Chargers will win the afc west and they are + 550

tblues2005 · 10-27-09, 06:57 PM

I disagree with you that the Broncos are going to lose to Washington. Washington is horrible!

The Chargers do have the advantage with the schedule that is true. I do think that Cincy could beat SD and Dallas at home will be tough also. The Chargers first will have to beat Denver in Denver and that will be difficult. I wouldn't take them at +550. I would want higher odds than that.

nobs · 10-27-09, 07:18 PM

I am counting the Washington game as win for Denver and the Dallas game as a loss for San Diego.

I am counting the Cincy game as a win for San Diego and I think they will win that one pretty easily. The 3 NFC East games, I am assuming san Diego goes 1-2 as I think they will get one of them.

I agree the game at Denver will be a tough game, but the ML in that game wont be higher than -250 on Denver so that to me shows this division line is out of wack. they have Denver at -700 when Denver to me Absolultey has to beat San Diego at Denver and they arent more than 70% likely to do that, I would say closer to 55%, but a -700 says its an 88% likelihood.

Now, I realize a lot of people are going to say Denver could lose to San Diego and still win the West. I just have to say no. Whoever wins that game wins the Afc West. San Diego wins that game and that pretty much ties things up because Denver isn't beating Baltimore or Pittsburgh so that gives them both 3 loses to the same 3 teams.

That leaves Denver with a game at Indianapolis which not only put an extra loss on Denver but put an Extra Division loss on Denver which gives San Diego the tiebreaker and a 1 game lead in the division. So San Diego if they go into Denver and win ( and they will ) could still get swept in the NFC East and win their division.

Admittedly San Diego cant lose in Cincinatti as that would throw the tiebreaker back up in the air.

Still, this San Diego play at +550 is stupid +EV and after this weekend when Baltimore beats Denver and San Diego probably puts up their second straight 25+ points thumping. I think a lot of gamblers will see the 2 game lead and Denvers tougher schedule and realize that all San Diego really has to do is when in Denver to be in pretty good shape. If so, we could see this line drop to something like Denver -225 or -200 as early as next week. Nice scalp.

Correction -- #3 Tiebreaker is common opponents which would also be a tie.

DV92Camaro · 10-27-09, 07:22 PM

The Chargers will win AFC West? Hahaa. Hey, the Broncos were suppose to lose to Dallas, Patriots, and more importantly Chargers in their own house. I don't quite think you know what kind of defensive scheme Denver is running. I'll leave that to you. Remember, Denver has ONLY allowed 3 points in the 2nd half's in the last 5 games and 10 points thru the whole year.

Baltimore being favored is beyond me but I'll be glad to take the points.

nobs · 10-27-09, 07:34 PM

I cant say Denver hasn't played well this year, obviously they are 6-0 with some nice wins. I just think another thing that gets missed is that it is hard for any team to play such good teams every week.

You get banged up and by the middle of the season you are going to see a different Denver team. They are 6-0, cant take that away from them, but they have played 3 shit teams and they have won a lot of close games.

They arent getting any breaks now as their games against KC and Oakland are at the end of the season. A 3 game lead looks huge but we have to remember that San Diego was losing to Baltimore and Pittsburgh while Denver was beating Oakland and Cleveland.

Denver just hasn't taken their losses to Baltimore and Pittsburgh yet. and The New England win by Denver isn't going to factor in because San Diego doesnt have to play NE.

I simply think that one team goes 6-0 and a 3 game lead and the books have to run that number up to -700 or -800 to avoid every tom dick and harry from jumping on board. In this case, that number is way way way way too high. The Chargers + 550 is one of, if not the most +EV non - bad line I have ever seen. I think what isnt being seen clearly enough is the fact that the Broncos are in huge trouble with that power schedule if they dont win at home against SD. Like I said That game will decide this division and that game will probably be ML -200 on Denver and maybe even lower if SD keeps putting up 30 point wins.

nobs · 10-27-09, 07:35 PM

Seriously,

what will the AFC WEST line be if Denver loses at Baltimore Sunday ?

Denver -250 ?

Dark Horse · 10-27-09, 08:59 PM

I think a lot of people have yet to come to terms with how much worse the Chargers are than in the past.

LT can't run sh*t anymore. He has done nothing without Lorenzo Neal blocking for him, but so far he's been able to blame it on injuries. Merriman is not a shadow of his old self, and the pass defense sucks. Their D-line is not getting to the QB. Rivers is good, but that's the only top player they have left.

Meanwhile, the Broncos are rolling. They're winning games they shouldn't be winning. That's exactly what winning teams do. Finding ways to win. Their coach is really something else. Norv Turner is not on the same page, nor will he ever be.

You may as well face it. The Chargers have missed their window of opportunity. They're not getting better anymore. They're on the way down.

DV92Camaro · 10-27-09, 09:17 PM

The Chargers have ran the crap out of LT. I notice LT has put on some pounds and is slower now than he ever was. Some people don't recognize these little things but they play a huge role. Remember Chargers were No.1 in the league in passing at home and Denver handled it nicely. I even called it with my cousin that Royal well have a HUGE role and Norv Turner was nervous in pre-game. There was also some **** talking before the game between both teams before tha game started. I call it mind games. But hey, my friend argued with me to take the Chargers and the over. I said no.

nobs · 10-27-09, 10:28 PM

What I think people dont realize is that the Broncos have a damn hard schedule left and while they have been playing over their heads, they have a lot of losses coming up. To make them a -700 favorite to win this division is a joke, and I am sorry if the world cant see that +550 on san Diego is madly +EV.

I think most of the gambling world just goes around betting the favorite and over because after all, the favorite has the better record therefore must be the better team. LOL. Maybe I will even lay -700 on them.

Before this season started all there were was threads about how bad the Broncos were gonna suck and how the team total of 7 was a lock for the under. I dont remember reading a word about the Broncos having a shot in hell at winning this division, now everyone is all Broncos Broncos Broncos. LOL.

Thats the nature of the gambling beast I guess, just jump on that 6-0 bandwagon without really thinking much about whether this has been a 3 week fluke. I am glad that the case though, because I got me some more of that +550 +EV bet today.

Just cant wait to see the earthquake caused by the masses jumping off the Broncos bandwagon Sunday night when they are 6-1 and the Chargers are 4-3, and next sunday after Pittsburgh beats them and The Broncos are 6-2 and the Chargers are 5-3 and the gambling world starts to realize that there aint no way in hell they will be cashing their -700 Broncos AFC West ticket.

I will be able to buy back the Broncos at +100 or -120 in 12 nights if I wanted to.

Then there will be no Broncos backers, just a world of people claiming they were " all over" that Chargers bet at +550. Just like last year when the Broncos blew a 3 game lead with 3 games remaining.

I am just saying it 2 weeks in advance.

Deceptive · 10-30-09, 01:20 AM

So between cincy dallas n.e. And your s.d. In which denver went 4-0 thats not a tough schedule already, my friend +550 is how the books draw you in and take your money, s.d. Has no run game and no run d a recipe for disaster luck runs out on them remember they did not even win 10 games last year just think straight and dont get fooled by seeing a line like +550
p.s. Go heavy on chicago, houston and g.b. This week

Ace_of_Spades · 10-30-09, 01:23 AM

Nobs is an idiot.

OvertimePlease · 10-30-09, 01:58 AM

I'll put some real money on this with you on a 2 for 1 deal. If san diego does win the division i'll pay you a grand, if they don't you only gotta pay me half. Sound good?

frostno98 · 10-30-09, 02:44 AM

Denver will win the West. They will beat the Chefs twice, and the Raiders again, and then Washington giving them 10 wins, that alone might clinch them the division. This team is way too discipline under Coach McDaniels, to get lax and not play the bad teams seriously this year. And they'll pick up two more wins somewhere else giving them 12 total and 1st round bye. Those two wins will probably come from the Steelers, Giants, or San Diego at home, or at Philly, since McNabb sux. I definately see them losing to the Ravens and Colts on the road.

nobs · 10-30-09, 11:52 AM

Originally posted by OvertimePlease

I'll put some real money on this with you on a 2 for 1 deal. If san diego does win the division i'll pay you a grand, if they don't you only gotta pay me half. Sound good?

Dude its +550 not +200

nobs · 10-30-09, 11:55 AM

Originally posted by frostno98

Denver will win the West. They will beat the Chefs twice, and the Raiders again, and then Washington giving them 10 wins, that alone might clinch them the division. This team is way too discipline under Coach McDaniels, to get lax and not play the bad teams seriously this year. And they'll pick up two more wins somewhere else giving them 12 total and 1st round bye. Those two wins will probably come from the Steelers, Giants, or San Diego at home, or at Philly, since McNabb sux. I definately see them losing to the Ravens and Colts on the road.

I will give them the Chiefs twice and the Raiders and Washington ( maybe ). That is 10 wins, but that wont win them the division.

Its easy to overlook San Diego since they are only 3-3 but they will finish 10-6 at worse probably 11-5 and in the 10-6 scenario they would get the tiebreaker assuming they win in Denver.

The Broncos are going to lose to Giants, Colts, Chargers, Ravens, Steelers, Eagles, and maybe even Redskins.

BigdaddyQH · 10-30-09, 12:40 PM

Nice dream, but let's look at reality. San Diego will lose at least 3 more games, on the road to New York, Dallas and Denver. That gives them 6 losses and a tie breaker loss against Denver. That means that Denver will have to lose 7 games of their remaining 10. Of those remaining games, two are against Kansas City and one is against Oakland at home. So what you are saying is that Denver will lose to every team they play against except the two Kansas City games and the one against Okalnad, while San Diego will win every one of their remaining games except those at New York, Dallas, and Denver. Good luck with that.

nobs · 10-31-09, 12:54 PM

bigdaddy,

I already said I know that San Diego HAS to win the game at Denver. I said that in the first writeup.

Whoever wins the game at Denver wins this division. That is 100%. The thing is that game will have a ML of -200 to -250 and Denver has a division ML of -700.

Denver cannot win this division without winning that game at Denver. They can't.

This is the same thing as one book having the Denver San diego game up at ML -700 takeback +550
and all the other books having the game at ML -200 takeback +170, and everyone wants to argue me that the +550 is not +EV. PLEASE.

Anything can happen in sports, obviously any team can win any game. We are looking to bet +EV and by doing that we wont win 100% but we will win long term guaranteed.

You can dissect these schedules any way you want and the fact is that you will come up with Denver having to win in Denver to win this division. That is the reason that you have assumed another Denver win against San Diego, when I already aid I am assuming a San Diego win in that game. You still assume a Denver win, because deep down you know that is the ONLY way they win the division.

I assume a San Diego win because I have San Diego at +550 and I will hedge Denver in that game at probably -200 Ml and if Denver wins it, my profit is locked in.

I would take +550 on a team that only has to win a game where it will be a -200 dog any day of the week and in a while I would be a millionaire.

That San Diego/ Denver game will decide this division and it will be lined -200. The Greek has conference odds San Diego +1400 Denver +700, it also has Superbowl odds San Diego +2500 Denver +1400.

Yet Denver is -700 to win their division ???????????????????????????????????????? ?? If anyone cant see that the division is lined wrong here, then im sorry. You can look at their conference and Superbowl odds and see that something isnt right.

whatsgood5 · 10-31-09, 12:59 PM

No ****ing way Denver loses to the skins, other than that, I pretty much agree with everything else you said though. Good write-up!

nobs · 10-31-09, 01:20 PM

Thanks whats good.

I just have a feeling that Washington matches up well with Denver, but I am counting that as a Denver win. Dont need that loss for the Chargers to win this division.

CaptainPrice · 10-31-09, 01:46 PM

You're way under estimating McDaniels

you're saying the broncos all the sudden will become horrible and san diego will miraculously turn their season around. Denver will win 1 or both games against balt and pitt. Kill the redskins, win 1 of the SD NY matchups win the chiefs, toss up in INDY, beat the raider, philly and probably sit their starter during the KC game and win. that puts them around 13-3
SD will at best be 10-6 or 9-7
this aint last year

nobs · 11-02-09, 03:36 PM

funny how quiet this thread got after yesterdays games. I figured a 23 point Bronco loss would do that.

Now next week, I see the Chargers are a 3 point dog AT GIANTS and the Broncos are a 3 point dog AT HOME Against the Steelers.

That make sense to anyone ??????

The Broncos were -700 to win the division but now the Chargers are on the road and the Broncos are at home and the Chargers are playing a better team and the line is the same for both teams --- +3.

Well, anyways I just found the Broncos to win the division at -350. So I already won. Still, I will wait for the Broncos/ Chargers game to hedge. I am just wondering if any of you yet see what was obvious last week ------- There is NO WAY IN HELL the Broncos can win this division without beating the Chargers in Denver -- a game they will probably be -170 to -200 ML in. ( Yet they were -700 to win the division. LOL )

nobs · 11-02-09, 03:46 PM

Originally posted by CaptainPrice

you're saying the broncos all the sudden will become horrible and san diego will miraculously turn their season around.

Denver will win 1 or both games against balt and pitt.

Lost one by 23, underdog in the other one.

Kill the redskins

Give me + 7 1/2 and I will bet anything you want

win 1 of the SD NY matchups

I already said the SD game is mute because I am hedging that game. I WANT the Broncos to win that game.

win the chiefs,

I already gave them that win.

toss up in INDY

you're out of your mind

, beat the raider, philly and probably sit their starter during the KC game and win.

that puts them around 13-3

There is a better chance that you and I will sleep with Miss Universe then Denver will finish 13-3

SD will at best be 10-6 or 9-7
this aint last year

Where were all you Denver lovers at the start of the year when there were no less than 4 threads started in this very forum talking about how bad the Broncos were going to suck this year, yet none of you came in to say one word about how good the Broncos were going to be.

Jumping on the bandwagon is a good way to lose a lot of $$$$$$$$$$$

frostno98 · 11-02-09, 05:23 PM

We'll the Baltimore lost was completely expected by me, and probably next week vs Pittsburgh as well. The Chargers might even win nine games, if they're struggling against the pitiful Raiders. And they definitely won't beat Denver in Denver playing like that.

nobs · 11-02-09, 07:21 PM

Originally posted by frostno98

We'll the Baltimore lost was completely expected by me, and probably next week vs Pittsburgh as well. The Chargers might even win nine games, if they're struggling against the pitiful Raiders. And they definitely won't beat Denver in Denver playing like that.

Stuggling against the Raiders ????

Struggling = 21 to 7 lead right before halftime

Struggling = Never trailed one time in the entire game

Struggling = 266 passing yards vs. 81 passing yards

Struggling = 346 total yards vs. 180 total yards

"Baltimore lost was Completely expected by me " = I ( NOBS ) was the ONLY one who said Baltimore beats Denver BEFORE the game.

All I remember hearing was how they didnt give up any points, especially in the second half. LOL. They gave up 24 in the second half yesterday, and they trailed the Entire game. The Chargers played the Ravens much closer.

Maybe Denver will win the next game against San Diego, but they were -700 which was a crazy stupid line.

Some of you guys act like you would lay -5000 on a coin flip and then brag when you win.

nobs · 11-02-09, 07:24 PM

I know you cant judge by one week, but you can talk all you want about how the Chargers supposedly struggled against the Raiders, but if you want to look at yesterdays performance, I would be real worried about those Broncos.

Their offense hasnt been good all year and their defense looked like shit yesterday. I hope the Giants turn in another shit performance Monday because then we are looking at a 1 game difference next Tuesday morning ( and then you will be here saying how you completely expected it LOL ). But then again, I said that last week.

tcarn01 · 11-02-09, 07:54 PM

Sweet. Go sd!!!!

frostno98 · 11-02-09, 08:33 PM

I'm done talking here, Charger won't even make it into the Playoffs. This Charger debate is over, my delusional friend, but keep dreaming though.

nobs · 11-02-09, 09:02 PM

You are done talking now ?

LOL. All your other Bronco fans in this thread were done talking yesterday as soon as the team they built up as the next dynasty got its ass SPANKED 30-7 as well.

Jumping on board the team with a 3 game lead may seems easy but you might find out its a harder road then you think. Anyone can jump on board the team with a 3 game lead, takes more guts to play the team everyone else has written off.

Like I said, there were numerous "the Broncos are gonna suck" threads in this very forum before the season started and none of these folks were anywhere to be found.

But boy did that Bronco bandwagon fill up quick, we will see how fast they jump off now ( with their -700 AFC WEST losing tickets ) LOL.

nobs · 11-02-09, 09:08 PM

LOL

I just decided to search for some of those DENVER HATING threads that started before the season

Guess who started the biggest one.

FROSTNO98

WHAT A ****ING JOKE.

BEFORE THE SEASON -- FROSTNO OPENS THREAD THAT SAYS

" BRONCOS WONT WIN MORE THAN 6 GAMES "

LOL LOL LOL

How did that work out for you there Frostno ??????

I see you have done a 180 degree flip here.

Now your first post in this thread, you declare that they are going to win 12 games.

LOL

That is ****ing pathetic, sir.

no matter what happens with my Chargers play, I wont be switching sides every week.

Deceptive · 11-02-09, 11:51 PM

Originally posted by nobs

lol

i just decided to search for some of those denver hating threads that started before the season

guess who started the biggest one.

Frostno98

what a ****ing joke.

Before the season -- frostno opens thread that says

" broncos wont win more than 6 games "

lol lol lol

how did that work out for you there frostno ??????

I see you have done a 180 degree flip here.

Now your first post in this thread, you declare that they are going to win 12 games.

Lol

that is ****ing pathetic, sir.

No matter what happens with my chargers play, i wont be switching sides every week.

hey nobs you are a moron, really all you can do is bring up s.d. Stats against the raiders dude s.d. Loses by 10 next week then show me some stats. Nothing you have said even makes sense what about a 8 win team from last year that is slower makes you think they win 10 much less 11 l.t. Disappears the second half of the season and norv just keeps sucking just make sure you dont go away when you have to face the facts

nobs · 11-05-09, 01:08 PM

Deceptive,

I realize you cant read, but I already won. LOL. I dont need the Chargers to win another game this year, I got them at +550 last week and now the Broncos are -300. I know you dont understand this, but that is a guaranteed profit either way.

That is a lot more than can be said for Frostno's $1000 bet on the Broncos under 7 season wins. LOL. A bet he laid -175 on.

nobs · 11-05-09, 01:10 PM

Originally posted by frostno98

Originally Posted by frostno98
You can bank on it. I'm putting 1k for under 7 Broncos wins at -175. This should be an easy bet. Denver has not really address their defensive problems, their front seven is still despicable. This is the same horrible defense from last year that gave up 30 points with ease. This time around, they won't have an offense that will give this team a fighting chance with Kyle Orton at the helm. I see maybe a 5 wins season here, and tie for last place with the Raiders.

CaptainPrice · 11-05-09, 08:26 PM

Broncos will still win AFC west
1st off their D didn't look like shit, ur saying that because the end score. If you had watched the entire game Denvers D was not bad at all. If it werent for the kickoff return the score woulda been a lot closer and competetive

Im not a bandwagon fan i know my stuff

You are laughing at the games I say are toss ups. If I had said Dallas , NE and Cincy were comig up and that the broncos would win youd say im crazy

Its not like the chargers are any good . Theyve regressed. Theyve shown the ability to lose close games and strugle with the raiders. Im not betting on that. Maybe the real find here is the great odds now for denver

nobs · 11-05-09, 11:00 PM

Well if you're interested 5 dimes ( A+ BOOK ) has it at -300 still, I just checked.

It is play number 2133 listed under NFL Props.

DENVER wins the AFC WEST -300

nobs · 11-05-09, 11:00 PM

* Last week it was -700