MNF Week 5: Chiefs vs Jaguars Prediction

[SBR Andy]

Week 5 of Monday Night Football features 2-2 Kansas City taking on 3-1 Jacksonville. SBR's Gary Pearson breaks down the action in his Chiefs vs Jaguars prediction.

Over/Under pick: Under 46.5 (-120 via FanDuel)

Game pick: Chiefs -3 (-118 via FanDuel)

"If you're into historical trends, you'll be all over the Chiefs' eight straight wins against Jacksonville, four of which were with Patrick Mahomes under center.

I'm more partial to the fact that Kansas City has been resembling the best version of itself over the last game and a half.

While I'm not placing a ton of weight on their dominant home victory against a battered and bruised Baltimore Ravens team, I do put stock in the momentum and confidence the team gained from that comprehensive 37-20 triumph.

Meanwhile, the Jaguars are off to an impressive 3-1 start while posting the second-best EPA per play defensively and ranking fourth in overall defense, according to PFF.

However, that record is flattering since those stats have come against three of four teams with offensive rankings that sit 18th or worse (the Carolina Panthers, Houston Texans, and Cincinnati Bengals)."

Player prop bet: Xavier Worthy Over 57.5 receiving yards (-111 via bet365)

"Worthy tallied 83 receiving yards on five catches against the Ravens during his first game back.

Yes, the injury bug has been striking the Ravens, but that doesn't detract from Mahomes needing to look toward Worthy more often when wanting to attack downfield.

Worthy should also be up to speed more in his second game back. The Jaguars' pass defense is ranked highly, with the fifth-best rating via DVOA and the second-best coverage grade (76) at PFF. However, Ja'Marr Chase recorded 164 receiving yards against them, with Jake Browning making most of the throws."

[SBR Andy]

MNF Chiefs vs Jaguars player prop bets from SBR's Phil Wood:

Xavier Worthy Over 51.5 receiving yards (-115 via BetMGM)

"Worthy returned last week and immediately became the Chiefs’ leading receiver again, catching five passes for 83 yards on a team-high eight targets. That performance came against the league's second-worst pass defense, and tonight’s matchup isn’t much tougher, as the Jaguars field the 10th-worst unit.

The Jaguars are allowing 233.5 passing yards per game, and they’ve particularly been struggling against opposing top options. Nico Collins caught eight passes for 104 yards against them, and Ja’Marr Chase recorded 14 grabs for 165 yards, making this one of the best Chiefs vs. Jaguars player props."


Isiah Pacheco Under 29.5 rushing yards (-110 via BetMGM)

"Pacheco has rushed for at least 22 yards in every game this season. However, he's posted a season-high of just 45 yards, and that came against the Giants, a team allowing over 140 rushing yards per game. He managed just 35 yards during a blowout win against the Ravens’ fourth-worst run defense last week.

Now Pacheco faces a much tougher challenge, as the Jaguars are allowing the third-fewest rushing yards per contest (82.8). They’re giving up only 3.9 yards per carry, which will be highly problematic for Pacheco. He hasn’t been given more than 10 rush attempts in a game this season, finishing two appearances with seven or fewer."


Travis Etienne Jr. Over 63.5 rushing yards (-115 via BetMGM)

"The Jaguars are posting the fourth-most rushing yards per game, largely due to Etienne’s 394 yards. He's produced two 100-plus-yard games this season, including 124 on 19 carries last week against the 49ers.

The Chiefs are allowing the 11th-most rushing yards per game (127.0). They’re also giving up 4.9 yards per carry, which is sixth-most leaguewide. Etienne is averaging 6.1 yards per attempt, and he’s averaged over five yards per carry in three of his four outings. The tailback will be able to do enough to hit this Over, even if his rushing workload is light."

[SBR Andy]

Monday Night Football anytime touchdown scorer predictions from SBR's Esten McLaren:

Xavier Worthy, WR, Chiefs (+150 via DraftKings)

"Xavier Worthy returned from an injury suffered in Week 1 to catch five of eight targets for 83 yards as he immediately re-assumed his role as QB Patrick Mahomes' No. 1 option in the passing game. He had a long reception of 37 yards and added 38 rushing yards on two rushing attempts while playing 59% of the offensive snaps.

The Jaguars' defense has been adequate against receivers, holding the position to a 57.6% catch rate and just 6.48 yards per target. Jacksonville has allowed receivers to combine for just 596 yards and four touchdowns through four weeks. But that's only helping us to get better odds on Worthy to score tonight.

Our C Jackson Cowart backed Worthy to score in our anytime touchdown scorer parlay for Week 5, citing the weaknesses of Jaguars cornerback Tyson Campbell. Campbell has allowed three of those touchdowns to receivers on 279 yards."


Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs (+190 via DraftKings)

"Travis Kelce is still contributing to the Chiefs, and he caught five of five targets last week for 48 yards against a Baltimore Ravens team that is very susceptible to tight end production. Well, Kelce is in a similar spot on Monday Night Football against a Jaguars team allowing tight ends to catch 74.1% of their targets at a 7.37-yard average.

I'd also be lying if the release of Taylor Swift's new album, with the song 'Wood' believed by some Swifties to be about Kelce, isn't factoring into this anytime touchdown scorer prediction. He'll have a little extra fuel to his fire on prime time."


Brenton Strange, TE, Jaguars (+370 via FanDuel)

"As favorable as this Monday Night Football matchup is for Kelce, it's even more so for Jaguars tight end Brenton Strange. Kansas City has allowed the position to catch 15 of 18 targets for 132 yards. While the Chiefs haven't given up a touchdown to a tight end - and Strange is yet to score one this season - he caught six of seven targets in each of his last two games.

Jaguars tight end Hunter Long (+1800 anytime touchdown scorer odds) has received all three of the team's red-zone targets to the position. While he caught all three and scored two touchdowns inside the opponents' 20-yard line, Strange remains the safer player with a more consistent role in the offense and the chance to break a bigger play against Kansas City."