I’m back. I’m not ready to walk away from football. Will post Bowls too. Has this season been awful? Yes no doubt about that. I’m back because I know I can win and I have a track record that backs that up. You all know I’m one of the few that will keep transparent w/L record regardless of outcomes. I have to reset and get back to less is more approach. Remember that even the best in the business long term will only hit 55% or so...gambling for profit is really hard. Every gambler knows there’s glorious winning streaks and horrible losing streaks throughout season. I def got caught up earlier this year and you saw me tailspin out of control. I give myself credit for stepping away. I’ve accepted where I’m at this season. I know you can expect quality plays moving forward and I’ll do my best to contribute to the forum here down the stretch. All the best-Lucky
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Best of luck the rest of the year
Its so hard once you fall behind. 4-5 bad weeks can ruin your whole season. It happens to the best of usComment -
Thanks Renegades. I’ll finish strong. Back tmrwComment -
Bucs & Lions UNDER 47 (-120)
Texans+3
Panthers+6.5
Giants-3.5
Dolphins & Giants UNDER 46 (-120)
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Welcome back Lucky. GL today.Comment -
Cowboys Pk
Chargers+1
Jaguars & Raiders UNDER 47 (-120)
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5-3 +1.5
Updated Regular Season
66-59 53% -11.2 Units
sides 51-39
totals 15-20
Top Rated(2U) 16-22
GOY (3U) 0-2Comment -
Colts+9Comment -
Way too much love for over. Total opened at 44/45. Here’s the thing, I like Indy to be able to run clock and play keep away from Drew & Co. essentially limiting possessions. Indy should be able to do that especially because Saints D suffered key injuries on there D Line last wk and Indy is one of NFLs best rushing offenses and own a very good Oline. Primetime Unders have been money all year 28-17 62%...in primetime, high profile games when you have consensus of 80-90% of bets on a total, going against the grain has been profitable over my years betting football. I don’t have exact #s to back it up but This is the most lopsided total of the primetime season and I’m seeing 80+% backing over tonight. The contrarian in me says jump on it, hold your nose and cash it. If I’m wrong, my handicapping doesn’t change as I’d make the same bet next week if situation presented itself ...FYI..Lang on OVER...That’s good enough for me, Hammering Under. Good luck if you follow
**top rated**Colts & Saints UNDER 49 (-120)Comment -
Colts was bad bad call. Under worked out 1-1 +0.9
Updated Regular Season
67-60 53% -10.3 Units
sides 51-40
totals 16-20
Top Rated(2U) 17-22
GOY (3U) 0-2Comment -
6-4 +2.4 last week and I really like the looks of wk 16. It’s critical that I win again this week and get the break even # within reach of wk 17. Would LOVE to be back at or around even on the season going into playoffs. Still hopeful that I’ll win $ overall this year despite having to step away for a month...Comment -
**Top Rated**Buccaneers+3
Bills & Patriots UNDER 38 (-120)
49ers-6.5
Rams & 49ers UNDER 45 (-120)Comment -
Won hoops, won bowls, but 0-3-1 in here -3.5
will try to do better today. Back shortlyComment -
Titans+3
**top rated**Jets+4
Cincy-1
Carolina & Indy UNDER 47
Ravens & Browns UNDER 49.5Comment -
3 unit***Game of Year***Browns+10
Ravens winners of 10 straight. Last loss was to these Browns! Line is inflated because of the reputation of these two teams. Ravens have looked simply dominate...late in NFL season big home dogs against top tier opponents have been $$$$ ATS. Add to that Ravens off of 2TD+ win are just 3-16 ATS following week. Brownies play final home game of season. The team has talent, I worry a little about the penalties and dumb mistakes similar to what we saw yesterday out of Jameis Winston and Co...that said, 10 points is too much in this divisional game. Browns keep it close and may win outright. Best of luck weather you fade or follow. I’m all inComment -
I with you Lucky. Had the same kind of day you did yesterday. But changed my pick on Baltimore to heavy on Cleveland. Let’s get this and start Christmas week off right!!!Comment -
Cleveland will get hammered now. The team is just too dumb to do anything that makes sense. They just gave baltimore 7 by not running the clock out. 108 to go baltimore no timeouts. If cleveland ran the ball, baltimore would have got it back with 20 secs to go. Nope they throw it incomplete. Balt goes down the field in 1 minute and gets a td. 14-6 instead of 7-6Comment -
Arizona+9
**top rated**Philly+3
cowboys & Philly UNDER 46.5Comment -
Big drive here. Need a big play Brownies. Tough game to watch. Missed extra point? C’mon Hope this one backdoors late for usComment -
Nope they went for 2. Kitchens as dumb as it getsComment -
SNF
**top rated**Bears+7Comment -
packers & vikings UNDER 48 (-120)
**top rated**Vikings-4.5
I feel like I owe an explanation after backing bears last night. Its a strong play for me, I know my top plays have been losing this year. Sucks. But tonight I'm loving Vikings and under. Vikes lost 21-16 in GB earlier. They committed a season high 4 turnovers. That wont happen again tonight. Revenge minded, and 1 GM behind in the division is a profitable angle. Also Minnesota at home:
34-12 SU under Mike Zimmer
31-13-2 ATS
Minnesota in divisional home games:
10-5 SU Last 15 games
9-5-1 ATS
GB in recent divisonal rd gms 3-7 L10
Hard to bet against Rodgers but this has contrarian angles I love to back. Similar to what I saw in Browns play yesterday. That one started so good. Was a really tough loss for me. Was covering with 3 minutes to go....best of luck w your action. Vikings tonight is my christmas gift to the forum. Merry Christmas everyoneComment -
Contrarian plays have been 50/50 at best all year. Its been a strange year. The dogs have cashed at an incredible rate this year but not the ones most needed by books.Comment -
Bills in playoffs Lucky. Welcome your opinion.Comment -
He surrendered. It wasnt meant to be this year. Chalk it up and move on. If Lucky was betting the money he claimed, he lost thousands. He made the right decision to walk away. I wish I did 6k ago...Comment
