How does New Orleans -7 over Arizona make sense?

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  • poochiecollins
    SBR MVP
    • 01-27-09
    • 1782

    #1
    How does New Orleans -7 over Arizona make sense?
    Looking at each of their last few games, discarding the NC and GB games where starters scantily played, I don't see how one could unequivocally say that New Orleans is even the better team right now. The trends that I'm aware of further support Arizona. Most people are taking ARI according to covers.com.
  • BigdaddyQH
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 07-13-09
    • 19530

    #2
    Most people lose in this business. I amnot saying that New Orleans is the play here, but Arizona played a near perfect offensive game against Green Bay, and still needed a huge amount of breaks and calls to go their way to win that game. They will not be as good offensively against New Orleans. The Saints did not win14 games in a row by acident. They played a much tougher schedule than Arizona did. They are playing at home. They have a better defense than Arizona does, and their offense, with Brees, is just as potent. You can argue this game both ways.
    Comment
    • ezmoney
      SBR MVP
      • 09-26-09
      • 1564

      #3
      NO 4-1 ATS vs AZ last five at home, last time they played 12/16/07, SAINTS 31-24, line was 4.
      Comment
      • LT Profits
        SBR Aristocracy
        • 10-27-06
        • 90963

        #4
        Saints haven't had a good offensive showing in a month, they may come out rusty. Arizona First Half could be good here, but the play I REALLY like is the Under for the game.
        Comment
        • ZBOIZ
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 06-22-08
          • 21464

          #5
          Saints the last two months has been very unhealthy. They were without there starting corners, Shockey, Bush, WR Lance Moore, also 2 starting linebackers. Everyone is healthy now and when they are fully healthy they are the best team in the NFL!
          Comment
          • Sidetracked
            SBR Wise Guy
            • 09-21-09
            • 751

            #6
            couldnt agree more zboiz
            Comment
            • Slanina
              SBR MVP
              • 01-21-09
              • 3828

              #7
              37-28 saints! lol
              Comment
              • sooner13
                SBR Sharp
                • 05-06-09
                • 426

                #8
                Originally posted by BigdaddyQH
                Most people lose in this business. I amnot saying that New Orleans is the play here, but Arizona played a near perfect offensive game against Green Bay, and still needed a huge amount of breaks and calls to go their way to win that game. They will not be as good offensively against New Orleans. The Saints did not win14 games in a row by acident. They played a much tougher schedule than Arizona did. They are playing at home. They have a better defense than Arizona does, and their offense, with Brees, is just as potent. You can argue this game both ways.
                I respect your opinion Big but I believe you're mistaken when you say N.O. played a tougher schedule than AZ. The Saints had the easiest schedule in the league. Take a look: Tampa twice (one loss), ATL twice (barely beat a backup QB last time) DET, WASH(who took them to OT), STL (whom they only beat by 5 pts.), BUF, MIA (had to come from way behind to win) Cmon, harder schedule? I think not.
                Comment
                • icancount2one
                  SBR MVP
                  • 01-05-10
                  • 1507

                  #9
                  Originally posted by ZBOIZ
                  Saints the last two months has been very unhealthy. They were without there starting corners, Shockey, Bush, WR Lance Moore, also 2 starting linebackers. Everyone is healthy now and when they are fully healthy they are the best team in the NFL!

                  This is the answer right here. The Saints don't have a whole lot of depth on their defense, and with their starting corners hurt, they looked lackluster on D. Everybody's healthy, which is going to create turnover opportunities for Darren Sharper and better field position for Drew Brees.
                  Walter forgot... when you're desperate's when you got no choice.
                  Comment
                  • steviec413
                    SBR Rookie
                    • 01-14-10
                    • 45

                    #10
                    i love no in this one
                    sbr
                    Comment
                    • alukk
                      SBR MVP
                      • 01-29-09
                      • 1544

                      #11
                      i like NO here, i think they didnt give the 100% in the last 3 games i dont even think they gave the 80%, they didnt want to show up their book neither ask for hard work to the players, saints -4 1st H is my play
                      Comment
                      • Mr Handicapable
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 09-23-07
                        • 6067

                        #12
                        Beanie Wells is going to rumble on these guys to give Warner some balance! The Saints are pretenders...they may get by Arizona on turnovers because the Cards do get sloppy w/the ball at times but the Dallas/Minny winner beats them by double digits if they make it to next week!
                        Comment
                        • 6_Feet_Under
                          SBR High Roller
                          • 12-21-09
                          • 105

                          #13
                          The way the 2 teams have been playing it doesn't make an sense.That is why the Saints win this game-easily.Or are the linesmakers just giving all you Cards backers an easy gift?Really,think about it people.Another point,coming off the game last week where they totally emptied their tanks do you really think they're gonna be able to crank it up again this week..............having to travel,on a short week against a team that's superior to them?The Cards get smashed bad in this game.
                          sbr
                          Comment
                          • The General
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 08-10-05
                            • 13279

                            #14
                            I don't think Kurt can offer up the same type of performance as last Sunday night.
                            Comment
                            • Serbone
                              SBR MVP
                              • 09-21-09
                              • 1300

                              #15
                              AZ juat destroyed the so called solid GB "D" for 51 points.

                              GB was supposed to be the hottest team in the NFL.

                              NO has not impressed against playoff caliber teams... everyone still enamored with them early, but some of their early wins that impressed (like blowing out the Giants, and later victory vs NE) were not what we thought they were...

                              GB offense is slightly better than NO, and GB defense is definitely better than NO.

                              AZ is better than last yr... running game is MUCH better!

                              Take the proven squad, AZ, + 7!
                              Comment
                              • PAULYPOKER
                                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                • 12-06-08
                                • 36581

                                #16
                                Arizona has developed a rushing attack through the season that is gaining strength at the most important time PLAYOFFS!!! Kurt Warner is the most productive and proven QB in post season in over a Decade bar-none. Since when did you hear of a QB throwing more touchdowns than in-completions 5 TDs and 4 in-completions against the #2 defense in the NFL! Now as far as the Saints go they have basically turned into a mediocre team over night their running game has diminished to practically nonexistent which took the air right out of their offense as a whole. Hell they lost to the worst team in the NFL Tampa Bay if you ask me as of now the Cards are proven and the Aints are not. odds makers in my opinion are way off on this one folks holy shit I could not believe my eyes when I first saw the line. The line should be Saints pick or -3 at best.
                                Bottom line I see this game as a shootout or a blowout handed out by the Cardinals&company either way I think Cards are a solid cover.
                                Comment
                                • xxdjstriderxx
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 11-25-08
                                  • 4740

                                  #17
                                  new orleans is -7 because of their regular season performance.

                                  being at home also accounts for part of the spread

                                  however, playoffs is a completely different ballgame.

                                  give me +7 and the qb with super bowl experience any day
                                  Comment
                                  • WileOut
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 02-04-07
                                    • 3844

                                    #18
                                    6.5 teaser. NO down to ML and total up to 63.5 (get the 9 TD's with the hook).
                                    Comment
                                    • lakerboy
                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                      • 04-02-09
                                      • 94379

                                      #19
                                      guys the saints are going to beat arizona so bad on saturday i feel sorry for anyone betting on the cards
                                      Comment
                                      • Jonah
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 10-21-09
                                        • 4042

                                        #20
                                        Arizona has played near perfect Offensively in their last four playoff games...Basically by taking the Saints, you are saying that this is going to stop....And New Orleans is going to be the team to stop them. I knew that was how the GB game would go because I give Rodgers extremely high marks and trust him as a QB damn near implicitly...Brees obviously is good too and has mounted a come back or two on his own, but is not as "cool of a customer" as Rodgers IMO.
                                        Better at some things, just a little more prone to getting rattled... a little....
                                        Comment
                                        • ZBOIZ
                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                          • 06-22-08
                                          • 21464

                                          #21
                                          Saints 38

                                          Cards 21
                                          Comment
                                          • MartinBlank
                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                            • 07-20-08
                                            • 8382

                                            #22
                                            I loaded up on Arizona.

                                            200 +7, and another 150 on the money line.

                                            Good luck to you guys.
                                            Comment
                                            • Jonah
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 10-21-09
                                              • 4042

                                              #23
                                              I was going to say something about the total, but I will have a lot more analysis to do - check out my "process" thread coming soon if you want to dig into this game.
                                              Comment
                                              • WhatAboutMeBitch
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 01-02-09
                                                • 1294

                                                #24
                                                both these teams kinda had weak schedules in the regular season. I like to pick the teams that seem to be hot. there is no way to tell with the Saints. but they haven't played good vs a good team in a long time
                                                Comment
                                                • PAULYPOKER
                                                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                  • 12-06-08
                                                  • 36581

                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by lakerboy
                                                  Bro i respect you alot because you post good insight but the cards are a public play on all sights that show public %- the line will hold stiff all week and the saints will pump them
                                                  Originally posted by lakerboy
                                                  guys the saints are going to beat arizona so bad on saturday i feel sorry for anyone betting on the cards
                                                  Lakerboy So what you are saying is that the game is fixed and all you have to do is bet against the public and it's a guaranteed win. Don't you wish it was that easy well the fact is it is not. It may look like that at times but what it is in a nut shell is odds makers strategically placing lines to get the public to jump on what the oddsmakers believe will be the opposite side of the outcome and yes LB even they are wrong around 40+% of the time
                                                  Comment
                                                  • ZBOIZ
                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                    • 06-22-08
                                                    • 21464

                                                    #26
                                                    Saints easy
                                                    Comment
                                                    • 6_Feet_Under
                                                      SBR High Roller
                                                      • 12-21-09
                                                      • 105

                                                      #27
                                                      Agreed Lakerboy,only a sucker plays Arizona in this spot.Actually,I believe you're the one who made an assinine statement about the game being fixed on your post Pauly.
                                                      sbr
                                                      Comment
                                                      • warriorfan707
                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                        • 03-29-08
                                                        • 13698

                                                        #28
                                                        Im starting to lean Zona
                                                        Comment
                                                        • MartinBlank
                                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                                          • 07-20-08
                                                          • 8382

                                                          #29
                                                          The Saints have not given up fewer than 20 points in a game since November.

                                                          And if you want to take it further------they have given up 20 or more points in 10 of their last 12 games.

                                                          The Cards shredded the NFC's #2 scoring defense.

                                                          Anyone really expecting the Saints to stop the Cards?
                                                          Comment
                                                          • 6_Feet_Under
                                                            SBR High Roller
                                                            • 12-21-09
                                                            • 105

                                                            #30
                                                            Does not matter if they stop them,just who scores the most points.The Cards were also HOME and their D gave up 45(wow).Now they have to travel on a short week.That's fine if they give up 20 a game............since they average scoring 32.
                                                            sbr
                                                            Comment
                                                            • ZBOIZ
                                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                                              • 06-22-08
                                                              • 21464

                                                              #31
                                                              Also since October the Saints will finally have both starting corners, and both outside linebackers start at the same time.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • poochiecollins
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 01-27-09
                                                                • 1782

                                                                #32
                                                                Originally posted by ezmoney
                                                                NO 4-1 ATS vs AZ last five at home, last time they played 12/16/07, SAINTS 31-24, line was 4.
                                                                Corrected, thanks. Covers.com inexplicably includes pre-season games in head-to-head history, apparently -_-
                                                                Comment
                                                                • MartinBlank
                                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                  • 07-20-08
                                                                  • 8382

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by ZBOIZ
                                                                  Also since October the Saints will finally have both starting corners, and both outside linebackers start at the same time.
                                                                  Z, how about a 300 point bet?

                                                                  Give me the Cards plus the 7 for 300 points?

                                                                  Deal?
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • TUDINH
                                                                    SBR High Roller
                                                                    • 10-31-08
                                                                    • 148

                                                                    #34
                                                                    go NO -7 good game guys
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • poochiecollins
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 01-27-09
                                                                      • 1782

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Originally posted by 6_Feet_Under
                                                                      The way the 2 teams have been playing it doesn't make an sense.That is why the Saints win this game-easily.Or are the linesmakers just giving all you Cards backers an easy gift?Really,think about it people.Another point,coming off the game last week where they totally emptied their tanks do you really think they're gonna be able to crank it up again this week..............having to travel,on a short week against a team that's superior to them?The Cards get smashed bad in this game.
                                                                      Did you just start following football this past fall? :-p See the Cards last year.
                                                                      Comment
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