NFL week 12 (nov24-28)

phil_abuster · 11-28-16, 02:14 AM

Originally Posted by phil_abuster

turkey day bets:
lions -1.5 __even matchup except vikings missing star wr Diggs and badly limping secondary
mn/det und 42.5 __dont see a high scoring affair here. only 38 in ot last game

added turkey day bets
redskins 1stQ +.5+100 __1st Q can easily go either way or tie, and 2 of those 3 is a winner!
wa/dal game un 52.5 __ my stats say about 48 pts, which still gives me a 4 pt cushion
Pit/indy und 50 __ my stats indicate about 48 pts here too, but w/o Luck at qb its logical to lower this by about 4-7 pts and that is my cushion for another under

adding
steelers -3.5 -230 alt line

4-2 so far

sunday:
sd/hou ovr 46 __ i make this game between 44-56 pts
jax/buf ovr 44 __ bills more likely to score 30-36 themselves
buf tt ovr 27
ariz/atl ovr 49.5 __ my estimates r between 52 and 60 pts
miami tt ovr 26.5 __i figure they score either 27 or 28+ against a lightweight
nyg/clv und 45.5 __ my estimates r between 34 and 44 pts
clv tt und 18.5 __my best estimates for the browns r only 13-18 pts

finally, a good day
after my foolish college parlay-debacle on saturday
pros 10-3 this week

phil_abuster · 11-28-16, 05:49 PM

the packers as a team r having issues and i believe it is injury related
lets consider this:
in their first 6 games they went 4-2 against a mixture of good, bad, and mediocre teams
4 were home games however, giving them an edge
they scored an avg of 24 pts; and an avg of 21 pts allowed

but the recent 4 games (when injuries were taking their toll, esp to the D)
they went 0-4, against a decent lineup, w/o any weak teams
and 3 of the 4 on the road (a disadvantage)
they actually scored MORE on avg! almost 27 pts avg
but w/ a depleted defense pack allowed a whopping 38 pts avg!

tonight at Eagles unfortunately it will b more of the same - another road game against a good opponent and likely a result similar to their recent 4 games

and yes, philly has a GOOD team despite their VERY deceptive 5-5 record!
lets not b fooled
4 of their losses - all on the road - were by only one possession and could have easily gone eagle's way, especially the ot loss in dallas. even if just 2 of those 4 close games had gone their way they would sport a 7-3 record now and b full value for it.
that, and the fact we should not overlook, 6 of their games were on the road and only 4 were home games!
they won all 4 home games

despite playing 2 more road games than home games,
eagles have played an overall tough lineup and
still managed +55 pt differential !!!!
a mediocre team couldnt accomplish that!
this contrasts w/packers,
who have played an even number of home and road games,
against a similar mix of teams,
but have achieved only -29 pt differential!

packers r -42 pt differential in 5 road games
eagles r +70 pt differential in ONLY 4 home games!!
after dispatching weakass cleveland 29-10,
they blewout Pittsburgh 34-3 (rothelisberger played full game!)
they whacked Minnesota 21-10 (vikings were undefeated 5-0 coming in!!)
they beat Atlanta 24-15 (a good falcons squad was 6-3 coming in!)

pack still suffering more significant injuries compared to eagles

of course anything can happen.
eagles r the better team but could bellyflop off the high board tonite
or multiple lucky turnovers could all bounce to the packers!
but coming off another ROAD loss, and now back home where they play like NFC champions this yr, and assuming that TURNOVERS will b about equal, its most likely eagles rebound and win by 7-14 pts (although i do feel for the hard luck packers)

eagles -4.5

phil_abuster · 11-28-16, 07:13 PM

eagles tt ovr 26 -120

phil_abuster · 11-28-16, 10:48 PM

Originally posted by phil_abuster

eagles -4.5

i've seen enough.
eagles doing a bellyflop off the high board tonite
live action buyback necessary to break even
pack up 2 scores early 4th Q 24-13
packers to win su on ML -550