Chicago Bears, Cincinnati Bengals assault total, go Over 42½
Sunday, October 25, 2009
By: "Reload" Joe Freda | reload.mysbrforum.com
The Bears defense is starting to feel the absence of Brian Urlacher, while the Bengals allowed a whopping 385 passing yards last week, which doesn’t bode well vs. Cutler. Go Over.
Last week, the Chicago Bears and Cincinnati Bengals each went down in defeat only scoring 14 and 17 points, respectively. With both looking to get back on the winning track and neither playing particularly good defense this season, this handicapper looks for a shootout on the turf of Paul Brown Stadium.
With the Bears traveling to Atlanta last week off a bye, they looked to have a solid chance of gaining their fourth win in a row but allowing a late touchdown caused both a defeat and a blown cover for them. The Chicago defense allowed two touchdowns by Atlanta on both of the Falcon trips to the red zone, as well as in three out of four trips by the lowly Detroit Lions two weeks earlier.
The absence of Brian Urlacher for the Bears is what may be starting to catch up with them. In the first two games Urlacher missed, it was still business as usual for Chicago as they held the Pittsburgh Steelers to 14 points back in Week 2 and allowed only one touchdown from the Seattle Seahawks in Week 3.
But as the season goes on, fans and gamblers alike start forgetting that the Bears may not be “who they thought they were” and more points are starting to be given up. In looking back at Week 2 and Week 3, being at home against the Steelers certainly helped give up less points than usual and having to stop Seneca Wallace at quarterback was not the tallest order in Seattle.
The Bengals had a letdown loss at home last week against the Houston Texans giving up four touchdowns including two of them on longer plays from outside the red zone. Cincinnati has one of the worst defenses in the league against the pass and gave up 385 yards to Houston through the air last week which was over a hundred yards higher than an already high average of 255 yards per game.
While quarterback Jay Cutler of the Bears has had some up’s and down’s this season, he should be getting just what the doctor ordered in facing the Bengals defense to get back on track with some big numbers today.
Although you will not find the Bengals offense at the top of the statistics this season, there have been times when they have shown some big sparks. Back in Week 2 against the Packers, Cincinnati piled in four touchdowns on four trips to the red zone showing that they can carve some defenses up with the right game plan.
Last week, the Bengals went 2 for 2 in the red zone against the Texans but three turnovers cost them to only have the ball for 23 minutes which hurt their chances for even more trips there and turning them into points.
Cedric Benson of the Bengals has been in the news a lot this week talking about how the Bears tried to smear him throughout the league hoping no other teams would want him. Some feel this will add to Benson’s emotion this week when carrying the ball for Cincinnati and add to his already impressive 531 yards this season.
Benson has also had a touchdown in his last two games and I could picture him wanting the ball near the goal line if the situation comes up so that he can run up some scoring on the Bears.
Through the air, quarterback Carlson Palmer has been finding receiver Chad Ochocinco more often in the last couple of weeks. Ochocinco has notched his highest numbers for receptions and yards in the last two weeks, including his first game for over a hundred yards last week against the Texans. Although no touchdowns have come the way of Ochocinco since Week 4, I look for him to be a key target as the Bengals move the ball today.
When looking to take an Over, how teams have performed on third and fourth down conversions might be the most key statistic. This season, the Bengals have had 9 attempts at making a first down when faced with a fourth down situation and converted 8 times.
Numbers like this tell me Cincinnati knows when to run a play at the right time to get the money and continue a drive, or that they can be good at drawing penalties on an opponent. I feel this should come into play today against the Bears with both teams wanting to avoid consecutive losses, and risks having to be taken throughout the game.
The total for today’s matchup opened as high as 44 ½ by Bookmaker and did not come out at most books until Monday with the Bears playing Sunday night. It only took a few hours for early betting to steam the total down to as low as 41 ½ and I find myself in disagreement with the early action here.
Some may have been quick to take the under with a total around the mid 40’s since both the Bears and Bengals are coming in off low scoring performances last week. But there is a lot more to it than that - such as some points I have made above about what to expect from both teams today.
I felt that having the total at 45 or less was worth backing the over here and at press time it has settled at 42 ½. Some bettors feel that a total moving only a couple of points is not a big deal, but it can mean a lot as to whether you cash or not.
Last week’s game in Cincinnati went in the books as an Under with the combined scoring ending up at 45 between the Bengals and Texans when the total closed at 46 – but everyone is quick to forget that the total opened less than that and resulted in some cashing or pushing by taking the over early.
Some early bettors will quickly just look at how many recent games have gone over or under by both teams and forget that in some cases the total was decided by a point or less – as well as not determine why a game really went over or under.
Last week, the Tennessee Titans and New England Patriots came into Week 6 off of low scoring games the prior week and even added poor weather and field conditions to their equation which all made the Under look like a lock early and late in the week – but the Patriots showed up ready to make a statement and ran up the points at Gillette Stadium.
Look for the Bengals and Bears both wanting to make their own statement today and each hold up their end of the bargain today with two quarterbacks that can get it done and two defenses that will not stop them. Take the over 42 ½ and good luck.
Sunday, October 25, 2009
By: "Reload" Joe Freda | reload.mysbrforum.com
The Bears defense is starting to feel the absence of Brian Urlacher, while the Bengals allowed a whopping 385 passing yards last week, which doesn’t bode well vs. Cutler. Go Over.
Last week, the Chicago Bears and Cincinnati Bengals each went down in defeat only scoring 14 and 17 points, respectively. With both looking to get back on the winning track and neither playing particularly good defense this season, this handicapper looks for a shootout on the turf of Paul Brown Stadium.
With the Bears traveling to Atlanta last week off a bye, they looked to have a solid chance of gaining their fourth win in a row but allowing a late touchdown caused both a defeat and a blown cover for them. The Chicago defense allowed two touchdowns by Atlanta on both of the Falcon trips to the red zone, as well as in three out of four trips by the lowly Detroit Lions two weeks earlier.
The absence of Brian Urlacher for the Bears is what may be starting to catch up with them. In the first two games Urlacher missed, it was still business as usual for Chicago as they held the Pittsburgh Steelers to 14 points back in Week 2 and allowed only one touchdown from the Seattle Seahawks in Week 3.
But as the season goes on, fans and gamblers alike start forgetting that the Bears may not be “who they thought they were” and more points are starting to be given up. In looking back at Week 2 and Week 3, being at home against the Steelers certainly helped give up less points than usual and having to stop Seneca Wallace at quarterback was not the tallest order in Seattle.
The Bengals had a letdown loss at home last week against the Houston Texans giving up four touchdowns including two of them on longer plays from outside the red zone. Cincinnati has one of the worst defenses in the league against the pass and gave up 385 yards to Houston through the air last week which was over a hundred yards higher than an already high average of 255 yards per game.
While quarterback Jay Cutler of the Bears has had some up’s and down’s this season, he should be getting just what the doctor ordered in facing the Bengals defense to get back on track with some big numbers today.
Although you will not find the Bengals offense at the top of the statistics this season, there have been times when they have shown some big sparks. Back in Week 2 against the Packers, Cincinnati piled in four touchdowns on four trips to the red zone showing that they can carve some defenses up with the right game plan.
Last week, the Bengals went 2 for 2 in the red zone against the Texans but three turnovers cost them to only have the ball for 23 minutes which hurt their chances for even more trips there and turning them into points.
Cedric Benson of the Bengals has been in the news a lot this week talking about how the Bears tried to smear him throughout the league hoping no other teams would want him. Some feel this will add to Benson’s emotion this week when carrying the ball for Cincinnati and add to his already impressive 531 yards this season.
Benson has also had a touchdown in his last two games and I could picture him wanting the ball near the goal line if the situation comes up so that he can run up some scoring on the Bears.
Through the air, quarterback Carlson Palmer has been finding receiver Chad Ochocinco more often in the last couple of weeks. Ochocinco has notched his highest numbers for receptions and yards in the last two weeks, including his first game for over a hundred yards last week against the Texans. Although no touchdowns have come the way of Ochocinco since Week 4, I look for him to be a key target as the Bengals move the ball today.
When looking to take an Over, how teams have performed on third and fourth down conversions might be the most key statistic. This season, the Bengals have had 9 attempts at making a first down when faced with a fourth down situation and converted 8 times.
Numbers like this tell me Cincinnati knows when to run a play at the right time to get the money and continue a drive, or that they can be good at drawing penalties on an opponent. I feel this should come into play today against the Bears with both teams wanting to avoid consecutive losses, and risks having to be taken throughout the game.
The total for today’s matchup opened as high as 44 ½ by Bookmaker and did not come out at most books until Monday with the Bears playing Sunday night. It only took a few hours for early betting to steam the total down to as low as 41 ½ and I find myself in disagreement with the early action here.
Some may have been quick to take the under with a total around the mid 40’s since both the Bears and Bengals are coming in off low scoring performances last week. But there is a lot more to it than that - such as some points I have made above about what to expect from both teams today.
I felt that having the total at 45 or less was worth backing the over here and at press time it has settled at 42 ½. Some bettors feel that a total moving only a couple of points is not a big deal, but it can mean a lot as to whether you cash or not.
Last week’s game in Cincinnati went in the books as an Under with the combined scoring ending up at 45 between the Bengals and Texans when the total closed at 46 – but everyone is quick to forget that the total opened less than that and resulted in some cashing or pushing by taking the over early.
Some early bettors will quickly just look at how many recent games have gone over or under by both teams and forget that in some cases the total was decided by a point or less – as well as not determine why a game really went over or under.
Last week, the Tennessee Titans and New England Patriots came into Week 6 off of low scoring games the prior week and even added poor weather and field conditions to their equation which all made the Under look like a lock early and late in the week – but the Patriots showed up ready to make a statement and ran up the points at Gillette Stadium.
Look for the Bengals and Bears both wanting to make their own statement today and each hold up their end of the bargain today with two quarterbacks that can get it done and two defenses that will not stop them. Take the over 42 ½ and good luck.
