NFL Underground Plays - Week 3

Killer Chihuahua · 09-23-09, 03:05 PM

Killer Plays

I will start this write up just like the Texans, Tampa Bay's defense is terrible. They can't stop run (28th). They can't contain the pass (32nd). They can't get to the quarterback (3 sacks). Even Gaines Adams, their No. 1 pick from 2007, might be benched. Even worse, starting safety/linebacker Jermaine Phillips is out for about two months. The Giants are going to terrorize the Buccaneers with Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw. Once Tampa realizes that it has to put 11 men in the box (ok, maybe 10) to hold New York to less than five yards per carry, Eli Manning will torch this anemic secondary with the emerging Steve Smith and Mario Manningham. Eli will not be pressured all afternoon.

The one thing the Buccaneers can do well is run the ball. Unfortunately, you can't run the ball if you're down 17-0 out of the gate. And here's some more bad news for the Bucs: Justin Tuck said he will play in this contest. If Tuck is in the game, Tampa won't be able to run the ball. Instead, Byron Leftwich and his slow throwing motion will have to beat the Giants.
This game has to be the Free Chicken Dinner of the Week! What scares me is how low this spread is and how much of a beating Vegas has taken in the NFL the past two weeks. This spread should be atleast 10. Instead it opened at seven and people are pounding the Giants (97% public money). Even worse, I just checked and some books have it at 6.5 (RLM).........this has trap all over it, or is this meant to look like a trap game. Average joe public would bet this game at -14 on the NYG so their money is going to be on the Giants anyway....Is this line made to make the heavy hitters, who know how much money Vegas lost the last two weeks, stay away from this game? We will find out SUNDAY!
New york giants -6 buy down from 6.5

Likes_to_win · 09-23-09, 03:06 PM

Originally posted by Killer Chihuahua

Killer Plays

Tennessee's defense has been ok at best this year. They played well in the first three quarters of the Steelers game, but it was very apparent that without Albert Haynesworth, they couldn't get to Ben Roethlisberger. Once Ben figured out that the secondary was weak, he mounted two sustained 4th quarter drives, and one in ot to win the game. Living in Houston, I watched the Titan/Texan game Sunday and they once again struggled to put any pressure on Matt Schaub, allowing the Texans quarterback to torch their secondary. While the Titans seem to match up well against New York's offense because they're still great at containing the run, I wouldn't count on them rattling Sanchez or stopping the Jets offense from putting up points on the board. With the Tenn linebackers trying to contain Jones up the gut and Washington on screens, the trio of Cotchery, Stuckey and Keller will be able to make plays down field.

The Titans offense did scored 31 last week, but didn't play particularly well. They scored on three huge plays from Chris Johnson because Houston's defense is completely inept... (one was a blown coverage that even my grandpa could have scored on). Otherwise, Tennessee wasn't exactly proficient in sustaining drives. They lost the time-of-possession battle by nine minutes.
Chris Johnson will not rush for 197 yards against the Jets. Kris Jenkins will make sure that doesn't happen. With the running game held to minimal gains, Kerry Collins will have to move the chains on his own in long-yardage situations. Given that the Jets bring tons of pressure and that Justin Gage will be a non-factor because of Darrelle Revis, I can't see the Titans putting up too many points in this contest.
The Titans are 0-2 and desperate for a win and their is public perception that the Jets will have a big letdown week after the upset of NE (Dexter). I think that's why the public isn't pounding the Jets. What the Tennessee backers don't realize is that this is also an important game for New York. The Titans are 0-2, but they are still considered among the elite teams in the NFL, so the Jets aren't going to just roll over. In fact, that's why this line isn't higher; Vegas is catering to public perception that this Tennessee squad is just as good as last year's.

It's not. Haynesworth is gone. The Titans no longer have a great defense. And Rex Ryan beat this squad back in January when he was with the Ravens, so he knows what it takes to defeat them again.
Jets -3 buy down to 2.5
Under 37 in a low scoring field goal game

Love this analysis

Will most likely be playing the Jets this week.

Killer Chihuahua · 09-23-09, 03:58 PM

Killer Plays

Let me start by saying this.....What will SanFrancisco have to do to get respect. How about go to the viking den and get a "W". This will be my GAME OF THE WEEK! I have been saying since the end of last season how this S.F. team has come together and started playing great defense. Now with a new offensive philosophy that pounds the ball, controlls the clock and limits turnovers, the defense does not have to work as hard on as many posessions to keep the other team from scoring!!! Brilliant!
The 49ers essentially employ the same game plan as the Vikings. They'll run as much as possible and ask their quarterback to convert short throws to move the sticks. Unfortunately, Frank Gore faces a tall task against the Williams Wall. Shaun Hill will be forced to do more in this game than what he has done in the first two weeks of the season, so the 49ers could be forced into a bunch of three-and-outs.
The difference in this game is one key player.....Yep you got it, Bret Favre. Favre will be asked to do something he has not been asked to do yet this season and that is go deep. To those of you who think that Favre can still get it done downfield, I'd argue that he didn't go downfield much late in the 2008 season, and that his shoulder and rib injuries cannot be ignored. You say that he has a a great completion percentage (77.1) right now, but I'll say that Favre has battled two horrendous defenses and hasn't been forced to do anything outside of making short throws. S.F. game plan will be to stop the run first and cover the short screens and crossing routes with very athletic linebackers. This will force favre to throw ducks downfield resulting in some INT. As long as the SF defense can some what contain Peterson, these are two evenly matched teams......same style on offense.....same style on defense, so getting seven points with one is a huge bargain.
The more significant question is how much I like the 49ers in this contest. The answer: a lot. The Vikings are 2-0 and in control of their division. They host the Packers next week, so what do they care about San Francisco? Sure, the 49ers are 2-0, but they're still seen as inferior in the eyes of the media. To me, this game means much more to San Francisco than it does to Minnesota. With 66% of the money on the road dog, the line is set at 7 although I see some 6.5

San Fran +7.5 hook buy
Sprinkle the ML +245
Under 40

yorksdicks · 09-23-09, 04:20 PM

Watch out for the bills this week!!!

kmarinouofm · 09-23-09, 04:32 PM

haven't been hanging around in this forum a lot.. but dexter is doing a great job running this thread every week and also getting the contest off the ground.. just wanted to thank you again for that..

on a more serious note.. i wish i could fax you a copy of my nfl line sheet that i keep with me during the week.. i think with the exception of 2 plays i am pretty much on most of the same games .. and for the same reasons.. i hope this a good thing for both of us brother.. i been swamped with work the last week and i think my picks last week suffered from it.. lets hope I am on the right side of these picks this week.. if not we are both screwed..

Killer Chihuahua · 09-23-09, 04:34 PM

Killer plays

How does a team control the ball for 45 minutes of a game, on Monday Night, on your home turf and still find a way to NOT win? The Dolphins had every chance to come away with a victory on MNF but layed a goose egg when it counted. Indi shredded the miami secondary on several long plays, 3 to be exact. The Dolphins had a ton of trouble with Indianapolis' quick-strike offense, so the bad news for them is that they now have to deal with Philip Rivers, Darren Sproles, Vincent Jackson and Antonio Gates. Even if LaDainian Tomlinson misses this game, I really don't think the Chargers will have much difficulty scoring. The Dolphins give up a YPA of 9.0, and if Tomlinson is out, Rivers is only going to throw more downfield to Jackson and Gates. The one concern for the Chargers is the right side of the offensive line. The Dolphins could have some luck getting to Rivers. Then again, the Ravens sacked Rivers just two times Sunday.
If Miami gets down early, they could be in for a long day. The wildcat offense is a great ball control scheme and Brown and Williams looked great, but can they put the ball in the air and make plays? I say no! Chad Penningtons arm is very accurate but lacks arm strength to get the ball down field to his speedy recievers as seen on the last drive against the Colts.
Quite simply, this is a great spot for SD. The Chargers are coming off a loss and they suffered a defeat to the Dolphins last year. They'll be out for revenge. Meanwhile, Miami put so much emotion into that Monday night contest, and despite a flawless game plan, came up short on the scoreboard. Now, the team has to go all the way out to the West Coast on a short week and battle a talented squad set on avenging a 2008 loss? Sounds like major trouble to me. With the Dolphins playing a great game on Monday night, and SD looking Pedestrian in the Raiders win and Ravens loss, The public is only 56% on the Chargers.
I will take SD BIG

Chargers -6

HoulihansTX · 09-23-09, 04:51 PM

Originally posted by yorksdicks

Watch out for the bills this week!!!

Thank you, I've been looking at them as my Home Under-Dog pick.

They get a New Orleans team that is traveling back to the east coast in consecutive weeks. Saints were in a close game until the second half of the eagles game, then the Turnovers started to mount up in the saints favor. Saints haven't beat anybody of note(Detroit/Eagles (-)McNabb), and the Bills are believing they have a chance in their division w/ a weakened Pats, a shit Miami team, and a beatable Jets sqaud. Bills have been scoring in bunches with the Screen game, and deep passing game rolling. Saints are playing on grass, which should nullify their pass rush. However Saints are absent of a notable strength on defense anyway.

This should be a shoot-out, and home team gets the nod.

Bills +6/ ML +230
Lean: Over 51

HoulihansTX · 09-23-09, 05:00 PM

Originally posted by Killer Chihuahua

Killer plays

How does a team control the ball for 45 minutes of a game, on Monday Night, on your home turf and still find a way to NOT win? The Dolphins had every chance to come away with a victory on MNF but layed a goose egg when it counted. Indi shredded the miami secondary on several long plays, 3 to be exact. The Dolphins had a ton of trouble with Indianapolis' quick-strike offense, so the bad news for them is that they now have to deal with Philip Rivers, Darren Sproles, Vincent Jackson and Antonio Gates. Even if LaDainian Tomlinson misses this game, I really don't think the Chargers will have much difficulty scoring. The Dolphins give up a YPA of 9.0, and if Tomlinson is out, Rivers is only going to throw more downfield to Jackson and Gates. The one concern for the Chargers is the right side of the offensive line. The Dolphins could have some luck getting to Rivers. Then again, the Ravens sacked Rivers just two times Sunday.
If Miami gets down early, they could be in for a long day. The wildcat offense is a great ball control scheme and Brown and Williams looked great, but can they put the ball in the air and make plays? I say no! Chad Penningtons arm is very accurate but lacks arm strength to get the ball down field to his speedy recievers as seen on the last drive against the Colts.
Quite simply, this is a great spot for SD. The Chargers are coming off a loss and they suffered a defeat to the Dolphins last year. They'll be out for revenge. Meanwhile, Miami put so much emotion into that Monday night contest, and despite a flawless game plan, came up short on the scoreboard. Now, the team has to go all the way out to the West Coast on a short week and battle a talented squad set on avenging a 2008 loss? Sounds like major trouble to me. With the Dolphins playing a great game on Monday night, and SD looking Pedestrian in the Raiders win and Ravens loss, The public is only 56% on the Chargers.
I will take SD BIG

Chargers -6

That game should fly OVER also. I was at the SD/Ravens game last weekend, and SD isn't proficient at any level of their defense. Jamal Williams(DT) out of the middle makes for a good day for the wildcat. SD will have to get off to an early lead in order to force Miami to play catch up, and pass with Pennington not run with Ronnie. I dont think that will happen, since Miami will be able to key in on the deep passing game of the Chargers with Tomlinson out and not giving them a threat of a running game.

Danskeren · 09-23-09, 05:12 PM

What do you guys think about taking 49'ers for the first half +3.5 ?
Vikes has been down at half their first two games, against bad teams, and the niners has been in front in both of their games against much stronger opponents. Looks like a strong play to me.

About that Saints play: I dont think the Bills will have problems scoring on saints, but i have to say, that the Saints are playing the best offense in the league by now. They will outscore the Bills - took the line early at Saints -4.

Killer Chihuahua · 09-23-09, 05:44 PM

Originally posted by HoulihansTX

Thank you, I've been looking at them as my Home Under-Dog pick.

They get a New Orleans team that is traveling back to the east coast in consecutive weeks. Saints were in a close game until the second half of the eagles game, then the Turnovers started to mount up in the saints favor. Saints haven't beat anybody of note(Detroit/Eagles (-)McNabb), and the Bills are believing they have a chance in their division w/ a weakened Pats, a shit Miami team, and a beatable Jets sqaud. Bills have been scoring in bunches with the Screen game, and deep passing game rolling. Saints are playing on grass, which should nullify their pass rush. However Saints are absent of a notable strength on defense anyway.

This should be a shoot-out, and home team gets the nod.

Bills +6/ ML +230
Lean: Over 51

Killer Plays

To contain New Orleans' scoring attack, the Bills are going to have to pressure Brees with their front four because blitzing him is futile. Unfortunately, that's not a realistic proposition because Buffalo has just three sacks on the year and will be going up against an elite offensive line. And yes, the front line is elite even without Jammal Brown because Jermon Bushrod is doing a great job filling in. Bushrod has given up just one sack in two contests.
So, if the Bills can't contain the Saints' offense, they're going to have to match them point for point. Again, that's not a realistic proposition. The Saints have given up just 2.9 YPC this year. That's not a fluke. Their defense is vastly underrated, so Trent Edwards will have to move the chains on his own.
Edwards should be able to put together some scoring drives with Jackson catching the ball out of the backfield. Edwards will also have to get the ball to Lee Evans and Terrell Owens more often; the two have combined for just nine catches this season. Buffalo's leading receiver (not named Jackson) is Derek Schouman, who just went on IR.
In all, N.O should kill the Bills. Yes playing on grass will slow the pass rush for the saints, but it will also slow it down for the bills.....who do you want want with more time to throw the ball? I think the grass factors in more of slowing down the NO receivers, although they will get open at will.
With all that said, I cant lay one dollar on this side. With 96% of the money on the Saints, this looks like Chicken Dinner for Vegas.
Instead I will lean on the Over. With NO scoring 45 and 48 the first two games, I think they are good for 35 in this contest leaving a mere 17 points for the Bills to score

Over 51

Dexter · 09-23-09, 06:26 PM

Originally posted by bombCanada

Are you sure a 1 hour time difference even matters? It can't possibly. Who cares how much they fly. The rule of thumb is that a body clock can adjust 1 time zone per day. Flying from West Coast to East Coast and playing football when you should be digesting dinner and reading your Dr Seuss book before lights out is one thing, but 1 hour?

when did i ever talk about a time zone difference with respect to the saints/bills game?

i just mentioned to taxman that maybe they wont be traveling back to no this week since their games go from philly to buffalo.

Dexter · 09-23-09, 06:28 PM

this thread looks good. lotta good posters are coming back into the scene.

rezkoness69 · 09-23-09, 06:46 PM

I like Tenn this week also. Not sure about the chargers though chuiaha. The chargers just don't look like a team with a lot of heart right now, while the dolphins are blood-thirsty for a W. The dolphins will employ a similar strategy as they did last week vs the colts, and the chargers D has just been terrible against the run.

taxman · 09-23-09, 06:50 PM

Dexter do you follow tracking teams before and after a bye?

I know Philly has been $$$$ after a bye with an 8-3 record ATS and have played 9 straight post bye UNDERS.

Philly has a bye next week.

Dexter · 09-23-09, 08:03 PM

Originally posted by taxman

Dexter do you follow tracking teams before and after a bye?

I know Philly has been $$$$ after a bye with an 8-3 record ATS and have played 9 straight post bye UNDERS.

Philly has a bye next week.

nah - though im sure looking up the history of coaches (not teams) after a bye would make a ton of sense. you would think great coaches like bill b, fisher etc would be great with extra prep.

GGPLAYER · 09-24-09, 09:23 AM

(3x) seahawks +2 - (A1 - autobet) fade any team who beats the steelers the next week at a minimum of 3x.

Does this hold up even if S. Wallace starts?

GGPLAYER · 09-24-09, 09:42 AM

Everyone seems to be down on Dallas and T. Romo after their home opener Sunday night. But I see way too much respect/credit being given to Carolina who might have to rely on J. Delhomme to win the game. I believe Dallas can hold the Panthers run game in check thus creating a similar situation week 1 where Philly's Def absolutely tee'd off on Jake creating several turn over’s. Couple in the factor that Dallas lost the Stadium Opener on National TV will only add fuel to the fire. Romo should also have a few TD passes in this one. Line is coming down and the public is heaving on Car. I'll take Dallas in this spot on Monday night -8.5.

daneblazer · 09-24-09, 02:45 PM

Originally posted by GGPLAYER

(3x) seahawks +2 - (A1 - autobet) fade any team who beats the steelers the next week at a minimum of 3x.

Does this hold up even if S. Wallace starts?

Seneca Wallace has actually played better than Hasslebeck over the last year.

daneblazer · 09-24-09, 03:00 PM

The one thing the Buccaneers can do well is run the ball. Unfortunately, you can't run the ball if you're down 17-0 out of the gate. And here's some more bad news for the Bucs: Justin Tuck said he will play in this contest. If Tuck is in the game, Tampa won't be able to run the ball. Instead, Byron Leftwich and his slow throwing motion will have to beat the Giants.

Not sure about that all that. Tuck is probably out and the Bucs have passed better than they have ran. Without one of their best Dlinemen, the Giants should give Leftwich a little more time to throw the ball...and Leftwich has done better than you'd think the last few games.

This is not the same Giants team we have seen over the last few years. The Giants are one of the best PASSING teams in the league. I believe there is going to be a lot of points scored in this one...I am likely on the over. The only thing that scares me about giving the points is that the Giants are on the road and due for a letdown.

Pick'nParlays · 09-24-09, 04:35 PM

Dexter, I think your doing a great job. With CK gone I'm glad we got threads like this that are insightful. Good work peeps.

Killer Chihuahua · 09-24-09, 04:56 PM

Originally posted by daneblazer

Not sure about that all that. Tuck is probably out and the Bucs have passed better than they have ran. Without one of their best Dlinemen, the Giants should give Leftwich a little more time to throw the ball...and Leftwich has done better than you'd think the last few games.

This is not the same Giants team we have seen over the last few years. This is one of the best PASSING teams in the league. I believe there is going to be a lot of points scored in this one...I am likely on the over. The only thing that scares me about the line is that the Giants are on the road and due for a letdown.

One of the BEST passing teams in the league? I have to disagree with you on that point! Byron Leftwich was 25-41 against the cowboys. The Bucs rushed in that game for 174 yards. Dallas had to sell out on the run giving Leftwich the short pass. Thus only one screen pass completed since so many cowboys were in the box. The following week vs Buffalo, they got down 17 points in the first quarter. They had to abandon the run and go to the pass which gained them 296 yards on 26-50 attempts by leftwich with 2 int and 3 td. A closer look will show that 9 of the 26 completions were screens out of the backfield for 64 yards an 1 td.

A closer look at Leftwich shows he has 51 completions(3rd) of 91 att (2nd) for 572 yards (7th) with 4 td(4th) & 2 int. His passer rating is 80.5 which is only good for 20th among starting qb. But these numbers are out of necessity and not by design. the Bucs are a run first team.....or they would like to be. With or without Tuck, Ny will stop the run and force TB to do the same thing that Dallas did which is make leftwich beat them with short passes. No way they are sucessfull.

So, IS Tampa one of the Best Passing teams in the NFL?

Anyone have thoughts on this?

daneblazer · 09-24-09, 04:58 PM

maybe I should have worded that better...I meant the Giants are one of the best passing teams in the league, not the Bucs

Killer Chihuahua · 09-24-09, 05:11 PM

Well maybe I should have read it a little closer too....LOL Yes, I would agree that the Giants do have a more balanced attack than in recent years.

Dexter · 09-24-09, 06:10 PM

Originally posted by GGPLAYER

(3x) seahawks +2 - (A1 - autobet) fade any team who beats the steelers the next week at a minimum of 3x.

Does this hold up even if S. Wallace starts?

sure, why not

leave it at the min though.

zackattack · 09-24-09, 07:47 PM

Originally posted by Pick'nParlays

Dexter, I think your doing a great job. With CK gone I'm glad we got threads like this that are insightful. Good work peeps.

Hey guys i"ve been away awhile.........what happened to CK? does anybody know if he is posting elsewhere? thanks.

textbook winner · 09-25-09, 12:10 AM

i didn't read any replies but i think you're underrating ny

GGPLAYER · 09-25-09, 10:15 AM

Originally posted by zackattack

Hey guys i"ve been away awhile.........what happened to CK? does anybody know if he is posting elsewhere? thanks.

He turned Tout.

GGPLAYER · 09-25-09, 10:15 AM

Originally posted by Dexter

sure, why not

leave it at the min though.

Just checking.......I"m on it.

Dexter · 09-25-09, 11:20 PM

Originally posted by textbook winner

i didn't read any replies but i think you're underrating ny

the giants? they're a great team, and will likely have 11-13 wins this year. who cares that they have inexperienced wideouts - they have a great offensive and defensive line. and thats where football games are won - in the trenches. ever notice how some running backs come out of nowhere to look like studs?......its b/c their o-lines are good.

if i were in charge of an nfl draft, i would take offensive and defensive lineman early. later in the draft i'll take skill position players.

i'm just fading the giants based on an in season autobet ive added. #5...

(A5) fade any team who just won a nationally televised game for a min of 1x

Dexter · 09-27-09, 10:56 AM

crush it today fellas

titans getting played...(down to 1)

repski · 09-27-09, 11:00 AM

nice write up guys....Dex and KC....Im on the same ones you guys are....I also have the Pats

Good Luck!!

2Leesan · 09-27-09, 11:17 AM

Texans
Vikings
Chiefs
Packers

Dexter · 09-27-09, 11:47 AM

welker is out again today for the pats, but i do like them to win by 10+. i just have waaaay too many plays.

Dexter · 09-27-09, 12:11 PM

damn - the jets look legit.

Dexter · 09-27-09, 12:25 PM

for those interested - i heard that there was a PC Play on the titans today.