So far some on the Rams, Bears, Redskins, Steelers.
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Comment -
Originally posted by daneblazer
Looking on Bet Tracker right now and seeing all that. Regarding the Bears I see the line opened at 6 but SBR has it opening at 3.......which is correct?
Browns starting to show signs of RLM too.Comment -
Yes, so far there are some lines movements this weekend, but most of them are just half point movements which do not fit my criteria. So far the only one with a whole point movement are the Redskins.
Will most likely take the redskins and will look for future movement.
Good lookin out guysComment -
just put redskins in while i could still get 3.5, put bears in tooComment -
You people have to realize you cant just bet according line movement. You should use line movements to help you in making a decision after you have capped both teams
After watching the bears get torched by Arizona, I realize they have problems you can't just fix in 2 days. 49ers looked very good offensively. Bears offense is good also but seem to vaporize as soon as they start to to get behind or make mistakes.
I'm leaning on the 49ers right now.Comment -
I believe several of us realize that. However, RLM is rarely going to be in favor of the sexy team. There is a little RLM on the Rams and you couldn't pay me to be them this week.
Denver has really struggled to move the ball lately...and the Ravens defense isn't half as good as everyone thinks it is. The Skins aren't good, but up until last week they really haven't been blown out.Comment -
Week 9 RLMs (2-0) - 100%
TEN (32% of 17008 bets ) +5.5 to +4 (RLM 1.5) - W
CAR (33% of 9808 bets) +14.5 to +13.5 (RLM 1.0) - W
Overall: 9-1 (90%)
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Previous NFL RLM week results:
Week 5- 3-0 - 100%
Week 6- 2-0 - 100%
Week 7- 2-1 - 66.7%
Week 8- Nothing
Not too bad so far.....but remember the books are getting killed this year.Comment -
Week 10 RLMs:
WAS 19% (8927 bets) +4.5 (open) to +3.5: RLM 1.0
PIT 40% (8062 bets) -6.5 (open) to -7: RLM 0.5 - on borderline.
CLE 13% (10169 bets) +11 (open) to +10.5 : RLM 0.5
STL 12% (13355 bets) +14 (open) to +13.5 : RLM 0.5
Note: CHI at 44% bets...not an RLM by definition now.Comment -
Are you saying all three games with just a .5 line move are borderline or just Pitt because of the % of betters taking Pitt?Comment -
I take 40% of bets on a team as borderline RLM.Originally posted by GGPLAYER
If the % goes above 40% (41%,42%...) it is not an RLM since the #'s are close to 50/50; however, you can play it as an RLM. Perhaps you can take not being an RLM at greater than 45% bet on a team, but it is all a matter of experience since the closer the %'s ove towards 50/50, the RLMs winning percentages get progressibely worse.
Based on my experience, if the % is below 40% (39%, 38%...) it is a decent RLM.
If the % goes below 30% it is a very good RLM.
Similarly the larger the RLM, the better the chance of the RLM winning. RLMs of 1.0 or greater are obvioulsly more likely to pull through....however, as always, it is more important if the RLM moves through an important line value (3, 7, 10...)
Week 10 RLMs (updated):
PIT 40% (24202 bets) -6.5 (open) to -7: RLM 0.5 - on borderline since 40% bet on PIT.
WAS 17% (24773 bets) +4.5 (open) to +3.5: RLM 1.0
CLE 15% (22056 bets) +11 (open) to +10.5 : RLM 0.5
STL 16% (31267 bets) +14 (open) to +13.5 : RLM 0.5
GL RLMers this week.Comment -
Most of these are half points. I dont have the balls to take half points.Comment -
Week 10 RLMs (2-1) - 66.7% with one game TBD - CLE.
PIT 40% (24202 bets) -6.5 (open) to -7: RLM 0.5 - L
WAS 17% (24773 bets) +4.5 (open) to +3.5: RLM 1.0 - W
STL 16% (31267 bets) +14 (open) to +13.5 : RLM 0.5 - W
CLE 17% (48075 bets) +11 (open) to +10.5 : RLM 0.5 - TBD
Remember PIT was a borderline RLM; however by definition it was scored as a RLM.
Overall: 11-2 (84.6%)
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Previous NFL RLM week results:
Week 5- 3-0 - 100%
Week 6- 2-0 - 100%
Week 7- 2-1 - 66.7%
Week 8- Nothing
Week 9- 2-0 - 100%Comment -
Excellent jon13009Comment -
Jon if i may ask where do you get your numbers?Comment -
"Comment -
Did they work?Comment -
Send em over Rig.Comment -
NFL Week 10 RLMs (2-2) - 50% (Final)
PIT 40% (24202 bets) -6.5 (open) to -7: RLM 0.5 - L
WAS 17% (24773 bets) +4.5 (open) to +3.5: RLM 1.0 - W
STL 16% (31267 bets) +14 (open) to +13.5 : RLM 0.5 - W
CLE 17% (48075 bets) +11 (open) to +10.5 : RLM 0.5 - L
Overall: 11-3 (78.6%)
-----------------
Previous NFL RLM week results:
Week 5- 3-0 - 100%
Week 6- 2-0 - 100%
Week 7- 2-1 - 66.7%
Week 8- Nothing
Week 9- 2-0 - 100%Comment -
Miami, NY Jets and Hou........early signs of RLM.Comment -
Jets and Hou appear to have the most promise this week.
NYJ 23% (9,048 bets) +11(opened) to +10: RLM 1 point
Hou 35% (6,347 bets) -3.5(opened) to -4.5: RLM 1 point
Mia 33% (8,531 bets) +3.5(opened0 to +3: RLM .5 pointComment -
Week 11 RLM NFL (as listed by GGPlayer)
NYJ 23% (9,048 bets) +11(opened) to +10: RLM 1 point
Hou 35% (6,347 bets) -3.5(opened) to -4.5: RLM 1 point
Mia 33% (8,531 bets) +3.5(opened0 to +3: RLM .5 point
Yes, all three are RLMs.
HOU is the only home team though.
GL this week RLM players...Comment -
As of 1pm on Bet Tracker there seems to be some RLM on the Minny game too. Plus the Jet's line moved back up to +10.5 on many books. Would that cancel this one? Hou is my fav. play of all these. Half pointers are a little shaky.
Sea 23% (14,112 bets) +11 (opened) to +10.5: RLM .5 pointComment -
Love the Houston RLM because it is a 1 point movement and they are playing at home.
Definitely think Houston will cover this spread. Gonna ride hard on Houston.
Regarding the other games, only half point movements with away games. Don't really like half point movements.
Keep tracking W-L jon.
Comment -
Hey Toto-
Glad I got involved in your Wash/Den thread as I saw you're the OP of this thread and it lead me in here.
I like the "group approach" with this thread and am gonna be paying attn.
Anyway, I'm with you on the Houston play.
Also, one of my best areas is teasers. Has anyone thought of, or considered, combining teasers with RLMs?
i.e. 3 games show some (even if it's just .5) RLM, you book them in a 10 pt teaserIf you don't hang your balls out there and just do it, you'll never know what might have happened...
-- Valentino RossiComment -
Jon,
As of this very moment, NYJ are +10.5, not +10 (not a single book on sbrlines.com has NYJ @ +10 atm), therefore you only have a 1/2 pt movement on that line. Also, it's not even a full 1/2 point.. if you are using thespread.com, NYJ opened at +11 (-109) and they are currently listed as NYJ +10.5 (-102). You'd need +10.5 (-109) to call it a full 1/2 point move.
Having said that, I would be cautious with this play. This is a division rivalry game, NYJ are on the road and the Patriots will be steaming from last week's last-second loss to IND. Fading Belichick and a pissed off Pats team at home is an atrocious idea imo. HOU is by far the best (and quite frankly, the ONLY) RLM on the board this week for the NFL.
EDIT: as a matter of fact, 5D currently has NYJ @ +12.Comment -
Yes, thanks. I agree NYJs are a marginal RLM pick; however, I am tracking NFL RLMs on a week to week basis, and feel it is worthy of a selection (on a lower betting unit basis, say RLM of 0.5 = 0.5 unit bet for an away team...) since RLMs in the NFL tend to be rare (versus NCAA.)Originally posted by Pensinger1
Updated below.
NYJ 21% (19099 bets) +11.0 (opening line) to +10.5: RLM 0.5
HOU 33% (16462 bets) -3.5 (open) to -4.5: RLM 1.0
MIA 33% (8,531 bets) +3.5 (open) to +3: RLM .5 point
MIA 24 CAR 17 - WComment -
FYPOriginally posted by jon13009
If you are going to track this stuff, use accurate openers and closers as to not to confuse anyone following this thread. MIA closed at +3.5 on just about every book.. not really sure where you are getting your information from.Comment -
Originally posted by Pensinger1
That line did not push back up to 3.5 until closer to game time. Almost the entire week it was at 3. As for the Jet's game it was at 10 and then moved yesterday. Don't quote one book who is off by over 2 points from every other one out there. Sometimes it more about placing your bet at the correct time. We are using this as more of a guide than a standard. I think we have been doing a pretty good job of providing accurate and good data since the RLM plays listed on this thread have gone 10-1 (including Mia last night) since week 5. The point is if a game shows RLM no matter where the line ends up it can help point you in the correct direction on which team to wager.Comment -
I've been popping in and out of this thread and you guys are doing a great job!Comment -
If you took some time to look through this thread then you would know.Originally posted by Pensinger1
If you took some time to understand what we are doing then you would know.
If you really cared about what we are doing, then you would know.
I am not going to go through every line service and track every game for every book at every point in time. I am tracking the RLMs a day before they close and will not take the time to see at what value the games are a few hours before it closes.
If you want to track the RLM games properly then do it yourself.
If you know where public betting data is and why RLMs occur and determine the EXACT times to choose when lines close and at what value where they do then you arr FUC%KING insane.
If you understood the nature of RLMs then we are not interested in where the line closes at all.
I was hoping the level of reason and intelligence was going to stay above normal in this thread. I guess I was wrong. Someone was bound to poke their head in, wonder what the heck was going on and make a "hey I know everything and you guys are idiots" comment. Probably one of the posters hired by the books to muddle the waters.
The above comment is why I usually keep my participation in these threads to a minimum and why it is not worth my time to post as much in detail. In fact I was doing this due to the good nature of those involved in this thread.
Until now.
Because of the above comment I will not track RLMs anymore.
Furthermore, this is the end of my participation this tread.
Sorry Toto, that comment just pissed me off, and I was hoping I would make it through the season in this thread without some jerk ticking me off. Even goat's comments were justified. This idiot's comment just ended all interest in this thread for me.
I am sure you guys will keep up the good work.
GL to the RLMers who really understand where we are going and how to do this thing right.Comment -
I don't know why but something like this always happens here at SBR. Why do people come into threads and spread their negativity? Bummed to see you go Jon. I hope that maybe after the weekend you will reconsider.
Comment -
There's always trolls like this on this site. It's amazing how people come onto this site, don't build up a reputation, and then act like they are the best and carry themselves like gods.
Don't let it get to you. They're incompetent and are trying to compensate for their real life short comings.
Anyway, I just joined this thread and hopefully will get to see your postings going forward.
If you don't hang your balls out there and just do it, you'll never know what might have happened...
-- Valentino RossiComment -
I'm really into your threads. Don't go!Comment -
Originally posted by jon13009If you took some time to look through this thread then you would know.
If you took some time to understand what we are doing then you would know.
If you really cared about what we are doing, then you would know.
I am not going to go through every line service and track every game for every book at every point in time. I am tracking the RLMs a day before they close and will not take the time to see at what value the games are a few hours before it closes.
If you want to track the RLM games properly then do it yourself.
If you know where public betting data is and why RLMs occur and determine the EXACT times to choose when lines close and at what value where they do then you arr FUC%KING insane.
If you understood the nature of RLMs then we are not interested in where the line closes at all.
I was hoping the level of reason and intelligence was going to stay above normal in this thread. I guess I was wrong. Someone was bound to poke their head in, wonder what the heck was going on and make a "hey I know everything and you guys are idiots" comment. Probably one of the posters hired by the books to muddle the waters.
The above comment is why I usually keep my participation in these threads to a minimum and why it is not worth my time to post as much in detail. In fact I was doing this due to the good nature of those involved in this thread.
Until now.
Because of the above comment I will not track RLMs anymore.
Furthermore, this is the end of my participation this tread.
Sorry Toto, that comment just pissed me off, and I was hoping I would make it through the season in this thread without some jerk ticking me off. Even goat's comments were justified. This idiot's comment just ended all interest in this thread for me.
I am sure you guys will keep up the good work.
GL to the RLMers who really understand where we are going and how to do this thing right.
you [ ]'s don't have a clue as to what you are talking about..
TIP OF ADVICE: if you thought there was true RLM on the MIA/CAR game, then plz do yourselves a massively +EV favor and forget that sports-betting ever existed, cash out from any book you have monies on and stop the donations. There are several charities out there who would appreciate your money more than the books.
If anyone here really thinks that the record of "RLM plays" in the NFL is 10-1, you don't know.
If anyone here thinks that Jon has any idea what he's talking about, you don't know.
If anyone here thinks that Jon was actually posting for the "good nature" of those following this thread, you don't know.
If anyone in this thread really needs Jon's information on what "is" and "is not" RLM, you don't know.
And last of all, if anyone thinks that the closing line has no importance to the nature of RLM's, then you don't know.
Sadly enough, it appears that Jon himself does not know.
BOL to you Jon, may God have mercy on your bankroll.Comment -
Hey buddy this is his forum. If you don't like it then leave and make your own thread. If a RLM happens even for a slight second I want to know about it and I think he's been doing great.
Thanks JonComment
