Lucky1’s 2019 NFL Campaign

[Lucky1g]

5 out of 6 winning NFL seasons, all posted here at SBR

2018
85-74 53% +9.0 units

2017
80-63 56% +17.7 units

2016
84-87 49% -11.3 units

2015
75-61 55% +13.6 units

2014
92-67 58% +18.3 units

2013
36-27 58% +6.3 units

[Lucky1g]

TOP RATED (ALL) FOOTBALL PLAYS IN 2018 went combined 37-18 67.3%

my grading scale has always been regular plays 1 unit. TOP RATED 2 unit. GOY 3 unit.

not sure I’ll get into much preseason betting this year..but when my action starts I will post.

Feels good to have football season upon us again...will try have best year yet!

[Ballerholic]

Hey well done over last few seasons! Just curious if you have any trends that you find to be very successful during the year? I like to fade a team who is sandwiched between divisional games...

[Lucky1g]

Panthers & Bears OVER 35

[chabooky386]

Glad to see you're still wheelin and dealin bro!

[Lucky1g]

Had to sweat that one out, but that’s life. Good to get that one in the win column. See ya next time

XNFL 1-0 +1

[Lucky1g]

Wk 2 early wager for 8/16

Bills+3


Eyeing 2 other matchups just not ready to get down either way...yet. Feeling strong about Bills this week. The teams are practicing together and reports im seeing and reading coming out of Bills camp are very positive. If you like futures I would take Bills OVER the posted win total this year. Beane/McDermott are really building something special regardless of the outcome of preseason games...they’ve got a guy in Josh Allen who is a flat out stud and totally embraced by Buffalo fans. Remember the Bills were awful last year talent wise. Not a lot to work with for the rookie QB. This year the sophomore qb has grown into leadership role, the roster has been upgraded in a low profile way with high character guys. On other side of ball QB of the defense is sophomore MLB that will be a household name for many years to come. Kids 20yrs old and primed to lead the defense. Bills last year with Allen under center were extremely competitive, going into Minnesota as 18 point dogs and putting beatdown on Vikings...don’t underestimate this bunch. I’ll be watching them closely and hopefully picking good spots to bet them this year. Best of Luck~

[Lucky1g]

Another play wk 2 preseason

Packers+4

[Lucky1g]

Packers lose.

NFLX 1-1 50% -0.1 units

Pending Bills+3

adding Bills & Panthers OVER 40

[Lucky1g]

Interesting line moves. Bills at pick or +1 now, feel good about that. But total moved down. Dot like that. Still like over in this one. Watched highlights from most recent practices, and coach mcdermott basically says its pedal to the medal with the offense tonight. I think rookie 3rd rounder RB Devin Singletary could have a bust out sort of night. This kid might end up being a huge sleeper especially if McCoy goes down this season. He could be there primary back. Good luck tonight. I'll be watching Bills game

[leetreaper]

Interesting line moves. Bills at pick or +1 now, feel good about that. But total moved down. Dot like that. Still like over in this one. Watched highlights from most recent practices, and coach mcdermott basically says its pedal to the medal with the offense tonight. I think rookie 3rd rounder RB Devin Singletary could have a bust out sort of night. This kid might end up being a huge sleeper especially if McCoy goes down this season. He could be there primary back. Good luck tonight. I'll be watching Bills game

Love ur insight bro.

BUT, Ive watched Bills games LIVE many times, have you? Line moves dont mean shit esp in preseason lol. Team sucks but we all love them for some reason, cheers.

[Lucky1g]

I love my insight too. Cheers. Tonight 2-0

Preseason NFL 3-1 75% +1.9 units

[Lucky1g]

I tracked preseason line moves of 2 or more points for 5 preseasons back from 2011-2016. The results? 34 “big moves” that went 22-12 65%

If nothing else it does show that smart money can and often does beat preseason football. It also reflects that Vegas and the offshores protect themselves by moving the line. Remember it is still not how much was bet, but who bet it. Preseason because it is not heavily followed by gamblers still is a sport sportsbooks have to offer to the public, but are never comfortable in doing. They especially try never to hold "large" bets on openers if they anticipate a strong flowing or flow on that game.

The key is getting a jump on the line before it loses value. Chasing line moves is nothing more then a 50/50 proposition in my study of the subject. Bills +3 yesterday was jumped by smart money and moved down to PK/+1 at kickoff. Bills covered wire to wire. The total went from 40 to 39...and the game went over the total, barely.

Dont try telling me line moves mean nothing, it’s all in how you interpret the information and whether your able to isolate value. Preseason can be beat. That said, hell no, my wagers are not based solely on line moves. I’m an experienced capper and have learned much over the years. Will do my best to post another winning season here at SBR. GOODLUCK ALL

[Renegades]

Moreover, line moves on and off key numbers or thru key numbers is even more significant.

Good luck this year

[Lucky1g]

Absolutely great point. To clarify the 22-12 record on big 2+pt moves if you bet the opening line. If you bet the closing line on those same games the results went 17-17. Think about that. Once these big moves happen be careful, the play at the adjusted line has mathematically lost a lot of value and it’s probability of cashing goes from 60-70% to no better then a coin flip.

Tonight i I had strong lean on browns under, talked myself out of the play and passed. It would’ve cashed...oh well, right now I may have a regular play on MNF, too early to pull trigger. Be back if I play. Looking forward to week 3. I think I’ll def have a few plays wk 3 and then shut it down wk 4 and wait for regular season.

[Lucky1g]

Play tonight. Best of luck


Seahawks+3

[Lucky1g]

Seahawks lose.

Preseason NFL now 3-2 60% +0.8 units

[Lucky1g]

A play tonight.


Packers-2

[Lucky1g]

additions

Eagles+5

Bengals-3

[Lucky1g]

Holy smokes. Didn’t see an o for 3 night coming. Just couldn’t catch a break last night. That hurts

preseason nfl now 3-5 38% -2.5 units

[Lucky1g]

Bounce back tonight.



**top rated**Bills-2

[Renegades]

Didnt the phily game get scratched? They only played 3 quarters. If you play with a local, you better challenge him on that

[tailin junkie]

Same with Green Bay, I had them on fanduel in pa, as well as the under, these were placed long before they said the game was being played on an 80 yard field, both bets were cancelled without me saying anything

[Lucky1g]

Right on guys. For me officially the eagles game went unfinished and grades a push. Packers game I have to take the loss because full game was played.

preseason nfl now 3-4 43% -1.4 units

big play tonight on Bills will be my only top rated play of preseason. I’ve been following this team close, Love the play tonight. I don’t think lions will be able to hang. Really would be shocked to lose this bet. Go Bills

[2daBank]

Holy smokes. Didn’t see an o for 3 night coming. Just couldn’t catch a break last night. That hurts

preseason nfl now 3-5 38% -2.5 units

You caught a break, you shoulda got refunded on the eagles play. I know they took my ravens win away so they damn sure better give ya yours back!! Lol. Gl this season

[Lucky1g]

Thanks bank. All the best to you as well. Stop in this season, always like hearing when we line up on plays.

Sloppy, but Bills win and cash.

NFLX now 4-4 50% +0.6 units
sides 2-4
totals 2-0
top rated (2unit) 1-0

[Lucky1g]

2 today

Cardinals+6

Cowboys PK

[Lucky1g]

Split

NFLX now 5-5 50% +0.5 units
sides 3-5
totals 2-0
top rated (2unit) 1-0

[Lucky1g]

Steelers & Titans UNDER 40

[Lucky1g]

Nailed it

NFLX now 6-5 54% +1.5 units
sides 3-5
totals 3-0
top rated (2unit) 1-0

[Lucky1g]

Redskins+6

[Lucky1g]

Looking over wk 4 again tonight. Sure I have some leans, but my attitude about tmrw is let’s save it for the real thing. I think Redskins play cashes to close out solid preseason. If it loses, I still on the + side going into regular season. Excited for real football

[ghetto1]

Looking over wk 4 again tonight. Sure I have some leans, but my attitude about tmrw is let’s save it for the real thing. I think Redskins play cashes to close out solid preseason. If it loses, I still on the + side going into regular season. Excited for real football

Looking goooood! Bout to start following u

[Lucky1g]

Preseason blah blah blah. Didn’t go my way but at least I hit my big play to come out ahead albeit very small profits. Let the real games begin!

NFLX now 6-6 50% +0.4 units
sides 3-6
totals 3-0
top rated (2unit) 1-0

[Lucky1g]

Finalizing card. Plays posted soon