NFL Underground Plays - Week 3

taxman · 09-21-09, 10:33 PM

Like your fade on the G-men,49ers and the Seahawks.

How about Saints playing Philly week 2 traveling East for the w and then having to fly back the following week to NY to face Buf.Tough with the time change but good for the frequent flier miles.

Any feel on the home dogs here?

Dexter · 09-21-09, 10:37 PM

Originally posted by taxman

Like your fade on the G-men,49ers and the Seahawks.

How about Saints playing Philly week 2 traveling East for the w and then having to fly back the following week to NY to face Buf.Tough with the time change but good for the frequent flier miles.

Any feel on the home dogs here?

you sure the saints just dont stay on the east coast?

Dexter · 09-21-09, 10:38 PM

and once the cards/colts line comes out, i will make a play on the cards and the over.

taxman · 09-21-09, 11:33 PM

Good question..not sure if they stay out on the East coast of fly home...Like Arizona on the fade on Indy plus they have a short week and haveto fly out west for another prime time game under the lights in the desert.Points look like the order here

nybigapple · 09-22-09, 01:32 AM

Originally posted by Dexter

(3x) seahawks +2 - (A1 - autobet) fade any team who beats the steelers the next week at a minimum of 3x.

Can someone explain this one? Is there some trend I don't know about with the steelers?

million2one · 09-22-09, 04:16 PM

Good stuff, I'm liking all your sides.
Except I am gonna roll with the Jags plus the points.
I don't do total's all that often.

Im leaning Arizona as well and would love your input? Thanks

I am so happy to see we have alot of the same games picked out.

million2one · 09-22-09, 04:17 PM

Nevermind I just saw your post about the Cards.
I feel much more confident now, you the man Dex.

Dexter · 09-22-09, 06:09 PM

Originally posted by nybigapple

Can someone explain this one? Is there some trend I don't know about with the steelers?

just an angle of fading a team who beat the world champs. we made a killing in the nba doing that when someone beat the celtics last year. will do the same when someone beats the lakers this year.

Dexter · 09-22-09, 06:11 PM

(2x) cards -2 - will fade the national tv winner from monday night.

(2x) over cards 47

Dexter · 09-22-09, 06:31 PM

YTD: +21 units

Record: 15-6 (71%)

Mr Winters · 09-22-09, 07:08 PM

Just did my early recon for week 3 and then checked this thread, luvin' all these picks. Rock on.

EDIT:

A couple dogs I'm likin:

DET +6.5 at home v. WASH
MIA +6 at SD

-

jagmaster · 09-22-09, 07:28 PM

Think your crazy on the seahawks bet bears defense against hasselback not at 100% or even better backup seneca wallace at 100% either way seahawks wont score more than 14. Bears easy win 27-10.

twentyonekid · 09-22-09, 07:36 PM

3x) titans +3 - i think the jets have a big time letdown off the new england win, playing a good/hungry titans team who lost 2 close games to start the season. must win for tenn.

3x) 49ers +7 - i will continue to play the 49ers and the under until circumstances suggest otherwise. doesnt hurt that the attention whore favre may be peaking ahead to a week 4 matchup vs the packers.

like these two plays a lot,TENN cannot afford to go down 0-3 or else they might just be finished early

49ers have been playing some inspired ball under singletary and the vikings have not shown too much of being an elite team as they were thought of this year,the points look good here

good luck

Dexter · 09-22-09, 08:41 PM

Originally posted by jagmaster

Think your crazy on the seahawks bet bears defense against hasselback not at 100% or even better backup seneca wallace at 100% either way seahawks wont score more than 14. Bears easy win 27-10.

you talk about the bears defense as if they're some shut down group. this defense gave up 22ppg last year (avg) and 18ppg this year (good, not scary) - but they have no more urlacher.

i think the name "chicago bears" is making you think, shut down/stout defense, when this group is not really that.

Dexter · 09-22-09, 08:44 PM

Originally posted by twentyonekid

3x) titans +3 - i think the jets have a big time letdown off the new england win, playing a good/hungry titans team who lost 2 close games to start the season. must win for tenn.

3x) 49ers +7 - i will continue to play the 49ers and the under until circumstances suggest otherwise. doesnt hurt that the attention whore favre may be peaking ahead to a week 4 matchup vs the packers.

like these two plays a lot,TENN cannot afford to go down 0-3 or else they might just be finished early

49ers have been playing some inspired ball under singletary and the packers have not shown too much of being an elite team as they were thought of this year,the points look good here

good luck

the niners are playing the vikings....you're getting confused thinking favre/green bay..lol

MarkHammond · 09-22-09, 09:09 PM

arvzprince · 09-22-09, 09:13 PM

Titans and steelers..

twentyonekid · 09-22-09, 09:16 PM

Originally posted by Dexter

the niners are playing the vikings....you're getting confused thinking favre/green bay..lol

thanks dexter,i meant to say vikings.......

i still like your play

Dexter · 09-22-09, 09:18 PM

Originally posted by MarkHammond

favre plays for the vikings

where have u been?

i cant blame anyone who doesnt pay attention to that attention whore. hes a joke.

jagmaster · 09-22-09, 09:20 PM

This is 2009 dex not 2008 the bears gave up 14 points to the defending super bowl champs and 21 to the packers which the offense gave the pack the ball on the 1 yard line and 4 gave them 4 interceptions and still only gave up 21. Think u are just looking at the finals of these games and not actually watching the games, because i have watched all 8 quarters of the bears and the are good even without urlacher. I dont want to get in a pissing match with you u just trying to save u a little cash.

shoebox · 09-22-09, 09:23 PM

Originally posted by Dexter

YTD: +21 units

Record: 15-6 (71%)

outstanding dex

azn624 · 09-22-09, 09:33 PM

i'm very high on the 49ers as well and if they don't win this weekend they'll at least cover with the 7 points

Dexter · 09-22-09, 09:58 PM

Originally posted by jagmaster

This is 2009 dex not 2008 the bears gave up 14 points to the defending super bowl champs and 21 to the packers which the offense gave the pack the ball on the 1 yard line and 4 gave them 4 interceptions and still only gave up 21. Think u are just looking at the finals of these games and not actually watching the games, because i have watched all 8 quarters of the bears and the are good even without urlacher. I dont want to get in a pissing match with you u just trying to save u a little cash.

you've watched all 8 qtrs....why? are you a bears fan?

it is possible for people to disagree without it turning into a pissing match.

save me cash? i assume then with that much confidence that you'll be liquidating all of your assets, borrowing from all family members, stealing from your kids piggy bank to pound the bears?

ps: i dont read boxscore finals - i have the nfl ticket and watch all games.

AdaBarber · 09-22-09, 10:31 PM

What up, Dex? Long time homie! I heard what happened. Not gonna even discuss that. U r good enough to stand on your own. I have been raising my little boy(8 months), and fighting the recession. Had to go and handle business that I know I excelled in. But I am back. Trying to go with the flow of my own. I like your picks. Not all but who is supposed to?

I like the Jets. Sanchez is feeling himself like the next Broadway Joe. Just call him Turnpike Sanchez. And a Rex Ryan defense that just shut down a Brady led NE? I am thinking the Jets' D is also feeling themselves going against another top notch D. And their coach was responsible for the vaunted Ravens D. I think confidence wins this one.

With you on the under.

With u on the Texans.

Giants are clearly a better team. And the run defense will shut down all that talk about Tampa's run game. Leftwich has never been mobile; and after a one tackle performance from Osi last week, I foresee Byron getting hurt. Also, it is a pissing match against the "Brothers Manning". Eli knows Peyton is always watching. I think Eli matches older brother against a lesser foe and better receivers overall. No let down.

With u on the Niners.

With u on the Vike's under.

Hawks are beat up. Seneca is not even 100%. Can't touch it but leaning the fade on the Hawks.

Until someone stops Brees and Colston I am betting them. Brees hasn't even utilized all his weapons. And he even found Shockey in the lost and found. I am with you on this one. They might score the cover themselves in this one. LOL!

200% with you on the Steelers.

With you on the Dallas over. Not for the same reasons but I like your reasoning. Romo has no next level. He has already peaked if you wanna call it that. He is done. Hmmm? Wonder why he was D=II and never drafted? Watch some more Dallas games and you will know. So Carolina will get to score off his sloppiness. Felix Jones will eat up large chunks to give that clown, Nono, almost fail proof scores. Carolina will score because S. Smith is due and Delhomme is auditioning for his job. Score this way. Score that way. I throw it to you. We throw it to y'all. Over.

Hey Dex, just my opinions. I wish you the best of luck this week.

I only played Giants-7.5 and Saints-5.5. 5 units apiece. I only play what I really feel without hesitation. NFL stands for NO FUNDS LEAVING. Lol.

Have a good week fellas. And may the skies rain w's!

Dexter · 09-22-09, 10:35 PM

welcome back ada barber - this is a group thread, so please post in it as much as you'd like (and that goes for anyone else - get in here, post your plays and write ups if you'd like)

AdaBarber · 09-22-09, 10:41 PM

Originally posted by Dexter

welcome back ada barber - this is a group thread, so please post in it as much as you'd like (and that goes for anyone else - get in here, post your plays and write ups if you'd like)

Thanks Dex! Let's get the skies raining w's!

Reeses69 · 09-22-09, 11:05 PM

Hey all, My picks coincide with most of yours except for the addition of Denver +2 at Raiders... I also believe that the Seahawks will be hurting this week as the only offense Seneca Wallace had was when he was already within the 5 yrd line. I like the bears in this matchup.

taxman · 09-23-09, 12:07 AM

Just put in a couple of my plays

Pitt -4

Ariz -2 1/2

Ariz/Indy OVER 47

Seat +2

TB +7

Giants are a bit banged up and are playing there second of three straight road games...brutual...might be taking TB a little lightly after primetime W in Dallas...

bombCanada · 09-23-09, 08:28 AM

Originally posted by Dexter

you sure the saints just dont stay on the east coast?

Are you sure a 1 hour time difference even matters? It can't possibly. Who cares how much they fly. The rule of thumb is that a body clock can adjust 1 time zone per day. Flying from West Coast to East Coast and playing football when you should be digesting dinner and reading your Dr Seuss book before lights out is one thing, but 1 hour?

nybigapple · 09-23-09, 10:44 AM

Originally posted by Dexter

just an angle of fading a team who beat the world champs. we made a killing in the nba doing that when someone beat the celtics last year. will do the same when someone beats the lakers this year.

Thanks for the insight. This might have worked well for you historically, but I can't support the idea of unbiasedly autofading. I can see you've already had a few people debate with you about the bears, but I'll simply say I'm with them. Unless Hasselbeck plays, and plays really well seattle has no shot.

Killer Chihuahua · 09-23-09, 02:20 PM

Killer Plays

Tennessee's defense has been ok at best this year. They played well in the first three quarters of the Steelers game, but it was very apparent that without Albert Haynesworth, they couldn't get to Ben Roethlisberger. Once Ben figured out that the secondary was weak, he mounted two sustained 4th quarter drives, and one in ot to win the game. Living in Houston, I watched the Titan/Texan game Sunday and they once again struggled to put any pressure on Matt Schaub, allowing the Texans quarterback to torch their secondary. While the Titans seem to match up well against New York's offense because they're still great at containing the run, I wouldn't count on them rattling Sanchez or stopping the Jets offense from putting up points on the board. With the Tenn linebackers trying to contain Jones up the gut and Washington on screens, the trio of Cotchery, Stuckey and Keller will be able to make plays down field.

The Titans offense did scored 31 last week, but didn't play particularly well. They scored on three huge plays from Chris Johnson because Houston's defense is completely inept... (one was a blown coverage that even my grandpa could have scored on). Otherwise, Tennessee wasn't exactly proficient in sustaining drives. They lost the time-of-possession battle by nine minutes.
Chris Johnson will not rush for 197 yards against the Jets. Kris Jenkins will make sure that doesn't happen. With the running game held to minimal gains, Kerry Collins will have to move the chains on his own in long-yardage situations. Given that the Jets bring tons of pressure and that Justin Gage will be a non-factor because of Darrelle Revis, I can't see the Titans putting up too many points in this contest.
The Titans are 0-2 and desperate for a win and their is public perception that the Jets will have a big letdown week after the upset of NE (Dexter). I think that's why the public isn't pounding the Jets. What the Tennessee backers don't realize is that this is also an important game for New York. The Titans are 0-2, but they are still considered among the elite teams in the NFL, so the Jets aren't going to just roll over. In fact, that's why this line isn't higher; Vegas is catering to public perception that this Tennessee squad is just as good as last year's.

It's not. Haynesworth is gone. The Titans no longer have a great defense. And Rex Ryan beat this squad back in January when he was with the Ravens, so he knows what it takes to defeat them again.
Jets -3 buy down to 2.5
Under 37 in a low scoring field goal game

Danskeren · 09-23-09, 02:31 PM

Like your card this week.
Haven't looked at the texans and bucs yet - but i played all the other sides.
Think 49'ers are play of the week.

Good luck

Killer Chihuahua · 09-23-09, 02:44 PM

Killer Plays

The Texans Defense is Horrible right now!!!
Of course, who needs a defense when you can put up 34 points against the likes of the Titans? Matt Schaub was on fire last week and should be able to continue his aerial raid on Jacksonville's porous secondary. The Texans haven't been able to get Steve Slaton going thus far, but that'll obviously change here. Ever since the Jaguars dealt Marcus Stroud, they haven't been able to stop the run. They've been unsuccessful versus two mediocre ground attacks thus far (Indianapolis, Arizona), so I don't see anything that makes me believe they'll have more luck against Slaton.
The Texans are currently giving up 6.8 yards per carry. That does not bode well against the Jaguars.
Jacksonville utilizes Maurice Jones-Drew a lot like Jeff Fisher does with Johnson (save for goal-line situations). Jones-Drew will run the ball a ton, but he'll also be split out wide on occasion. The Texans couldn't contain Johnson, so I don't see why they'll have any more luck with Jones-Drew. With Jones-Drew gaining 5-6 yards per carry, David Garrard should have plenty of time in the pocket to attack Houston's 22nd-ranked secondary. The Texans have a whopping one sack on the year, so Garrard should have a clean pocket on most of his attempts.
The Jaguars are the one team the Texans have completly owned at Reliant Stadium. Last year on Monday night, the Texans embarrased the Jaggs by handing them a 13 point def. The Texans are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 games and have won 4 of the last 6 meetings. I think this game is a fieldgoal game at best. The Texans are in a huge let down spot with a win in Tenn last week and in very unfamilar territory being favored( see the jets game). With 94 percent of the public on the Texans, Im going to wait till game time and watch this line. Any RLM and Im all aboard the Jaguar express. If not I will buy this game to -3 and Play the Texans.

Danskeren · 09-23-09, 02:54 PM

Originally posted by Killer Chihuahua

Killer Plays

The Texans Defense is Horrible right now!!!
Of course, who needs a defense when you can put up 34 points against the likes of the Titans? Matt Schaub was on fire last week and should be able to continue his aerial raid on Jacksonville's porous secondary. The Texans haven't been able to get Steve Slaton going thus far, but that'll obviously change here. Ever since the Jaguars dealt Marcus Stroud, they haven't been able to stop the run. They've been unsuccessful versus two mediocre ground attacks thus far (Indianapolis, Arizona), so I don't see anything that makes me believe they'll have more luck against Slaton.
The Texans are currently giving up 6.8 yards per carry. That does not bode well against the Jaguars.
Jacksonville utilizes Maurice Jones-Drew a lot like Jeff Fisher does with Johnson (save for goal-line situations). Jones-Drew will run the ball a ton, but he'll also be split out wide on occasion. The Texans couldn't contain Johnson, so I don't see why they'll have any more luck with Jones-Drew. With Jones-Drew gaining 5-6 yards per carry, David Garrard should have plenty of time in the pocket to attack Houston's 22nd-ranked secondary. The Texans have a whopping one sack on the year, so Garrard should have a clean pocket on most of his attempts.
The Jaguars are the one team the Texans have completly owned at Reliant Stadium. Last year on Monday night, the Texans embarrased the Jaggs by handing them a 13 point def. The Texans are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 games and have won 4 of the last 6 meetings. I think this game is a fieldgoal game at best. The Texans are in a huge let down spot with a win in Tenn last week and in very unfamilar territory being favored( see the jets game). With 94 percent of the public on the Texans, Im going to wait till game time and watch this line. Any RLM and Im all aboard the Jaguar express. If not I will buy this game to -3 and Play the Texans.

Great wrireup.
We allready have seen a bit RLM. The line started at Jag +4 and is down to +3.5 now.