and the Colts. I think the 49ers are a good divisional bet.

Jason Campbell will play better as a Raider. If the Raiders have a better offensive line than the Redskins.

Both the Colts and Chargers play awful in the playoffs. And the Chargers defeated the Colts mutilple times in the playoffs.

[slacker00]

This is not true --- It happened in 2 consecutive years long ago-- Dallas , then Miami. -- some thought at the time this would be trend.

( sorry if this was already stated - didn't read the whole thread)

If you've gotta go back 40 years to find data to support your claim, you're going back way too far.

The modern era of the NFL is generally accepted as being the last 25-35 years at the maximum. Even then it's a stretch in many cases. We're no longer talking about players who have to take an offseason job to support their NFL career.

[BigdaddyQH]

Actually Dallas is the only team to do this, back in 1971 and 72. They lost Superbowl 5 and won Superbowl 6.

[slacker00]

Actually Dallas is the only team to do this, back in 1971 and 72. They lost Superbowl 5 and won Superbowl 6.

No, hhsilver is right. Miami did it too, one year after Dallas did it. Miami lost to Dallas in SB 6 and then won SB 7.

But the recent trend for Super Bowl losers is that they are not the same team one year later. Many of them don't make it back to the playoffs and those that do go back to the playoffs don't seem to get anywhere.

[toober89]

new england will take the division...look for the jets to IMPLODE this year!!